22002255年年44月月2211日日--22002255年年44月月2255日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周中美关税战有缓和迹象推动风险偏好回升，A股延续反弹，黄金冲高回落，债市平稳运 行，全球股市普遍上涨。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要方面： 01 本周市场延续反弹，上半周上涨，下半周在指数点位接近修复4月7日跳空缺口时，市场有所 犹豫、走势震荡。基本面方面，A股上市公司一季报披露进入高峰期，对市场整体未形成显 著影响。流动性方面，沪深两市日均成交额近1.12万亿元，相比上周有明显提升。成交金额 的放大代表了流动性的恢复，对流动性反应敏感的小盘表现好于大盘，本周表现从高到低依 次为国证2000、中证1000、中证500、沪深300。从行业表现看，汽车、美容护理、基础 护工表现较好。今日中共中央政治局会议提出了系列宏观政策，要加紧实施更加积极有为的 宏观政策、适时降准降息等。 02 AA股股延延续续反反弹弹，，黄黄金金冲冲高高回回落落 债市方面，本周资金面均衡偏松，债券市场整体震荡为主。本周市场影响因素包括消息面、 债券供给和资金面。消息面较多，小作文传政治局会议地产政策以及美国表态降低对华关税 等， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decrease in risk aversion due to easing trade policies, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - As of April 25, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,330.2 per ounce, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.05% after reaching a high of $3,500 per ounce earlier in the week [1] - The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease of 6.02 tons, bringing its total to 946.27 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warehouse receipts fell by 30 kilograms [1] Group 2 - The analysis from Dongwu Securities highlights a recovery in market risk appetite following the easing of trade tensions and a shift in President Trump's stance on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which has restored some credibility to the dollar [1] - The article notes that despite the recent pullback in gold prices, the fundamentals supporting the current gold bull market remain intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities after price corrections [1]

★风险提示： [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 贵 金 属 伦敦金跌 0.2%至 3319 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.23%，通胀 预期升至 2.27%，实际利率降至 1.96%，美元指数涨 0.24%至 99.4， 标普 500 指数涨 4.59%，人民币小涨，内外维持溢价。 国际金价波动加大，周中一度冲高至 3500 美元/盎司创历史新高， 随后多头资金获利了结，金价高位回落最终收跌。4 月以来的强 势上涨国内资金发挥的力量较大，上周叠加 5 月黄金期权到期， 末日轮的炒作也放大了市场波动，国内黄金 ETF 及两融余额、期 货市场以及现货市场均出现资金流入，助推了本轮黄金上涨行情， 关税问题是主要的触发因素。在特朗普政府表示中美之间的巨额 关税无法持续，后续会通过谈判降低一部分极端关税后，市场的 避险情绪有所降温。同时，特朗普表示无意解雇鲍威尔，要求降 低利率，也缓解了市场对美联储独立性受到干预的担忧，美元指 数和美股美债均出现反弹，美元崩溃论也暂时告一段落。 经济数据显示关税施压经济前景，4 月美国制造业 PMI 从 50.2 回 升至 50.7，好于预期的 49.1，但服务业 P ...

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced significant volatility this week, with fluctuations of nearly $100 during trading sessions, driven by heightened risk aversion amid trade tensions, pushing prices above $3500 at one point [1] - As of Friday, April 25, gold closed at $3318.62 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.93% [1] - The U.S. dollar faced pressure, dropping to a new low of 97.92, following criticism from Trump towards Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but later rebounded above 99, struggling to break the 100 mark [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve indicated that commercial real estate prices, a concern post-COVID-19, are showing signs of stabilization despite low liquidity in the stock and bond markets in early April [2] - The U.S. banking system remains robust and resilient, with strong capital adequacy ratios across institutions, although there is an increase in credit commitments to less-regulated non-bank entities [2] - The Federal Reserve warned that hedge fund leverage, particularly among large institutions, has reached or is near historical highs, but noted a decrease in leverage as funds began to unwind positions in early April [2]

Core Viewpoint - This week, gold prices experienced significant volatility, largely influenced by President Trump's fluctuating criticisms of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with Trump warning that the U.S. economy could slow down unless interest rates are lowered immediately [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Spot gold fell nearly 1% on Friday, closing at 3316.26, despite ending the week above 3300, indicating a week of dramatic price swings with intraday fluctuations nearing 100 dollars [1] - Gold prices surged above 3500 due to heightened risk aversion amid trade tensions, but dropped to around 3260 after Trump softened his stance on tariffs, leading investors to take profits [1] - Year-to-date, gold has risen over 25%, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty and volatility [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, noted that the easing of tariff tensions negatively impacted gold prices, yet there has not been a large-scale liquidation of positions, with investors continuing to buy on dips [1] - The current weekly gold chart shows a doji candlestick pattern, indicating indecision, with expectations of high volatility continuing [1] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at 3375 and 3353, while support is seen around 3305, suggesting that the market remains in a bearish trend despite a longer-term bullish outlook [1]

记得4天之前，川大还说对华关税过大，影响了中美的贸易，之后市场传闻相关版本的分级方案，市场还一度将这个消息当成了利好， 美股也因此而出现了大幅度反弹。 结果从昨天晚上开始，另外一个新的版本出来了，川大在专机上对记者表示，除非中国做出实质性让步，否则不会取消对华加征的关 税，这就给人感觉像是一场闹剧一样，前面说过的话，还没几天，说变卦就变卦了，这个时候对美股的投资者来说实在是揪心，没成 想美股刚刚反弹就遭遇了这样的消息。 从这个最新的回应看，一夜之间，一切又让人揪心起来，所以下周一的美股还是A股又将遭遇考验了。 还有一个消息，就是美银发出了警告，美股上涨只是暂时的，加上高盛的报告中指出，外国投资者已经悄然抛售了630亿美元的美股， 这个数量虽然不算大，然而摩根大通周五的的调查则显示，美股将是今年资金流出最多的资产，最被看好的资产会是现金。 结合这个消息，再看看上面川大一夜之间的反水，很容易得出的结论是，今年的美股将会和过去不大一样，虽然说弹性实足，但是不 确定性应该是历史上最高的一次，这种不确定性如果仅仅是经济层面，我想以美元的地位是完全可以平稳度过的，可是如果是政策上 的不确定性，会让更多的资金感受到风险，这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing high volatility influenced by both fundamental and technical factors, with short-term pressures from reduced risk aversion and potential support levels being tested [3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices have significantly dropped, currently around $3277.84 per ounce, with a decline of nearly $100 during the day [1]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3282 and $3167, with a potential further decline to around $3100 if these levels are breached [3]. - The market is in a consolidation phase after a rapid increase, with short-term downward pressure but long-term support from safe-haven demand and fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The highest price for gold today was $3386, while the lowest was $3260, indicating a drop of 126 points [3]. - The daily chart suggests a potential closing below the opening price of $3320, with a focus on whether the lower shadow can extend further down [5]. - Key resistance levels are at $3315 and $3340, with a recommendation to consider short positions around $3310, while support is noted at $3228 to $3245 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management market experienced a significant decline in scale at the end of Q1 2025, primarily due to various factors including adjustments in the bond market and seasonal financial management practices, but showed signs of recovery in April 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Scale and Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total scale of banking wealth management products was 29.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 810 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [1][2]. - The number of existing products in the market reached 40,600, an increase of 0.67% year-on-year, while the scale increased by 9.41% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in scale was primarily observed in March 2025, influenced by factors such as delayed expectations for interest rate cuts, the "seesaw" effect between stocks and bonds, and seasonal deposit assessments [2][3]. Group 2: Product Types and Trends - Fixed income products accounted for 97.22% of the total wealth management product scale, with a decline of approximately 820 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [3]. - Cash management products and non-cash pure bond products experienced the most significant reductions, with cash products decreasing by nearly 400 billion yuan in March alone [3]. - Conversely, equity products showed growth, with an increase of about 200 billion yuan, reaching a scale of approximately 80 billion yuan by the end of March [3]. Group 3: Recovery and Future Outlook - In April 2025, the wealth management scale rebounded, with an increase of approximately 320 billion yuan in the third week of April [4][5]. - The reduction in deposit rates by various banks is expected to drive more funds into wealth management products, as the average annualized yield for these products rose to 2.56% in March 2025 [5]. - The asset allocation in wealth management products showed a decline in cash and bank deposits, indicating a shift in investment strategies [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - The banking wealth management sector is currently benefiting from heightened risk aversion in the market, generating a total return of 206 billion yuan for investors in Q1 2025 [6]. - There is a growing concern regarding the short-term nature of funding sources for wealth management products, with a trend towards shorter product durations and a preference for low-risk products [6]. - Investment strategies are being adjusted to focus on risk management, with recommendations to prioritize deposits and short to medium-term credit bonds [7].

此外，随着美国总统特朗普和财政部长贝森特先后在贸易谈判方面释放乐观信号，美元指数延续反弹 ，美债收益率涨跌不一，避险情绪回落和美元走高导致现货黄金暴跌逾100美元。 从技术上看，昨日金价向上测试周内第一阻力3392美元／盎司附近后受阻回落，至本周多空分水岭3293 美元／盎司附近展开争夺，最后重新回到分水岭上方，暂时缓解了下行的压力。但要注意到的是，虽然 金价连续两个交易日回调，但从空间上看还不是特别充分。日内走势来看，上行方面，金价上方阻力继 续关注3392美元／盎司附近，若金价有效突破该位置，阻力调整至3457美元／盎司附近。下行方面，本 周多空分水岭3293美元／盎司成为当前金价下方的第一支撑。若金价有效跌破该位置，支撑则调整至 3228美元／盎司。 新华财经北京4月24日电近两个交易日，随着特朗普"改口"推动风险资产情绪回暖，国际金价在获利了 结打压下自历史高点大幅回落。需要注意到的是，尽管金价近两日回调幅度较为明显，但从空间上看， 调整还不是特别充分。不过，阶段金价波动剧烈，短时操作难度较大。 基本面方面，美联储发布的经济状况褐皮书显示，自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变化，但国际贸 易政策的不确定 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver is currently experiencing a period of consolidation around the $32.5 mark, contrasting sharply with gold's recent record highs, amid a backdrop of a weak dollar and high policy uncertainty [2] Group 1: Technical Analysis - Silver is oscillating within a narrow range between the support level of $32.40 and the resistance level of $32.80, with MACD indicators showing weak short-term momentum (DIFF=-0.027, DEA=-0.017) and RSI at 47.32 indicating a neutral stance [3] - A "double top" pattern has formed as silver failed to break the $33 mark twice, and a drop below $32.20 could trigger technical selling, potentially leading to a decline towards the $32 support level [3] - The daily chart indicates a more complex situation, with a significant selling pressure at high levels, and the price between $32 and $33 acting as a "watershed" for bulls and bears [3] Group 2: Dollar and Policy Variables - The policy divergence between Trump and Fed Chairman Powell is a core variable affecting silver, with their public disputes over interest rate cuts putting pressure on the dollar index, thereby increasing the attractiveness of silver priced in dollars [4] - Despite rising concerns about trade uncertainties, the recent statement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin about easing trade tensions has led to a significant drop in gold prices, raising questions about silver's potential reaction [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The precious metals market is currently characterized by a "gold leads, silver lags" dynamic, with gold benefiting from central bank purchases and ETF inflows, while silver's follow-through effect remains limited [6] - Silver's volatility is typically higher than gold, suggesting that its delayed response could lead to explosive movements once key price levels are breached [6] - Despite a drop in U.S. stocks, gold has not experienced a significant sell-off, indicating that safe-haven funds are still flowing into precious metals, which could eventually benefit silver if sentiment shifts [6] Group 4: Key Challenges and Opportunities - For bulls, breaking through the $33 mark requires overcoming three significant obstacles, while bears need to be cautious of two major risks [8] - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that despite short-term volatility, silver retains medium to long-term upward momentum due to recession risks and de-dollarization trends, suggesting investors should watch for opportunities around the $32 support level [8] - The current consolidation at $32.5 is a battleground for both bulls and bears, with the strength of defense at $32 and the breakthrough potential at $33 determining the future price trajectory of silver [8]