Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, a strong US dollar, and easing geopolitical tensions, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by the upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September [3]. - Concerns arise from Powell possibly signaling a "neutral hawkish" stance, emphasizing inflation resilience and policy flexibility, which could dampen overly optimistic easing expectations [3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut path further exacerbate market uncertainty, impacting gold's attractiveness [3][4]. Group 2: Strength of the US Dollar - The US dollar index closed at 98.2, reflecting a strong dollar that inversely affects gold prices, as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for holders of other currencies [4]. - Positive economic indicators, such as a 0.5% month-on-month increase in US retail sales for July, contribute to the dollar's strength and subsequently suppress gold's rebound potential [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risk Easing - A recent summit between US and Russian leaders has alleviated some concerns regarding escalating geopolitical conflicts, reducing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Decreased attention to Middle Eastern tensions and a decline in oil prices due to OPEC+ production expectations further diminish gold's appeal as a crisis hedge [5]. Group 4: Economic Data Contradictions - Mixed economic data, including a weak non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July and a core CPI rise of 3.1%, creates a divided market sentiment regarding Federal Reserve policy [6]. - The youth unemployment rate rising to 17.8% raises concerns about consumer demand, although inflation resilience partially offsets these worries [6]. Group 5: Long-term Structural Factors - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with UBS raising its 2026 gold price target to $3,600 due to ongoing macroeconomic risks and strong investment demand [7]. - The recent price drop is viewed as a result of short-term sentiment fluctuations, with market participants opting to take profits or hedge against potential downturns [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risk premium is weakening due to the expected "Putin-Zelensky meeting", and there are still strong differences in the market regarding the Fed's interest rate cut path. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will mainly fluctuate in the near future and wait for Powell's guidance at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. The oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 750 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8][9]. - The trading logic of silver prices is still synchronized with that of gold, mainly based on the Fed's interest rate cut path on the macro - level, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply - demand fundamentals of silver. With the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and differences in the Fed's interest rate cut path, the silver price is also expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 8900 yuan/kilogram and 9400 yuan/kilogram [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate, covering various products such as wind turbines and furniture [1]. - The White House is planning a possible meeting among the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest, and geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly [1]. - Fed's Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold a small amount of crypto - products, reflecting the US government's friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 19, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.98 yuan/gram, closed at 775.06 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 772.60 yuan/gram, down 0.32% from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 19, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9263.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9187.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.77% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 272,701 lots, and the open interest was 342,500 lots. The night - session closed at 9061 yuan/kilogram, down 1.37% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 19, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.31%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.56%, down 0.8 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract on August 19, 2025, the long - position and short - position changes were 0 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 163,718 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract on August 19, 2025, the long - position changed by 2 lots, and the short - position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 411,181 lots, down 10.67% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 962.21 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 3.15 tons, down 16.95 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On August 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 2.34 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 710.76 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.36, up 0.44% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.91, up 1.19% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On August 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 21,362 kilograms, down 3.88% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 333,308 kilograms, up 22.46% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 6506 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 10,140 kilograms [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the precious metals market is currently experiencing fluctuations due to various factors, including U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2][3][4] - Galaxy Futures indicates that the unexpected rise in U.S. PPI and resilient retail data have dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, leading to cautious trading sentiment [1] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the U.S. involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to increased expectations for a resolution, which has also pressured precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - National Investment Futures notes that the recent clarity in U.S. tariff policies and ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks have reduced market risk aversion, resulting in continued adjustments in precious metals [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies and tariffs is expected to have a lasting impact on inflation and global markets, with precious metals serving as a strategic asset to hedge against risks [2] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that gold is behaving more like a "luxury" rather than a commodity, driven by ownership changes rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, which supports the case for increased investment in gold [4] Group 3 - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank highlights that the market is awaiting the next catalyst, with recent U.S. economic data showing unexpected downward trends, which may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - The potential for geopolitical risks to rise could also trigger an increase in precious metals prices, as seen in past instances [3] - The strong demand for gold from ETFs and central banks is becoming a new pillar of support for gold prices, as noted by Goldman Sachs [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and Coil: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Palm Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The short-term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the ZZJ meeting fell short of expectations. The domestic supply policy expectations have been temporarily disproven, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market corrections. The fundamentals of various commodities show different characteristics, with some facing supply and demand imbalances, while others are affected by policy, market sentiment, and cost factors [2][4][6][8][10]. - The fiscal revenue has shown positive growth, and the central bank has increased support for disaster-stricken areas. The market sentiment for stock index futures is bullish, while the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: Global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly risen, but there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory under high port clearance. Terminal demand is weak, and steel mills have limited motivation to cut production actively. In late August, there are expectations of production cuts in northern regions, but the intensity is lower than expected. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to operate weakly [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The demand for real estate and infrastructure is weak, and coking coal is undergoing high-level adjustments. The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow, and the inventory of clean coal in coal mines last week reached the lowest level since March 2024. The downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain high operating rates, and some coal mines have saturated pre-sales orders. In the short term, coal prices are still supported. Overall, the long-term coking production restrictions in Hebei and Shandong have positive factors on the supply side, and the short-term adjustment range is limited. To break through the previous high, continuous reduction in supply is required [2]. - Rebar and Coil: The production restriction policy for Tangshan steel mills is clear, and the reduction is lower than expected. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, external demand exports have been overdrawn in advance, real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show counter-seasonal performance. With no increase in total demand throughout the year, a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The profits of the five major steel products are acceptable, production has increased slightly, apparent demand has declined, and steel mill inventories have accelerated to accumulate. The increase in social inventories has expanded. In mid-August, there are expectations of supply contraction due to military parade production restrictions, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market is not large. During the traditional peak season, the spot demand for rebar is still weak, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts. In the short term, rebar futures will undergo significant adjustments to find support [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the middle and lower reaches are in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with a significant weakening of restocking demand. The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly. There is no water release or ignition of glass production lines, the operating rate is basically stable, weekly production remains unchanged month-on-month, and manufacturer inventories continue to accumulate. During the military parade, it is unlikely for glass factories in Shahe to stop production. The market is subject to many sentiment disturbances, and there is room for restocking in the middle and lower reaches of the glass industry, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly. In the short term, the spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. - Soda Ash: The short-term spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures/Options: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.38%, the SSE 50 Index closed down 0.93%, the CSI 500 Index closed down 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 0.07%. Funds flowed into the soft drink and forestry sectors, while funds flowed out of the insurance and aerospace and defense sectors. In July, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with central and local revenues increasing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, the highest monthly growth rate this year. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and the growth rate turned positive. Since April, national tax revenues have shown a year-on-year growth trend, driving the continuous recovery of fiscal revenues. In July, tax revenues increased by 5%, reaching a new high this year, and the decline in tax revenues from January to July narrowed significantly by 0.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The People's Bank of China has increased the quota of re-lending for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. Market sentiment is bullish, and liquidity is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury Bonds: The yield to maturity of the 10-year China Bond has decreased by 1bp, FR007 has increased by 7bps, and SHIBOR3M has remained flat. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on August 19, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial, reflecting the demand for "decentralization" and risk aversion. In terms of currency attributes, Trump's "Make America Great Again" bill has been passed, which may exacerbate the US debt problem and lead to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. In the process of de-dollarization, the non-fiat currency attribute of gold is prominent. In terms of financial attributes, in a global high-interest rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-yield bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of risk aversion, geopolitical risks have marginally weakened, but Trump's tariff policies have intensified global trade tensions, and market risk aversion remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. In terms of commodity attributes, the demand for physical gold in China has significantly increased, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has increased its holdings for eight consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest rate policy will be more cautious, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk aversion. According to the latest US data, non-farm payrolls show that the labor market is unexpectedly weak, non-farm employment is lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%. The PCE data in June shows that inflation has slowed down, with core PCE rising by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and PCE rising by 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding market expectations. In July, CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, the same as the previous month. In the short term, the prospect of peace between Russia and Ukraine may increase, which will suppress the risk aversion demand for gold. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reaches about 85%, and the rate cut expectation has been fully priced in. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech this week, and it is expected that the gold price will remain in high-level oscillation [4]. Light Industry and Agriculture - Pulp: The spot market price was stable on the previous trading day. The latest FOB price for softwood pulp remained at $720/ton, and for hardwood pulp at $500/ton. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high-priced pulp is low. Demand is in the off-season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is at a critical point. It is expected that pulp prices will mainly consolidate [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches, the willingness of processing plants to stock up has increased, and the average daily outbound volume has remained relatively stable at over 60,000 cubic meters. In July, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China was 1.476 million cubic meters, a 5% increase from the previous month. The shipment volume in July was low, and it is expected that the arrival volume in August will remain low. The expected arrival volume this week is 323,000 cubic meters, a month-on-month increase. The recent arrival of ships has decreased, and the supply pressure is not large. As of last week, the log inventory at ports was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters, approaching the critical threshold of 3 million cubic meters. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline. The spot market price is stable, with the price of 6-meter Class A logs in the Shandong spot market stable at 790 yuan/cubic meter and in the Jiangsu market at 800 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price in August is $116/cubic meter, a $2 increase from the previous month, and cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the spot market price is stable, the expected arrival of logs this week will increase month-on-month, the overall supply pressure is not large, and as the processing plants' willingness to stock up increases as September approaches, the average daily outbound volume remains at 63,000 cubic meters. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and it is expected that log prices will mainly range-bound [6]. - Oils and Fats: In July, Malaysian palm oil continued the trend of increasing production and inventory accumulation, but the ending inventory of 2.11 million tons was far lower than market expectations. Although the production increase was lower than expected, it was still at a relatively high level. Shipping agency data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil has been strong since August. Although the implementation time of Indonesia's biodiesel policy is uncertain, the demand growth still provides long-term support for palm oil prices. The import volume of soybeans to China in August remains high, oil mills have a high operating rate, and the export volume of soybean oil to India has increased, but it has not stopped the inventory accumulation trend of soybean oil in oil mills. Palm oil inventory may rebound, and rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory. The double festival stocking may gradually start, and demand will pick up. However, international crude oil futures have declined, and Chicago soybean oil futures have also fallen, dragging down the price of oils and fats. After a significant increase in the early stage, oils and fats may oscillate and correct in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Grains and Oilseeds: The USDA has significantly reduced the planted area of soybeans. Although the yield per unit has increased significantly, the initial inventory, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans have all decreased. Most US soybeans are in the critical pod-setting stage, and there is some rain in the central and western regions, but the temperature is high. The crop inspection data from ProFarmer shows that the number of pods per plant is higher than last year and the three-year average, and there are still expectations of a bumper harvest for US soybeans. The Ministry of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed, increasing the import cost, and the market is worried about a supply shortage. Before the export of US soybeans shows substantial improvement, the high premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is difficult to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is high, the operating rhythm of oil mills is generally high, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level, with a very abundant supply. After the downstream has completed centralized restocking, the purchasing sentiment has returned to caution. It is expected that soybean meal will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [6]. - Live Pigs: On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs in China continues to decline. The average trading weight of live pigs has dropped to 124.03 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01%. The average trading weights of live pigs in various provinces have fluctuated, but overall, they are still decreasing. The recent increase in temperature has slowed down the weight gain of live pigs, and after the premium of fat pigs over standard pigs turned positive, the price of large pigs is relatively high. Slaughtering enterprises have increased their procurement of low-priced standard pigs to relieve the procurement pressure, resulting in a decline in the overall procurement weight. As the breeding side may continue to adopt a weight reduction strategy and slaughtering enterprises will still focus on purchasing standard pigs, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most regions will continue to decline. On the demand side, the average settlement price of live pigs for key slaughtering enterprises in China last week was 14.17 yuan/kg. The settlement price has shown a downward trend. Affected by the accelerated slaughtering rhythm of the breeding side and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, slaughtering enterprises have pressured prices for procurement, causing the price to fall from a high level. The average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises is 33.25%, a month-on-month increase of 0.76 percentage points. The price difference between fat and standard pigs in China has shown an oscillating and fluctuating trend, and the overall average has remained stable. At the beginning of the week, due to the tight supply of large pigs in some regions, the price of fat pigs was supported, driving the price difference to widen. As the supply of large pigs in some regions increased and demand was flat, the price difference narrowed. Near the weekend, due to the increased enthusiasm of the breeding side for slaughtering, the concentrated release of standard pig supply led to a rapid decline in prices, causing the price difference to widen again. Against the background of a continuous increase in live pig supply and high temperatures continuing to restrict consumption demand, the weekly average price of live pigs in the next week may remain oscillating [8]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Natural Rubber: The impact of weather factors in the main natural rubber producing areas has weakened, but the geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, slightly interfering with rubber tapping work. The profit from rubber tapping in the Yunnan production area has increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials has supported the purchase price at a high level. The weather in the Hainan production area is currently good, but the overall latex production is lower than the same period last year and lower than expectations. Driven by the futures market, the procurement enthusiasm of local processing plants has increased, and the raw material purchase price has also increased. In Thailand, the price of cup lump rubber has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the rubber tapping progress in some areas is restricted by geopolitical factors. The weather in the Vietnam production area is good, and the raw material price has also shown an upward trend. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 69.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.80 percentage points. In terms of production, the overall capacity of semi-steel tire enterprises has been dragged down by the shutdown and production reduction of individual factories, while the utilization rate of full-steel tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of work of some maintenance enterprises and the moderate increase in production of enterprises with shortages. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires may show a differentiated trend. On the one hand, the resumption of work of

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals futures market is experiencing a decline, while international prices show mixed results, influenced by geopolitical developments and upcoming central bank meetings [1][3][4]. Price Movements - As of August 19, 2025, the main contracts for domestic gold and silver are priced at 775.28 CNY per gram (down 0.10%) and 9182.00 CNY per kilogram (down 0.30%), respectively [1]. - Internationally, COMEX gold is priced at 3380.40 CNY per ounce (up 0.07%), while COMEX silver is at 37.90 USD per ounce (down 0.45%) [1]. Market Analysis - On August 18, COMEX gold saw a slight decline, closing at 3377.0 USD per ounce (down 0.03%), while SHFE gold also fell to 775.04 CNY per gram (down 0.13%) [4]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to influence market expectations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could provide support for gold prices if dovish signals are communicated [4]. Geopolitical Context - The recent meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is a focal point, with discussions on security cooperation and potential future meetings involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. [3]. - Despite some progress in negotiations, significant geopolitical risks remain, which continue to support gold prices as a safe-haven asset [3].

Group 1 - Gold attracted some bargain buying during the Asian session on August 19, moving away from a two-week low reached the previous day, supported by increasing belief that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September [1][2] - Silver prices remained subdued for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading around $38.00 per ounce during the Asian session, facing challenges due to shrinking safe-haven demand amid positive signals regarding a potential resolution to the Ukraine-Russia war [1][2] - Market sentiment turned cautious ahead of talks between Trump and Zelensky, with geopolitical discussions attracting global attention, highlighting the importance of the upcoming meetings involving several European leaders [2] Group 2 - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September provided some support for silver prices, with market expectations for a rate cut currently at 84%, reinforcing the view that policy easing may begin next month [2] - Technical analysis indicates that spot gold is under pressure below the EMA50 moving average, with bearish signals from the RSI suggesting that sellers continue to dominate market trends [3] - Silver is hovering above a bearish double top formation, with a critical support level at $37.50; a decisive break below this level could open the door for further declines to $36.50 or even $35.50 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite short-term pressures on gold prices due to various negative factors, there is strong support for further long-term increases in gold prices [1][2] - Multiple negative factors, including the clarification of U.S. gold import tariffs and fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, have contributed to the recent decline in gold prices after failing to break the $3400 per ounce level [1] - The easing of geopolitical risks from U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Ukraine talks has led to a temporary reduction in market risk aversion, but underlying issues such as U.S. sovereign credit concerns and the global trend of de-dollarization remain significant [1][2] Group 2 - Long-term support for gold prices is driven by ongoing accumulation of U.S. debt, the implementation of the "Great Beauty" plan, and the potential weakening of the dollar's credibility [2] - The ongoing trade war is expected to hinder global economic recovery, which may enhance the investment value of gold [2] - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with potential rate cuts in the coming months, is anticipated to provide new upward momentum for gold prices [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant fluctuation in gold prices, with a notable increase to approximately $3357 per ounce after a drop to $3323.50 earlier in the day, driven by geopolitical risks [1][2] - Last week, international gold prices experienced a cumulative decline of 3.11%, marking the largest weekly drop since March of this year [1] - The focus of investors has shifted towards the U.S.-Ukraine talks, with geopolitical uncertainty continuing to drive demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - FXStreet's senior analyst Mehta indicates that the next bullish target for gold prices is at last week's high of $3375 per ounce, followed by a target of $3400 per ounce [3]

换资前言： 2025下半年你打算拿什么去面对自己曾经许下的宏愿？我们最初踏入这个市场，都怀揣着赚钱的梦想， 然而，一次次的锁仓，被套，亏损！在自己一次次的亏损里，套的越来越深，亏得越多了。我给不你了 太多保证，但有个词叫尽我所能，安稳盈利！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一(8月18日)亚市盘中，现货黄金突然大幅攀升，目前金价升至3357美元/盎司附近，日内大涨逾20美 元，亚市早盘金价一度跌至3323.50美元/盎司。但在地缘政治风险隐现之际，金价升向3360美元/盎司。 目前投资者焦点转向美乌会谈。地缘政治的不确定性继续在推动对传统价值储藏工具黄金的避险需求方 面发挥着关键作用。美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京上周末在阿拉斯加举行了备受期待的会晤，但没 有达成乌克兰和平协议。因此，所有人的目光都转向特朗普和乌克兰总统泽连斯基周一的会晤。 本周（8月21-23日）的杰克逊霍尔研讨会是市场焦点，尤其是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的年度演讲。 中央银行家将倾向于鸽派言论，避免鹰派立场，这可能支撑金价。会议可能影响美元走势，进而波及黄 金市场。鉴于经济日历相对清淡，杰克逊霍尔会议被视为潜 ...