Group 1 - The core market sentiment is positive, with rising stock prices, increasing gold prices, and profitable cryptocurrency investments [1][3] - Foreign central banks are shifting their reserves, now holding more gold than US Treasury bonds for the first time in 30 years, indicating a loss of trust in US government debt [3][5] - The current situation mirrors the late 1960s when central banks began to doubt the reliability of the US dollar, leading to a shift towards gold [3][5] Group 2 - There is a growing concern about the "hidden devaluation" of the dollar, where its purchasing power is diminishing despite stable exchange rates against other currencies [5][10] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are seen as a double-edged sword, historically leading to stock market gains but raising questions about long-term economic stability [8][10] - The current market dynamics are characterized by a focus on liquidity rather than fundamentals, with investors ignoring corporate earnings and fiscal realities [12][15] Group 3 - The rise in gold and cryptocurrency investments reflects a broader fear of inflation and distrust in monetary policy, similar to trends observed in the 1970s [12][14] - The real estate market is facing challenges due to a disparity in mortgage rates, which could hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy [17] - The overall market environment resembles a festive atmosphere, but the sustainability of this situation depends on the stability of long-term bond yields [19]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the weak labor market is the primary concern, and lowering rates will help the struggling workforce [1] - Despite slowing job growth, inflation remains high, and tariffs are impacting prices, indicating that the Fed is more worried about employment than inflation risks [1] Group 2 - Stephen Milan, a newly appointed Fed governor, cast the only dissenting vote, arguing for a 50 basis point cut instead [3] - Concerns about the Trump administration's tariff policies potentially driving inflation higher have led the Fed to maintain higher rates earlier this year [3] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a median forecast of a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts for the remaining two policy meetings of the year, with only one cut expected in 2026 [3] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the rate cut aligns with market expectations, but the outlook for further cuts remains uncertain due to potential inflation increases [5] - Liu Gang, Chief Analyst at CICC, stated that while the rate cut slightly supports employment risks, inflation is likely to rise in the coming months [5] Group 4 - Following the Fed's announcement, the U.S. stock market closed mixed, with analysts suggesting that the market's reaction was muted due to prior significant gains [7]

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 and released policymakers' quarterly forecast of economic conditions that shows the potential outlook for further rate cuts, as well as inflation and the labor market. The 25-basis-point cut lowered the benchmark federal funds rate to a new range of 4% to 4.25%, after rates were held steady at the first five meetings of this year amid economic uncertainty regarding the labor market and inflation amid tariff shifts and immigration ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points is seen as a response to the struggling U.S. economy, characterized by a weak job market, high debt, and persistent inflation [1][3] - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is highlighted by the dissenting vote from new board member Stephen Milan, reflecting differing opinions on the appropriate monetary policy [3][5] - President Trump's desire for a more aggressive rate cut of 50 basis points indicates his frustration with the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and his attempts to influence its decisions [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's forecast suggests a GDP growth rate of only 1.6% by 2025, indicating a prolonged low-growth recovery period for the U.S. economy [7] - The challenges ahead involve not only managing short-term economic fluctuations but also necessitating structural adjustments within the economy [7] - The recent interest rate cut is viewed as both a hopeful beginning and a source of potential concerns, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to economic recovery [5][7]

Group 1 - The CEO of RH, Gary Friedman, expressed a bleak outlook for the furniture industry, citing the impact of tariffs and the potential for new furniture-specific tariffs [2][3] - In the second fiscal quarter, RH reported revenue growth of 8.4% to $899.2 million and adjusted earnings per share of $2.93, up 73.4%, but both figures fell short of expectations [4] - The housing market has been described as the worst in 50 years, affecting demand for furniture and contributing to the challenges faced by RH [4][5] Group 2 - Due to tariffs, RH has postponed its new brand extension to Spring 2026 and delayed the release of its fall collection source book by eight weeks [5] - The company has lowered its operating margin outlook for the year due to tariff impacts and startup costs related to its European expansion, which may be a strategic move to mitigate tariff exposure [5] - A new investigation into the furniture industry by the Trump Administration could lead to additional tariffs, which the CEO warned could result in significant inflation and potential bankruptcies within the industry [6][7]

The US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut yesterday and signaled two further reductions before the end of the year. It comes amid concerns surrounding the weakness of the US labor market and was characterized by chair Jerome Powell in his post decision press conference as risk management. The committee voted 11 to1 who's the one 11 to1 to lower rates by 25 basis points with less descent than expected.Yeah, Waller and Bowman were in line with what the Fed chair voted. The Tru ...

美议员：关税引发的通胀正在"吞噬美国人的薪水" 中新网9月18日电 综合美媒报道，美国消费者越来越感受到特朗普政府关税的影响，美国国会预算办公 室主任日前表示，这些关税正在推动通货膨胀。 据报道，美国国会预算办公室主任菲利普·斯瓦格尔表示，关税已经推高通货膨胀，超出该机构最初的 预期。他强调，到目前为止，这些关税对通货膨胀的影响"不仅仅是一点点，而是足以在数据上显示出 来"。 斯瓦格尔还表示，高于预期的通货膨胀令人惊讶，因为有迹象表明，自2025年1月份以来，美国经济已 经显著放缓。 此外，美国《华盛顿邮报》日前报道称，特朗普政府的关税政策不仅伤害了美国国内的民众，也伤害了 生活在国外的美国人。 据《华盛顿邮报》解释，受特朗普政府的关税政策影响，生活在国外的美国人向国内邮寄东西的成本增 加，也导致外国放慢甚至完全停止向美国发货，因为他们不确定如何计算成本。 华盛顿州民主党众议员普拉米拉・贾亚帕尔补充道："从学习用品到汽油再到食品杂货，特朗普正在让 你的生活成本变得越来越高。"这位众议员表示："贫困人群和工薪阶层正在为特朗普鲁莽的(关税)政策 付出代价。" 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points reflects growing concerns about slowing labor markets, despite persistent inflation pressures [2][5][6]. Rate Cuts and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates four times since 2024, with the latest adjustment bringing the federal funds target range to 4.00%–4.25% [2][3]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest level since late 2021, indicating a slowdown in job creation [5]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk-management cut," highlighting simultaneous cooling in both labor supply and demand [6]. Fed's Projections and Policy Outlook - The updated "dot plot" projections show a divided outlook among policymakers, with ten officials expecting two more rate cuts this year and nine anticipating only one [8]. - The Fed's longer-run neutral rate median remains at 3%, with some policymakers advocating for an even lower rate, reflecting uncertainty about the necessary policy tightening to manage inflation without hindering growth [9]. Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 260 points (0.6%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced slight declines [12]. - Rate-sensitive sectors, including blue-chip companies like Walmart and JPMorgan, saw gains, while high-flying tech stocks faced profit-taking [13]. Political Context - The rate cut decision occurred amid political pressure, with President Trump advocating for more aggressive rate cuts to support housing and manage government debt [11].

美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活动增长放 缓，就业增长放缓，通胀率有所上升。鉴于风险平衡变化，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25 个基点。 声明说，在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间时，公开市场委员会将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化 的经济前景及风险平衡。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后举行的新闻发布会上说，本次会议的注意力全部集中在就业市场上，"现在没 有无风险的途径"。一些人现在"很难找到工作"，降低利率将有利于帮助陷入困境的劳动力市场。 新华社纽约9月17日电 综述｜美联储年内首次降息 通胀就业难平衡 新华社记者徐静 美国联邦储备委员会17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 参加此次货币政策会议的美联储官员对2025年美国实际国内生产总值增长率的中位数预测值为1.6%， 对失业率的中位数预测值为4.5%，对通胀率的中位数预测值为3%。 美联储宣布降息后，美国股市当天收盘涨跌不一，美元指数大跌后反弹，金价震荡下跌。 富国银行投资 ...

（原标题：美联储：降息25个基点！年内或再降50个基点！） 当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点。 投票反对这一行动的是斯蒂芬·米兰 （Stephen I. Miran），他倾向于在本次会议上将联邦基金利率的目 标区间下调 50个基点。 美联储预测中值则显示2025年将再降息50个基点。 美联储宣布降息后，现货黄金拉升，再次升破3700美元/盎司。 美联储在发布的声明中表示，最近的指标表明，今年上半年经济活动增长放缓。就业增长放缓，失业率 略有上升，但仍处于低位。 美联储表示，力求在长期内以2%的通胀速度实现最大的就业，经济前景的不确定性仍然很高。 为了支持其目标并鉴于风险平衡的转变，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标范围降低25个基点至4%— 4.25%。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行调整时，美联储将仔细评估即将发布的经济数据、不断变 化的前景和经济增长风险。美联储坚定地致力于支持最大就业并将通货膨胀率恢复到2%的目标。 在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续监测传入的信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能妨碍实 现目标的风险，委员会将准备酌情调整货币政策立场。委员会的评估将考虑广泛的信息，包括 ...