黄金短线反弹，关税不确定性叠加美联储利率维持不变，黄金基本面即将发生改变？交易学院正在直 播，点击立即观看>>> 相关链接 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1.65%, while total trading volume decreased to 1.32 trillion yuan compared to the previous day [1][4] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, and kept the balance sheet reduction pace unchanged [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Fed's recent meeting indicated a cautious stance on monetary policy adjustments, with market expectations for three rate cuts this year in July, September, and December [1][2] - Powell highlighted the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and its impact on inflation and growth, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [2] Central Bank Actions - As of the end of April, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces (approximately 2,294.51 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) for the sixth consecutive month [2] - The continuous increase in gold reserves reflects concerns over global economic uncertainty and risks associated with the US dollar [3] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the telecommunications, defense, and power equipment sectors led the gains, with increases of 2.60%, 2.57%, and 1.62% respectively [4] - Conversely, the beauty care, non-ferrous metals, and steel sectors experienced declines of 0.96%, 0.43%, and 0.38% respectively [4] Trading Data - The market's trading volume was reported at 1,321.94 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous trading day [5] - The margin trading balance rose to 1,808.746 billion yuan, indicating an increase compared to the prior day [5]

Summary of Key Points Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance and the challenges faced by Chairman Jerome Powell regarding inflation and growth pressures [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - The Federal Reserve is in a "dilemma" between tolerating a temporary inflation shock to address future growth pressures or focusing on immediate inflation concerns at the cost of growth [1]. - The recent meeting of the Federal Reserve leaned slightly hawkish, indicating a rejection of "preemptive action" [1]. - Current economic data is relatively strong, which may influence the Fed's decision-making process [1]. - Powell's term ends in May next year, suggesting that a wait-and-see approach might be the optimal short-term strategy [1]. - Powell ambiguously stated that if tariffs remain at current levels, interest rate cuts may not occur within the year [1]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - There is uncertainty regarding tariffs, which could impact future monetary policy decisions [1]. - Despite the Fed's stance, the market appears to remain hopeful for potential rate cuts [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy statement is more hawkish than expected, indicating concerns about stagflation and uncertainty regarding tariffs [1] Group 1 - Spartan Capital Securities' chief market economist, Peter Cardillo, notes that the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1] - The Fed's statement suggests a strong commitment to remain on hold until more information is available regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - The current Fed meeting is characterized by significant uncertainty, highlighting the challenges faced by policymakers in navigating economic conditions [1]

Group 1 - The necessity of defense innovation was emphasized by Eric Schmidt, CEO of Relativity Space, who previously served as CEO of Google [1] - The head of mergers at JPMorgan discussed the current pessimistic outlook among traders [1] - The CEO of NVIDIA addressed the implications of chip export restrictions [1] Group 2 - Matt Gibson, Global Head of Client Solutions at Goldman Sachs, spoke about the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [1] - Emmanuel Roman, CEO of PIMCO, discussed the current levels of U.S. debt [1] - Castle Securities is seeking growth opportunities outside the United States [1] Group 3 - Armen Panossian, Co-CEO of Oak Tree Capital, explored how clients are looking to reduce their investments in the U.S. [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. bond market is currently influenced by uncertainties surrounding trade policies, leading to a re-evaluation of risk by investors [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield has returned to levels seen a month ago, indicating a "mean reversion" that masks deeper market anxieties related to trade negotiations [3][4] - The recent comments from President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign films have added complexity to the already tense trade discussions, making it difficult for the market to establish a coherent narrative [3][4] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a chain reaction due to policy uncertainties, as evidenced by the decline in U.S. stock indices, ending a nine-day streak of gains for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming two-day meeting is anticipated to maintain short-term interest rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range, but there is a notable expectation for a rate cut by December, reflecting a tension between market expectations and reality [3][4] - The long-end yield movements suggest a shift in market logic, as the 10-year Treasury yield is becoming a reflection of trade policies, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions rather than being directly controlled by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming supply of U.S. Treasuries, including $42 billion in 10-year notes and $25 billion in 30-year notes, will test market resilience amid growing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and geopolitical risks [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is seen as a "preventive tax" on global capital flows, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's inaction, leading to market pain during this policy vacuum [5] - The ongoing tensions in global trade and financial pricing mechanisms are creating a fragile balance that could be disrupted, posing challenges for modern financial markets in the face of de-globalization [5]

金十数据5月2日讯，美国非农就业报告将于北京时间今晚20:30公布，4月数据将首次揭示关税不确定性 对就业市场的潜在影响。狂风骤雨即将来袭，敬请投资者留意风险… 相关链接 4月非农增幅将大大下降？20:30揭晓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below the federal funds rate, signaling that the market believes the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates [1] Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet reiterated the prediction that as time progresses and trade agreements are reached, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs will diminish [1] - Despite panic over a significant drop in the stock market in April, the market ultimately remained relatively flat for the month [1] - Bessenet described the market's experience in April as having undergone remarkable volatility, suggesting that the journey will be worthwhile in the end [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged the potential impact of tariff uncertainties on service sector inflation and price transmission, indicating that this possibility is reasonable [1]