12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 12月11日，中信证券首席经济学家明明在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）专访时指出， 本次会议提及"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，表述重点更多落在政策的效率和主动性上。 NBD：对于本次中央经济工作会议整体政策取向，请问您作何评述？ 明明：对于明年经济工作的政策取向，本次会议提到要"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能"。 我们认为，明年的政策制定可能不会过度关注短期内的刺激效果，更多着眼于"十五五"整体经济的长远 发展规划，既关注新增政策的出台，也重视已有政策的落实落细，体现对宏观政策协同以及落地效果的 重视。 此外，会议提出"将各类经济政策和非经济政策、存量政策和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估"， 也意味着增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性将是明年经济工作开展的重要导向。 NBD：本次中央经济工作会议提到，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕。请问 您对此有哪些解读？ 明明："灵活高效"降准降息，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。货币政策方面，政策基调继续维持"适度 宽松"，而具体操 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since November, global long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with 30-year government bond rates rising across various countries, indicating a shift in monetary policy expectations and market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Yield Increase - The catalyst for the rise in yields is the adjustment in global monetary policy expectations, driven by inflation pressures in countries like Japan, Australia, and Canada, leading to increased interest rate hike expectations [2]. - In the Eurozone, a rebound in November inflation data has led markets to speculate on future rate hikes, while the U.S. has seen a convergence of rate cut expectations due to unclear future guidance from the Federal Reserve [2]. - China's recent monetary policy report hints at "moderate easing," suggesting limited room for rate cuts, contributing to the overall hawkish signals from major central banks [2]. Group 2: Underlying Issues - The persistent weakness in the overseas long-term bond market is attributed to a vicious cycle of high debt and high inflation, with policy changes being short-term factors [3]. - The global inflationary environment has shifted to a higher rate era, while major economies continue to pursue fiscal expansion, exacerbating debt levels and maintaining a tight policy stance [3]. - In China, the rebound in long-term bond yields is influenced by a preference for equities over bonds, as stock market returns appear more attractive [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of long-term bonds is increasing, with over 29% of domestic government bonds maturing in over 10 years by year-end, while demand from institutions is weakening [4]. - Market expectations for a weak domestic bond market in the coming year have reduced the urgency for year-end allocations, and various institutional constraints are limiting demand for long-term bonds [4]. Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - The outlook for long-term rates varies globally, with countries like Japan, Australia, and Canada facing upward pressure on yields due to ongoing rate hike expectations [5]. - In contrast, the U.S. and U.K. are in a rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a stabilization of long-term yields at high levels [5]. - In China, the probability of long-term bond yields rising in tandem with global trends is low, as domestic inflation is expected to recover moderately and monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative [6]. Group 5: Currency Implications - The divergence in global monetary policies is expected to enhance the attractiveness of non-U.S. currencies, particularly as the U.S. is anticipated to cut rates more aggressively than non-U.S. economies [7]. - Structural changes in the foreign exchange market suggest that currencies with strong fundamentals, such as the Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan, may experience appreciation driven by interest rate differentials [7].

责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必 要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政 补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必 要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政 补贴政策。重视解决地方财政困难，兜牢基层"三保"底线。严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 = 宏观金融数据日报 | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਮੇ | IF升贴水 | 15.57% | 7.35% | 4.58% | 4.33% | | 贴 | IH升贴水 | 10. 64% | 4.63% | 2.20% | 2.09% | | 水 | IC升贴水 | 19. 15% | 12.43% | 10.81% | 11.30% | | 情 Я | IM升贴水 | 20. 17% | 15.75% | 14.05% | 13.68% | 注:括号里的数值为年化计算后的升贴水率(标绿为升水,标红为贴水)。 数据来源:wind 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 免责 、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据 此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任 ...

截至2025年12月11日 10:57，中证A500指数(000510)上涨0.04%，成分股南都电源(300068)上涨11.24%， 迈为股份(300751)上涨11.23%，中国天楹(000035)上涨10.09%，立昂微(605358)上涨10.01%，普天科技 (002544)上涨10.00%。A500ETF基金(512050)多空胶着，最新报价1.16元。 流动性方面，A500ETF基金(512050)盘中换手16.95%，成交38.97亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截 至12月10日，A500ETF基金(512050)近1周日均成交69.47亿元。 从资金净流入方面来看，A500ETF基金(512050)近7天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得8.16亿元净流 入，合计"吸金"23.70亿元，日均净流入达3.39亿元。 消息面上，世界银行12月11日在京发布最新一期中国经济简报，相较上期简报，对2025年中国经济增速 预期上调0.4个百分点。世行方面表示，中国政府更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策支撑了国 内消费和投资。同时，中国出口市场更加多元化，为保持出口韧性提供了支撑。 东莞证券指出， ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月10日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 112.610 | 112.900 | 112.950 | 112.950 | 0.340 | 0.30 | 83 | 4800 | -496 | | TL2603 | 112.450 | 112.330 | 112.790 | 112.680 | 0.340 | 0.30 | ...

中国11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，预期0.7%，前值0.2%；11月PPI同比下降2.2%，预期降2%，前值降2.1%。 国家统计局表示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月 扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动，扣除食品和 能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影 响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降2.2%。CPI涨幅扩大或主要受到食品项 同比增速在低基数背景下由负转正支撑，但是非食品项相对弱于季节性，冬季供暖需求和"反内卷"则支 撑PPI环比延续正增长，上游改善幅度强于下游，内需仍对价格上涨形成制约。 【操作建议】 12月政治局会议提及"提质增效"、"逆周期与跨期周期"，指向政策落地质量效果的重要性，逆周期政策 或不会大幅加码，增加跨周期调节的指导思想，降准降息等总量政策可能相对谨慎，不过赤字率也可能 不会大幅上升，财政货币仍将增强协同。当前10年期国债在1.85%阶段高点附近仍有阻力，对应T2603 合约在107.6附近或有支撑 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月10日 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251210 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.积极政策基调有望延续，内需战略定位进一步提升——2025年12月政治局会议学习 ➢ 2.出口韧性延续——国内观察：2025年11月进出口数据 ➢ 1.国务院总理李强同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会 ➢ 2.特朗普称将允许英伟达向中国出售H200芯片 | 1. 重点推荐 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 积极政策基调有望延续，内需战略定位进一步提升——2025 年 月政治局 12 | | | 会议学习 | 3 | | 年 1.2. 出口韧性延续——国内观察：2025 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stability of the fixed income market is recovering, with a focus on the liquidity situation and upcoming policy signals by the end of the year [1][2][3] - In October, the excess reserve ratio decreased by approximately 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly below the expected 1.3%, primarily due to an increase in government deposits [1][19] - Government deposits rose by 625.8 billion yuan in October, exceeding the expected 378.1 billion yuan, which contributed to the lower-than-expected excess reserve ratio [1][19][20] Group 2 - In November, the broad fiscal deficit is expected to be relatively high, but with a significant increase in government debt net payments, government deposits are projected to decrease by about 250 billion yuan, which will provide some liquidity support [2][27] - The report anticipates an increase in monetary issuance of approximately 140 billion yuan in November, with a rise in reserve requirements by about 110 billion yuan [2][28] - The central bank's net repurchase operations in November are expected to result in a net withdrawal of 5,562 billion yuan, while MLF net investment is projected at 1,000 billion yuan [2][42] Group 3 - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, with a focus on maintaining stability in the financial system despite some tightening in the money market [3][55] - The average issuance scale of key-term government bonds in November decreased compared to October, indicating a potential shift in government financing strategies [2][33] - The report notes that the central bank's net purchase of government bonds in November was only 50 billion yuan, which is lower than market expectations, reflecting a cautious approach to liquidity management [4][57] Group 4 - The report discusses the implications of the central bank's emphasis on "cross-cycle" and "counter-cyclical" adjustments, indicating a desire to manage the growth of social financing and M2 in relation to nominal GDP [3][45] - It is noted that the central bank's actions may be a response to previous recommendations from the National People's Congress regarding monetary policy adjustments [4][48] - The report suggests that while there is a potential for interest rate cuts in Q1 of the following year, the timing may be influenced by the overall economic conditions and fiscal policies [4][11]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面继续下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3079 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 44 元/吨，跌幅为 1.41%，持仓增加 11.6 万手。现货价格继续下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.26 万吨。中央政治局会议指出明年经济工作要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，相对 2024 年会议未再提 | | | | "超常规"，但提了"跨周期"，或预示 2026 年将会更加注重存量政策效应的释放，增量政策加码的可能 | | | | 性有所降低。煤焦价格近日连续下跌，钢厂利润扩大，对黑色系商品走势形成拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍 | | | | 窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格有所下跌，收于 757.5 元/吨，较前 ...