Core Insights - China's air conditioning industry is accelerating the adoption of aluminum instead of copper due to rising copper prices, with a focus on establishing relevant standards to ensure the safety of this billion-dollar industry [2][3] Group 1: Industry Developments - The China Refrigeration Society has released a group standard for the construction of aluminum tube fin heat exchanger production lines for room air conditioners, with additional standards for aluminum heat exchanger raw material requirements and production line construction currently being developed [2] - A national standard related to "aluminum instead of copper" for room air conditioners is under revision, with major companies like Gree, Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi participating in the discussions [2][3] - The China Household Electrical Appliances Research Institute has expanded its research group on aluminum applications in air conditioning to 19 members, including leading air conditioning manufacturers and related material companies [2] Group 2: Technical Challenges and Proposals - The demand for copper in household air conditioning is significant, with 10.7% of China's copper consumption in 2023 attributed to this sector, amounting to approximately 1.723 million tons, with 80% of this copper being imported [3] - There are three main challenges in adopting aluminum heat exchangers: high corrosion resistance technology issues, lack of standardized testing methods, and consumer biases against aluminum [3][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined a plan to support the development of aluminum applications in air conditioning and refrigeration, emphasizing the need for high corrosion resistance technology [4] Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Standards - Major air conditioning companies have signed a self-regulation agreement to promote aluminum heat exchangers, ensuring scientific communication about their benefits and preventing misleading claims [4] - The establishment of a standard system for aluminum heat exchangers is a priority, with a focus on addressing corrosion resistance and manufacturing capabilities [4]

该行测算2025Q4至2026Q4潜在新增有效产能约为246.1万吨，在扣除因电力合同困境或电气设备故障预 计减产20-70万吨后，全球2026年实际贡献新增产量仅86-125万吨，较经该行预测的2025年全球产量增 长仅1.2%至1.7%;在逆全球化背景下，该行认为区域性的供需错配将进一步加快全球铝产业链重塑，海 外铝锭库存或在近几年或稳步走高，这将成为"新的需求"，而当下(2025.11)的铜铝比价(3.8)意味着铝价 更多受到铜价上涨的牵引，铝行业有望享受"铝代铜"带来的需求增量，以及自身电力成本刚性所形成的 利润壁垒这双重红利。 观点四：我国电解铝企业正在经历从周期股向红利资产转变的关键节点 电解铝板块自2021年以来进入去杠杆周期，行业从"增量竞争"转向"存量优化"。企业无法再通过扩张规 模来竞争，资本开支逐年回落。供需格局在产能受限和需求(如新能源汽车、光伏)支撑下趋于紧平衡， 行业利润维持在较高水平，为企业改善资产负债表提供了充足的现金流，随着企业资本开支率 (CAPEX/EBITA)的下行，财务结构更为健康，持续分红具备了有利条件，整体电解铝行业股息率有望 进一步提升。 观点二：我国电解铝供给 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - December production data shows that the export decline for air conditioners has narrowed, with total production for air conditioning, refrigeration, and washing machines at 30.18 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1% [13] - Domestic sales for air conditioners decreased by 29.9% year-on-year, while exports fell by 11.4% [13] - Refrigerator domestic sales decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, but exports increased by 0.7% due to improved conditions following new US-China tariff negotiations [14] - Washing machine domestic sales decreased by 2% year-on-year, with exports down by 0.9% [14] - Rising copper prices may have limited short-term impacts, but could accelerate industry reshuffling and push for higher product value [15][17] Summary by Sections Production Data - Air Conditioners: Domestic sales down 29.9%, exports down 11.4% [13] - Refrigerators: Domestic sales down 6.2%, exports up 0.7% [14] - Washing Machines: Domestic sales down 2%, exports down 0.9% [14] Copper Price Impact - Copper prices have risen, with LME three-month copper at $9,920 per ton as of November 17, 2025 [15] - Copper costs account for approximately 22-25% of air conditioning production [15] - The increase in copper prices may lead to industry consolidation and a shift towards aluminum alternatives [17] Company Announcements - Kangping Technology announced a share transfer involving a 51% stake in Lingchen Collection, with an assessed value of 530 million yuan [18]

Core Viewpoint - Copper is experiencing unprecedented demand and price increases, driven by its essential role in the transition to clean energy and AI infrastructure, leading to a global "copper rush" [1][4][10]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The A-share copper sector has risen over 73% this year, with LME copper prices reaching a record high of $11,210 per ton [1]. - Domestic copper futures have surpassed 87,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong market sentiment and price resilience [1]. - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to rise due to fundamental support and market dynamics [1][9]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - Over 65% of global copper is used in electrical applications, making it irreplaceable in various sectors, particularly in the electrical industry [1]. - The shift towards clean energy and AI is creating a "demand triangle" focused on AI infrastructure, green energy transition, and grid upgrades, significantly increasing copper consumption [4][6]. - IEA forecasts that copper usage in data centers could reach between 250,000 to 550,000 tons by 2030, representing 1%-2% of global copper demand [4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - IEA warns of a potential global copper supply gap exceeding 30% by 2035, with current mining reserves only sufficient for 40 more years [6]. - The discovery rate of new copper resources has sharply declined, with only 14 new deposits found in the last decade [7]. - Major copper mines are facing production cuts due to various disruptions, leading to a projected supply shortfall of 150,000 tons by 2025 [7][8]. Group 4: Global Competition and Strategic Moves - Countries are implementing strategies to secure copper resources, with the US including copper in its critical minerals list for the first time [10]. - Japan is preparing to invest in copper mining projects in Pakistan due to concerns over supply shortages [10]. - Indian government aims to increase copper demand fivefold by 2047, indicating a long-term strategic focus on self-sufficiency [10]. Group 5: Corporate Strategies - Major mining companies like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale are expanding their copper operations to capitalize on the growing demand [12][15]. - Zijin Mining has become the fourth-largest copper producer globally, with plans to increase production significantly by 2028 [16][17]. - China Molybdenum is also focusing on copper production in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with ambitious growth targets [17]. Group 6: Industry Challenges - China's copper industry faces high import dependence, with over 80% of copper ore sourced from abroad [18]. - The rising copper prices are squeezing profit margins for downstream copper processing companies, leading to operational challenges [20]. - Companies are exploring financial instruments and alternative materials, such as aluminum, to mitigate the impact of rising copper prices [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume and its main contract price reached the 87,500 yuan mark, while LME copper hit the $11,000 mark. Despite the stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, non - ferrous metals strengthened collectively, with a strong bullish sentiment in the market. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic copper has been decreasing this week, and the spot premium has strengthened, supporting the copper price. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $11,000 mark of LME copper [5]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum oscillated upwards today, with a slight increase in open interest, and its main contract price reached the 21,600 yuan mark. The US dollar index oscillated and stabilized, while non - ferrous metals rose across the board, creating a good bullish atmosphere. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has been decreasing since this week, supporting the aluminum price. In the short term, the aluminum price rebounded with the non - ferrous metal sector, but the change in open interest was small, indicating low capital attention [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the nickel price soared in the morning and then declined, oscillating narrowly above 117,000 yuan during the day. Although non - ferrous metals rose across the board, the nickel price performed relatively weakly. The spot premium of nickel decreased slightly. Against the backdrop of the strong performance of the non - ferrous metal sector, the liquidation of previous short positions may keep the nickel price in a relatively strong oscillation [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Using aluminum instead of copper in air - conditioning products can significantly reduce manufacturing costs, especially for the price - sensitive mid - and low - end markets. Major air - conditioning brands have jointly issued an industry standard for aluminum substitution of copper. Rising copper prices may further promote the implementation of this substitution in the domestic air - conditioning industry [9]. - **Aluminum**: JPMorgan Chase expects that due to the attractiveness of rising copper prices, combined with the overall market balance and the short - term risk of supply decline, the aluminum price is expected to approach $3,000 per ton in Q1 2026. However, Indonesia has a vast aluminum supply channel, and its production capacity growth is about to reach a critical point in 2026. This emerging supply growth trend may eventually offset the rise in aluminum prices, but this impact will not be apparent until 2026 and the following years. On November 27, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from Monday [10][11]. - **Nickel**: On November 28, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 117,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 119,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, aluminum bar inventory, etc [24][26][31]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - Copper prices are currently at historical highs, with LME futures reaching $10,800 per ton on November 24, and peaking at $11,200 per ton at the end of October, marking the highest level since May 2024. Goldman Sachs forecasts copper prices to range between $10,000 and $11,000 in the next two years due to supply constraints and increased demand from AI applications [1][2] - The closure of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine due to landslides has contributed to a year-on-year increase of 3.94% in LME copper prices in September, while domestic copper prices in China have also reached annual highs [1] Group 2: Impact on Air Conditioning Industry - Rising copper prices have significantly increased production costs for air conditioning manufacturers, with costs expected to rise by approximately 8% since April. However, due to intense market competition, air conditioning prices have not been able to increase correspondingly, which may impact industry profits [2][3] - The air conditioning industry is facing a new round of market reshuffling, with larger companies benefiting more from national subsidy policies, while smaller firms are under increased pressure and shifting towards exports. The rising costs may accelerate this reshuffling process [3] Group 3: Material Substitution Trends - The high copper prices are prompting discussions about substituting aluminum for copper in air conditioning components. The technology for using aluminum and steel in various parts has been maturing for about a decade, and the industry is expected to continue developing standards for the reliability and corrosion resistance of aluminum components [3]

Group 1 - Copper prices are currently at historical highs, with LME copper futures reaching $10,800 per ton on November 24, and a peak of $11,200 per ton at the end of October, marking the highest level since May 2024 [2] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to supply constraints and increased demand from sectors like AI, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices will range between $10,000 and $11,000 in the coming years [2] - The closure of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine due to landslides has contributed to a year-on-year increase of 3.94% in LME copper prices in September, impacting the production expectations of air conditioning manufacturers [4] Group 2 - The increase in copper prices has led to a significant rise in production costs for air conditioning companies, which typically see copper accounting for 22%-25% of their costs [4] - Despite rising costs, air conditioning prices may not increase immediately due to competitive market conditions, with potential price adjustments possibly not reflecting until 2026 [4] - The air conditioning industry is undergoing a new round of restructuring, with larger companies benefiting from national subsidies while smaller firms face increased pressure, potentially accelerating market consolidation [5] Group 3 - The high copper prices are expected to exert upward pressure on air conditioning prices next year, prompting discussions about substituting aluminum for copper in components [5] - The use of alternative metals like aluminum and steel in refrigeration components has been developing for about a decade, with technology becoming increasingly mature [5] - China, as the largest air conditioning manufacturer globally, is actively following advancements in aluminum substitution technology, with plans to establish product standards based on reliability and corrosion resistance [5]

Core Insights - The aluminum market is undergoing a fundamental restructuring due to the acceleration of global energy transition, with aluminum becoming a strategic resource, leading to a new price paradigm characterized by high prices and limited supply [1][2][3] Global Aluminum Supply Chain Restructuring - Resource nationalism and capacity transfer are reshaping the global aluminum supply chain, with Guinea holding 26% of global bauxite reserves and Australia 12%, while China only holds 2% [1][2] - The concentration of bauxite resources leads to a significant disparity in production, with Guinea accounting for 29% of global output [2] - By 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its ceiling at 4,445 million tons, while overseas projects are expected to add over 1 million tons of capacity from 2026 to 2028 [3][4] Global Aluminum Consumption Structure Analysis - Traditional sectors like construction are declining, while new sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs) and photovoltaics are experiencing explosive growth, with EV aluminum consumption increasing by 30% [5][6] - The average aluminum usage in pure electric vehicles is 283 kg per vehicle, significantly higher than traditional vehicles [6] - By 2040, global aluminum demand is projected to reach 163.7 million tons, a 67.3% increase from 2018 levels [7] Trade Policies and Market Dynamics - The U.S. has significantly increased aluminum import tariffs to 50%, leading to a sharp decline in imports, particularly from Canada, which previously supplied 58% of U.S. aluminum [8][9] - China is adapting by increasing exports through third countries to circumvent tariffs, with exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products rising by 19.7% year-on-year [10] Price Trends and Future Predictions - Aluminum prices have shown a strong upward trend, with LME prices reaching $2,880 per ton, driven by tight supply and robust demand from sectors like EVs and solar energy [11][12] - Various institutions predict continued price increases, with estimates for 2025 ranging from $2,850 to $3,500 per ton, reflecting a tightening market [12][13] Future Trends and Strategic Recommendations - The aluminum industry is shifting towards a green transition, with a focus on recycled aluminum, which has a recovery rate of over 95% and significantly lower production emissions [14][15] - Companies are encouraged to invest in green technologies and diversify markets to mitigate risks associated with trade barriers and supply chain vulnerabilities [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the aluminum industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a tight supply-demand balance in the global electrolytic aluminum market, with domestic supply constraints leading to potential price increases in 2025 and 2026 [3][25]. - The domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to show resilience, driven by the recovery in the real estate sector and strong growth in the new energy vehicle market [2][3]. - The report anticipates a continued expansion of profit margins in the electrolytic aluminum industry due to declining raw material costs and rising aluminum prices [3][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Side: Capacity Ceiling and Low-Carbon Policies - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry is undergoing a supply-side reform that locks in a total capacity ceiling, shifting the focus from quantity to sustainable quality development [14][15]. - The emphasis on energy conservation and carbon reduction is becoming the main theme, with policies aimed at optimizing capacity layout and energy structure [19][20]. 2. Supply Side: Domestic Capacity Nearing Ceiling, Limited Overseas Increment - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained by a capacity ceiling, with net new capacity expected to be only 20,000 tons in 2025 and 56,000 tons in 2026 [28][29]. - The report notes that overseas production increases, particularly from Southeast Asia, will have limited impact on the domestic market due to the "strong external, weak internal" price dynamic [25][26]. 3. Demand Side: Strong Domestic Demand and Export Advantages - Domestic consumption of electrolytic aluminum is projected to grow at rates of 2.7% and 2.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, supported by a recovering real estate market and robust demand from the new energy vehicle sector [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that China's aluminum processing capacity remains significantly advantageous in the global market, reinforcing demand stability [2][3]. 4. Cost: Downward Pressure on Costs, High Profit Era Expected to Continue - The average complete cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to range between 16,000 and 16,400 RMB per ton, with aluminum prices projected to rise to approximately 20,600 RMB per ton in 2025 and 21,500 RMB per ton in 2026 [3][21]. - The combination of declining costs and rising prices is expected to expand profit margins, establishing a high-profit environment as a norm [3][21]. 5. Supply-Demand Balance: Continued Tight Balance, Price Expectations to Rise - The report indicates that the tight balance in supply and demand will persist, with expectations of rising aluminum prices due to domestic supply rigidity [3][25]. - The anticipated implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in January 2026 is expected to further influence pricing dynamics in the industry [3][21]. 6. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cost control capabilities and stable dividend returns, particularly those leading in low-carbon transitions, such as China Hongqiao, China Aluminum, and Nanshan Aluminum [3][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.85 CNY based on a 2026 PE valuation of 11 times [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw material costs, particularly in aluminum ore, leading to improved profitability in the coming years [2][8]. - The company is actively progressing on key projects aimed at enhancing its integrated aluminum industry layout, which is anticipated to support future growth [8]. - The report forecasts significant growth in earnings per share (EPS) from 1.05 CNY in 2025 to 1.51 CNY in 2027, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 28,975 million CNY in 2023 to 28,089 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 35,253 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth of 25.5% [4][10]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 2,642 million CNY in 2023 to 5,506 million CNY in 2025, with a notable growth rate of 97.6% in 2024 [4][10]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 2,205 million CNY in 2023 to 4,901 million CNY in 2025, with a growth of 102.0% in 2024 [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 70.32% increase over the past 12 months [6]. - The stock price as of October 29, 2025, was 13.8 CNY, with a 52-week high of 13.9 CNY and a low of 6.48 CNY [5].