Group 1 - Japanese authorities are closely monitoring exchange rate movements with a sense of urgency, as stated by Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki [1] - The Japanese yen experienced significant volatility following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with the yen dropping to 159.23 against the dollar before recovering to 157.37 [1] - The Japanese government has previously intervened in the currency market, spending nearly $100 billion to support the yen when it fell below the 160 mark in 2024, indicating a potential reference point for future interventions [1] Group 2 - Economist Taro Kimura noted that Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda mixed hawkish and dovish signals to maintain flexibility for future interest rate hikes, highlighting the risk of a weak yen raising import prices and inflation expectations [2] - Concerns over increased government spending potentially exacerbating Japan's debt burden have led to a record high in 40-year government bond yields, contributing to the downward pressure on the yen [2]

关于通胀形势，日本央行认为，2026年上半年随着大米等食品价格回落，物价涨幅或回落至2%以下， 但全年来看物价仍将呈缓慢上涨态势。央行继续将2025财年通胀预期维持在2.7%，同时将2026财年通 胀预期由1.8%上调至1.9%。 日本央行23日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，维持现行利率水平不变，并上调2026财年（2026 年4月至2027年3月）通胀预期。 日本央行当天发表公告，宣布将政策利率维持在0.75%左右。央行同时发表经济与物价形势展望报告， 将2025财年日本经济增长率上调至0.9%，2026财年预计经济增幅为1.0%。 来源：新华社 作者: 刘春燕 李诗萌 由于日本首相高市早苗近日再次释放减税信号，日本债市汇市出现剧烈震荡，日元急剧走软，长期利率 大幅上扬。当天，市场高度关注日本央行行长植田和男在记者会上的表态，日本央行会否被迫放缓货币 政策正常化步伐，重新开始购买国债，成为市场关注焦点。鉴于植田当天并未就重启购债释放信号，仅 重申未来将视经济和物价发展情况推进加息，市场人士认为，日本当前的日元贬值和长期利率上扬恐将 持续。 ...

新华社东京1月23日电（记者刘春燕 李诗萌）日本央行23日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布， 维持现行利率水平不变，并上调2026财年（2026年4月至2027年3月）通胀预期。 关于通胀形势，日本央行认为，2026年上半年随着大米等食品价格回落，物价涨幅或回落至2%以下， 但全年来看物价仍将呈缓慢上涨态势。央行继续将2025财年通胀预期维持在2.7%，同时将2026财年通 胀预期由1.8%上调至1.9%。 由于日本首相高市早苗近日再次释放减税信号，日本债市汇市出现剧烈震荡，日元急剧走软，长期利率 大幅上扬。当天，市场高度关注日本央行行长植田和男在记者会上的表态，日本央行会否被迫放缓货币 政策正常化步伐，重新开始购买国债，成为市场关注焦点。鉴于植田当天并未就重启购债释放信号，仅 重申未来将视经济和物价发展情况推进加息，市场人士认为，日本当前的日元贬值和长期利率上扬恐将 持续。（完） 日本央行当天发表公告，宣布将政策利率维持在0.75%左右。央行同时发表经济与物价形势展望报告， 将2025财年日本经济增长率上调至0.9%，2026财年预计经济增幅为1.0%。 ...

新华财经东京1月23日电 日本央行23日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，维持现行利率水平不 变，将2026财年（2026年4月至2027年3月）通胀预期由1.8%上调至1.9%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 日本央行当天发表公告说，央行决定在下次议息会之前将政策利率（无担保隔夜拆借利率）保持在 0.75%左右。公告显示，出席货币政策会议的9名央行审议委员意见出现分歧，审议委员高田创加息至 1.0%的提议遭到其他8名审议委员的否决。 日本央行当天同时发表经济与物价形势展望报告，将2025财年日本经济增长预期上调至0.9%，2026财 年预计经济增幅为1.0%。 关于日本物价形势，央行认为，2026年上半年随着大米等食品价格回落，物价涨幅或回落至2%以下， 全年来看物价仍将呈缓慢上涨态势。央行继续将2025财年通胀预期维持在2.7%，同时将2026财年通胀 预期由1.8%上调至1.9%。 由于日本首相高市早苗为了赢得即将举行的众议院选举近日再次释放减税信号，导致日本债市汇市出现 剧烈震荡，日元急剧走软，长期利率大幅上扬。当天，市场高度关注日本央行行长植田和男在记者会上 的表态，日本央行是否被迫放缓货币政策正常化步 ...

Economic Data Summary - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP for Q3 was 4.4%, slightly above market expectations and the previous revision of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [1][6] - Consumer spending in the last quarter increased by 3.5% on an annualized basis, with service spending achieving the fastest growth in three years and goods spending also accelerating compared to the previous quarter [1][6] - The final value of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q3 was 2.9%, in line with expectations, indicating no significant increase in inflationary pressures [1][6] - Following a contraction of 0.6% in Q1, the real GDP rebounded strongly in Q2, growing by 3.8% [1][6] - The data for the first three quarters suggests an annualized growth rate of 2.5% for the U.S. economy through the first three quarters of 2025, driven by consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment, with a decline in imports contributing positively to GDP [1][6] Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations, while raising its medium- to long-term inflation forecasts, indicating a more optimistic assessment of price pressures [2][7] - The central bank kept its core CPI forecast for FY2025 unchanged at 2.7% but raised projections for the next two fiscal years, with the FY2026 core CPI forecast increased from 1.8% to 1.9% and FY2027 remaining at 2.0% [2][7] - The core-core CPI forecast, which better reflects underlying price trends, was also revised upward, with FY2025 forecast raised from 2.8% to 3.0%, FY2026 from 2.0% to 2.2%, and FY2027 from 2.0% to 2.1% [2][7] Gold Market - Gold prices surged significantly, reaching a historical high around 4960, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, ongoing trade tensions, and geopolitical risks that heightened safe-haven demand [3][8] - Expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year also provided support for gold prices [3][8] Australian Dollar Performance - The Australian dollar rose sharply, breaking the 0.6800 mark and reaching a 15-month high around 0.6850, bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar and strong economic data from Australia [4][9] - Increased expectations for interest rate hikes in Australia further supported the currency [4][9] USD/JPY Exchange Rate - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight gains, trading around 158.60, supported by ongoing political uncertainties in Japan and positive economic data from the U.S. [5][10] - A decrease in market risk aversion also contributed to the support for the exchange rate [5][10]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏强，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，美国 Q3 实际 | | | | | | | | | GDP 季环比终值小幅上修至 4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心 PCE 通胀保持在 2.9%;美 | | | | | | | | | 11 月 PCE 物价指数同比 2.8%，环比涨 0.2%，均符合预期,通胀预期稳定，消费支出稳 | | | | | | | | | | 健。国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降 | | | | | | | | 息还有一定的空间。库存方面，LME 库存增加 8850 吨至 168250 吨；Comex | | 库存增加 | | | | | | | 4031 吨至 507437 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 2408 吨至 143173 吨，BC 铜下降 75 吨至 | | | | 10685 | | ...

日本央行：将从可持续、稳定实现2%通胀目标的角度，适时实施货币政策。前景面临的风险包括贸易 政策对海外经济体的影响、国内企业工资和定价行为，以及金融和外汇市场的发展。日本金融体系总体 稳定。全球经济前景仍存在不确定性，例如贸易政策的影响，这可能导致供给端进口价格上涨。中长期 通胀预期很可能继续温和上升。产出缺口有望按趋势改善，并适度扩大。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏强，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，美国Q3实际GDP季环比终值 小幅上修至4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心PCE通胀保持在2.9%；美11月PCE物价指数同比2.8%，环比 涨0.2%，均符合预期，通胀预期稳定，消费支出稳健。国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降息还有一定的空间。库存方面，LME库存增加8850吨至168250 吨；Comex库存增加4031吨至507437吨；SHFE铜仓单下降2408吨至143173吨，BC铜下降75吨至10685 吨。此前提到，当前国内铜需求进入淡季，累库力度强于近两年，这加大了产业内的分歧，单从产业现 状和基本面来去看也存在调整的需求。但从贵金属板块表现来看，资金情绪依然高涨是较强的支撑因 素，对铜或有一定溢出效应。短期市场不确定性较高，春节前宜谨慎看待，但中期铜价上行趋势依然不 会改变，注重操作节奏。 镍&不锈钢： （朱希，从业资格号：F03109968； ...

【热门股表现】 *美国11月PCE通胀符合预期 *科技股普涨，中概股走强 *金银价格同步站上历史新高 在美国总统特朗普暂时撤回针对欧洲国家的关税威胁后，市场风险情绪明显修复。周四，美股三大股指 连续第二个交易日收高，投资者在地缘政治紧张缓和与美国经济数据稳健的双重支撑下重新回流股市。 截至周四收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨306.78点，涨幅0.63%，报49384.01点；标普500指数上涨37.73点， 涨幅0.55%，报6913.35点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨211.20点，涨幅0.91%，报23436.02点。 小盘股表现尤为活跃，罗素2000指数上涨0.76%，创收盘纪录新高，显示市场风险偏好有所回升。 大型科技股整体表现稳健。Meta大涨5.66%，特斯拉上涨4.15%，英伟达上涨0.83%，苹果上涨0.28%， 微软上涨1.58%，谷歌上涨0.66%，亚马逊上涨1.31%。甲骨文上涨2.47%，奈飞下跌2.13%，博通下跌 1.01%。半导体板块延续反弹势头，美光科技上涨2.18%，英特尔上涨0.13%，AMD上涨1.57%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨1.58%。热门中概股多数收涨，阿里巴巴上涨5.05 ...

Market Overview - The market sentiment improved significantly after President Trump temporarily withdrew tariff threats against European countries, leading to a rebound in U.S. stock indices [2][4] - As of Thursday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 306.78 points (0.63%) to 49,384.01, the S&P 500 increased by 37.73 points (0.55%) to 6,913.35, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 211.20 points (0.91%) to 23,436.02 [2] Sector Performance - Small-cap stocks showed particularly strong performance, with the Russell 2000 index rising by 0.76% to a record closing high, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite [3] - Major tech stocks performed robustly, with Meta up 5.66%, Tesla up 4.15%, and Nvidia up 0.83%. Other notable movements included Apple up 0.28%, Microsoft up 1.58%, and Amazon up 1.31% [3] - The semiconductor sector continued its rebound, with Micron Technology up 2.18% and AMD up 1.57% [3] Earnings Reports - Intel's stock plummeted over 12% in after-hours trading following its earnings report, which indicated a first-quarter revenue forecast of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion, below market expectations [3] - Despite the weak guidance, Intel's fourth-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of $13.67 billion and earnings per share of $0.15, both surpassing market forecasts [3] Economic Data - U.S. macroeconomic data remained robust, with the November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.8% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [6] - The third-quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 4.4%, marking the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2023 [7] - Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 200,000, which was below expectations, indicating stability in the job market [7] Commodity Market - The commodity market showed mixed results, with international oil prices declining; Brent crude fell by $1.18 to $64.06, and WTI crude dropped by $1.26 to $59.36 [8] - Precious metals continued to perform strongly, with spot gold rising by $2.22 to a historical high of $4,939.41 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures also reaching a new high [8]