新华财经北京11月25日电（王菁）债市周二（11月25日）小幅走弱，国债期货全线收跌，银行间现券收 益率小幅回升0.5BP左右；公开市场单日净回笼1054亿元，多项扰动已过、资金利率多数回落。 机构认为，年内货币政策缺乏想象空间对债市形成压制，在此前修复行情过后，市场机构普遍做多信心 不足。亦有观点指出，债市情绪依然脆弱，在12月中央经济工作会议之前，债市行情或仍延续震荡。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.33%报115.16，10年期主力合约跌0.08%报108.22，5年期 主力合约持平于105.98，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.422。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行0.85BP报2.1685%，10 年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行0.45BP报1.878%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上行0.45BP报 1.8175%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.22%，报485.08点，成交金额624.32亿元。欧通转债、振华转债、大中转债、 国城转债、利扬转债涨幅居前，分别涨9.35%、8.19%、7.85%、7.79 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 1 trillion yuan, indicating a net injection of 100 billion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1] Group 1: MLF Operation Details - The PBOC's MLF operation was conducted using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price levels [1] - The operation has a term of one year, with 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Reasons for Continued High Net Injection - The high net injection in November is attributed to three main factors: 1. The central government arranged for 500 billion yuan of local government debt to address existing debt and expand effective investment, leading to an increase in net financing of government bonds [1] 2. The completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools in October, which boosted entrusted loans and is expected to drive the rapid issuance of matching medium- and long-term loans [1] 3. A significant increase in the maturity volume of interbank certificates of deposit in November [1] Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - The PBOC's continued MLF operations signal a sustained supportive stance in monetary policy, which is expected to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, support government bond issuance, and stabilize market expectations [1]

Group 1 - The China Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index (931078) increased by 0.18% as of November 25, 2025, with the Convertible Bond ETF (511380) rising by 0.16% to a latest price of 13.48 yuan. Over the past six months, the Convertible Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 12.24% [2] - The trading volume of the Convertible Bond ETF was active, with an intraday turnover of 11.58% and a transaction value of 6.747 billion yuan. The average daily transaction value over the past week was 11.313 billion yuan [2] - The convertible bond market demonstrated strong defensive characteristics during the recent equity market correction, with the China Convertible Bond Index declining by 1.78%, outperforming major broad-based indices. The median premium rate for par value has increased, indicating a stabilization and recovery in valuations [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, 2025, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for the month, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased liquidity measures [2] Group 2 - A new payment tool called "targeted convertible bonds" is gaining attention in the market, particularly favored by technology innovation enterprises. This tool can balance the benefits and risks for both parties in mergers and acquisitions while optimizing transaction structure flexibility [3] - The overall bond market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation pattern, with weak sentiment in the equity market and a lack of clear trading themes in the bond market. However, the PBOC's unchanged stance is expected to quickly alleviate liquidity issues, presenting a buying opportunity for the market [3] - The latest scale of the Convertible Bond ETF reached 58.046 billion yuan, with a recent net outflow of 554 million yuan. Over the past five trading days, there were net inflows on four days, totaling 2.118 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 424 million yuan [3] - The Convertible Bond ETF closely tracks the China Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index, which consists of convertible and exchangeable bonds listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, calculated using a market capitalization weighting method [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core Viewpoints - Multiple Fed officials have expressed a dovish monetary policy stance. Although there is still uncertainty about a December rate cut, short-term market expectations for monetary easing have improved. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish range, and the silver price is expected to be slightly stronger than gold, with the gold-silver ratio expected to narrow [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of the pace of rate cuts, Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December due to the weak labor market, and he believes that the delayed economic reports after the December meeting may make the January decision more difficult. San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month, believing that the sudden deterioration of the job market is more likely and harder to control than a sudden rise in inflation. Geopolitically, the US and Ukraine have completed a new 19-point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided by Trump and Zelensky, and Russia believes the European peace plan is not constructive and does not serve its interests [2]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 933.98 yuan/gram and closed at 930.32 yuan/gram, a change of 0.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 935.60 yuan/gram and closed at 938.68 yuan/gram, up 0.90% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,715.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,808.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,574,854 lots, and the open interest was 347,468 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,890 yuan/kg and closed at 11,975 yuan/kg, up 1.41% from the afternoon close [3]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.029%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.54%, up 0.77 BP from the previous trading day [4]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 24, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 3,016 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 1,044 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 472,495 lots, a change of 8.79% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, in the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by -2,997 lots, and the short positions changed by 138 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,108,210 lots, a change of 14.26% from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF holdings were 1,040.57 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,258 tons, an increase of 11 tons from the previous trading day [6]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 24, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -10.56 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,173.15 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 78.79, a change of 2.55% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.48, a change of 3.24% from the previous trading day [7]. Fundamentals - On November 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,158 kg, a change of -2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 724,146 kg, a change of 106.05% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 45,840 kg [8]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to be in a slightly bullish range, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 915 yuan/gram and 955 yuan/gram [9]. - Silver: The price is expected to maintain a slightly bullish range, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,700 yuan/kg and 12,200 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10]

2025年11月25日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.460 | 102.418 | 105.890 | 105.995 | 108.505 | 108.335 | 115.76 | 115.58 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.460 | 102.410 | 105.855 | 105.905 | 108.430 | 108.240 | 115.57 | 115.37 | | | 涨跌 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.035 | 0.090 | 0.075 | 0.095 | 0.190 | 0.2 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of pricing strategies in achieving success by 2026, emphasizing the need for effective fiscal and monetary policies [2][6] - Expectations for future risk-free interest rate trends are analyzed, indicating potential shifts that could impact investment decisions [6] - The article highlights the significance of understanding market dynamics and policy implications for long-term investment strategies [6] Group 2 - The research emphasizes the role of macroeconomic indicators in shaping investment opportunities and risks in the coming years [4] - Insights into the anticipated fiscal policies and their potential effects on various sectors are provided, suggesting areas for strategic focus [4][6] - The analysis includes projections for economic growth and market performance, which are crucial for investors to consider [4][6]

Core Insights - The latest research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve indicates that tariff increases have a "short-term cooling, long-term rebound" effect on inflation, suggesting that while inflation may temporarily decrease, it will eventually exceed levels without policy changes, accompanied by brief fluctuations in unemployment [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The study reveals that after a tariff increase, both consumers and businesses reduce spending due to tightened cost expectations, leading to a temporary slowdown in economic activity and a decrease in inflation [3][4]. - Specifically, a 1% increase in the average tariff rate typically results in a 10 basis point rise in unemployment after one year, with this effect dissipating in the following year [3][4]. - Initially, inflation may decrease by 10 basis points, but this cooling effect fades within the first year, followed by a cumulative increase of 10 basis points in inflation over the next two years, ultimately surpassing pre-policy intervention levels [3][4]. Group 2: Complexity of Tariff Effects - The research highlights the complexity of tariff impacts, noting that while tariffs raise prices at customs, companies may absorb costs by lowering profit margins or adjusting supply chains, and consumers may alter purchasing habits [4]. - The study emphasizes the unprecedented scale and scope of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, with the weighted average tariff rate rising from 2.5% to 13.6%, necessitating cautious interpretation of the research findings [4]. - The current tariff policies have reportedly eroded real income growth for American households due to inflation, with core PCE inflation expected to rise by 0.8 percentage points as a result of these tariffs [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, indicating a proactive approach to maintain liquidity in the banking system amid potential tightening [1][2][3]. Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC's 1 trillion yuan MLF operation marks the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance, with a total net injection of 600 billion yuan in November, maintaining a high level of liquidity [2][3]. - The MLF operation is aimed at countering the expected liquidity tightening, ensuring that the funding environment remains stable and abundant [1][3][4]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Following the MLF operation, market expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions have diminished [1][5]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC will continue to utilize MLF and reverse repos to inject liquidity, signaling a sustained supportive monetary policy stance [6][8]. Group 3: Economic Context - The ongoing liquidity support is seen as essential for facilitating government bond issuance and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply, especially in light of recent economic downturns [3][4][8]. - The anticipated issuance of additional local government bonds and the completion of new policy financial instruments are expected to further influence liquidity dynamics in the banking system [3][4].

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025, up by 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts, and a growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from July predictions [1] - Chief Economist at ICBC International, Cheng Shi, indicates that the global economy is entering a phase characterized by fiscal dominance amid multiple uncertainties [1] Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy - Cheng Shi notes that major economies are increasing fiscal expansion to counteract downward pressures, as monetary policy transmission efficiency is limited due to high debt levels [1] - The anticipated monetary policy landscape for 2026 suggests that most major central banks will adopt a wait-and-see approach, with the European Central Bank pausing activities and the Bank of England nearing the end of rate cuts [2] U.S. Economic Projections - U.S. investment and consumption are expected to slow down, with GDP growth projected at around 1.8% and inflation at approximately 2.9% in 2026 [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to a neutral level of 3% to 3.25% [2] Investment Outlook - Barclays forecasts that U.S. tech stocks will continue to lead the market in 2026, driven by sustained growth in AI-related capital expenditures and robust performance in cloud services and digital advertising [2] - Chinese stocks are also viewed positively, with expectations of strong performance in 2025 and a low valuation compared to other major markets [3] Market Dynamics in China - The Hang Seng Index has shown significant gains, with a rise of over 30% since 2025, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by over 50% [3] - Analysts believe that the current A-share market has room for upward movement, supported by substantial household savings in China [3][4]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that in the short - term, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, but the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy still exists. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and they will mainly show an oscillatory pattern [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillatory", the medium - term view is "oscillatory", and the intraday view is "weak". The reference view is "oscillatory consolidation", with the core logic being that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined while the long - term loose expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillatory", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly rebounded yesterday. In October, economic data such as consumption and investment weakened, and the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. The long - term policy loose expectation supports treasury bond futures, but the necessity of policy intensification within the year is not strong, and the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, limiting the upward momentum of treasury bond futures. Currently, there are signs of weakening both at home and abroad, and short - term risk - aversion demand supports the demand side of treasury bonds [5].