总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月05日 [若有效上破 Table_NewTitle] 3418点压力位，指数或有进 一步盘升动能 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 4.《上证指数或有进一步震荡盘升动 能——技术分析上证指数简评》 5.《上证指数短线技术条件明显修 复，回落空间小上涨空间大——技术 分析上证指数简评》 6.《证券板块技术条件有所向好，上 涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析 行业板块简评》 7.《保险板块或已走出下降趋势，上 涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析 行业板块简评》 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：上证指数目前上有3418点一线的压力，下有3174点一线的支撑，目前尚未有效 突破。近日指数正趋近3418点一线的压力位，压力位 ...

金十图示：2025年06月03日（周二）香港恒生指数期货技术面一览（日图） | 时期 | 简单移动平均线 | 指数移动平均线 | | --- | --- | --- | | MA5 | 23132.8 | 23222.9 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA10 | 23259.1 | 23210.9 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA20 | 23217.9 | 22992.9 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA50 | GU 22646.8 | 22664.7 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA100 | 22178.7 | 22155.3 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA200 | 20797.8 | 21052.3 | | | 买入 | 买人 | | 买入:12 卖出:0 总结:强力买入 | | | | | << 我指标 >> | | | LATI | 2025年06月04日 北京时间03:00 IR LL | -1 11. | | 名称 | 价格 | 动作 | | --- | --- | --- | | RSI(14) IN10. ...

午夜黄金建议：回踩3335-3340布局多单 止损3325 目标3378 成功的交易者，要深深了解到事物的发展是辩证的，投资市场中利好与利淡因素也是在不断地起着变 化，利好中有利淡因素，利淡中也有利好因素，升势中蕴藏着下跌危机，下跌中酝酿着上升契机，因此 要敢于果断出手，及时捕捉行情，操作上不要患得患失，也不要犹豫不绝。技术分析是一把双刃剑，关 健看金民如何使用，千人数浪千人浪，做为成功的投资者，是技术分析工具的主人，而不是技术分析工 具的奴隶，任何技术分析工具，只能作为一种参考，而决不能盲从，更不能搞教条主义，只有经过反得 多次被市场验证提炼出最有效技术分析。多观察，多总结，吸取教训，才能夺取更大的胜利！ 文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等 大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，实时 思路现价给出， 高晓峰：6.3全球市场震荡！美元与黄金'跷跷板'效应再显威力 进入6月，黄金市场波动显著。6月首个交易日，现货黄金单日涨幅近3%，一度突破3392美元高位，但 次日亚市盘中回落至3350美元附近震荡，跌幅约 ...

Group 1: Commodity Prices - Spot gold is hovering around the pivot point of 3358.46, with the first resistance level at 3368.76 if it breaks above [1] - Spot silver is targeting the first resistance at 34.71 [3] - WTI crude oil has a primary resistance level at 62.90 [5] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - The current dollar index is near the resistance level of 99.26 [17] - The euro to dollar exchange rate continues to decline, with support observed at 1.1376 [19] - The pound to dollar exchange rate has a support level at 1.3477 [21] Group 3: Futures and Indices - The S&P 500 futures have a bullish scenario above 5930.38, with resistance levels at 5944.5 and 5992.75 [29] - The German DAX futures indicate a bearish scenario below 24001.4, with resistance at 24068.7 and 24134.2 [34] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures show a bearish outlook below 24001.4 [34]

6月来的第一天，黄金价格再一次上涨到3400美元/盎司附近，上一次黄金在这个价格还是5月初，而且那时候是在4月的历史高点的回调下，二次看涨情绪没 有那么高。但是这一次上攻不同，是黄金价格萎靡了近一月的基础上上行的，所以会不会突破前期高点3500美元/盎司呢？ 这一次黄金价格上行，还是由老特的政府班子引起。当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从 25%提高至50%。而且该决定从明天(6月4日)起生效。贸易谈判重启，避险情绪上升，黄金价格上行。 对于支撑黄金价格的贸易谈判因素，我认为不会消亡，这是长时间支撑黄金价格上行的重要因素。特朗普的贸易战策略是多维度的，它左手挥完挥右手，不 赚的盆满钵满，难以结束，从以下各个点可以看出来。 1.重塑美国产业与贸易平衡。特朗普认为美国长期处于贸易逆差（尤其对墨西哥、中国、欧盟等国）损害了经济。他试图通过关税迫使贸易伙伴多购买美国 产品，将净进口由负转正。例如，2024年美国前三大贸易逆差来源为墨西哥、中国和加拿大，关税被用作谈判筹码以压缩赤字。 另一方面，从技术分析的角度来看，黄金价格的三角形态暂被突破 ，这是黄金高位震荡以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of major asset classes from both macroeconomic and technical perspectives, indicating a generally favorable outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold, while highlighting specific trends and valuation metrics for each asset class [1][3][19]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic indicators suggest a positive outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold, with specific indicators showing varying degrees of influence on asset performance [5][19]. - The analysis employs T-tests to assess the impact of macroeconomic trends on asset returns, indicating significant differences in average returns under different macro conditions [3][4]. Technical Perspective - The technical analysis indicates that as of May 31, 2025, bond and gold prices are trending upwards, while equity and industrial product prices are trending downwards [9][10]. - Different methods are used to calculate trend indicators for various asset classes, with historical performance data guiding the selection of the most effective methods [7]. Valuation Metrics - The current equity risk premium (ERP) is at 82.51%, indicating that equity valuations are relatively low compared to historical averages [12][13]. - The analysis of funding flow metrics shows that the equity market is experiencing a net outflow of 1.3 billion yuan, suggesting a cautious sentiment among investors [15][16]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data indicates that the fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 0.09% in May 2025, with an annualized return of 11.82% since April 2006 [2][20]. - The performance of various asset allocation strategies is tracked, showing that combinations of macro and technical indicators can enhance returns while managing risk [24][25].

| 每小时 | | 5小时 | 座日 | 每周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总结 | 强力买入 | | | | | 移动平均线 | | 强力买入 | 买入10 | 卖出2 | | 技术指标 | | 买入 | 买入4 | 卖出0 | | 时期 | 简单移动平均线 | 指数移动平均线 | | --- | --- | --- | | MA5 | 13302.8 | 13316.5 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA10 | 13267.1 | 13281.4 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA20 | 13229.2 | 13255.8 | | | 买入 | 买入 | 金十图示：2025年06月03日（周二）富时中国A50指数期货技术面一览（一小时图） | MA50 | 13241.5 | 13250.0 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA100 | 13283.8 | 13311.4 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA200 | 13456.7 | 13382.6 | | | 薬品 | 卖出 | | 买入: ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the journey of a trader who initially experienced success but faced significant losses due to a lack of understanding of risk management and emotional control in trading [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trading Experience - The trader won a domestic derivatives competition but lacked knowledge in risk control and technical analysis, attributing early success to luck [1]. - After borrowing 300,000 and investing in the Taiwan stock index, the trader lost 150,000 due to a gambling mentality, realizing the difficulty of executing the strategy of holding profitable trades and cutting losses [2]. - Subsequent attempts to apply technical analysis led to further losses, highlighting the limitations and lagging nature of many technical indicators [3][6]. Group 2: Learning and Adaptation - The trader began to study various trading strategies and technical analysis methods, seeking to improve performance after experiencing significant losses [2][5]. - A pivotal moment occurred when the trader recognized the importance of directly observing price movements rather than solely relying on technical indicators [4]. - The introduction of algorithmic trading was attempted, but it resulted in even greater losses, emphasizing the challenges of automated trading systems [6]. Group 3: Key Trading Principles - The trader eventually identified that support, resistance, and trend lines are fundamental to successful trading, allowing for a more stable trading approach [7]. - Using support lines to gauge price trends proved to be a reliable method, particularly during trend reversals [8]. - The article emphasizes that trading in the direction of established trends can enhance profit potential and speed up the realization of gains [9][10].

Group 1 - The core concept of market bottom is defined as a turning point in a declining market where prices have fallen to a level that signals the beginning of a new upward trend, indicating a fundamental shift from bearish to bullish market forces [3] - Understanding market bottom helps investors identify the right timing for investment during market fluctuations [3] Group 2 - Key characteristics of market bottom include extreme shrinkage in trading volume, which reflects a decline in investor confidence and market activity, often signaling an impending market reversal [4] - Market sentiment is typically extremely pessimistic at the bottom, with investors feeling hopeless and withdrawing from the market, which can serve as a crucial signal for market recovery [5] - Technical indicators showing divergence, such as RSI or MACD, can indicate weakening downward momentum, suggesting that a market bottom may be near [6] - Valuation metrics like PE and PB ratios are often at historical lows during market bottoms, indicating attractive buying opportunities for investors [7] - A significant number of stocks trading below their net asset value (PB < 1) can signal a market bottom, as seen in previous market downturns [8] - The relative attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds can be assessed through the stock-bond yield spread, with high spreads indicating better stock investment opportunities [9][10] - A drastic decline in the number of new investors or account openings often accompanies market bottoms, reflecting a lack of market participation and sentiment [11] - Even traditionally resilient sectors and leading stocks may experience declines near market bottoms, indicating that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion [12] Group 3 - Judging market bottoms requires a comprehensive analysis of multiple market characteristics, including volume, sentiment, technical indicators, and valuation levels [13] - Historical data and experiences can provide valuable insights for current market bottom assessments, although each market cycle has unique factors [14] - Monitoring macroeconomic conditions and policy changes is crucial, as positive signs in these areas can support market recovery [15] Group 4 - Investment strategies during market bottoms include phased buying and diversification to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [16] - Focusing on high-quality assets that may be undervalued during downturns can yield significant returns when the market rebounds [17] - Utilizing technical analysis tools can help investors identify reversal signals and optimal buying or selling points [18] - Maintaining patience and confidence is essential for investors to navigate the psychological pressures of market bottoms and avoid panic selling [19] Group 5 - Identifying market bottoms is a complex task that requires a multifaceted approach, with a focus on market dynamics and macroeconomic changes [20]

| MA50 | | 22754.5 | 22578.4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA100 | | 22022.3 | 22038.2 | | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA200 | | 20644.4 | 20947.3 | | | | 买入 | 买入 | | 买入:8 总结:买入 | 卖出:4 | | | | 每小时 | | 5小时 | 毎日 | 每周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总结 | 买入 | | | | | 移动平均线 | | 买入 | 买入8 | 卖出4 | | 技术指标 | | 买入 | 买入3 | 卖出2 | | 时期 | 简单移动平均线 | 指数移动平均线 | | --- | --- | --- | | MA5 | 23385.4 | 23301.4 | | | 卖出 | 卖出 | | MA10 | 23400.5 | 23258.4 | | | 卖出 | 菜田 | | MA20 | 22997.2 | 23011.8 | | | 买入 | 买入 | 金十图示：2025 ...