Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expected fluctuations in gold prices, driven by central bank demand, investment interest, and geopolitical risks, with projections indicating potential price movements between $4,500 and $5,100 per ounce in the coming months [1][2]. Group 1: Price Projections - The next key psychological and technical resistance level for gold is anticipated to be around $4,800 per ounce [1] - DBS Bank forecasts that gold prices may fluctuate around $4,500 per ounce in the first half of the year, with a potential rise to $5,100 per ounce in the second half [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Central bank allocation and investment demand are identified as key drivers for the increase in gold prices [1] - There is a strong willingness among central banks to increase gold holdings amid global trends of "de-dollarization" and "debt reduction" [1] - Concerns over the expanding scale of U.S. Treasury bonds have led investors to view gold as an alternative asset, further boosting investment demand [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Current high levels of global geopolitical risks are enhancing market risk aversion, providing strong support for rising gold prices [2] - Financial institutions, including Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued warnings regarding gold trading risks and adjusted rules to help investors manage market volatility [2]

陈霞昌 作为全球最大经济体的央行，美联储的任何风吹草动都具有强烈的全球溢出效应。此次刑事调查引发的市场恐 慌，已在短期内显现，长期更可能重塑全球资本流动格局与美元信用体系。 短期来看，避险情绪主导市场波动。这种波动源于市场对美联储政策稳定性的质疑——若美联储独立性受损，其 政策的可预测性将大幅下降，全球资产定价的"锚"将发生动摇。长期来看，美元信用基础与全球资本流动方向可 能发生深刻变化。美联储独立性是美元成为全球储备货币的核心支撑之一，若其政策被政治干预绑架，将直接削 弱全球投资者对美元资产的信心，加速"去美元化"进程。 本版专栏文章仅代表作者个人观点 此次调查并非孤立事件，而是特朗普政府系统性渗透美联储的延续。2025年8月，政府曾试图解除美联储理事莉萨· 库克职务，后被法院驳回；随后特朗普提名白宫经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事，后者多次在货币政策会议 上投出反对票，力推更大幅度降息。系列操作表明，行政权力正试图通过"安插亲信""法律施压"等手段掌控美联 储。若任其发展，美联储将从"经济守门人"沦为服务短期政治目标的工具。 美国经济正处于"通胀未达标、增长显乏力"的敏感阶段，通胀指标仍高于长期目标，而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by geopolitical factors, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and increased industrial demand, leading to a positive outlook for precious metals in the medium to long term [2][3][8]. Price Movements - As of January 12, gold reached a record high of $4610.68 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 2%, while silver rose more than 7% to surpass $85 per ounce, also setting a new historical record [2][3]. - International gold and silver futures hit historical highs of $4612.7 per ounce and $84.69 per ounce, respectively, with daily increases of 2% and 5% [3]. ETF Performance - Gold ETFs collectively rose, with the Guotou Silver LOF increasing by 7.11% [3]. - In the first seven trading days of 2026, gold ETFs saw net subscriptions exceeding 400 million shares, with the Huazhang Gold ETF approaching a scale of 100 billion yuan [3]. Institutional Insights - UBS Wealth Management raised its price forecast for gold, increasing target prices for March, June, and September 2026 from $4500 to $5000 per ounce, with a slight decline expected to $4800 by the end of 2026 [4]. - Analysts from various institutions express optimism about the long-term performance of gold and silver, citing a shift in investment logic towards strategic hedging against long-term structural risks [8][9]. Banking Sector Response - In response to high gold prices, banks are tightening risk management for gold-related businesses, raising the entry threshold for gold accumulation business to a balanced investment level [5][6]. - Several banks have launched structured deposits linked to gold, offering varying expected annual returns based on gold price fluctuations [6][7]. Industrial Demand - Increased demand for gold from central banks and industrial sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure is contributing to rising gold and silver prices [3][9].

陈霞昌 作为全球最大经济体的央行，美联储的任何风吹草动都具有强烈的全球溢出效应。此次刑事调查引发的 市场恐慌，已在短期内显现，长期更可能重塑全球资本流动格局与美元信用体系。 短期来看，避险情绪主导市场波动。这种波动源于市场对美联储政策稳定性的质疑——若美联储独立性 受损，其政策的可预测性将大幅下降，全球资产定价的"锚"将发生动摇。长期来看，美元信用基础与全 球资本流动方向可能发生深刻变化。美联储独立性是美元成为全球储备货币的核心支撑之一，若其政策 被政治干预绑架，将直接削弱全球投资者对美元资产的信心，加速"去美元化"进程。 本版专栏文章仅代表作者个人观点 此次调查并非孤立事件，而是特朗普政府系统性渗透美联储的延续。2025年8月，政府曾试图解除美联 储理事莉萨.库克职务，后被法院驳回；随后特朗普提名白宫经济顾问斯蒂芬.米兰出任美联储理事，后 者多次在货币政策会议上投出反对票，力推更大幅度降息。系列操作表明，行政权力正试图通过"安插 亲信""法律施压"等手段掌控美联储。若任其发展，美联储将从"经济守门人"沦为服务短期政治目标的 工具。 美国经济正处于"通胀未达标、增长显乏力"的敏感阶段，通胀指标仍高于长期目标， ...

受地缘政治高度不确定影响，美国纽约商品交易所黄金和白银期货价格11日上涨，2月黄金期货价格一 度突破每盎司4600美元，白银期价一度也在每盎司84美元高位附近波动，均创历史新高。观察人士认 为，美国政府强权行径将加速各国"去美元化"，对国际金价形成较强支撑。与此同时，由于白银市场供 应持续紧张，国际银价再度反弹。图为1月7日，上海南京路步行街一家白银专卖店工作人员在整理银 块。（详细报道见A08） ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, reaching $4,550 per ounce, reflects a significant market trend influenced by geopolitical instability and changes in the global monetary system, making gold a key asset for investors [1][5][6]. Group 1: Price Trends and Historical Context - Gold prices have hit a record high of $4,550 per ounce, marking the 50th new high in 2025, with an increase from $2,600 at the beginning of the year, representing a cumulative rise of over 70% [1][3]. - The price surge began in August 2025, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, leading to a rapid increase past $3,800 and $4,200 [3][5]. - A significant price drop occurred in mid-October 2025, with a single-day decline exceeding 6%, marking the largest drop in 12 years, causing panic among new investors [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The primary driver of the gold price increase is the historical trend of seeking gold during times of geopolitical turmoil, with current global tensions described as chaotic [5][6]. - Changes in the international monetary system are also pivotal, with the dollar's dominance declining and gold reserves in central banks rising, particularly in emerging markets like China, India, and Russia [6]. - The rise of the AI industry has increased gold's industrial demand, while slow growth in gold production has created a supply-demand imbalance, further pushing prices up [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market sentiment is divided, with optimistic forecasts from institutions like Goldman Sachs predicting gold could reach $5,000 by 2026, citing ongoing geopolitical instability and continued demand from central banks [8]. - Conversely, pessimistic views warn of overvaluation and potential corrections if geopolitical tensions ease or if the Federal Reserve alters its monetary policy [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Risks - Investment in gold is recommended, but caution is advised against following trends blindly; gold should serve as a hedge rather than a high-return investment, with suggested allocations of 10%-20% of total assets [8][9]. - Different investment methods are suitable for varying investor profiles: physical gold for long-term investors, paper gold or ETFs for short-term investors, and futures for experienced traders [9]. - Common scams in gold investment include high-yield promises and fraudulent platforms, emphasizing the need for vigilance and skepticism towards offers that seem too good to be true [10].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged, breaking the historical threshold of $4600 per ounce, driven by factors such as concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of January 12, the London gold price rose by 1.92%, reaching $4595.753 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4601.38 [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also experienced an increase of 2.13%, trading at $4596.7 per ounce, with a peak of $4612.7 [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened market demand for safe-haven assets due to escalating military conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence following news of an investigation into its chairman [4]. - Analysts highlight three main reasons for the gold price surge: ongoing de-dollarization efforts by central banks, increased geopolitical tensions, and a weakening dollar alongside persistent inflation concerns [4]. - The supply-demand dynamics are also contributing, with global gold production around 3500 tons annually, while central banks have been purchasing over 1000 tons of gold each year, accounting for nearly one-third of the annual production [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on precious metals, suggesting that the investigation into the Federal Reserve chairman may accelerate existing upward trends rather than create short-term volatility [5]. - The potential for a long-term upward trend in gold prices is reinforced by the ongoing geopolitical risks and central banks' continued gold purchases [5]. - However, there are signals to watch for that could impact the market, including the possibility of the investigation concluding without substantial evidence, a new Fed chair reaffirming policy independence, or unexpected inflation prompting tighter monetary policy [6].

Group 1 - The market sentiment of "selling America" is spreading due to escalating attacks from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1][2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, marking its largest decline since December 23 of the previous year, while S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.7% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.20%, potentially reaching its highest closing price since September of the previous year [1] Group 2 - Strategists warn that if tensions continue to escalate, the sell-off may intensify, with Morgan Stanley highlighting the risk of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [2] - UBS's chief strategist noted that now is not the time for markets to worry about the Fed's independence, as inflation in the U.S. may rise in the coming months [2] - The debate centers on the extent to which the President can influence national interest rate policy, which has traditionally been insulated from political interference [2] Group 3 - The news of the Fed receiving a subpoena may further diminish the attractiveness of U.S. assets, as noted by a strategist from Invesco [3] - Concerns about the Fed's independence could lead macro traders to increase short positions on the dollar [3] - The pressure to "sell America" is unlikely to dissipate as trading unfolds into 2026 [4] Group 4 - Some analysts maintain a cautious outlook, suggesting that any pullback could present a buying opportunity due to the dollar's strong reserve currency status and the liquidity of U.S. Treasuries [4] - The investigation facing Powell appears more like a smokescreen than a real threat, but its long-term implications could be significant [4]

来源：FT中文网 美国抓捕马杜罗对美元有直接的负面影响，同时，对人民币国际化有间接的正面影响。 文丨李楠、陈开宇 2026新年伊始，美国发动了对委内瑞拉的军事袭击，堪比好莱坞编剧设计的剧情，美国特种兵成功地抓捕了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并押送回美国受审。国 际社会一片哗然，此事件对国际秩序、军事线路、国际法、地缘政治等多方面的影响众说纷纭。本文重点讨论此事件对美元、虚拟货币和人民币国际化的 影响。 我们认为，美国抓捕马杜罗对美元有直接的负面影响，会推高虚拟货币的价格和波动，同时，对人民币国际化有间接的正面影响。 一、美元霸权走弱源自美国财政的"滞胀循环" 2026年极可能爆发历史上最大的全球金融危机，而这个危机的根源来自于美元。 其次，美元的信任基础在快速削弱。从"长臂管辖""踢出SWIFT"等手段开始，美元开始不受信任。世界上主要大宗商品交易中，使用美元的比重正在下 降；中国的CIPS交易量屡创记录。 其三，美元和美债作为外汇储备资产的吸引力在下降。2025年，各国央行的黄金储备量增加，推动了主要的避险资产黄金的价格屡创新高，甚至已经不再 是避险资产的白银等贵金属的价格也创记录地大涨。 在世界对美元信心不断削弱 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the global financial market witnessed a historic moment on January 12, 2026, with the London spot gold price surpassing $4600 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in a seven-year bull market for gold [1][3] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to two main drivers: escalating global geopolitical conflicts and a crisis of confidence in the Federal Reserve [5][6][7] - The geopolitical tensions include various conflicts, such as the U.S. operation in Venezuela and ongoing issues in Iran, which have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][7] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's credibility is under scrutiny due to a criminal investigation involving its chairman and the potential for a more dovish new chairman, which could lead to lower interest rates and a depreciation of the dollar [7][11] - The article highlights that the price of gold has risen significantly, with a 70% increase in 2025 and a rapid rise from around $4300 to $4600 within just 12 days in 2026 [3][11] - Future predictions for gold prices are optimistic, with institutions like CITIC Securities forecasting prices could exceed $5100 by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan is even more aggressive, predicting a rise to $6000 [11][12]