Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices are hovering near historical highs despite escalating tariff disputes and monetary policy debates, with Nasdaq leading a 1.6% increase and S&P 500 rising 0.7% last week [1] - 112 S&P 500 constituents are set to report quarterly earnings, with a focus on major tech companies like Alphabet, Tesla, and Chipotle [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, stating that the federal funds rate is over 1 percentage point above reasonable levels, citing limited inflation risks [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have cooled, with the probability dropping from 13% to 5% over the past month [2] Earnings Season Insights - The second-quarter earnings season began with major banks exceeding expectations, followed by strong results from streaming giant Netflix, indicating robust consumer resilience [4] - Overall earnings for S&P 500 constituents are expected to grow by 5.6% year-over-year, up from a previous estimate of 4.8% [4] - Some stocks that had surged prior to earnings reports, like Netflix, saw declines post-announcement, highlighting the challenge of meeting high expectations [4] Tech Giants and Earnings Growth - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, including Alphabet and Tesla, are expected to lead S&P 500 earnings growth, with a projected 14.1% increase compared to a mere 3.4% for the remaining 493 stocks [8] - There is a growing expectation that the remaining stocks will contribute more significantly to earnings growth in upcoming quarters, which is a key signal for broader market rally hopes [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts emphasize the importance of corporate commentary in the current market environment, suggesting that positive developments are already being priced in [11] - There is a call for cyclical sectors to show growth turning points to further drive market expansion [11]

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariffs' impact on US inflation has partially emerged, with varying effects on different commodities, and further inflation effects will depend on the domestic production process [3][12] - The US still needs restrictive monetary policy to curb inflation from the demand side, and the relatively normal wage growth helps suppress inflation [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair alone may not change the policy direction and could damage monetary policy credibility. The Fed's rate - cut rhythm depends on tariffs' impact on inflation, and currently, a rate cut restart in October is expected [3][16] - If the Fed "changes leadership" soon, it may benefit the precious metals market and steepen the US Treasury yield curve [3][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Tariffs' impact on US inflation is partially reflected in terminal goods. Different products are affected differently, and the impact on inflation will further manifest with the domestic production process [3][12] - The US needs restrictive monetary policy to control inflation from the demand side. In June, the core commodity CPI expanded, and retail data showed resilience [3][15] - Replacing the Fed Chair may not change the overall FOMC attitude. The probability of Powell being replaced soon is low, and the Fed's rate - cut decision depends on tariff - inflation effects [3][16] - A list of high - frequency data's weekly环比 changes is provided, including data on food, other consumer goods, energy, metals, real estate, and shipping [19] High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export amounts [24][26][29] Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, employment data, sales data, financial conditions, and the implied interest - rate adjustment prospects of the Fed and ECB [84][86][91] Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Charts present the seasonal trends of various high - frequency data, including production data, price indices, and real - estate - related data [95][99][109] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in these four cities [152][154]

Group 1 - The stock indices collectively rose this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3534.48 points, up 0.69%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10913.84 points, up 2.04% [2][4] - Approximately 100 billion yuan was net withdrawn from stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs in the week, with significant outflows from major ETFs like the CSI 300 ETF [4][5] - The technology sector, particularly the Sci-Tech Chip ETF, saw a net inflow of over 1 billion yuan, while AI and healthcare-related ETFs experienced significant outflows [5][7] Group 2 - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 76.3 trillion yuan this week, with the Shanghai market accounting for 31 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market 45.3 trillion yuan [2] - The top-performing ETFs included the Sci-Tech Chip ETF, Securities ETF, and Semiconductor ETF, which saw net inflows of 16.93 billion yuan, 16.15 billion yuan, and 14.44 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF has experienced a continuous inflow of funds over the past five months, with a total increase of approximately 900 million shares and net inflows exceeding 13 billion yuan [8][10] Group 3 - 23 industry-themed ETFs saw net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with the AI ETF, healthcare ETF, and AI AI ETF experiencing the largest reductions in shares and net outflows of 12.98 billion yuan, 6.75 billion yuan, and 6.37 billion yuan, respectively [7][8] - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach a size of 700.87 billion USD by 2025, driven by logic and memory chips, with significant growth expected in AI applications [10]

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美联储古尔斯比：如果不确定性消除，降息是有可能实现的。 ...

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Group 1 - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba rising over 3% and Kingsoft Cloud increasing nearly 7%, indicating optimistic growth prospects for its cloud services business [1][2] - Netflix's stock rose by 2% after the company raised its full-year revenue forecast [1][2] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 53.82 points, or 0.12%, closing at 44,538.31 [3] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 77.94 points, or 0.37%, reaching 20,963.59 [3] - The S&P 500 index gained 14.74 points, or 0.23%, ending at 6,312.10 [3] Group 3 - Chevron's stock rose by 3% in pre-market trading after successfully completing the acquisition of Hess, winning a competitive bid against ExxonMobil [8][13] - Hess's stock also saw a pre-market increase of over 7% following the arbitration victory against Exxon, which facilitated Chevron's acquisition [12][13]

智通财经7月18日电，美国众议院议长约翰逊表示应该降息。 ...

美国众议院议长约翰逊表示应该降息。 ...