1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but whether they can continue to rise and start the next wave of the market remains to be observed [12]. - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [16]. - For stock indices, a balanced long - position allocation is recommended [20]. - US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [26]. - The bond market is expected to be in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [29]. - For various commodities, different investment suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals, such as short - term bullish or bearish outlooks, and strategies like long or short positions at appropriate times [32][35][39] etc. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut is needed. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to expectations of the Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion and Trump's proposed fiscal expansion. Buying funds entered the market around $4000. Gold is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but the sustainability of the upward trend needs further observation [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Switzerland is close to reaching a deal with the US to reduce its export tariff to 15%. Trump supports the Senate's agreement to end the government shutdown. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the relief of market tightness and the recovery of risk appetite [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market was strong driven by consumer stocks. New policies on consumption have been introduced this year, but the sustainability of the traditional consumer stocks' rally remains to be seen. A balanced long - position allocation for stock indices is recommended [17][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Some Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Trump is trying to reduce tariffs on Switzerland and India. The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. The US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [21][23][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of funds. Inflation data has a limited negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [27][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, domestic soybean oil mills' soybean inventory increased, while soybean meal inventory decreased. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report and China's soybean procurement and South American weather [30][32]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Simandou Iron Ore project is about to be put into production. Steel prices are oscillating slightly upward, but there is no obvious trend. The valuation of steel prices is not high, but there is still fundamental pressure. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short - term [33][34][35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan's sugar mills will start crushing on November 15. The 25/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi is expected to start on November 15, postponed by 7 days. India allows 150,000 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contracts can be considered [36][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 10, the import market of steam coal had a dull trading performance. Coal prices have risen sharply since November, supported by seasonal demand. However, there is also regulatory pressure above 800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [40][41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Grange's iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. Iron ore prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is moderately high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally in November - December. The valuation space is difficult to open in the short - term [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the East China market is running strongly. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the fourth round of coke price increases is underway. The coking coal market is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term, but the decline in hot - metal production and high downstream inventory may put pressure on the market [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased in October. The oil market rebounded slightly due to the release of the data. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate after a small - scale rebound in November. Attention should be paid to the weather from December to early next year. Opportunities for long positions in the 05 contract and 1 - 5 spread short - positions can be considered [45][46][47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions have different levels of theoretical profits. Corn prices are rising, and starch prices are stable. Enterprises are expected to maintain profitability, and the开机 rate is expected to increase. A band - trading strategy is recommended [48]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are strong. Farmers' willingness to sell is weak, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term and rebound in the long - term. Caution is needed for far - month contracts [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has been slightly reduced. The futures price of the main contract has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvesting is completed and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The government issued a guidance on promoting new - energy consumption and regulation. The polysilicon market is entering a critical point of policy - and fundamental - based games. If the progress of platform companies fails to meet expectations, the spot price may fall. A short - position strategy at high prices can be considered [52][53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A shareholder of Hesheng Silicon Industry plans to reduce its shareholding. With the arrival of the dry season, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased. A long - position strategy at low prices can be considered, but profit - taking at high prices is necessary [55][56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount, and the inventory of lead ingots is increasing. The supply and demand of lead are expected to remain strong in the short - term. The industry can consider short - position hedging at high prices [57][58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc concentrate production decreased in November. The LME zinc is at a premium, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The industry can consider short - position hedging at medium - term highs, and a long - short spread strategy can be considered [59][60][61]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Sumitomo's nickel - bean production increased. The raw - material price is expected to remain stable and strong. The inventory accumulation of refined nickel is slowing down. Attention can be paid to long - position opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [62][63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng Lithium's PPGS lithium - salt lake project obtained an environmental assessment report. The lithium - carbonate market is in a game between strong current reality and weak future expectations. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, and a short - position strategy at high prices can be considered in the medium - term [64][65][66]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A Congolese mine suspended operations due to a leakage incident. A company applied for a US seabed - mining license. The valuation of an Ecuadorian copper mine is $4.6 billion. Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, and a long - position strategy can be considered, but large - scale increases are limited [67][68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Two Indian state - owned enterprises bought 5 million barrels of oil from the US and the Middle East. Oil prices are oscillating, and the recovery of market risk appetite provides some support [70][71]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market is relatively strong recently, but the risk of further upward movement has increased as European pulp can now be registered as warehouse receipts [73]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [74][75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is weakly sorted. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. A short - position strategy at rebounds for near - month contracts and a long - position strategy for far - month contracts after price over - decline can be considered [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity - utilization rate of compound fertilizers is stable. Urea prices rebounded due to new export - quota policies and replenishment demand. Urea prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [79][80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Guoen was put into operation. The fundamental upward drive of pure benzene and styrene is limited. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [82][83][84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. The asphalt market is weakly oscillating, and it is waiting for the winter - storage policy [85][86][87]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. Soda - ash prices rose due to cost support and production suspension of some enterprises. In the short - term, the downward space of soda - ash prices depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity commissioning. A bearish view is recommended in the medium - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased. The glass market is bearish due to weak production and sales after price increases last week. It is recommended to wait and see [89][90]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk has no intention to return to the Red Sea in the short - term. The SCFIS (Europe route) index increased. The container - freight - rate market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the spot price and booking situation [91][92].

特朗普此前就提出过将其政策带来的节约返还给美国人的想法。他今年早些时候曾建议，政府可以把由 马斯克领导的"政府效率部"（DOGE）通过对联邦机构削减预算和裁减人员所节省的资金发放给民众。 特朗普在第一任期内曾在新冠疫情导致经济陷入低迷时向美国人发放过纾困支票。 （原标题：特朗普宣布要发钱 除高收入人群外每人都将获得至少2000美元） 大家好，简单关注一则特朗普的消息。 特朗普表示，关税收入可用于向大多数美国人发放至少2000美元的款项。 在最高法院对他所加征的许多关税的法律依据表示怀疑的几天后，特朗普周日通过社交媒体称赞这些关 税带来的收入，并表示政府很快将开始偿还国家债务。他还表示，除高收入人群外，每个人都将获得至 少2000美元的付款。 特朗普在"Truth Social"上发文写道："反对关税的人是傻子！我们现在是世界上最富有、最受尊敬的国 家，几乎没有通胀，股市创下历史新高。每人至少2000美元的红利（不包括高收入人群！）将发放给所 有人。" 特朗普并未进一步说明这些付款的细节或符合条件的人群。 关税是特朗普标志性的经济政策之一，美国已从中征得数百亿美元。特朗普援引上世纪70年代的一项紧 急权力法，在 ...

Core Points - President Trump has proposed sending $2,000 tariff rebate checks to American citizens, which he claims will be funded by tariff revenues, specifically excluding high-income individuals [1][9] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed skepticism about the feasibility of these checks, suggesting that the "dividend" could manifest through tax cuts rather than direct payments [3][10] - The Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of Trump's tariffs, which could potentially lead to refunds exceeding $100 billion if deemed unconstitutional [5][7] Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - The Trump administration has collected over $220 billion in tariff revenue, but it remains uncertain if this amount will suffice to fund the proposed $2,000 checks [8] - American importers are currently absorbing tariff costs, which are expected to be passed on to consumers, leading to price increases [8] - The proposed checks would cost approximately $326 billion if distributed to all American citizens without exemptions [9] Political and Legal Context - Trump's tariffs, particularly the "Liberation Day" tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, are argued to be essential for addressing the national trade deficit and are framed as a national security measure [6] - Bessent emphasized that the primary goal of tariffs is to create a more balanced and fair trade environment [7] - The Supreme Court's decision on the tariffs could significantly impact the administration's ability to implement the proposed rebate checks [7]

Core Insights - Weyco Group, Inc. (WEYS) shares increased by 12.8% following the earnings report for Q3 2025, contrasting with a 1.8% decline in the S&P 500 index during the same period [1] - The company reported earnings per share of 69 cents, down from 84 cents in Q3 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Net sales for Q3 2025 were $73.1 million, a 2% decrease from $74.3 million in the same quarter last year, attributed to tariffs and lower sales volume [2] - Gross earnings as a percentage of net sales fell to 40.7% from 44.3% year-over-year, with operating earnings decreasing by 21% to $8.1 million [2] - Net earnings dropped 18% year-over-year to $6.6 million [2] North American Wholesale Performance - The North American wholesale segment recorded net sales of $60.2 million, a 2% decrease from $61.1 million in the prior year, with a 7% drop in sales volume [3] - Price increases implemented on July 1, 2025, partially offset the volume decline, which was primarily due to disruptions with a key wholesale customer [3] Brand-Level Performance - Florsheim sales increased by 8%, supported by pricing, while Nunn Bush saw a 1% sales increase [4] - Stacy Adams experienced a 5% sales decline, and BOGS sales fell sharply by 17% due to reduced shipments [4] - Wholesale gross margins declined to 35.7% from 40.1% due to tariffs, with operating earnings for the wholesale segment falling 20% to $7.5 million [4] Retail and International Operations - The North American retail segment reported net sales of $7 million, down 4% from $7.2 million, driven by weaker demand on e-commerce sites [5] - Retail gross earnings as a percentage of net sales slipped to 66.4% from 66.9%, with operating income declining to $0.6 million [5] - International operations generated net sales of $6 million, unchanged from the prior year, but local currency sales grew 2% [6] Management Commentary - CEO Thomas Florsheim Jr. highlighted that the sales decline was influenced by the wholesale customer issue and tariffs, particularly a 30% tariff on goods from China [7] - Management noted that price increases were insufficient to fully offset the tariff burden, leading to margin erosion [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is diversifying its factory base beyond China and strengthening relationships with manufacturing partners to mitigate tariff exposure [8][9] - Management expressed confidence in adapting to the changing trade landscape, with potential signs of tariff relief from U.S.-China trade talks [11] Other Developments - Weyco decided to wind down its Forsake brand due to lack of growth and profitability, aiming to optimize its brand portfolio [12] - The Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend of $2.00 per share and a regular quarterly dividend of 27 cents per share, reflecting a strong liquidity position with $78.5 million in cash and no debt [13]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor Daly stated that restrictive policies are exerting downward pressure on inflation [1] - Daly noted that the impact of tariffs is primarily limited to goods [1]

大家好，简单关注一则特朗普的消息。 特朗普此前就提出过将其政策带来的节约返还给美国人的想法。他今年早些时候曾建议，政府可以把由 马斯克领导的"政府效率部"（DOGE）通过对联邦机构削减预算和裁减人员所节省的资金发放给民众。 特朗普在第一任期内曾在新冠疫情导致经济陷入低迷时向美国人发放过纾困支票。 关税是特朗普标志性的经济政策之一，美国已从中征得数百亿美元。特朗普援引上世纪70年代的一项紧 急权力法，在未经国会批准的情况下对全球范围内的多项商品加征关税。 特朗普在"Truth Social"上发文写道："反对关税的人是傻子！我们现在是世界上最富有、最受尊敬的国 家，几乎没有通胀，股市创下历史新高。每人至少2000美元的红利（不包括高收入人群！）将发放给所 有人。" 特朗普并未进一步说明这些付款的细节或符合条件的人群。 在上周的最高法院辩论中，多名大法官对总统是否有权依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）单方面 征收关税表示怀疑。依据该法征收的关税约占特朗普在其第二任期迄今宣布关税总额的四分之三。在近 三个小时的庭审中，一些小企业和州政府对特朗普征收这些关税的法律权力提出了质疑。目前尚不清楚 法院将于何时裁决， ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump announced plans to distribute at least $2,000 to most Americans using revenue from tariffs, despite legal challenges regarding the authority to impose these tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Payments - Trump stated that the revenue from tariffs could be used to provide payments of at least $2,000 to most Americans, excluding high-income individuals [2]. - The tariffs, a hallmark of Trump's economic policy, have generated hundreds of billions in revenue for the U.S. government [2]. - The White House confirmed that the tariffs serve both national security purposes and generate significant revenue for the government, which is committed to using this money for the benefit of the American people [4]. Group 2: Legal Challenges - During recent Supreme Court debates, several justices expressed skepticism about the president's authority to unilaterally impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3]. - Approximately three-quarters of the tariffs announced during Trump's second term are based on the IEEPA, which has faced legal scrutiny from small businesses and state governments [3]. - The government argued that these tariffs were not intended to increase fiscal revenue, as the Constitution grants Congress the power to levy taxes [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of tariffs is primarily limited to goods [1] Group 2 - The statement was made by Federal Reserve Governor Daly [1] - The commentary suggests a focused analysis on the effects of tariffs within the goods sector rather than services or other areas [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a high overall market risk, particularly during a de-risking period, with a focus on concentrated positions in data center stocks and a pessimistic sentiment towards consumer sectors [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance reflects internal divisions regarding the level of policy accommodation, contributing to market concerns about economic prospects despite a generally loose financial environment [2][3]. - Over two-thirds of companies reported earnings exceeding expectations by more than one standard deviation, yet their single-day performance lagged behind the S&P index, indicating high client positioning levels and a preference for AI-related stocks while shorting consumer-related stocks [1][3]. - The Supreme Court's deliberation on the AEBA tariff case could lead to a significant reduction in effective tariff rates, currently around 15%, if tariffs are deemed invalid, although the government may seek alternative methods to reimplement tariffs [1][4][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Employment market data, including Challenger data, reveals concerns about the labor market, exacerbating fears about the economic outlook [1][2]. - The stock market's recent weakness is attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish position and worries over soft economic data, with a potential recovery contingent on the Fed acknowledging these data and taking stabilizing measures [2][11]. Market Sentiment - Despite a tightening of institutional investor positions, retail investors remain optimistic, with a potential trigger for CTA stop-loss levels [3]. - The current environment shows a significant interest in AI stocks while consumer stocks face downward pressure, leading to substantial corrections in popular retail and semiconductor stocks [3][5]. Tariff Implications - If the Supreme Court rules against the government regarding tariffs, the effective tariff rate could decrease by up to 7.5 percentage points, with the government likely to explore alternative measures for tariff implementation [4][6][7]. - The government may utilize temporary tariffs under Section 122 or initiate investigations under Section 301, which could prolong the process of implementing new tariffs [7][8]. Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown, now lasting approximately 37 days, is tied to a standoff over Senate filibuster rules, with pressure mounting to resolve funding issues as critical deadlines approach [9][10]. - A resolution to the government shutdown is anticipated around mid-November, which could significantly impact consumer sentiment and market dynamics [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. There were still global uncertainties. Force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the sharp rise of precious metals stimulated the increase of copper prices. Domestically, it was the off - season for consumption, and the downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was normal, mainly for rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 135,900 tons, slightly increasing last week, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons compared with last week [4]. - In terms of supply - demand balance, it was in a tight balance in 2024 and would be in surplus in 2025 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.23% to close at 85,940 yuan/ton. Geopolitical and tariff factors affected prices. Force majeure in Indonesian mines and the rise of precious metals stimulated price increases. Domestically, it was the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory slightly increased, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,105 tons to 115,035 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: No specific content provided [10]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, it was in a tight balance, and in 2025, it would be in surplus. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table showed the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee was at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content provided [27]. - **Import Profit**: No specific content provided [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content provided.