近日，人民币兑美元汇率持续走强，引发市场广泛关注。目前汇率已升至7.07附近，较4月低 点7.43累计升值近5%，创下去年10月14日以来的新高。 人民币对美元汇率显著走强的直接原因，在于市场对12月美联储降息的预期升温。尽管美国通 胀压力依然存在，但此前市场对美联储降息的预期并不高，然而随着美股高位震荡，自11月21 日起美联储释放鸽派信号，市场预计降息25个基点的概率已大幅上升至约80%，推动美元指数 回落，并带动人民币等非美货币普遍升值。 值得注意的是，在过去两个多月美元指数因日元贬值而震荡上行的背景下，人民币对美元汇率 保持稳健，形成"美元强、人民币亦强"的双强格局。近期人民币的明显升值主要由市场力量驱 动，显示出其对多数货币普遍走强的趋势。 因此，推动人民币汇率走强的因素不仅限于美联储降息预期，更深层次的支撑力量正在发挥作 用。首先，全球经贸出现积极信号，尤其是中美贸易关系出现缓和，全球投资者对双边关系稳 定的预期，显著降低了中国经济面临的外部不确定性。 从中长期看，中国正稳步推进人民币国际化，企业境外投资亦呈上升趋势。保持人民币稳中有 升的态势，有助于降低企业海外投资的汇率风险，并为人民币在跨境贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has led to a strong performance in the stock market, with major U.S. indices recording five consecutive days of gains, particularly in technology stocks and commodities [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. indices closed higher for the fifth consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones up 0.61% to 47,716.42 points, the S&P 500 up 0.54% to 6,849.09 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.65% to 23,365.69 points [3]. - For the week, the Dow Jones rose 3.18%, the S&P 500 increased by 3.73%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.91%. In November, the Dow Jones saw a cumulative increase of 0.32%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.13%, while the Nasdaq fell by 1.51% [5]. Group 2: Technology Stocks - Large technology stocks generally rose, with Meta gaining over 2%, Amazon up more than 1%, and Microsoft increasing by over 1%. Intel saw a significant rise of over 10% following positive analyst predictions [5][8]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.82%, with notable gains in semiconductor stocks such as Intel, which surged over 10%, and Micron Technology, which increased by over 2% [5]. Group 3: Intel and Apple Collaboration - Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that Intel may start shipping Apple's entry-level M-series processors as early as 2027, following a recent increase in the likelihood of Intel becoming a supplier for Apple's advanced process technology [6][9]. - Apple has reportedly signed a confidentiality agreement with Intel and is awaiting the release of the PDK 1.0/1.1 in early 2026, which will determine the timeline for production [9]. - The expected shipment volume for the standard M chips, primarily used in MacBook Air and iPad Pro, is around 20 million units for this year, with projections of 15 to 20 million units for the low-end M-series chips in 2026 and 2027 [9]. Group 4: Commodity Market Performance - The commodity market continued its upward trend, with spot gold prices rising above $4,200 per ounce, reaching a near two-week high, and spot silver prices breaking the $55 per ounce mark, setting a new historical high [1][11]. - Silver prices have increased for seven consecutive months, with spot silver closing at $56.397 per ounce, up 5.66%, and COMEX silver futures rising by 6.06% to $57.085 per ounce [11].

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a rally ahead of Thanksgiving, with the S&P 500 recording its best Thanksgiving week performance since 2008, closing up 0.54% at 6849.09 points [4] - Major tech stocks like Nvidia and Oracle saw declines, while Intel surged over 10% [2] - US Treasury yields rebounded, with the 10-year yield rising to over 4% [2] - Gold prices increased by 1.5%, reaching $4200, marking a two-week high, while silver prices surged to a historical high [2] Key Company News - Meituan reported its first loss in three years, with a core local business loss of 14.1 billion yuan in Q3, and expects continued losses in Q4 [5] - Oracle and others borrowed $38 billion, contributing to a total debt of nearly $100 billion in the "OpenAI chain" data center ecosystem [8] - Intel is poised to regain a major client, with expectations to deliver Apple’s M-series chips by 2027, leading to a 10% stock increase [8] Commodity Market Insights - Silver futures reached a new high at $53.93 per ounce, driven by tight supply and expectations of Fed rate cuts, while domestic silver inventories hit a seven-year low [6] - Copper supply is at an all-time tight level, with record premiums being charged, as the US is expected to hold 90% of global copper inventories by Q1 next year [7] Domestic Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is seeking public opinion on a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) [10] - Shanghai Guomao Holdings was established to enhance the international competitiveness of commodity trading [10] - Foreign investment banks remain bullish on the Chinese stock market, with Morgan Stanley setting a target of 5200 points for the CSI 300 index by 2026 [10]

Market Overview - US stock markets collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.29%, Nasdaq up 0.39%, and S&P 500 up 0.26% [1] Company Updates - Google shares increased by nearly 1%, with CEO Sundar Pichai expressing hopes to send TPU to space by 2027 [3] - Oracle's stock fell over 3% as multiple banks are negotiating to provide $38 billion in loans to Oracle and data center builder VANTAGE [3] Industry Trends - Storage sector stocks saw a collective rise, with SanDisk up over 4%, Micron Technology up 2.8%, and Western Digital up 2%. This surge is attributed to an exacerbated global shortage of storage chips, with research institutions predicting a 50% increase in storage chip prices [4] - Precious metals experienced significant price movements, with spot gold reaching $4200 per ounce, up 1.03%, and spot silver rising to $55 per ounce, marking a 3% increase and a new record high. Factors contributing to silver's rise include expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, inflows into silver ETFs, and ongoing supply constraints [6] - LME copper prices surged by 2.5%, reaching a new high of $11,210 per ton [7] - Cryptocurrency prices also saw increases, with Bitcoin rising to $92,324.6 (up 1.68%) and Ethereum reaching $3,074.75 (up 2.64%) in the past 24 hours [8] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Bawang Tea up over 4% and Pony.ai up more than 3%, while Canadian Solar fell nearly 2% [5]

Core Insights - Spot gold prices surged on November 28, reaching a high of $4,200 per ounce, marking a two-week peak, with current prices at $4,198.020 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 1% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also showed significant increases on the same day [1] Group 1: Market Trends - COMEX gold futures rose to $4,222.8 per ounce, indicating a synchronized upward movement in gold prices [1] - The domestic gold ETF, Huaxia (518850), increased by 0.65%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) rose by 1.06%, and the non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) gained 1.39% [2] Group 2: Economic Influences - Recent dovish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials suggest a continued possibility of interest rate cuts in December, which is expected to weaken the dollar's medium-term strength [3] - Market predictions indicate a moderate upward trend for international gold prices, with expectations of a range between $4,200 and $4,500 per ounce by Q1 2026, averaging an increase of 8% to 12% [3] - Central bank gold purchases and institutional increases in gold ETFs are anticipated to dominate international gold price movements, alongside macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy [3]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a five-session winning streak, indicating a healthy snapback rally, with a focus on whether this trend will continue or if volatility will return [1] - There is an improvement in market breadth, with cyclical sectors like financials and materials performing well, suggesting a broader rally beyond just technology stocks [2][3] Sector Performance - Semiconductors have risen by 8% from the previous week, alongside small-cap stocks, indicating a flow of capital into these sectors [3] - Approximately 40% of companies in the Russell 2000 index are not profitable, but expectations of rate cuts make these small-cap companies more attractive in the short term [5] Economic Indicators - Consumer sentiment and confidence are low, yet Thanksgiving Day spending increased by 5.3% according to Adobe Analytics, highlighting a mixed economic outlook [6] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is supporting equities, despite ongoing inflation concerns at around 3% [6] Earnings and Market Sentiment - The recent earnings season has shown strong results, with an 83% beat rate in earnings per share and over 60% in revenue beats, leading to high expectations for future earnings [8][9] - Retail investors have been active in buying dips, indicating a shift in market dynamics where retail trading is becoming more influential [12] Upcoming Data and Events - Key economic data to be released next week includes ISM manufacturing and services indices, Challenger job cuts, and PCE inflation data, which will be critical for market direction [13][14] - Notable earnings reports from large-cap companies like Marvel and CrowdStrike are expected, which could significantly impact market movements [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in silver stocks in the U.S. market, driven by rising silver prices and favorable market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. silver stocks saw notable gains, with First Majestic (AG.US) rising over 7%, Hecla Mining (HL.US) and Silvercorp Metals (SVM.US) increasing over 5%, and Coeur Mining (CDE.US) up over 4% [1] - Spot silver prices surged by 3% to reach $55 per ounce, marking a new record high [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in silver prices is supported by multiple factors, including heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, inflows into silver ETFs, and ongoing supply constraints [1] - The trading halt on the CME Group's Comex for several hours contributed to low liquidity and price volatility in both gold and silver markets on that Friday [1]

记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨曾静娇 受美联储降息预期升温提振，北京时间11月28日，美股三大股指开盘集体上涨，截至22:40， 道指、标普500指数涨超0.2%，纳指涨超0.4%。黄金白银等贵金属集体狂飙，比特币重返9.2 万美元关口。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47527.30 | 23310.87 | 6829.55 | | +100.18 +0.21% +96.18 +0.41% +16.94 +0.25% | | | | 中国余龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7779.38 | 25351.25 | 6834.50 | | +28.59 +0.37% +49.50 +0.20% +6.50 +0.10% | | | 大型科技股涨跌不一，谷歌、亚马逊涨约1%；甲骨文跌超3%，英伟达跌1.7%。 英特尔股价 上扬5.8%，即将迎来连续第五个交易日上涨。 | 谷歌(ALPHABE ... | 323.580 | 1.03% | | --- | --- | --- | | GOOG.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 23 ...

Group 1 - US stock market collectively rose on November 28, with major indices showing positive performance [1][9] - Google shares increased by nearly 1%, with CEO Sundar Pichai expressing plans to send TPU to space by 2027 [3] - Oracle shares fell over 3%, while several banks are negotiating to provide storage solutions to Oracle and data center builder VANTAGE [3] Group 2 - Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Bawang Tea increasing over 4% and Pony.ai rising more than 3% [4] - Spot gold reached $4200 per ounce, up 1.03% for the day, while silver surged to $55 per ounce, marking a 3% increase [5] - Silver prices are supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, inflows into silver ETFs, and ongoing supply constraints [5] Group 3 - LME copper prices rose by 2.5%, reaching a new high of $11,210 per ton [6] - Bitcoin increased to $92,324.6, up 1.68% in the past 24 hours, while Ethereum rose to $3,074.75, up 2.64% [7]

证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所定期报告 北交所定期报告 20251128 工信部召开动力和储能电池产业座谈会，北 证 50 上涨 0.39% 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 陈哲晓 执业证书：S0600124080015 sh_chenzhx@dwzq.com.cn 2025 年 11 月 28 日 相关研究： 《央行逆回购 3105 亿元稳流动性北 证 50 下跌 1.4%》 2025-11-19 《北证 50 缩量下跌,广东印发数字经 济新三年方案》 2025-11-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 资本市场新闻：1）加密货币市场集体大涨，美联储主席人选 ...