欧央行表示，最新评估进一步确认通胀有望在中期内稳定于2%的目标水平。根据最新预测，2025 年整体通胀率平均预计为2.1%，2026年为1.9%，2027年为1.8%，2028年将回归至2%。若排除能源与食 品价格，核心通胀预计在2025年达2.4%，2026年为2.2%，2027年降至1.9%，2028年同样回升至2%。 央行指出，2026年通胀预测值较此前有所上调，主要原因是服务业通胀预计放缓速度将低于此前预 期。同时，经济增长前景较9月预测更为乐观，主要得益于内需支撑。欧央行强调，其决心确保通胀在 中期内稳定在2%的目标范围内。此次决议发布之际，欧元区11月年化通胀率为2.1%，与10月持平，仍 略高于央行设定的中期目标。（驻波黑使馆经商处） 波黑《新闻报》12月17日报道。欧央行（ECB）近日宣布维持三项关键利率不变，符合市场普遍预 期。其中，主要存款利率稳定保持在2%，为2022年11月以来的最低水平；主要再融资利率与边际贷款 利率分别维持在2.15%和2.40%。此次利率决议标志着欧央行已连续第四次保持利率水平不变。 （原标题：欧洲央行维持利率不变，主要存款利率稳定在2%） ...

中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.86%，个股方面，小马智行涨近12%，禾赛科技涨超7%，小鹏汽车涨近7%，再鼎医药涨约5%。 美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨0.38%，标普500指数涨0.88%，纳指涨1.31%。本周，道指跌0.67%，标普500指数涨0.1%，纳指涨0.48%。 谈及劳动力市场，威廉姆斯称"完全没有出现任何急剧恶化的迹象"。 美国总统特朗普正在推进美联储主席人选遴选，已与现任理事沃勒进行了深入面试，双方就劳动力市场及如何刺激就业创造展开详细讨论。此次面试被高 级政府官员描述为"非常成功"，但特朗普尚未做出最终决定。 贝莱德首席投资官里克·里德将于今年最后一周在海湖庄园就美联储主席职位接受面试。特朗普似乎正将关注点转向就业市场。 美国最新公布的11月非农就业报告显示失业率从9月的4.4%上升至4.6%，而薪资增长几乎停滞。 特朗普在周三演讲中称："今天工作的人数比美国历史上任何时候都多。自我上任以来创造的所有工作岗位100%来自私营部门。" 实习编辑:金怡杉 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 此外，现货黄金也拉升飘红，最终收于4340美元上方。 消息面上，美联储再次传来大消息。 纽约联储主 ...

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16%, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut [1] - The Russian economy is returning to a balanced growth trajectory, with a decrease in persistent inflation indicators observed in November [1] - Future adjustments to the benchmark interest rate will depend on the sustainability of inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations [1] Group 2 - The overall economic activity in Russia continues to show moderate growth, although growth rates vary across different sectors [2] - The monetary environment has generally loosened, supported by increases in household income, credit, and budget expenditures, which bolster domestic demand [2] - The labor market tightness is gradually easing, while the unemployment rate remains at historical lows, and wage growth continues to exceed productivity growth [2] Group 3 - The Central Bank of Russia will hold a board meeting on February 13, 2026, to review subsequent adjustments to the benchmark interest rate [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated interest rate decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), highlighting differing economic conditions in the UK and Eurozone that influence these expectations [1][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The BoE is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points, although there is a possibility of maintaining the current rate [1][9]. - The ECB is anticipated to keep its three key policy rates unchanged, with a potential for future rate cuts depending on economic conditions [1][9]. - The ECB's current key rates are 2.15% for the refinancing rate, 2.4% for the marginal lending rate, and 2% for the deposit facility rate [4][12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's unemployment rate has remained stable at 6.4% for six consecutive months, and the core inflation rate has been steady at 2.4% for three months [4][12]. - In contrast, the UK's unemployment rate is projected to rise steadily until 2025, indicating potential economic recession, which may compel the BoE to reduce rates to stimulate growth [4][12]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The EUR/USD currency pair is currently in a mid-term sideways trading pattern that began on June 19, indicating a consensus among market participants regarding the trading range [7][15]. - The upper limit of this range is identified at 1.1917, while the lower limit is at 1.1467, with the latter forming a base for a potential upward movement [7][15].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience of Mauritania's economy, projecting a strong growth rate of 6.3% for 2024 and a low inflation rate of below 2% for 2025, driven by effective macroeconomic policies and ongoing reforms aimed at diversifying the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Mauritania's economy is expected to grow by 6.3% in 2024, reflecting a strong performance despite global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1] - The inflation rate is projected to be below 2% in 2025, attributed to the implementation of macroeconomic policies and the central bank's efforts to absorb excess liquidity [1] Group 2: Policy and Reform - The Minister of Economy and Development praised the ongoing reforms aimed at building a strong, diversified, inclusive, and sustainable economic foundation [1] - The central bank's measures to enhance market transparency and the effectiveness of monetary policy through a competitive interbank platform for the determination of the ouguiya exchange rate were emphasized [1] Group 3: Foreign Exchange and Reserves - The exchange rate volatility is expected to stabilize at 1.6% for 2024-2025, indicating a stable foreign exchange environment [1] - Foreign exchange reserves are nearing $2 billion, showcasing the effectiveness of monetary policies implemented since the end of 2023 [1]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to a rebound in gold prices, which reached a two-month high during the trading session [3][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, below the 3.1% market expectation and the 3.0% increase from September [3] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.6%, marking the lowest level since March 2021 and also falling short of the 3.0% forecast [3] - The unexpected decline in CPI has bolstered expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with traders anticipating two rate cuts next year [3][4] Inflation Data - The CPI data for December 2025 is the lowest since July, with a cumulative increase of 0.2% from September to November [3] - The Federal Reserve's dovish faction is likely to gain support from this CPI data, advocating for further rate cuts [3] Market Reactions - The decline in inflation has led to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing policies, which typically benefit precious metals like gold [3] - Current market pricing indicates a potential rate cut of approximately 62 basis points in 2026, although the probability of a rate cut in January remains low at 28.8% [3] Gold Market Analysis - February gold futures saw a decline of $8.3, closing at $4,334.08, with the next target for bulls being the historical resistance level of $4,433.00 [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,433.00 and $4,450.00, while support levels are at $4,338.00 and $4,297.40 [5]

Precious Metals Futures - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will rise by 14% to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, with potential upside risks [1] - On December 19, New York futures gold prices rose, breaking through $4,380 per ounce (up 0.14%), $4,390 per ounce (up 0.37%), and ultimately surpassing $4,400 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.60% [2][3][4] - Spot gold also increased, breaking through $4,350 per ounce (up 0.29%), $4,360 per ounce (up 0.55%), and further rising to $4,370 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.74% [5][6][7] - However, on December 18, precious metal prices experienced a pullback, with New York futures gold falling below $4,340 per ounce (down 0.78%) and spot gold below $4,310 per ounce (down 0.65%) [8][9] - Silver showed weaker performance, with New York futures silver falling below $65 per ounce (down 2.85%) and spot silver also below $65 per ounce (down 1.84%) [10][11] Base Metals Futures - Goldman Sachs reaffirms that copper prices will reach $15,000 per ton by 2035 and continues to recommend a long position in copper and a short position in aluminum for contracts expiring in December 2027 [12] Energy and Shipping Futures - In the energy market, U.S. natural gas futures prices fell over 3.00% on December 19, currently reported at $3.233 per million British thermal units, with the decline expanding to 4.00%, now at $3.199 per million British thermal units [14][15] - The EIA natural gas report shows that as of the week ending December 12, U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 35,790 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 1,670 billion cubic feet from the previous week and down 610 billion cubic feet year-on-year (a 1.7% decline), while being 320 billion cubic feet above the 5-year average (a 0.9% increase) [16] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2026, the average price of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil will drop to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively [17] Macroeconomic and Market Impact - The European Central Bank's policy direction is under scrutiny, with several officials indicating that the rate-cutting cycle is likely over, maintaining deposit rates at around 2% unless a significant shock occurs; however, discussions on rate hikes are considered "premature" [18][19] - The ECB also forecasts that inflation rates will be below 2% in the first quarter of 2026 and from the third quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2027 [20] - In the U.S., concerns about premature significant rate cuts were expressed, while the White House's National Economic Council director believes there is substantial room for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [21][23] - Several banks have recently lowered U.S. dollar deposit rates, with one bank reporting a decrease of 0.05 percentage points in its latest dollar time deposit rates [24]

作者：戴维・麦克休 欧洲经济显现温和回升迹象，这一态势或促使欧洲央行在周四的货币政策会议上，连续第四次维持利率 不变。 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜・拉加德在近期会议上曾表示，当前基准利率（存款便利利率）维持在 2%， 货币政策 "处于适宜水平"。分析师预计，在央行利率决策委员会公布决议后的新闻发布会上，拉加德 或将沿用这一表述，或发表类似言论。 欧洲央行上一次降息是在今年 6 月的货币政策会议上。 凯投宏观欧洲经济学家阿德里安・普雷蒂约翰指出，标普全球 12 月采购经理人指数虽小幅回落，但仍 显示年底前企业活动保持扩张态势，这进一步印证了市场预期 —— 欧元区 20 国的季度经济环比增速将 维持在 0.3% 左右。 这一表现好于今年夏季的市场担忧。彼时欧美贸易谈判陷入动荡，最终美国总统特朗普宣布对欧洲商品 征收 15% 的进口关税。 尽管关税举措对欧洲出口商不利，但特朗普此前曾威胁要征收更高税率。如今欧盟委员会与美方达成的 协议，似乎已消除贸易政策的不确定性，为企业决策提供了便利。 分析师称，目前欧洲经济无需借助降息刺激，亦可平稳运行。 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜・拉加德在近期会议上曾表示，当前基准利率（存款便利利率 ...

因美国政府停摆，多项核心经济数据被迫调整发布日程，而将于周四早间出炉的通胀数据，将是本轮调 整后发布的最后一份重磅经济报告。市场预计，报告将显示 11 月物价涨幅仍高于美联储设定的目标。 11 月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告定于美国东部时间周四上午 8：30 （北京时间周四晚9:30）发布，整 体物价同比涨幅预计达到 3.1%。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心消费者价格指数同比涨幅预计同样为 3.1%。 此前有通胀数据记录的 9 月，整体 CPI 与核心 CPI 的同比涨幅均为 3.0%。 由于美国政府停摆，劳工统计局此前取消了 10 月通胀报告的发布，因此本次公布的 11 月数据，将是自 9 月以来的首份官方通胀报告。这也意味着，11 月整体 CPI 和核心 CPI 将不会发布环比涨幅数据。 美联储在上周公布的经济预期中指出，在 2025 年年底连续三次降息 25 个基点后，2026 年全年或将仅 再降息一次。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：郭明煜 因美国政府停摆，多项核心经济数据被迫调整发布日程，而将于周四早间出炉的通胀数据，将是本轮调 整后发布的最后一份重磅经济报告。市场预计， ...

智通财经APP注意到，华尔街正焦急等待周四发布的11月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告，这将是自上个月 创纪录的美国政府停摆结束以来，该时期的首份数据读数。 根据道琼斯调查的经济学家预测，这份追踪民众为一系列商品和服务支付的平均价格变化的报告，预计 将显示12个月通胀率为3.1%。在剔除食品和能源后，核心CPI的年度增长率预计为3.0%。 美国劳工统计局(BLS)表示，此次发布"将不包括由于10月数据缺失而导致的2025年11月环比百分比变 化"。由于政府停摆，该机构在11月下旬(即美联储今年最后一次会议前几周)取消了10月的通胀报告。9 月的CPI数据——即停摆期间唯一发布的经济数据，也是目前最新发布的报告——显示总体CPI和核心 CPI的年度读数均为3.0%。 盈透证券高级经济学家何塞·托雷斯在接受采访时表示："'2字头'和'3字头'之间的心理差异将是至关重 要的。" 虽然共识预期显示该月年度通胀率将触及3%的门槛，但这位高级经济学家预计总体和核心读数将低于 预期，均为2.9%。不过他认为，总体通胀率可能的范围在2.9%到3.1%之间。 如果报告显示读数为2.9%，这可能会为股市进入2026年提供一些积极动力 ...