Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risks surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have overshadowed peace expectations, leading to a rebound in international oil prices after two weeks of decline [1][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - President Trump's stance on the Russia-Ukraine situation shifted dramatically from promoting peace to advocating for military action within just four days [1][7]. - Initial optimism in the market was fueled by Trump's meetings with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders, where he expressed intentions to arrange talks between Russian and Ukrainian leaders [6][7]. - The peace process has faced significant obstacles, with external interventions complicating negotiations, and proposed peacekeeping forces being rejected by the Kremlin [6][7]. Group 2: Military Support and Strategy - The U.S. appears to be adjusting its strategy towards Ukraine, potentially using military pressure as leverage in negotiations [7]. - Trump's recent comments suggest a shift from providing military aid as a gift to selling weapons to Ukraine, indicating a change in U.S. support policy [7]. - Vice President Pence emphasized that European nations should bear the primary responsibility for Ukraine's security, indicating a desire to transfer costs to allies [7]. Group 3: Oil Market Reactions - The dimming prospects for peace have led to a resurgence of geopolitical risk, which typically drives up oil prices due to increased market uncertainty [8][9]. - Brent crude oil futures rose by 2.7% during the week, signaling a potential end to the previous downward trend in oil prices [1][8]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a significant decrease in crude oil inventories, which further supported oil prices amid rising demand concerns [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil stabilized, oscillated, and rebounded. The US imposed sanctions on a batch of Iranian - related enterprises, increasing geopolitical concerns. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation still takes time, and the uncertainties during this period drive up oil prices. - Some Fed governors' speeches reduce the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The market continues to focus on Powell's speech. Goldman Sachs believes Powell's speech on Friday won't clearly indicate a September rate cut but may convey support for it. - After technical repair, oil prices still face significant fluctuations. Short - term, it is expected to run with high - volatility oscillations, operating in the range of 488 - 498. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Some Fed presidents are lukewarm about the possibility of a rate cut next month. The US may double tariffs on India. Angola's July oil production fell below 1 million barrels per day for the first time in two and a half years [3]. - **Basis**: On August 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.78 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.38 per barrel. The basis was 33.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels. Cushing's inventory increased by 419,000 barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.767 million barrels as of August 21 [3]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of August 12, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the long positions decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term, it will operate in the 488 - 498 range. Long - term, hold long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Three Fed officials cooled the expectation of a rate cut next month. The market is waiting for Powell's speech. Currently, the interest - rate futures price implies a 70.4% probability of a September rate cut and about a 47 - basis - point rate cut for the year [5]. - Putin requires Ukraine to abandon the entire Donbass region, give up the ambition to join NATO, remain neutral, and ban Western troops from entering the country. The Russia - US summit mainly discussed the compromise plan for the Ukraine issue [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US imposed secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period was extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is a possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts decrease, and trade tariff risks increase. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased by 0.83, 0.81, 4.70, and 0.98 respectively, with increases of 1.24%, 1.29%, 0.98%, and 1.43% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil increased by 0.65, 0.81, 0.96, 0.88, and 1.05 respectively, with increases of 0.96%, 1.29%, 1.39%, 1.37%, and 1.52% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased by 25,087 [3][15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased [3][17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in international gold prices is viewed as a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental reversal of the long-term bullish trend in gold [2][3] Group 1: Factors Contributing to Short-term Pressure on Gold Prices - The postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to a stronger US dollar and direct pressure on gold prices [2] - Technical profit-taking has occurred due to the previous rapid increase in gold prices, resulting in increased volatility and price corrections as speculative long positions are liquidated [2] Group 2: Long-term Support for Gold Prices - Central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, driven by geopolitical risks and the diversification of foreign exchange reserves, providing strong structural buying support for the market [2] - Geopolitical risks remain high, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [2] - The rapid expansion of global debt and potential financial crisis risks undermine the credibility of fiat currencies, enhancing the monetary value of gold [2] Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The current decline is seen as a healthy "mid-game break" that allows for the digestion of crowded long trades, potentially setting the stage for the next upward movement [3] - Investors should focus on the strategic value of gold as a hedge against uncertainty rather than a tool for short-term profit [3] - Future gold price movements will depend on the timing of the Federal Reserve's policy shift and the evolution of global macro risks, with volatility expected to be a constant [3]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's policy shows increasing division among officials, with some advocating for only one rate cut this year while others see no urgent need for cuts due to inflation concerns [2][3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut have decreased from 92% to 74%, with the anticipated total rate cut by year-end reduced from 54 basis points to 49 basis points, primarily due to recent inflation data and cautious statements from officials [3] - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with rising unemployment claims and weak manufacturing activity suggesting labor market risks, which may boost gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support gold prices, as there are no signs of a quick resolution [7] - The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iran, affecting multiple entities and vessels, which adds to the geopolitical uncertainty [8] - The limited scope of tariff reductions in the U.S.-EU trade agreement may drive more funds into gold due to global uncertainties [9] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase following a peak of 3500 in April, with a clear triangular convergence pattern forming, indicating potential volatility ahead [11] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified, with support at approximately 3315 and resistance at around 3384 [11] - In the four-hour timeframe, the market remains in a downward trend until the previous high of 3409 is breached, with critical levels to watch being 3311 for support and 3352 for resistance [13]

根据PrimeMarketTerminal数据,交易员认为9月降息25个基点的概率高达85%。然而,美元指数小幅反弹至 98.27,美国10年期国债收益率回落至4.30%,显示投资者在降息预期与经济不确定性之间摇摆,美元的阶段 性走强,成为压制金价上行的重要因素。 关税摩擦叠加通胀隐忧 临时停火难掩深层矛盾 在国际调解推动下,哈马斯近日宣布接受一项为期60天的临时停火协议,以释放10名人质换取以色列有限 让步,该协议被视为美国特使威特科夫方案的修改版,旨在短期内缓解加沙的人道主义压力。尽管市场因 此情绪稍有缓和,金价短线出现回调,但分析人士普遍认为,这更像是"喘息"而非"和解",以色列方面依旧坚 持"一揽子解决方案",即归还全部人质、哈马斯解除武装并放弃对加沙的控制权,否则战事难以结束,随着 以色列推进接管加沙城的计划,冲突随时可能再度升级,长期风险依然高企。 国内压力与国际博弈交织 据民调显示,约八成以色列民众支持以换取人质释放为条件结束战争,大规模示威活动呼吁政府尽快停战, 使内塔尼亚胡在强硬与妥协之间左右为难,同时,美国总统特朗普在Truth Social发文强调"必须彻底击溃哈 马斯",进一步加大以色 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks start, the risk - aversion demand declines, the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rebounds. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, highly volatile in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1] - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of funds, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were weakly volatile. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.30%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.63% [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements, Russia - Ukraine talks, and reduced risk - aversion demand; increased stagflation risk in the US economy, weakening employment, moderate inflation, and a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [1] - **Attribute Analysis** - **Risk - aversion**: The meeting between US and Russian leaders was considered "productive", and the US - China tariff truce was extended by 90 days [1] - **Monetary**: Only two Fed policymakers supported an interest - rate cut in July. US retail sales and wholesale prices in July increased strongly. The market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in September has soared from about 40% to over 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year has risen from 1 to 2 - 3 times [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index's rebound was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2] 2. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price [5] - **Fund and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets are 66946.22 billion US dollars, with a slight increase [8] - **Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and other indicators have changed to varying degrees. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 1.15% compared with the previous day [8] - **US Economic Data**: In terms of inflation, employment, consumption, and other aspects, there are different degrees of changes. For example, the CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, and the unemployment rate is 4.20% [8][9] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2300.41 tons, with a slight increase; the US is 8133.46 tons, unchanged [9] - **Other Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, etc. have also changed [9] 4. Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, the probability of an interest - rate range of 300 - 325 at the September 17, 2025 meeting is 81.2% [11]

Core Insights - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates an increase in U.S. oil product supply and a decrease in crude oil exports as of August 8. Brent, WTI, and ESPO crude oil spot prices have declined, while OPEC and domestic crude oil prices have risen in July [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - As of August 8, Brent crude futures settled at $66.59 per barrel, down 2.99% month-over-month, while WTI futures settled at $63.88 per barrel, down 4.04% [1] - ESPO crude spot price was $62.49 per barrel, reflecting a 4.23% decrease [1] - In July, OPEC crude spot price was $70.97 per barrel, up 1.78% month-over-month [1] - China's crude oil spot average price (Daqing) was $65.59 per barrel, down 0.80%, while prices for South China Sea and Shengli increased slightly [1] Group 2: U.S. Oil Supply Dynamics - U.S. refinery utilization rate increased to 96.4%, up 2.5 percentage points [2] - Weekly gasoline supply in the U.S. reached 9,000 thousand barrels per day, up 511 thousand barrels per day, a 6.02% increase [2] - Gasoline inventory decreased to 226,290 thousand barrels, down 6,577 thousand barrels, a 2.82% decline [2] - Total U.S. oil product supply was 21,356 thousand barrels per day, up 2,172 thousand barrels per day, an 11.32% increase [2] Group 3: Import and Export Trends - U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6,214.25 thousand barrels per day in July, up 98.75 thousand barrels per day, a 1.61% increase [3] - U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3,207.00 thousand barrels per day, down 9.80% month-over-month [3] - China's crude oil imports were 47.20 million tons, down 269.00 thousand tons, a 5.39% decrease [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - As of August 8, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices have decreased, while OPEC and domestic crude oil prices have increased in July [3][14]. - U.S. refinery utilization rates have risen, and the supply of finished gasoline and petroleum products has increased, while gasoline inventories have decreased month-over-month [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil imports have increased month-over-month, while exports have decreased; in contrast, China's crude oil imports have declined significantly, but exports have surged [2][44][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Crude Oil Prices - Brent crude futures settled at $66.59 per barrel, down 2.99% month-over-month; WTI crude futures settled at $63.88 per barrel, down 4.04% [8][9]. - OPEC crude prices increased to $70.97 per barrel in July, up 1.78% month-over-month [14]. 2. Supply and Demand - OPEC crude oil production increased to 27,543 thousand barrels per day in July, up 1.13% month-over-month [21]. - U.S. refinery crude oil production decreased slightly to 17.24 million barrels per day, down 0.06% month-over-month but up 1.71% year-over-year [24]. 3. Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories rose to 1,670,549 thousand barrels, up 0.72% month-over-month [32]. - U.S. gasoline inventories decreased to 226,290 thousand barrels, down 2.82% month-over-month [32]. 4. Imports and Exports - U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6,214.25 thousand barrels per day in July, up 1.61% month-over-month [44]. - China's crude oil imports fell to 4,720,000 tons, down 5.39% month-over-month, while exports increased significantly [44][48].

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestically, although the current economic growth shows a marginal slowdown, there's no need for excessive worry. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and if economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and policy signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.15 - 7.23 in the short - term, with the area below 7.20 likely to be the main operating range. The US dollar index may remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting further guidance from the Jackson Hole Meeting [4]. - For stock indices, short - term market sentiment is still fluctuating, and it is expected to hover near the pressure line for some time. It is advisable to hold positions and use options for hedging [7]. - For treasury bonds, the bond market is still moving in tandem with the stock market, and the trading sentiment is weak. Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can make small - scale purchases [8]. - For container shipping, the EC is likely to continue its oscillating trend, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [11]. Summary by Directory Macro - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals, and Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1793 on the previous trading day, up 27 basis points. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk [3]. Stock Indices - Yesterday, stock indices rose with reduced volume, and small and medium - cap stocks were relatively strong. Overnight, US stocks continued to fall, and the US dollar index declined. Foreign capital may continue to flow into A - shares, but risk appetite may decline [7]. Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher and then fluctuated, and weakened in the afternoon due to the stock market hitting a new high. The central bank announced an additional 100 billion yuan in re - loans for agriculture and small businesses [8]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European line) futures prices first oscillated slightly downward and then rebounded. Some new sailings of MSK had slightly higher spot cabin quotes [9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. Technically, the short - term sentiment has improved, and it is advisable to buy on dips [14]. - For copper, it may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to oscillate; for alumina, it may oscillate weakly; for cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to oscillate. The price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum can be considered for arbitrage [19]. - For zinc, it is mainly expected to oscillate in the short - term [22]. - For nickel and stainless steel, they declined due to the impact of the broader market. They are affected by macro factors and the fundamentals of the industry [23]. - For tin, it is mainly expected to oscillate [25]. - For lithium carbonate, the price may rebound temporarily and then enter a weakening channel. In the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month futures contracts on rallies [26]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly in the future [28]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to high overseas inventory [30]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - On Wednesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and rebounded. The CME "FedWatch" data showed the probabilities of Fed interest rate decisions in September, October, and December. It is advisable to buy on dips for gold and silver [12][13][14]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index declined slightly on Wednesday. First Quantum's Kansanshi copper mine expansion project is expected to significantly increase copper production [16]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The US expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 20300 - 20800. Alumina is in a state of oversupply, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support [18][19]. Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is advisable to consider an internal - external reverse arbitrage [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The main contracts of nickel and stainless steel declined. Spot prices and inventory data are provided, and the market is affected by the broader market and industry fundamentals [23]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index declined slightly on Wednesday. In July, China's refined tin imports increased and exports decreased. The delay in Myanmar's tin mine resumption has supported tin prices [24]. Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, the lithium carbonate futures main contract limit - downed. The lithium ore market sentiment slowed down, and the lithium salt market shipments increased. The price may rebound temporarily and then weaken [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The government held a photovoltaic industry symposium. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [27][28]. Lead - The previous trading day, lead prices were weak due to a significant increase in LME inventory. The supply and demand of lead are in a stalemate, and it is expected to oscillate [30]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For steel products, the short - term market has stopped falling and stabilized, but the fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [34]. - For iron ore, it is expected to oscillate with reduced volatility, and its price may be stronger than that of steel products in the short - term [37]. - For coking coal and coke, the market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and investors should pay attention to risk prevention [40]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply pressure is increasing, and there is a possibility of a shift from inventory reduction to inventory accumulation [42]. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, steel product prices stopped falling and rebounded. Coal mines are resuming production, and Tangshan's production restriction intensity has increased. The supply of steel products is increasing while the demand is decreasing [32][33]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market was generally weak, but rebounded in the afternoon. Steel production has been suppressed, and the iron ore price may oscillate [35][37]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal's static supply - demand is in a tight balance, and coke's supply has perturbation factors. The market may fluctuate with sentiment, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventories [38][40]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand has no obvious improvement. The market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [41]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the overnight market rose slightly, but it will continue to adjust weakly in the short - term. The medium - term risk of a downward break is increasing [44]. - For LPG, the fundamentals remain loose, and the market is affected by news. It is in a state of oscillation [46]. - For PX - PTA, it is advisable to buy on dips to expand the processing margin. In the medium - term, PTA's low processing margin will drive changes [48]. - For MEG, it is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and it is advisable to buy on dips near the cost. In the long - term, the performance of the polyester peak season needs to be observed [51]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near future, and future attention should be paid to demand and cost changes [53]. - For PE, the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [55]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene may oscillate in the short - term, and for styrene, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [56][58]. - For fuel oil, the short - term driving force of domestic FU is downward [60]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [61]. - For asphalt, the unilateral price is weakly retracting, and the peak season shows no excessive performance. Future attention should be paid to specific measures for the asphalt industry chain [62]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, RU2601 is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see for the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage and buy on dips to expand the price difference between light and dark rubber [67]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [69]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [70]. - For glass, the market is in a weak balance, and future attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [71]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, crude oil futures prices rose. The EIA report showed a significant decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory. Geopolitical factors are weakening the support for crude oil [43][44]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The domestic supply is loose, and the demand has slightly improved. The market is affected by news [45][46]. PX - PTA - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. PX supply may increase, and PTA's processing margin is at a low level. The downstream demand is expected to improve [47][48]. MEG - MEG prices rose. The supply - demand is in a fragile balance, and it is expected to remain strong in the short - term [49][51]. PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to oscillate [52][53]. PE - PE prices rose. The supply may decrease in September, and the demand is in the process of recovery from the off - season to the peak season [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's supply and demand are both increasing, and it may oscillate in the short - term. Styrene's supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand surplus is decreasing [56][58]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is weak. The export has eased, the feed demand is strengthening, and the power generation demand is weakening [60]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was low in July, and the demand was weak. The short - term cracking spread has stabilized, and it is advisable to wait and see [61]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are weakening. The supply is stable, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortage. The cost pressure is expected to ease [62]. Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - Rubber prices rebounded. The import is increasing steadily, and the inventory pressure is high. The demand is facing challenges, and the cost support is strong [64][67]. Urea - Urea prices rose. The export may boost the price, but the agricultural demand is weakening. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate [68][69]. Soda Ash - Soda ash prices fell. The supply remains high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a historical high. Attention should be paid to cost factors [70]. Glass - Glass prices fell. The supply is stable, the demand is in a weak balance, and the market sentiment is fluctuating. Attention should be paid to policy and sentiment changes [71].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, a strong US dollar, and easing geopolitical tensions, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by the upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September [3]. - Concerns arise from Powell possibly signaling a "neutral hawkish" stance, emphasizing inflation resilience and policy flexibility, which could dampen overly optimistic easing expectations [3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut path further exacerbate market uncertainty, impacting gold's attractiveness [3][4]. Group 2: Strength of the US Dollar - The US dollar index closed at 98.2, reflecting a strong dollar that inversely affects gold prices, as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for holders of other currencies [4]. - Positive economic indicators, such as a 0.5% month-on-month increase in US retail sales for July, contribute to the dollar's strength and subsequently suppress gold's rebound potential [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risk Easing - A recent summit between US and Russian leaders has alleviated some concerns regarding escalating geopolitical conflicts, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Decreased attention to Middle Eastern tensions and a decline in oil prices due to OPEC+ production expectations further diminish gold's appeal as a crisis hedge [5]. Group 4: Economic Data Contradictions - Mixed economic data, including a weak non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July and a core CPI rise of 3.1%, creates a divided market sentiment regarding Federal Reserve policy [6]. - The youth unemployment rate rising to 17.8% raises concerns about consumer demand, although inflation resilience partially offsets these worries [6]. Group 5: Long-term Structural Factors - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with UBS raising its 2026 gold price target to $3,600 due to ongoing macroeconomic risks and strong investment demand [7]. - The recent price drop is viewed as a result of short-term sentiment fluctuations, with market participants opting to take profits or hedge against potential downturns [7].