Economics Unchained首席经济学家斯蒂芬•哈尔马利克表示，自上世纪90年代初以来，央行的独立性一 直是全球金融体系的基石之一，因此削弱美联储独立性的尝试令人担忧。如果美联储理事库克被解职 后，新理事的任命将直接受总统的指示，这将不会受到金融市场的欢迎，反而可能导致债券收益率上 升，而债券收益率对美国政府债务的管理至关重要 ...

Core Points - President Donald Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa D. Cook on August 25, 2023 [1] - Trump cited constitutional authority and alleged mortgage fraud by Cook as reasons for her dismissal [3][5] - Cook is the first Black woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board [8] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Board Composition - The current members of the Federal Reserve Board include Jerome Powell (Chair), Philip Jefferson (Vice Chair), Michelle Bowman (Vice Chair), Michael Barr, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, and newly nominated Stephen Milan [2] Allegations Against Lisa Cook - Trump accused Cook of committing mortgage fraud by designating two different properties as her primary residence [5] - Bill Pulte, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, publicly accused Cook of mortgage fraud and referred the matter to the Justice Department [6] Political Implications - Trump's actions raise questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve [10] - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he could nominate her successor, potentially reshaping the Federal Reserve Board [8][9] - The situation may lead to a legal conflict that could escalate to the Supreme Court [11] Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, and the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note decreased by 4 basis points [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa D. Cook by former President Donald Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and potential legal conflicts arising from this action [2][8][9]. Summary by Sections Dismissal Announcement - Donald Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Lisa D. Cook from the Federal Reserve Board, citing constitutional authority [2][4]. - Cook was accused of mortgage fraud related to her claims about her primary residence [5]. Background on Lisa D. Cook - Cook was nominated by former President Biden and is noted as the first Black woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board [7]. - Trump's previous appointments to the Federal Reserve include Jerome Powell as Chairman and other current members [3][7]. Legal and Political Implications - Trump's actions could lead to a reshaping of the Federal Reserve's management, as he would have the opportunity to nominate Cook's successor [7]. - The legality of Trump's dismissal is questioned, as the Federal Reserve Act limits the President's power to remove board members without just cause [6]. Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, and the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note decreased by 4 basis points, indicating market sensitivity to Federal Reserve leadership changes [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following President Trump's decision to remove Lisa Cook from the Board of Governors, which has led to a sell-off of the US dollar and a strengthening of safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen [1] - Following Trump's action, the dollar has depreciated, with the dollar to Swiss franc exchange rate falling by 0.4% to 0.8030 and the dollar to Japanese yen rate declining by 0.5% to 147.07 [1] - Gold prices have increased by 0.4%, reaching $3,379.38 per ounce, indicating a shift towards safe-haven investments amid the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence [1]

百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，美联储已经开始褪去独立性的标签，这将大大损害美元的信用，对美元和美联储的伤害是长期性的。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，上升动能有走弱迹象。1小时周期形成双顶下破，短线若不能收复3361美元一线，则短期上涨结构可能被破坏，会下滑至3335 美元一线。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 隔夜油价出现小幅反弹，但力度和持续性一般，只能视为反弹，并未改变下行走势。短期内投资者可关注欧洲与伊朗的谈判，若谈判顺利，油价可能雪上加 霜。 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃宣布，伊朗与英法德三国26日将在瑞士日内瓦就伊核问题等举行会谈。此次副外长级别的会谈是伊朗外长22日与英法德三国外长和 欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表通话的后续行动。会谈讨论解除制裁和核问题、联合国安理会第2231号决议及其未来走向。 前期美国对俄罗斯原油第三方买家提出制裁，可能威胁到了欧洲的原油进口安全，欧洲此举可能是为拓展原油进口渠道。若谈判顺利，短期内伊朗有提高产 能和出口量的潜能，伊朗剩余产能至少有40万桶/日。 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金以横盘调整为主，自鲍威尔全面转向鸽派后，黄金短期上涨动能走强，但也要谨防利多消息被消化耗尽的可能。 本次鲍 ...

Core Points - Trump's unprecedented move to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has shaken financial markets, leading to declines in U.S. stock index futures and a rise in safe-haven assets like the yen and gold [1][2][3] - If successful, this action could allow Trump to gain a majority on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board, fundamentally reshaping the Fed's structure [1][5] - Legal experts note that while the President has the authority to dismiss a Fed governor, it requires substantial evidence of misconduct rather than political motives [3][4] Summary by Sections Trump's Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Lisa Cook, citing alleged fraudulent and potentially criminal behavior that undermines her credibility as a regulator [2][3] - The dismissal could set a historical precedent, as no sitting Fed governor has ever been removed by a president before [3][4] Implications for the Federal Reserve - Analysts suggest that if Cook is removed, Trump could appoint a fourth member to the Fed Board, achieving a majority and potentially altering the Fed's decision-making process [1][5] - Trump's previous appointments and recent nominations indicate a strategic plan to control the Fed, which could disrupt decades of independence [5] Legal Considerations - The Federal Reserve Act allows for the dismissal of governors for cause, but requires clear evidence of wrongdoing, which has not yet been established in Cook's case [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises significant concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a reshaping of its board with Trump loyalists [1][2][3] Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - President Trump announced the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, claiming constitutional authority to do so, which has sparked debates about the Fed's independence [1] - Cook was accused of mortgage fraud related to her property declarations, which Trump cited as the reason for her dismissal [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice is set to investigate Cook for the alleged mortgage fraud, while she has refused to resign under pressure [1] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve - Trump's actions may lead to a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, allowing him to appoint officials who align with his views on interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, with Trump having appointed several during his first term, potentially influencing the board's stance on monetary policy [2] - The potential for a legal battle over Cook's dismissal could further complicate the situation, as she may remain in her position during the proceedings [1][3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Cook's dismissal, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.2%, while gold prices increased by 0.4%, indicating market sensitivity to changes in Federal Reserve governance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump signifies a significant escalation in his attack on the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a legal confrontation that could reach the Supreme Court [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified following Trump's actions, with the dollar index dropping nearly 30 points to 98.19 and spot gold rising over $20 to $3378.85 per ounce [2]. - Trump's administration claims that Cook is involved in mortgage fraud, which they argue undermines her integrity and ability to serve [4][10]. Group 2: Legal and Political Implications - The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 restricts the President's power to unilaterally dismiss a Federal Reserve Governor, requiring sufficient cause for such actions [4]. - Trump's decision to remove Cook could lead to a legal battle, with the possibility of the Supreme Court intervening if a judge allows Cook to continue serving during legal proceedings [5][6]. Group 3: Future of Federal Reserve Board - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he will have the opportunity to nominate a replacement, potentially reshaping the composition of the Federal Reserve Board in the coming years [5][6]. - Currently, two of the seven Federal Reserve Governors were appointed by Trump, indicating a growing influence over the board [6].

美国总统特朗普签署行政令罢免美联储理事库克，美元因对美联储独立性的进一步持续冲击而下跌。在 外汇市场上，非美货币对美元汇率大幅上涨，与此同时， 黄金价格也在飙升。特朗普正竭尽全力促使 美联储降息。如果成功解雇库克，他会试图用一个"应声虫"取代库克，此人会对特朗普言听计从。而特 朗普此举如果真的成功，也将使得特朗普提名的理事在美联储理事会占据多数席位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent $1.39 trillion trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, while appearing to be a significant victory for the U.S., reveals underlying challenges and potential weaknesses in the U.S. dollar's dominance in global markets [1][3]. Trade Agreement Details - The agreement includes commitments from the EU to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products and $400 billion in AI chips by 2028, along with an additional $600 billion in investments from European companies into U.S. strategic sectors [1]. - However, the actual projected energy imports from the EU to the U.S. for 2024 are only $64.55 billion, falling significantly short of the annual target of $250 billion [1]. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on EU automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, while the EU will eliminate tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods, with a 15% cap on tariffs for key products like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [3]. - Economists criticize this as a superficial exchange, suggesting that the EU is making significant concessions without receiving equivalent benefits [3]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Following the trade agreement, President Trump nominated Stephen Milan, a proponent of weakening the dollar, to the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy [3][4]. - The market reacted strongly, with a 91.1% probability of a rate cut by September indicated in federal funds futures, leading to a decline in the dollar index [3]. Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - Tensions within the Federal Reserve are escalating, with Trump pressuring for the removal of Biden-appointed board members, which could result in a majority of Trump-aligned members on the board [4]. - Milan's proposals for reforming the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, potentially leading to a repeat of past economic crises [5]. Global Market Reactions - The potential loss of independence for the Federal Reserve has raised alarms in global markets, with warnings from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the IMF about the risks of politicizing central banks [5]. - A decline in the dollar's credibility could lead to a sell-off, increasing the attractiveness of gold and other currencies, while also distorting trade flows due to high tariffs [5]. Economic Philosophies Clash - The trade agreement reflects a clash between the U.S.'s unilateral approach under Trump and China's multilateral "Belt and Road" initiative, with implications for global supply chains [7]. - Short-term benefits may arise for risk assets, but long-term consequences could include rising inflation and economic friction with the EU and Switzerland over the U.S.'s weak dollar strategy [7].