2025-09-01 九月行情展望 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 8月行情强度 research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% 统计意义上的强度属于一般高的范畴，但鉴于涨幅榜前20有4只起涨时自由流通市值已在100亿以上的个股， 甚至有起步时已1403亿的寒武纪，且起涨时成交额均是10亿量级的，8月的实质强度较大 表1：8月涨幅榜前20 | 属性 | 名称 | 最低到最高涨幅 | 前最低价（元） | 起涨时自由流通市值（亿） | 起涨时成交额（千万） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新产品 | 赛诺医疗 | 238 86% . | 13 92 . | 42 81 . | 40 53 . | | 并购重组 | 开普云 | 163 56% . | 62 28 . | 19 71 . | 37 91 . | | 算力 | 华胜天成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 12.9 billion and a year-on-year increase of 6%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11% to 1.3 billion [1] - The company is expanding its global market presence and product categories, with ongoing projects in Mexico and plans for a factory in Poland, enhancing its ability to meet local demand [2] - The company is focusing on core technologies, particularly in robotics and liquid cooling, with significant growth potential in these areas [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 3.3 billion, 4.1 billion, and 5.0 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33, 27, and 22 [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach 33.25 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 3.3 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 10.1% [4] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 1.90 for 2025, with a net asset return rate of 13.4% [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to be 43.45 billion by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 43.2% [9]

Core Insights - The research report from Guojin Securities highlights a significant rebound in the wind turbine bidding scale for central state-owned enterprises, reaching 10.3 GW in August, marking an 88% month-on-month increase and a 0.4% year-on-year increase [1][2] - Wind turbine average bidding prices have also seen a 5% increase in July and August, reaching 1647 RMB/kW, with an 11% increase compared to the average price for the entire year of 2024 [1][2] Wind Power - The wind power sector has shown a strong recovery in August after a decline in June and July, with a notable increase in bidding scale [2] - The average bidding price for wind turbines has increased significantly, indicating a positive trend in pricing [2] AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) - The sentiment in the liquid cooling sector has improved following a period of adjustment, with domestic companies reporting progress in liquid cooling products [2] - The HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) segment continues to gain attention, with updates on industry developments [2] Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The photovoltaic main chain experienced mixed results in Q2, with some companies expected to show strong improvements in Q3 due to effective measures against internal competition [2] - Companies with the ability and willingness to extend their business into high-growth sectors are recommended for attention [2] Lithium Batteries - Lithium battery production in September exceeded expectations, with a projected increase of 4% to 8% in Q3, indicating a high level of market activity [3] - Price increases for key materials have been observed, and solid-state battery development is accelerating [3] Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The lack of electricity accessibility in the U.S. grid is a significant constraint for data center operations, with a projected 45 GW power shortfall from 2025 to 2028 [3] - Microgrids are becoming essential for supporting AI project implementations in areas without traditional grid access [3] Power Grid - The third batch of bidding for State Grid's ultra-high voltage equipment is in line with expectations, with an acceleration in the bidding pace anticipated [4] - Companies like Mingyang Electric and Jinpan Technology have reported positive Q2 performance, indicating growth opportunities in the data center sector [4] New Energy Vehicles - The market for new energy vehicles is showing signs of recovery, although the overall growth rate remains under pressure due to high year-on-year comparisons [4] - Financial reports from major manufacturers indicate a clear differentiation in performance, suggesting opportunities for secondary leading companies [4] Important Industry Events - Eight manufacturers have qualified for a 10 GW tender from Datang, with generally rising bid prices [5] - Significant developments in the hydrogen energy sector include the establishment of a liquid hydrogen base and support for SOFC and SOEC technology applications [5]

Core Viewpoint - The liquid cooling sector is poised to become a key investment direction in the AI computing revolution, with expectations of rapid growth in penetration rates and market demand [2][9][33]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In August, the AI market sentiment expanded from optical modules and PCBs to include server power supplies and liquid cooling, with stocks like Invec and others reaching historical highs [1][14]. - The liquid cooling segment, previously seen as a laggard in AI trends, is now gaining fundamental support, indicating a shift from mere thematic speculation to a more robust market presence [1][33]. - The anticipated release of NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300 series chips is expected to drive the adoption of liquid cooling solutions, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for the sector [9][24]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Liquid cooling technology is becoming a standard for next-generation computing products, with significant improvements in performance and efficiency compared to traditional air cooling [2][5]. - The transition from air cooling to liquid cooling is driven by the increasing power requirements of GPUs, with the B200 and B300 chips necessitating liquid cooling solutions due to their high power outputs [5][6]. - The introduction of new products supporting liquid cooling, such as AMD's MI350 series and Broadcom's Ethernet switches, signifies a broader acceptance and integration of liquid cooling technologies [7][9]. Group 3: Industry Growth Projections - TrendForce projects that the penetration rate of liquid cooling in AI data centers will increase from 14% in 2024 to 33% in 2025, driven by the mass production of NVIDIA's new server models [8][9]. - The market for liquid cooling components, including cold plates and heat exchange systems, is expected to expand significantly, with estimates suggesting a potential market size of 100 billion RMB by 2026 [12][9]. - The liquid cooling industry is anticipated to mirror the growth trajectories of optical modules and PCBs, with a strong likelihood of emerging leaders in the market [33][24]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Companies like Invec are positioned as key players in the liquid cooling supply chain, with significant stock price increases reflecting market confidence in their growth potential [14][17]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by two types of companies: system integrators like Invec and manufacturers focusing on individual components, each following distinct growth paths [25][26]. - The entry of domestic manufacturers into the global liquid cooling market is expected to follow the patterns seen in the PCB industry, with potential for substantial market share gains [19][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid advancements in liquid cooling technology within the semiconductor industry, highlighting the significant power consumption increases of GPUs from Nvidia and AMD, and the evolving design and cost dynamics of liquid cooling systems. Group 1: Liquid Cooling Technology Overview - Nvidia and AMD are leading the application of liquid cooling technology, with Nvidia's B200 chip consuming 1200 watts and the latest B300 chip reaching 1400 watts, while future chips like Rubin are expected to consume up to 3600 watts [2][3] - AMD's GPU power consumption has also surged, with the MI300 series at 700-750 watts, MI325 at 1000 watts, and MI355 at 1400 watts, with the MI375 series projected to reach 1600 watts [2][3] Group 2: Core Component Upgrades - The core components of liquid cooling systems, such as cold plates, quick connectors, and piping, are evolving. The GB200 platform features 45 cold plates at a cost of $600-700 each, while the GB300 has 117 cold plates with a reduced cost of $200-300 each, leading to an overall value increase from $780,000 to $900,000 [4] - The quick connector used in GB200 is the OCP standard UQD04, while GB300 has upgraded to Nvidia's NVQD03, nearly doubling the quantity and increasing the total value to about twice that of GB200 [4] Group 3: Cooling Distribution Units (CDUs) - CDUs are moving towards standardization, with types including embedded, cabinet, and distribution types. The domestic market favors high-power CDUs (1500-2000 watts), while North America and Europe prefer distribution types with capacities of 70 kW and 150 kW, priced around $30,000 to $40,000 [5] - The unique "density stacking" strategy in the domestic GPU market has led to increased demand for liquid cooling solutions, as seen with Huawei's CloudMatrix384 cabinet having a power consumption four times that of Nvidia's NVL72 cabinet [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competition - Domestic data centers are expected to adopt domestic GPU cards extensively, making liquid cooling systems a standard feature. Customization of cold plates and quick connectors is particularly pronounced in the domestic market [7] - Taiwanese manufacturers hold a leading position in the liquid cooling market due to their first-mover advantage, while domestic manufacturers like Invec offer competitive pricing and customization capabilities, with costs for CDU and internal components being 20-30% lower than their Taiwanese counterparts [8] Group 5: Challenges and Future Directions - Current challenges in liquid cooling include issues with dual-sided cold plates, such as increased pressure and deformation, as well as the high cost and environmental concerns associated with immersion cooling fluids [9] - The market is shifting focus towards new mineral oils to optimize flow rates and heat dissipation capabilities, aiming to balance cost and performance [9]

Core Viewpoint - The liquid cooling sector is poised to become a core investment direction in the AI computing revolution, with increasing penetration rates and a shift from speculative trading to fundamental support [4][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In August, the AI market expansion spread from optical modules and PCBs to server power supplies and liquid cooling [1]. - Companies like Invec, Oulu Tong, and Megmeet have seen their stock prices reach historical highs, indicating a growing interest in the liquid cooling sector [2]. - The liquid cooling concept has been developing for nearly two years, but the actual market implementation has been slow [5][6]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The demand for liquid cooling technology is becoming urgent with the release of NVIDIA's Blackwell series chips, which require advanced cooling solutions [8][10]. - The transition from air cooling to liquid cooling is driven by the increasing power requirements of GPUs, with the B200 and B300 chips necessitating liquid cooling solutions [7][8]. - The penetration rate of liquid cooling in AI data centers is expected to rise significantly, from 14% in 2024 to 33% in 2025, as major cloud service providers upgrade their infrastructure [12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The liquid cooling market is projected to reach 100 billion RMB by 2026, driven by the increasing demand for AI servers and the expansion of liquid cooling solutions [15]. - Companies in the liquid cooling supply chain, such as Invec, have seen substantial stock price increases, with Invec's stock rising nearly 98% in August alone [17]. - The liquid cooling sector is expected to replicate the success of the optical module and PCB markets, with potential for significant growth and investment opportunities [20][27]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The liquid cooling industry can be divided into two categories: system integrators like Invec and manufacturers focusing on individual components [28]. - The entry of domestic manufacturers into the global liquid cooling supply chain is anticipated, similar to the previous trends seen in the PCB market [22][24]. - The high entry barriers in the liquid cooling sector are primarily due to the need for advanced system integration capabilities, which many manufacturers currently lack [32][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and potential of liquid cooling technology in the AI computing sector, highlighting its transition from a niche market to a standard requirement for next-generation computing products [4][11][36]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In August, the AI market expanded from optical modules and PCBs to include server power supplies and liquid cooling systems [2]. - Companies like Invec, Oulu Tong, and Megmeet have seen their stock prices reach historical highs, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards liquid cooling as a viable investment opportunity [3][16]. - The liquid cooling sector, previously viewed as a laggard in AI trends, is now expected to become a leading investment focus due to its essential role in AI computing [4][16]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Liquid cooling technology has evolved significantly over the past two years, with increasing expectations following the AI boom in 2023 [6][7]. - The introduction of high-power chips, such as NVIDIA's B200 and B300, necessitates liquid cooling solutions due to their high thermal output [7][8]. - The expected penetration rate of liquid cooling in AI data centers is projected to rise from 14% in 2024 to 33% in 2025, driven by the adoption of new server architectures [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The liquid cooling market is anticipated to reach a valuation of 100 billion RMB by 2026, driven by the increasing demand for AI servers and the corresponding rise in liquid cooling adoption [14][29]. - Companies within the liquid cooling supply chain, such as Invec and others, have experienced significant stock price increases, reflecting investor confidence in the sector's growth potential [16][19]. - The article suggests that the liquid cooling industry could replicate the success seen in the optical module and PCB markets, with potential new leaders emerging in the coming years [25][38]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The liquid cooling industry is characterized by two main types of companies: those with system design integration capabilities (e.g., Invec, Highlan) and those focused on manufacturing individual components [30][31]. - The article emphasizes the importance of system integration design capabilities as a high barrier to entry, which could limit competition from companies lacking experience in data center and server applications [34][35]. - As the market matures, the competitive landscape is expected to evolve, with a few key players dominating the supply chain, similar to trends observed in the PCB industry [29][36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of fluorinated chemicals in the context of liquid cooling technology, which is expected to become a key solution for data centers as chip and cabinet power consumption continues to rise [1] - NVIDIA has clearly stated its intention to adopt liquid cooling this year, while domestic manufacturers are currently in the initial development phase [1] - The chemical ETF (159870) has seen significant gains, with leading stocks being fluorinated chemical companies, indicating strong market interest in this sector [1] Group 2 - Central Huijin holds 248 million shares of the chemical ETF, making it the largest shareholder, accounting for 10.02% of the ETF's total shares [1] - The social security fund's second-quarter report shows it holds over 6 billion in the chemical sector, ranking first among industries, with a total market value of 33.2 billion across 129 stocks [1] - The top ten holdings include companies from banking, PCB, agriculture, and leading chemical firm Wanhua Chemical, reflecting strong confidence in the chemical sector from both Central Huijin and the social security fund [1] Group 3 - Tianfeng Strategy notes that the chemical sector is driven by both a shift from the bond market to equities and macroeconomic factors, suggesting an improvement in fundamentals next year [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is likely to return to positive territory, and the current relative valuation of the chemical sector is low, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1] - The K-line chart of the chemical ETF shows relatively modest gains, indicating a good entry point for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shenglan Co., Ltd. has shown significant growth in its connector business, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, while also expanding into the liquid cooling market, which is expected to become a second growth driver for the company [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 774 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.01 million RMB, up 58.13% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 438 million RMB, reflecting a 39.80% year-on-year growth, with net profit of 53.87 million RMB, an increase of 71.81% [1]. - The company's gross profit margin improved to 25.33%, up 0.69 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance decreased [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The company specializes in connectors and components for consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and data communications, serving major clients like Foxconn and BYD [2]. - The consumer electronics segment generated 485 million RMB in revenue, a 26.32% increase, while the new energy vehicle segment saw revenue of 177 million RMB, up 40.58% [1][2]. - The data communications segment experienced a significant revenue increase of 104.59%, reaching 51.52 million RMB [1]. Group 3: Liquid Cooling Business - The liquid cooling market is projected to grow from 2.6 billion USD in 2023 to 7.8 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 24.4% [3]. - The company has developed components like UQD and liquid cooling plates and has begun receiving small orders, marking a significant step towards commercializing its liquid cooling products [3]. - Collaborations with well-known manufacturers in Taiwan are underway, indicating strong potential for future growth in the liquid cooling sector [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 162 million RMB, 199 million RMB, and 240 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.22, and 1.47 RMB [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 66, 53, and 44 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a favorable investment outlook [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by advancements in various sectors including consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and AI [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 774 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.01 million RMB, up 58.13% [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of 438 million RMB, representing a 39.80% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 53.87 million RMB, which is a 71.81% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. - The gross margin for the company improved to 25.33%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance decreased [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The consumer electronics connector and components segment generated revenue of 485 million RMB, a 26.32% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.52% [1]. - The new energy vehicle connector and components segment saw revenue of 177 million RMB, a 40.58% increase year-on-year, although its gross margin slightly decreased to 16.96% [1]. - The data communication high-speed connector business experienced substantial growth, with revenue reaching 51.52 million RMB, a remarkable increase of 104.59% year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise 450 million RMB for the development of high-voltage connectors for new energy vehicles and industrial control connectors, reinforcing its core business [2]. - The company has begun to explore the liquid cooling market, with initial orders for UQD and liquid cooling plates, indicating a strategic shift towards this growing sector [3]. - The global data center liquid cooling market is projected to grow from 2.6 billion USD in 2023 to 7.8 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 24.4%, presenting a significant opportunity for the company [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its connector business while expanding into the liquid cooling sector, with projected net profits of 162 million RMB, 199 million RMB, and 240 million RMB for 2025-2027 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.99 RMB, 1.22 RMB, and 1.47 RMB for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 66, 53, and 44 times [4].