摘要周二(6月10日)纽约交易时段，现货黄金上演"高台跳水"行情，金价自高点大幅回落约30美元， FXStreet首席分析师ValeriaBednarik写道，因投资者对中美之间可能达成的贸易协议持乐观态度，金价 从3350美元/盎司附近回落，可能会重新测试3300美元/盎司关口。 周二(6月10日)纽约交易时段，现货黄金上演"高台跳水"行情，金价自高点大幅回落约30美元，FXStreet 首席分析师Valeria Bednarik写道，因投资者对中美之间可能达成的贸易协议持乐观态度，金价从3350美 元/盎司附近回落，可能会重新测试3300美元/盎司关口。 中美贸易谈判方面，美国商务部长卢特尼克周二表示，谈判进展"非常、非常顺利"。他表示，希望谈判 能在周二晚结束，但如果有必要，周三将继续进行。 卢特尼克在伦敦兰卡斯特宫对记者说："我认为谈判进展非常、非常顺利。我们投入了大量的时间、精 力和精力——每个人都埋头苦干，密切合作。"两国团队已在这里进行了为期两天的会谈。 卢特尼克补充道："我希望谈判今晚结束，但如果需要的话，我们明天还会来，但我希望谈判今晚结 束。" High Ridge Futures金属交易 ...

黄金、白银行情爆发中，一键布局买入金银等避险资产>>> 纽约期金向上触及3350美元/盎司，日内涨0.20%。 ...

在全球地缘政治局势方面，紧张局势仍在持续发酵。乌克兰方面宣称，俄罗斯发动了大规模空袭，这一事件对市场风险情绪构成了潜在扰动。在地缘政治冲 突不断升级的背景下，黄金作为传统的避险资产，其吸引力本应显著增强。然而，当前市场风险偏好因贸易谈判的乐观预期而有所改善，使得黄金的避险需 求在短期内未得到充分释放。但一旦地缘政治冲突进一步恶化，突破当前市场预期的范围，黄金价格可能会迅速获得强劲的上涨动力。 一位长期关注大宗商品领域的分析师指出："从近期黄金价格走势来看，其未能有效向上突破200小时均线，这一现象深刻反映出多头动能的不足。基于此， 短期内黄金价格倾向于进行整理，甚至存在进一步调整的可能性。"当前，黄金市场的走势受到多种复杂因素的综合影响，其中美联储未来的政策路径充满 不确定性，这在一定程度上限制了黄金价格的下跌空间。尽管此前公布的强劲就业数据在短期内对黄金价格构成利空，但CMEFedWatch工具所呈现的数据 显示，市场对于美联储在9月实施降息的概率预期仍然接近60%。这种对未来货币政策宽松的预期，使得投资者在一定程度上对黄金价格的下行持有谨慎态 度，为黄金价格提供了潜在支撑。 此外，美国长期存在的财政赤字问 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have reached a nearly 13-year high, with London spot silver surpassing $36 per ounce on June 6, marking the highest level since February 2012, and a weekly increase of over 10% [1] - The Shanghai silver futures contract also saw a significant rise, exceeding 8800 yuan per kilogram, setting a new record since its listing [1] - In contrast, the spot gold price saw a modest increase of approximately 0.6% over the past week [1] Group 2 - The appeal of precious metals, including silver, as traditional safe-haven assets has increased due to escalating trade tensions, rising dollar outflows, and heightened economic uncertainty [4] - Industrial demand for silver is a crucial factor driving its price increase, with applications in electronics, photovoltaic industries, and new energy vehicles [7] - In 2023, China's industrial silver demand reached 8124 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 44%, making it the largest industrial silver consumer globally [7] Group 3 - The supply of silver from mining is limited, leading to a tight market balance as industrial demand continues to grow [8] - The market perceives silver to be significantly undervalued relative to gold, with expectations for the gold-silver ratio to revert, contributing to silver's price recovery [8]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance Overnight - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures flat at $3,346.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.12% at $36.91 per ounce [2] - International oil prices strengthened, with the U.S. oil main contract up 1.24% at $65.38 per barrel and the Brent crude main contract up 0.96% at $67.11 per barrel [3] - London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper up 1.03% at $9,769.02 per ton and LME nickel down 0.76% at $15,325.9 per ton [4] - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed. Styrene (EB) rose more than 1%, while coking coal fell more than 2% [4] - U.S. agricultural product futures fell across the board, with CBOT corn futures down 2.15%, CBOT wheat futures down 2.25%, and CBOT soybean futures down 0.12% [4] 2. Macroeconomic News - As of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1,622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period [7] - Citigroup postponed its forecast for the Fed's next rate cut from July to September and now expects a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year [7] - In the first five months, China's imports of iron ore decreased by 5.2%, crude oil increased by 0.3%, coal decreased by 7.9%, natural gas decreased by 9.5%, soybeans decreased by 0.7%, and refined oil decreased by 26.8% [7] - In May 2025, China's CPI was down 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [8] - On June 9, the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London [9] - California Governor Gavin Newsom said he would sue the Trump administration over the National Guard deployment issue [9] 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - The local quotation of photovoltaic glass in the market has fallen below 12 yuan per square meter, with the lowest transaction price approaching 11.5 yuan per square meter [13] - As of June 6, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 3.39 million cubic meters, down 0.59% from the previous week [13] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, down 0.67% from the previous period [13] - Morgan Stanley said OPEC+ may be significantly increasing oil production quotas, but the actual output increase is not obvious [13] - The U.S. Bank's commodities research head said OPEC+'s oil production increase plan is part of Saudi Arabia's strategy to start a long - term but moderate price war [13] - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said the U.S. plan on the Iran nuclear deal is unacceptable [14] 4. Metal Futures - The listing benchmark prices for casting aluminum alloy futures contracts AD2511 - AD2605 are set at 18,365 yuan per ton [18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of high market volatility and advised members and investors to take risk - prevention measures [18] - China's lithium hydroxide production in June 2025 is expected to be 20,200 tons, down 5.8% month - on - month [19] 5. Black - series Futures - Mysteel's global iron ore shipments totaled 3.5104 million tons, up 79,400 tons week - on - week [21] - China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals totaled 2.6739 million tons, up 76,500 tons week - on - week [21] - As of the week of June 6, the total manganese ore inventory at ports was 420,200 tons, up 13,200 tons from the previous period [21] 6. Agricultural Product Futures - The central government will conduct a 10,000 - ton centralized procurement of frozen pork on June 11, 2025 [25] - As of June 6, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 812,700 tons, up 7.66% week - on - week [25] - Analysts expect Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production to be 169.27 million tons and Argentina's to be 4.904 million tons [25] - With the arrival of imported soybeans, the soybean commercial inventory of major oil mills has reached nearly 7 million tons [26] - APK - Inform lowered its forecast for Ukraine's 2025 grain production by 4.3% to 52.9 million tons [27] - As of June 9, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.9568 million tons, up 215,970 tons from June 3 [28] - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers in the central - southern region had harvested 1.9% of the 2025 second - season corn, the slowest pace since 2021 [28] - In the week ending June 5, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, and the U.S. shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China [31] - As of June 8, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [31] 7. Financial Markets Commodities - The first recycled metal variety, casting aluminum alloy futures and options, was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 10, with the benchmark price for 7 contracts set at 18,365 yuan per ton [33] Bonds - Domestic inter - bank bond yields were mixed, and the central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection [36] - Japan is considering repurchasing some long - term bonds, and Japanese investors sold a large amount of German and U.S. sovereign bonds in April [36] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board due to concerns about bond auctions, supply - demand adjustments, and investor sentiment [37] - European bond yields generally declined due to weak economic fundamentals in the eurozone [37] Foreign Exchange - Hong Kong will maintain the linked exchange rate system and strengthen its role as an offshore RMB business center [38] - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1838 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, up 9 basis points from the previous trading day [38] - The three major RMB exchange rate indices fell last week, hitting new lows [41] - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.19% at the New York close, and non - U.S. currencies generally rose [41] 8. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released include South Korea's April current account, the U.K.'s May unemployment rate, etc. [44] - Key events include China's central bank's reverse repurchase maturity, EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report, and various conferences and corporate events [46]

周二(6月10日)黄金价格小幅下跌，再度逼近3300支撑位，投资者密切关注中美贸易谈判的进展——双 方都表示愿意作出让步。 在经历周一上涨0.5%后，现货金价格在3320美元附近波动。来自世界两大经济体的代表在伦敦结束首 日谈判。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，会谈"应该进行得很顺利"。 贸易紧张局势的缓解可能会提振美元，并打压以美元计价的大宗商品价格。道明证券大宗商品策略主管 Bart Melek表示："短期来看，如果会议产生积极结果，可能对黄金有一点负面影响，但不会太大。" 铂金在经历上周10%的大涨后，周一盘中一度飙升4.7%，目前维持高位，接近2021年5月以来的最高水 平。市场普遍预期白金供应紧张。此外，黄金年内累计上涨超过25%，这种看涨情绪也对其他贵金属形 成了溢出效应。 美国银行大宗商品与衍生品研究主管Francisco Blanch表示："要想金价真正突破当前区间，我们需要一 个真正的冲击事件。"该行预计金价最终将升至4000美元，但可能要到2026年才会实现。 今年，全球贸易紧张局势引发的不确定性动摇市场，也增强了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。尽管金价近 期涨势有所放缓，但围绕美国关税政策对经济影 ...

上海黄金交易所（简称：上金所）9日发布通知，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，合理控制仓位。值得注意 的是，当天黄金现货和期货都出现了1%的跌幅。 美国市场交易所的白银ETF基金出现显著资金流入，上周四持仓量单日增加220万盎司。国内唯一商品型白银 主题LOF— 国投白银LOF（161226） 6月至今已经上涨超10%，年内涨幅近19%。 但是根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的最新持仓报告来看，在经过5月份调整之后，黄金和白银净多头 寸，都出现了大幅增加。而随着中美代表团本周在伦敦开展新一轮谈判，投资者都在屏息等待答案，加大了对 市场不确定的押注。 上金所年内第六次提示风险 6月9日，上海黄金交易所发布《关于做好近期市场风险控制工作的通知》称，近期影响市场不稳定的因素较 多，贵金属价格波动剧烈。请各会员提高风险防范意识，继续做好风险应急预案，维护市场平稳运行。同时， 提示投资者做好风险防范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投资。 今年以来，上海黄金交易所已经连续6次明确发布风险提示或加强风险防控的通知。其中，4月最为密集，1个 月内发布3次提示（4月3日、10日、21日），反映当月市场波动剧烈程度，当月盘中国际现货黄金 ...

周一（6月9日）亚欧时段，现货黄金探底回升，寄望晚些时候的中美贸易谈判可能缓解两国的紧张关系，早些时候金价一度失守3300关口至3293.66美元/盎 司，为近一周新低，但避险买盘和逢低买盘依然给金价提供支撑，目前金价回升至3320上方，一度上涨0.55%至3328.43美元/盎司，目前交投于3323.67美元/ 盎司附近。 消息面解读：俄乌冲突的升级无疑加剧了全球地缘政治风险，而黄金作为传统的避险资产，通常在这种不确定性上升的背景下受到市场青睐。俄罗斯军队的 持续推进以及双方在人道问题上的争执，可能进一步动摇投资者对全球经济稳定的信心，从而推高对黄金的需求。此外，乌克兰对俄罗斯关键设施的袭击可 能引发能源和供应链的进一步波动，这也将间接支撑金价。然而，若冲突短期内出现缓和迹象或国际社会介入促成谈判突破，避险情绪可能降温，金价或面 临回调压力。总体来看，短期内金价可能因地缘风险升温而保持上涨势头，但投资者需密切关注战事进展、国际贸易局势和全球宏观经济动态。 黄金走势分析：目前在日线走势上虽金价暂时维持在高位的震荡，一波大幅下跌之后K线开始逐步承压短周期均线维持偏弱走势，价格在前期的支撑带附近 没有走出太大的反 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the influence on demand and inflation continued to show in May. Despite recent weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies maintain stability, focusing on utilizing existing resources in the short term. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to remain resilient, but export and price data may face pressure due to trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The adverse effects of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April are evident. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. In April, the trade deficit was $616.2 billion, with imports significantly decreasing. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" indicated a slight decline in economic activity and a "somewhat pessimistic and uncertain" economic outlook. However, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth reduced market expectations of Fed rate cuts. It is predicted that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - **Domestic**: Policies remain stable, with a short - term focus on using existing resources. Manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to be resilient, but export and price data may face pressure due to trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - **Asset Views**: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro** - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [8]. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, economic growth expectations have improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [8]. **Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market is stable, and cautious covered call strategies are recommended. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [8]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. **Black Building Materials** - **Steel**: Demand continued to decline, and the market was mainly range - bound. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot - metal production decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic hot - metal production, weather conditions, port ore inventories, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts has started, and market sentiment has cooled down. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The trading atmosphere was light, and upstream inventories continued to accumulate. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Demand expectations were poor, and the market was under pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment was cautious, and the market was in a low - level range. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply rumors have caused upstream inventories to accumulate. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is gradually recovering, and sentiment is affecting the market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventories [8]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: Inventories continued to accumulate, and copper prices were in a high - level range. The market is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [8]. - **Alumina**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the alumina market is in a high - level range. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Trade tensions have eased, and aluminum prices are in a strong - side range. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Zinc ingot inventories have decreased again, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Cost support still exists, and lead prices are fluctuating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are generally weak, and nickel prices are in a wide - range fluctuation. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices have rebounded slightly, and the market is fluctuating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: Inventories in both markets continued to decline, and tin prices are fluctuating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The approaching flood season is putting pressure on silicon prices. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have decreased slightly, and lithium prices have risen with reduced positions. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [11]. - **LPG**: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of LPG is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: Profits have continued to expand, and the downward pressure on asphalt futures prices has increased. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to unexpected demand [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices rose, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil decreased. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuate with crude oil. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Coal prices have stabilized, and the port basis has strengthened. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: The market is weak, waiting for the opportunity to rebound when agricultural demand is released. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to market transactions, policy trends, and demand realization [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. The market is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to ethylene glycol terminal demand [11]. - **PX**: PX prices declined due to polyester production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations and downstream device changes [11]. - **PTA**: PTA prices declined due to polyester production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to polyester production [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: Textile and clothing demand is less than expected, and the processing fee of short - fiber is compressed at a high - level of production. The market is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to terminal textile and clothing exports [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: High - level production has led to oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to future bottle - chip production [11]. - **PP**: Oil prices rebounded, and attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [11]. - **Plastic**: The raw - material end provides support, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [11]. - **Styrene**: The current situation is still poor, and styrene is in a weak - side fluctuation. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: Short - term sentiment has improved, and PVC has a weak rebound. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and it is recommended to short caustic soda. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. **Agriculture** - **Oils and Fats**: The increase in Malaysian palm oil production in May is expected to be limited, and market sentiment has stabilized. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices have declined, and the basis has weakened. The technical rebound of the market is expected to be limited. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The spot market is stable, and the market continues to rise. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather [11]. - **Pigs**: Supply has increased while demand is weak, and pig prices are weak. The market is expected to decline, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: There are no new variables, and the market has stabilized. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [11]. - **Pulp**: There is no major driving force for pulp, and the market is mainly range - bound. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [11]. - **Cotton**: Demand has weakened, and there is insufficient driving force for cotton prices. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand and production [11]. - **Sugar**: The new sugar - crushing season is expected to have sufficient supply, and the domestic market is driven down by the overseas market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to abnormal weather [11]. - **Timber**: Spot prices are weak, and the market is declining. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [11].

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report (2025.06.09 - 06.13) [2] - Report Scope: Gold and silver futures - Data Sources: Wind, MySteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [17][28][48] 1. Gold Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Gold is in a "safe - haven + interest rate cut expectation" dual - drive stage. In the short term, beware of market fluctuations due to data and policy changes. In the long - term, factors such as geopolitical risks, de - dollarization, and interest rate cut expectations support the gold price. Monitor the impact of US economic data on monetary policy and the progress of tariff policies [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Expected the gold main contract 2508 to fluctuate in the short term, recommended waiting and seeing. The lower support was 738 - 746, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Expected the gold main contract 2508 to fluctuate in the short term, recommended waiting and seeing. The lower support is 738 - 746, and the upper pressure is 800 - 808 [12] - AI Diagnosis: The daily trend is in a sideways phase, possibly in the middle of the trend according to historical cycle rules. The main funds show a significant bearish attitude, and the capital energy remains basically stable. The risk of a trend reversal is relatively high [13] 1.3 Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] 2. Silver Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: The recent upward breakthrough of silver is the result of the resonance of four factors: rotation of safe - haven assets, rigid growth of industrial demand, expectation of monetary policy shift, and technical breakthrough. The core driving forces are the structural demand from photovoltaic and new energy vehicles and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Tariff policy concerns and the weakening of the US dollar provide short - term boosts. In the long - term, silver prices are affected by multiple factors such as industrial demand, monetary policy, geopolitics, gold - silver ratio repair, and market sentiment. When allocating silver, pay attention to the development of the global new energy industry, Fed policy trends, geopolitical risks, and changes in the silver supply - demand pattern [32] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [35] 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Expected the silver contract 2508 to be relatively strong, with the lower support range at 8600 - 8800 [37] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Expected the silver contract 2508 to oscillate in a large range, recommended grid trading in the range of 7000 - 8800 [37] - AI Diagnosis: The overall trend is in an upward channel, possibly in the middle of the trend according to historical cycle rules. The main funds show a strong bullish sentiment, with a rapid influx of capital. The risk of a trend reversal is relatively high [38] 2.3 Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]