Core Insights - The May 2023 China Commodity Price Index (CCPI) stands at 110.3 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% [1][3] - The index indicates a stabilization trend in commodity prices, with specific sectors showing varied performance, such as a slight increase in non-ferrous metal prices and a rebound in chemical prices [1][6] Price Index Summary - The non-ferrous price index rose to 127.7 points, up 0.9% month-on-month but down 5.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The agricultural product price index increased to 98.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][4] - The chemical price index rebounded to 102.8 points, up 0.5% month-on-month but down 13.7% year-on-year [3][4] - The black metal price index fell to 78.7 points, down 0.8% month-on-month and down 11.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The energy price index decreased to 96.3 points, down 2.1% month-on-month and down 14.9% year-on-year [3][4] - The mineral price index dropped to 75.6 points, down 2.2% month-on-month and down 8.3% year-on-year [3][4] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 32 (64%) saw price declines while 17 (34%) experienced price increases [4][6] - The top three commodities with price increases were PTA (up 9.5%), ethylene glycol (up 4.6%), and corn (up 4.3%) [4][6] - The largest price declines were observed in industrial silicon (down 10.2%), lithium carbonate (down 10%), and soybean meal (down 9.9%) [4][6] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the rise in non-ferrous prices to improved demand expectations due to easing US-China tariff policies [5][6] - The agricultural price index's increase is linked to stable downstream consumer demand, with corn prices rising due to increased market demand and short-term supply constraints [6][7] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to persistent external uncertainties and insufficient effective demand in certain sectors [1][7]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，中美本周通话利好和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落，菜 粕带动和国内油厂豆粕库存开始累加，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面， 进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税谈判后续交互影响，短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2780（华东），基差-159，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存29.8万吨，上周20.69万吨，环比增加44.03%，去年同期85.61万吨， 同比减少65.19%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed up, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chips. The market is facing uncertainties due to overseas trade issues and domestic economic conditions. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line. The index is oscillating near the gap before the market's sharp decline on April 3rd, facing significant upward pressure. The market is in a policy vacuum period, lacking a clear short - term main line and expected to maintain an oscillating trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - All main and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed upward trends. For example, the IF main contract (2506) rose to 3842.4, up 15.6. The spreads between different contracts also changed, with most showing an upward trend. The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts mostly decreased. For instance, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 73.0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF and IC decreased, while that of IH increased. The net position of IM decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 29,186.00, down 347.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. The basis of the corresponding main contracts also changed, with most showing an upward trend. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 3868.74, up 16.7, and the IF main contract basis was - 26.3, up 0.9 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume, margin trading balance, and north - bound trading volume all increased. The proportion of rising stocks increased, while the Shibor decreased. Option prices and implied volatilities also changed. For example, A - share trading volume reached 11,774.13 billion yuan, up 135.83 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares, technical, and capital aspects showed upward trends. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. New export and import order indices increased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US will raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31 [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - Important economic data and events to watch include the US May ADP employment number on June 4 at 20:15, the Canadian central bank's interest rate decision on June 4 at 21:45, etc [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年6月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：6月首个交易日，债市窄幅波动，银行间主要利率债收益率多数小幅上行，国债期货收盘多数下跌。银行间市场资金面均衡偏松，主要回购加 权利率均有下行。中美关税战是一个长期的过程，短期的形势变化料不会明显影响债市预期；国内需要继续关注本月流动性情况、存单利率走向，以及政府 债供给等。 2、资金面：6月3日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4545亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量4545亿元，中标量4545亿元。 Wind数据显示，当日8300亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼3755亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.0741，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为-0.0 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2507：4060至4160区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，美豆优良率低于预期和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方 震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡收涨， 进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆继续增产预期压制盘面，但国产大豆性价比优势支撑 价格底部，短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4160，基差26，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存560.63万吨，上周586.83万吨，环比减少4.46%，去年同期450.53万吨， 同比 ...

Summary of Baia Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baia Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Sanitary products, specifically focusing on women's hygiene products Key Points and Arguments Recovery from Pandemic Impact - Baia Co., Ltd. has restored platform data to pre-pandemic levels through increased expenditure and adjusted marketing strategies, with Douyin leading, followed by Tmall and Pinduoduo [2][3] - The company plans to leverage the 618 shopping festival to eliminate the impact of two rounds of the pandemic and normalize e-commerce operations [3][27] Offline Business Performance - The offline business has been less affected by the pandemic, maintaining stable operations and expanding nationally as planned [5][7] - Seasonal sales fluctuations were noted, with strong performance during the Women's Day and Double Eleven events, while the second and third quarters are expected to be relatively flat [5][6] Inventory Management - The overlap of Women's Day and the 315 public opinion incident affected distributor inventory levels, but overall inventory has gradually returned to normal [5][6] - The company maintains low inventory in new regions to control risks, while the Sichuan-Chongqing region has higher inventory due to faster sales [6][7] Market Competition - The sanitary napkin market is highly competitive, with some brands exiting and new entrants emerging, leading to a revised expectation for overall e-commerce growth [10][11] - Consumer loyalty is strong, making it difficult for new brands to gain traction quickly [10] Product Differentiation - Baia Co., Ltd. emphasizes product differentiation through technical specifications and added value, such as probiotic products and organic cotton lines [11][12] - The company plans to continue iterating existing products and launching new ones annually to meet consumer demand [12][13] Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on offline channel expansion, particularly in new regions, while maintaining a strong online presence [4][8] - The profitability of various channels varies, with Douyin currently being the only loss-making channel, while offline channels are expected to achieve a net profit margin of around 20% [15][22] Regional Performance - The Sichuan-Chongqing region saw a 30% year-on-year growth in Q1, with expectations for high single-digit growth for the year [18] - The company anticipates that the Guangdong region will achieve breakeven in the second half of the year, with continued high growth [17] Future Outlook - The company aims for a 30% annual growth rate, with a revenue target exceeding 4 billion yuan for the year [27] - The 618 shopping festival is seen as a critical period for recovery, with plans to reassess annual targets post-event [27] Challenges and Risks - The ongoing U.S.-China tariff situation may impact raw material costs, but the company has made preparations to mitigate these effects [20] - The competitive landscape is expected to remain challenging, particularly with the entry of new brands and the need for effective marketing strategies [10][25] Conclusion - Baia Co., Ltd. is strategically positioned to recover from pandemic impacts and capitalize on market opportunities through a combination of online and offline strategies, product innovation, and careful inventory management. The company remains optimistic about achieving its growth targets despite competitive pressures and market challenges.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration is considered one of the most severe economic policy misjudgments in modern American history, leading to inflation, increased prices, and a regressive tax impact on the poorest Americans [1][2] - Tariffs have resulted in a significant increase in the U.S. trade deficit and higher unemployment rates, forcing factories to lay off workers, while failing to address the actual trade issues between the U.S. and China over the past seven years [1] - The current U.S. government's policies are influenced by ignorance of economic principles and political factors, with a trend of demonizing China becoming a convenient strategy [2] Group 2 - China is perceived as a more predictable and reliable trading partner compared to the U.S., which is seen as having incredible instability and unpredictability in its trade policies [2] - The unpredictability of U.S. policies creates uncertainty for businesses and foreign trade partners, making it difficult for them to make informed and rational decisions [2] - For stable U.S.-China relations, progress can be made despite the challenges, as even trade hawks in the current U.S. administration recognize that decoupling from China is not a viable option [3]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 06 月 03 日 固定收益研究 相关研究 1.《九月债券投资展望》2024-08-30 2.《债市周观察（08.12-08.18）——短期内较难有资 本利得空间》2024-08-19 3.《债市周观察（08.05-08.11）——回调仍在持续， 但卖出是阶段性的》2024-08-12 债市周观察（5.26-6.1）——蛰伏 5 月制造业 PMI 低位修复，但仍处于收缩区间。5 月 PMI 录得 49.5%，较 上月小幅回升 0.5 个百分点。其中，生产指数环比上涨 0.9 个百分点，新 订单指数环比回升 0.6 个百分点。当月，中美关税摩擦显现阶段性缓和迹 象并达成临时性经贸协定，抢出口效应得以延续，但 PMI 整体读数仍低于 荣枯线且增幅不及预期，显示修复动能仍然不足。 上周关税局势再生变数，不确定性陡然加剧。5 月 28 日，美国国际贸易法 院裁定禁止执行特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税的行 政令；29 日，联邦巡回上诉法院批准政府请求，暂缓执行该禁令；同日， 位于首都华盛顿的哥伦比亚特区联邦地区法院就特朗普政府依据《国际紧 急经济权力法 ...

长江期货棉花月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-06-03 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 反弹结束，震荡回落 01 走势回顾：5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 02 供应端分析：新季全球供应仍显宽松 03 需求端分析：下游需求总体尚稳 04 逻辑与展望：震荡回落 目 录 05 02 01 走势回顾：5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 01 5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 数据来源：博易大师、中国棉花信息网、TTEB、IFIND、长江期货 Ø 5月郑棉大幅反弹后震荡运行，宏观层面，月初中美开始接触直至联合声明发布，中美关税战趋向缓和，市场 情绪有所缓解，期价从低位一路上行，达到月内最大涨幅，5 月 28 日，美国联邦贸易法院裁决阻止了特朗普 对等关税，后续对等关税发展如何需暂时观望，不确定性较大。基本面来看，市场前期部分积压订单逐步发运， 有少量订单回流，但棉类产业链传导不明 ...