Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report (2025.06.09 - 06.13) [2] - Report Scope: Gold and silver futures - Data Sources: Wind, MySteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [17][28][48] 1. Gold Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Gold is in a "safe - haven + interest rate cut expectation" dual - drive stage. In the short term, beware of market fluctuations due to data and policy changes. In the long - term, factors such as geopolitical risks, de - dollarization, and interest rate cut expectations support the gold price. Monitor the impact of US economic data on monetary policy and the progress of tariff policies [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Expected the gold main contract 2508 to fluctuate in the short term, recommended waiting and seeing. The lower support was 738 - 746, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Expected the gold main contract 2508 to fluctuate in the short term, recommended waiting and seeing. The lower support is 738 - 746, and the upper pressure is 800 - 808 [12] - AI Diagnosis: The daily trend is in a sideways phase, possibly in the middle of the trend according to historical cycle rules. The main funds show a significant bearish attitude, and the capital energy remains basically stable. The risk of a trend reversal is relatively high [13] 1.3 Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] 2. Silver Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: The recent upward breakthrough of silver is the result of the resonance of four factors: rotation of safe - haven assets, rigid growth of industrial demand, expectation of monetary policy shift, and technical breakthrough. The core driving forces are the structural demand from photovoltaic and new energy vehicles and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Tariff policy concerns and the weakening of the US dollar provide short - term boosts. In the long - term, silver prices are affected by multiple factors such as industrial demand, monetary policy, geopolitics, gold - silver ratio repair, and market sentiment. When allocating silver, pay attention to the development of the global new energy industry, Fed policy trends, geopolitical risks, and changes in the silver supply - demand pattern [32] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [35] 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Expected the silver contract 2508 to be relatively strong, with the lower support range at 8600 - 8800 [37] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Expected the silver contract 2508 to oscillate in a large range, recommended grid trading in the range of 7000 - 8800 [37] - AI Diagnosis: The overall trend is in an upward channel, possibly in the middle of the trend according to historical cycle rules. The main funds show a strong bullish sentiment, with a rapid influx of capital. The risk of a trend reversal is relatively high [38] 2.3 Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry is experiencing fluctuations in stock prices and ETF performance, influenced by central bank gold reserves and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 9, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) decreased by 1.46%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1]. - Leading gainers included Xingye Silver (000426) up 2.66%, Mankalon (300945) up 2.33%, and Huayu Mining (601020) up 1.07% [1]. - Major decliners were Shandong Gold (01787) down 4.79%, Zhaojin Mining (01818) down 4.76%, and Laopu Gold (06181) down 2.88% [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) fell by 1.28%, with a latest price of 1.16 yuan, but saw a 3.71% increase over the past week as of June 6 [1]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The Gold Stock ETF had a turnover rate of 12.63% with a trading volume of 4.0828 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the Gold Stock ETF over the past week was 6.1523 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Central Bank Reserves - As of the end of May 2025, China's central bank gold reserves reached 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces, marking seven consecutive months of growth, totaling an increase of 1.03 million ounces [1]. - China ranks seventh globally in gold reserves, indicating a potential misalignment with its economic scale [1]. Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [4]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 68.91% of the total index weight, with Shandong Gold (600547) and Zijin Mining (601899) being the largest components [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is around $3316, having previously peaked at $3403, a four-week high, before retreating due to eased trade tensions between the US and China [1] - Silver prices have surpassed $35, reaching a 13-year high, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The market is focused on upcoming non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 17-18 to gauge short-term gold price movements [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold is in a consolidation phase with a narrowing Bollinger Band, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears [3] - The MACD shows a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI is around 55, suggesting intense market competition [3] - Key support is identified at $3300, with resistance levels at $3335-$3345 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices are stable around $65 per barrel, marking the first weekly rebound since mid-May, while WTI is near $63 [4] - The market's fear of panic selling has decreased as macroeconomic uncertainties ease, but the underlying support for oil prices remains fragile [4] - Future oil price trends will depend on OPEC+'s production decisions and market expectations of oversupply by year-end [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term trend for oil prices is downward, with a potential bearish flag pattern forming after hitting a low of $55.20 [5] - Short-term movements indicate a consolidation phase, with expectations of testing lower support levels around $63-$62 [5] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with key resistance at $66-$67 and support at $63-$62 [5]

交易行情热点 热点一：央行连续7个月增持黄金，释放什么信号？ 近期，黄金价格开启高位震荡行情，COMEX黄金周涨幅达-1.31%，收3331.0美元/盎司；伦敦金周涨幅 达-1.26%，收3309.7200美元/盎司。 21世纪经济报道记者 翁榕涛 实习生 赖桂筠 广州报道 周内（6月2日至6月6日），黄金价格高位震荡，贵金属表现强势，黑色系板块和集运欧线领跌，原油领 涨，而部分农产品受供需格局变化影响持续承压。这种"冰火两重天"的市场表现，折射出当前全球经济 复苏步伐不一、地缘政治因素扰动以及国内产业政策调整等多重复杂因素的交织影响。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周下跌0.10%、原油上涨1.71%、碳酸锂上涨0.23%；黑 色系板块，焦炭周下跌1.44%、焦煤下跌0.13%、铁矿石下跌0.56%；基本金属板块，沪金周下跌 1.09%、沪锌下跌0.38%、沪银上涨0.62%；农产品板块，生猪周下跌0.15%、棕榈油上涨0.07%、豆粕上 涨0.60%；航运板块，集运欧线周下跌4.35%。 花旗集团近期将黄金价格短期内的预测重新上调至每盎司3500美元，该机构表示，其核心逻辑在于美国 政府关税政 ...

央行增持黄金也受关注，中国5月末黄金储备环比增加6万盎司，为连续第7个月增持。然而，深圳水贝黄金珠宝市 场多位从业者表示，目前下游出货量未见显著增长，金价仍处高位，新款产品不多，从业者较为谨慎。 【环球网财经综合报道】美东时间6月6日，现货黄金价格下跌超1.2%，收报3309.47美元/盎司；6月7日，国内部 分品牌金饰金价重回每克1000元之下。不过，白银价格近期持续走高，本周现货白银价格累计上涨超9%，一度站 上36美元/盎司，为2012年2月以来首次，涨幅远超本周累计上涨约0.6%的现货黄金。 市场公开信息显示，美国银行预计到今年年底或2026年初，黄金价格将达每盎司4000美元，白银价格将达每盎司 40美元；花旗集团将黄金价格短期预测上调至每盎司3500美元，理由是美国关税政策升级及地缘政治风险加剧推 动避险资产走强。（陈十一） 分析人士指出，金银分化主要由金银比修复逻辑、白银特有属性及市场情绪共振驱动。近期金银价格比一度升至1 比100，远高于历史均值，暗示白银或被低估、黄金或被高估。且白银市场规模小，资金流入易引发更大波动。此 外，白银更受益于工业需求提振，市场担心贸易保护措施推升其避险和替代性需 ...

Core Insights - Precious metals have been a symbol of wealth and power throughout history, and they play a crucial role in various modern industries, including technology, healthcare, and electronics [1] Group 1: Characteristics of Precious Metals - Precious metals are defined as rare, high-density metals with significant economic value, including Ruthenium (Ru), Rhodium (Rh), Palladium (Pd), Osmium (Os), Iridium (Ir), Platinum (Pt), Silver (Ag), and Gold (Au) [1] - The abundance of these metals in the Earth's crust is extremely low, with concentrations measured in grams per ton: Silver 0.1, Palladium 0.01, Gold and Platinum 0.005, and Rhodium, Iridium, Ruthenium, Osmium 0.001 [1] - Silver excels in electrical and thermal conductivity, while Gold ranks third, and Platinum group metals are known for their thermal stability in electronic applications [3] - Gold and Silver possess exceptional malleability, with 1 gram of Gold capable of being drawn into a wire measuring 3420 meters [3] Group 2: Applications of Precious Metals - Precious metals are ideal for jewelry due to their aesthetic qualities, with Silver reflecting white light most effectively and Gold reflecting infrared light strongly [4] - The ability of precious metals to absorb gases like oxygen and hydrogen makes them valuable in catalytic reactions and gas purification processes [6] - Precious metals exhibit high corrosion resistance, with Iridium being the most resistant, making them suitable for use in harsh chemical environments [7] - Palladium catalysts can enhance organic reaction rates by up to 1 million times, playing a vital role in automotive emissions control and petroleum refining [9] Group 3: Industry Impact - In the electronics industry, Gold, Silver, and Platinum are used for their excellent conductivity and stability, with Gold ensuring stable electronic signal transmission [13] - Platinum and Palladium are increasingly in demand for automotive catalytic converters due to stricter environmental regulations [14] - In aerospace, precious metals are used in high-temperature alloys for critical engine components, capable of withstanding extreme conditions [15] - Precious metals are essential in the chemical industry for processes like nitric acid production and petroleum reforming, improving reaction efficiency and reducing costs [18] Group 4: Financial and Economic Role - Historically, Gold and Silver served as currency and continue to influence monetary value, with central banks holding significant Gold reserves to enhance currency credibility [19] - The precious metals market is vast, with Gold being the largest segment, and prices are influenced by various factors, including economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [21] - Platinum and Palladium prices are closely tied to the automotive industry, with demand driven by vehicle sales and environmental regulations [21] Group 5: Future Outlook - Precious metals are positioned as key players in future technological advancements and sustainable development, serving as catalysts in energy and life sciences [22]

Group 1 - Renowned strategist Hong Hao has resigned as CEO of Huafu International (Hong Kong) Financial Holdings Limited to focus on independent research and hedge fund management, taking on the role of managing partner and CIO at Lianhua Asset Management [1] - Hong Hao has a notable background, having served as a partner and chief economist at Sire Group, head of research at CMB International, and chief global strategist at CICC, with experience in major international financial institutions [1] - Huafu International is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huafu Securities, having obtained multiple licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and is involved in wealth management, corporate financing, and asset management [2] Group 2 - Hong Hao's brief tenure as CEO of Huafu International lasted only two months, marking his return to a sell-side institution after three years [2] - He has gained attention for his views on market trends, notably his early identification of the "East Rising, West Falling" narrative, predicting a decline in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds as safe-haven assets [2] - Hong Hao believes that the A-share market's performance has aligned with safe-haven assets like gold and silver since September last year, with increased liquidity in the Hong Kong market potentially leading to a peak in the second half of the year [3]

Core Insights - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $3.6 billion to $328.53 billion, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, although the increase was significantly lower than the previous month's $41 billion rise [3] - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to a combination of exchange rate adjustments and asset price changes, with non-USD currencies contributing positively while bond prices declined [3] - China's gold reserves reached 73.83 million ounces, marking a net increase for the seventh consecutive month, despite a slight decrease in the proportion of gold reserves relative to total foreign reserves [5][6] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves stood at $328.53 billion as of May, reflecting a $3.6 billion increase from April [3] - The increase was primarily driven by the appreciation of non-USD currencies and fluctuations in global asset prices, with the dollar index showing a slight decline [3] - The average daily trading volume in the domestic foreign exchange market reached $47.8 billion, a 13% increase month-on-month, indicating heightened trading activity [4] Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves increased by 60,000 ounces to 73.83 million ounces, with a total value of approximately $241.99 billion, accounting for 7.37% of total foreign reserves [5] - The gold price experienced a decline of 0.7% in May, marking the first monthly drop in five months, influenced by macroeconomic factors [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the central bank's continued accumulation of gold is a strategic move to enhance the credibility of the national currency and support the internationalization of the renminbi [6]

【导读】5月外汇储备规模环比上升0.11%，央行连续7个月增持黄金 与此同时，央行公布数据显示，中国5月末黄金储备为7383万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，为连续第7个月增持黄金。 外汇储备规模环比上升0.11% 继续稳定在3.2万亿美元以上 国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末上升36亿美元，升幅为0.11%。 中国基金报记者 晨曦 最新重磅数据来了！ 6月7日，国家外汇管理局公布2025年5月末外汇储备规模数据。截至2025年5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末上升36亿美元，升幅为 0.11%。 央行连续7个月增持黄金 6月7日，央行公布的数据显示，中国5月末黄金储备报7383万盎司，环比增加6万盎司。继去年11月重启增持后 ，这已是央行连续第7个月增持黄金。 | 项目 Item | 2025.01 | | 2025.02 | | 2025.03 | | 2025.04 | | 2025.05 | | 2025.06 | 亿SDR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets are approaching a technical "sell" signal after reaching historical highs, with a warning from Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett about the risk of a market collapse due to excessive investor enthusiasm [1][2] - Approximately 84% of national stock indices are above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a threshold of 88% triggering preset sell conditions [2] - Year-to-date, global equity funds have attracted around $515 billion in inflows, potentially marking the second-highest record in history, while cash funds saw an influx of $94.8 billion in the past week, indicating a shift towards safer assets [2]