Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlines key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for policy coordination to stimulate economic potential and stabilize domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Direction - The conference aims for a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, focusing on "qualitative effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth" [2][7]. - The emphasis on "domestic supply strong, demand weak" indicates a shift towards addressing supply-side issues while promoting domestic demand [5][6]. - The five new "musts" introduced in the conference highlight the need for policy support and reform innovation, aiming for a more pronounced "cross-cycle" policy characteristic in 2026 [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The conference advocates for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and increasing the scale of new debt to support economic stability [8][9]. - There is a focus on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties to ensure basic public services [8][9]. - The need for fiscal expansion is underscored to counterbalance the impacts of declining real estate revenues and other economic pressures [9]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The conference calls for a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, with an emphasis on using various policy tools to support economic growth and stabilize prices [10][11]. - The approach includes maintaining liquidity and guiding financial institutions to support key areas such as domestic demand and technological innovation [10][11]. Group 4: Domestic Demand and Market Development - The conference prioritizes domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market through initiatives like a rural resident income increase plan [12][13]. - The strategy to enhance domestic demand is seen as crucial for maintaining economic resilience amid complex international conditions [12]. Group 5: Real Estate Market Stability - The conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including inventory reduction and supply optimization [14]. - There is an expectation for continued supportive measures for the real estate sector, particularly in major cities, while addressing the need for a new development model [14].

Core Points - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlined key strategies for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need to fully tap economic potential and focus on high-quality development [1] - The conference identified five "musts" for economic work, with a strong emphasis on internal demand and innovation as primary growth drivers [1] Group 1: Internal Demand and Consumption - The conference highlighted the importance of releasing consumption potential through various measures, including the implementation of special actions to boost consumption and the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, focusing on enhancing consumption capacity, willingness, and optimizing supply structure [2] - Policies introduced by six departments aim to provide a clear path for consumption growth, emphasizing service consumption and targeted supply for different demographics [2][3] Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - The conference addressed the decline in infrastructure investment in the second half of 2025, proposing an increase in central budget investment and optimizing the implementation of key projects [4] - Infrastructure investment in 2026 is expected to focus on high-quality development, with emphasis on new infrastructure, regional coordination, and enhancing public service infrastructure [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The conference called for optimizing supply and addressing "involution" competition, with a focus on expanding effective supply and improving industry governance [5][6] - The establishment of a unified national market and the elimination of local protectionism are key strategies to enhance competition and improve market conditions [6] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policy - The conference outlined two main directions for macroeconomic policy: increasing counter-cyclical adjustments and enhancing the quality and efficiency of policies [7] - The fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a focus on multiple objectives, including stabilizing growth and supporting innovation [8] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, balancing the need for economic stability and reasonable price recovery while supporting fiscal policy efforts [9]

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 会议首次使用了"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"的表述，还首次提出将"存量政策和增量政 策"纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。 在宏观政策相关的诸多新表述背后，多位受访者认为，明年的政策制定可能不会过度关注短期内的刺激 效果，更多着眼于"十五五"整体经济的长远发展规划，既关注新增政策的出台，也重视已有政策的落实 落细，体现对宏观政策协同以及落地效果的重视。 招联首席研究员董希淼也指出，"灵活"表明将根据内外部环境变化和经济发展需要，适时运用货币政策 工具，该出手时就出手；"高效"表明运用降准降息等工具时，要更多考虑政策有效性和针对性，既要加 大力度支持经济增长，也要加强防范资金空转、地方债务等风险。同时，要进一步畅通货币政策传导， 推动金融"活水"以更高效率滴灌实体经济和普通大众。 货币政策空间进一步加大 节奏将呈现小幅、灵活的特点 每年中央经济工作会议对于降息降准等工具运用的表述，都是市场关注的焦点。此次会议明确，明年货 币政策将继续适度宽松，但首次使用了"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"的表述。 在业内看来，此次会议通过"灵活高效"的四字表述，释放出了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlines the economic work for 2025 and sets the direction for 2026, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand in the short term and strengthening internal capabilities in the medium to long term [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy maintains a "more proactive and effective" tone, focusing on internal conditions and medium to long-term issues, with a shift in external environment assessment from "adverse" in 2024 to neutral in 2025 [1] - It is expected that the macroeconomic policy will continue the positive tone established in 2025 into 2026 [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - The emphasis is on domestic demand, with clear strategies for investment and service consumption, aiming to "stop the decline and stabilize investment," while maintaining a stable narrow deficit ratio [1] - The use of new policy financial tools will continue to support investment, and reforms will be implemented to promote service consumption, stimulating demand through supply [1] Group 3: Social Stability - Ensuring stable livelihoods remains a priority, with measures in healthcare, education, employment, and medical care, indicating a focus on both the quantity and quality of supply to stabilize livelihoods [1] - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable, balancing growth stability and expectations [1] Group 4: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to be more proactive, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, with the deficit ratio expected to remain stable in 2026 [2] - There will be a focus on standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies, aiming to address local protectionism and "involution" competition [2] Group 5: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to adopt an "appropriately loose" stance, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The shift from "timely" to "flexible and efficient" indicates a greater focus on the effectiveness of monetary policy, with an emphasis on both short-term and long-term adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues [2]

Group 1: Market Interest Rate and Bond Information - DRO01 closed at 1.28 with a -1.14bp change, DR007 at 1.45 with a -0.05bp change, GC001 at 1.26 with a -15.50bp change, GC007 at 1.51 with a 0.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.20bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.34 with a 0.70bp change, 5 - year at 1.62 with a -0.10bp change, 10 - year at 1.83 with a -1.40bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.13 with a -1.30bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 118.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 180.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Central Bank Policy and Economic Outlook - This week, there are 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, with 107.6 billion, 156.3 billion, 79.3 billion, 180.8 billion, and 139.8 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - The Political Bureau Meeting of the CPC Central Committee pointed out that next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [4] Group 3: Stock Index and Futures Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4552, down 0.86%; the SSE 50 at 2977, down 0.39%; the CSI 500 at 7083, down 1.02%; and the CSI 1000 at 7312, down 1.30%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8571 trillion yuan, an increase of 78.6 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - IF当月 closed at 4540, down 0.8%; IH当月 at 2970, down 0.4%; IC当月 at 7074, down 0.7%; and IM当月 at 7305, down 0.9% [5] - IF trading volume was 106,663, down 13.1%; IF open interest was 269,076, down 2.7%; IH trading volume was 46,276, down 9.6%; IH open interest was 93,141, down 3.7%; IC trading volume was 112,902, down 3.1%; IC open interest was 248,093, down 1.6%; IM trading volume was 191,043, up 7.7%; IM open interest was 368,357, down 0.2% [5] Group 4: Market Analysis and Investment Suggestions - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected overnight, but there was a large divergence within the Fed on the future rate - cut rhythm, with contradictions between inflation recovery and employment pressure [6] - The stock index weakened in a volatile manner throughout the day yesterday. The Politburo Meeting released limited incremental information recently, and the Central Economic Work Conference is expected to make more specific arrangements for next year's economic work [6] - In the short term, be vigilant against the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the meeting policies are implemented. In the long run, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year, providing a layout window. Investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [6] Group 5: Futures Contract Premium and Discount Information - IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 12.61%, 6.54%, 4.50%, and 4.15% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 11.08%, 4.92%, 1.89%, and 1.87% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.47%, 9.60%, 9.83%, and 10.63% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 4.61%, 12.37%, 12.55%, and 12.91% respectively [7]

央视网消息：中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议明确提出，明年经济工作在政策取向上要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，提 质增效这一表述有何不同？来看专家解读。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，这次会议强调"提质增效"。与以往相比，"质的有效提升""提质增效"等表述 凸显出在保持合理经济增速的同时，对发展质量和效益等方面的更高要求。2026年是"十五五"的开局之年，预计2026年宏观政策将更具前瞻 性，力求为未来五年奠定高质量发展基础。 中金首席宏观分析师张文朗称："在政策取向上，会议提出'提质增效'，我们认为这个要求的内涵是让财政、货币、产业等政策协同配 合，把传统工具和创新工具结合起来，把周期性政策和改革性政策结合起来，全方位地推动经济高质量增长。" 降准降息可期 资金流向实体经济"关键处" 中央经济工作会议提出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，同时，首次提 到要灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，这意味着2026货币政策操作将呈现何种变化？继续来看专家解读。 董希淼称："预计2026年存款利率和政策利率将进一步下降，贷款市 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic bond market continued to be bullish, mainly driven by the loose inter - bank funds. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and restarted balance - sheet expansion, with a neutral dot - plot result [8]. - The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all tenors declined, mostly by around 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.83%, down 0.5bp [9]. - The inter - bank liquidity further eased. There were 180.8 billion yuan in maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 118.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6.22 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds sentiment index was stable, and the funds trended towards looseness [10]. - The domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. The Politburo meeting in December set the tone of "continuing the moderately loose monetary policy", so the risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market in the bond market should be limited. However, the policy - makers mentioned cross - cycle adjustment again, indicating that loose policies may not be implemented in the short term. Coupled with institutional concentrated selling triggered by the new public - fund regulations, market short - term volatility has increased [11]. - From a valuation perspective, as the bond market has adjusted continuously, interest rates are returning to a reasonable pricing level. The deviation from the policy rate is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical median, indicating that the current market is not pricing in next year's interest - rate cuts, and futures have slightly over - adjusted compared to spot bonds. If market sentiment improves in the future, futures have some room for catch - up growth. In the short term, inflation remains weak, with PPI weaker than expected, suggesting that the pressure of oversupply is still high. The fundamentals still support the bond market. Overseas, the Fed's balance - sheet expansion is faster than expected, which is expected to maintain a loose overseas liquidity environment. The domestic expectation of monetary easing has not yet heated up, waiting for further policy guidance, and the strength of allocation funds remains cautious [12] Industry News - He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, met with Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. They exchanged views on the current international economic and financial situation and continued cooperation. He Lifeng said that China's economy has been performing steadily and well this year, and China is confident and capable of maintaining sustainable and healthy economic development [13]. - He Yadong, Spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the Ministry of Commerce will take the full - scale customs - clearance operation as an opportunity to vigorously promote institutional opening - up and strive to build the Hainan Free Trade Port into an important gateway leading China's opening - up in the new era [13]. - He Yadong mentioned in a regular press conference that China and the EU held a trade - remedy dialogue this week and will continue consultations next week. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products proposed a solution representing the industry's overall stance, and the two sides have achieved certain results through multiple rounds of consultations [14]. - At a regular press conference, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded to a question about Mexico's new import - export tariff bill. He emphasized that going against the trend of economic globalization and practicing protectionism is harmful to both parties. He hoped that Mexico would correct its wrong practices and work together with China to maintain the overall situation of bilateral economic and trade relations [14] Data Overview Treasury Bond Futures Quotes - The trading data of treasury bond futures on December 11, including contract information such as TL2512, TL2603, etc., covering pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open - interest change [6] Money Market - The inter - bank funds further loosened. The central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 6.22 billion yuan in the open market. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits decreased by 1.14bp to 1.2768%, the 7 - day rate fluctuated around 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate - of - deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]

会议特别强调"一体推进教育科技人才发展方案"，还点名打造京津冀、长三角、粤港澳三大国际科创中心。更值得关注的是，"人工智能 +"要"深化拓展"并"完善治理"——既要跑得快，也要跑得稳。 央视网消息：中央经济工作会议明确了明年经济工作的重点，更透露出不少新提法、新信号。来看总台央视记者王雷——财经老王带来的 解读。 先说财政政策。大家熟悉的育儿补贴、家电以旧换新、养老服务支持，背后都有财政"真金白银"的支撑。明年，我国将继续实施"更加积 极的财政政策"。跟去年的"提高赤字率、增加发行超长期特别国债"相比，今年变成了"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"。听着 是不是有点低调？其实不然。老王问了专家：2026年，国家要把每一分钱都用在刀刃上——该给养老的给养老，该补科技的补科技，该稳企业 的稳企业。说白了，财政要"提质增效"。 再看货币政策。会议强调要"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"。逆周期调节是通过降息、扩大财政支出等措施稳定经济；而跨周期调节则是 强调政策的连续性和可持续性。"逆周期+跨周期"意味着政策将从应急救火转向长期筑基，既要稳住当下，更要布局未来，提前五年甚至十年 布局，解决人口老龄化、产业升级等 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic policies and their implications for various sectors, particularly focusing on the real estate market, investment strategies, and monetary and fiscal policies in China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Policy Shift**: The central economic work conference emphasizes a transition from extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments to normalized management, focusing on cross-cycle adjustments, indicating a paradigm shift in policy [1][9]. 2. **Real Estate Market Measures**: Specific measures for the real estate market include controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and improving supply quality. The reform of the housing provident fund system is highlighted, aiming to stabilize the market [1][3][4]. 3. **Investment Focus**: The conference stresses the need to stabilize investment, particularly in infrastructure projects, urban renewal, and quality housing construction, to counteract the decline in investment growth [1][2][7]. 4. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: While the possibility of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions is mentioned, the emphasis is on flexible and efficient application, suggesting limited room for significant cuts [1][6][10]. 5. **Fiscal Policy Projections**: Fiscal policy is expected to maintain necessary deficits, with a projected increase in fiscal spending of 6% to 7% in 2025, primarily to support infrastructure and consumption [1][2][5]. 6. **Future Demand Drivers**: Potential demand growth is anticipated in real estate, infrastructure, urban renewal, service industry openings, high-end service exports, manufacturing exports, and consumer spending [1][7]. 7. **Economic Work Background for 2026**: The economic work for 2026 is based on a long-term positive outlook, despite external challenges and domestic supply-demand conflicts, emphasizing the importance of tapping into economic potential [1][8]. 8. **Supply-Side Structural Reforms**: The focus on supply-side structural reforms is reiterated, aiming to optimize supply and activate existing resources, indicating a strategic shift from previous years [1][11]. 9. **Risk Prevention Measures**: Risk prevention priorities have shifted, with a reduced emphasis on risk management compared to previous years, reflecting a more optimistic view on internal and external risks [1][12]. 10. **A-Share Market Strategy**: The A-share market strategy is characterized by a moderate tone, with expectations of a spring market rally potentially starting in mid-December, focusing on domestic demand and technology sectors [1][18][19]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Debt and Fiscal Discipline**: The conference highlights the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline, with local debt levels set at 4.9 trillion, ensuring effective use of funds [1][5][13]. 2. **Consumer Expectations**: There is a cautious approach towards consumer spending, with expectations for a more conservative outlook compared to previous plans [1][14]. 3. **Investment in People and Goods**: The integration of investments in goods and people is emphasized as crucial for addressing current economic conditions [1][8]. 4. **Market Environment Stability**: The conference aims to create a stable macroeconomic environment, which is deemed beneficial for stock selection and alpha opportunities [1][23]. 5. **Sector-Specific Recommendations**: Recommendations for growth sectors include aviation equipment, AI chains, and power equipment, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals are also highlighted [1][20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape and sector-specific strategies moving forward.

China: Central Economic Work Conference readout suggests modestly pro-growth policy stance 12 December 2025 | 2:22AM HKT Economics Research The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) was held on 10-11 December, chaired by President Xi. Policymakers reviewed economic work in 2025 and set the macro policy stance for 2026. In our view, the signals from CEWC appear modestly more pro-growth than the December Politburo meeting three days ago, as policymakers this time emphasized growth challenges, highlig ...