Group 1 - The current spot gold price is fluctuating around $4,195 per ounce, following a significant increase in recent weeks, leading to profit-taking ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices found support at the 21-day moving average of $4,005, suggesting a potential short-term bottom has formed [1] - Market expectations indicate a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting, which is expected to support gold prices as low interest rates favor non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - The upcoming September CPI report is anticipated to show a core inflation rate of 3.1%, and if the data meets or falls below expectations, it may further strengthen rate cut expectations, supporting a rebound in gold prices [3] - Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China relations, has been a key driver for rising gold prices [3] - Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including the temporary shelving of a meeting between Putin and Trump, and Ukraine's willingness to support a ceasefire through diplomatic means, have created cautious optimism, although geopolitical risks remain high [3]

Group 1 - South Africa's inflation rate rose slightly to 3.4% in September, up from 3.3% in August, driven by increases in housing, utilities, and food services [1] - Food price inflation decreased to 4.4% year-on-year in September, down from 5.2% in August, aligning with the decline in international agricultural prices [1] - The South African Reserve Bank has already cut interest rates three times this year, but paused in September; the next policy statement is scheduled for November 20 [1] Group 2 - The strengthening of the rand, declining inflation expectations, and sluggish economic growth may prompt the South African Reserve Bank to further ease monetary policy [2]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic forecasts for Uzbekistan, indicating an increase in both economic growth and inflation for the years 2025-2026 [1] Economic Growth - The GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan in 2025 has been raised from 6.5% to 6.8% [1] - For 2026, the GDP growth forecast has been adjusted from 5.8% to 6% [1] Inflation Rates - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has increased from 8.4% to 9.1% [1] - The inflation rate forecast for 2026 has been revised from 6.5% to 7.1% [1] Current Account Deficit - The current account deficit is expected to improve due to rising global gold prices, with the 2025 deficit projected to be approximately 2.4% of GDP, down from a previous estimate of 5% [1] - For 2026, the current account deficit is forecasted to be around 4.6% of GDP, slightly lower than the earlier prediction of 4.8% [1]

Core Insights - The UK inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.8% for September, defying expectations from economists and the Bank of England [1] - The core inflation rate decreased to 3.5% in September from 3.6% in August [1] - The upcoming Bank of England meeting on November 6 will likely see a cautious approach due to persistent inflation and weak growth [1] Inflation Data - The UK inflation rate has held steady at 3.8% for three consecutive months, contrary to predictions that it would peak at 4% in September [1] - The core inflation rate for September was reported at 3.5%, a slight decrease from the previous month [1] - Price changes in various categories, including rising gasoline and airfare prices, contributed to the overall stability of inflation [1] Economic Implications - The Bank of England is unlikely to lower the benchmark interest rate of 4% given the unchanged CPI data and minimal month-on-month growth of only 0.1% in August [1] - Economists suggest that the persistent inflation and lack of economic growth will lead the Bank of England to maintain a cautious stance in its monetary policy [1]

英国国家统计局22日公布的数据显示，英国9月份通胀率保持在3.8%，与上月持平，低于市场预期。此 前，经济学家普遍预计英国9月通胀率将升至4%。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada rose to 2.4% in September, driven by increases in grocery prices and rent [1] - Excluding the impact of falling gasoline prices, the CPI would have reached 2.6% [1] - The Bank of Canada typically aims to maintain an inflation rate around 2% [1] - A monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 29, with the inflation data serving as a significant indicator [1]

（原标题：克罗地亚9月通胀率为4.2%） 据《克通社》10月15日报道，克罗地亚统计局（DZS）对消费者价格指数的第二次估算显示，2025 年9月的通胀率同比增长4.2%，环比增涨了0.4%，年通胀率再次回升。 从ECOICOP主要类别来看，住房、水、电、天然气和其他燃料的价格年涨幅最高，平均为8.8%。 其次是餐饮和酒店业（上涨7%）、食品和非酒精饮料（上涨5.7%）、酒精饮料和烟草（上涨5.3%）以 及医疗卫生、杂项商品和服务（上涨4.5%）。娱乐和文化用品价格上涨3.2%，通讯价格上涨2.4%，家 具、设备和维修价格上涨0.2%。教育价格下降1%，交通价格下降0.8%。 ...

（原标题：9月阿塞拜疆通胀率达5.7%） 阿塞拜疆"Apa"网10月13日报道，阿塞拜疆国家统计委员会数据显示，2025年9 月，阿通胀率升至5.7%。其中，食品、酒精和烟草制品通胀率为7.9%，非食品 产品通胀率为2.4%，居民有偿服务通胀率为5.3%。 ...

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth to rise from 3% to 3.2% by 2025 [1] - There are increasing signs that the negative impacts of protectionist measures are becoming evident, with high uncertainty in trade policies expected to persist through 2025 and 2026 [1] - The IMF forecasts Iran's economic growth rate to reach 0.6% in 2025, with an inflation rate of 42.4% and an unemployment rate of 9.2% [1] Group 2 - The World Bank recently estimated Iran's economic growth rate for this year to be -1.7% [1]

格隆汇10月16日｜美联储理事沃勒：如果宽松的金融条件将引发经济繁荣，那么这种迹象本应出现在劳 动力市场；但到目前为止，并未出现。我的工作与劳动力市场有关，而目前情况并不乐观。如果美联储 继续下调政策利率，抵押贷款应会面临下行压力。许多人工智能支出涉及行业重新配置。我们的估计 是，剔除关税后的通胀率约为2.5%。似乎没有什么迹象表明通胀会大幅上升。来自各方的数据都在讲 述就业市场疲软的故事。美联储褐皮书并未显示形势一片大好。今年年底GDP可能走弱。对人工智能的 担忧在于，这是否是劳动力需求的结构性变化，而美联储的周期性工具无法应对。 来源：格隆汇APP ...