美指100.10-20区间多，防守5美金，目标101-101.80 宏观面 近期黄金市场波动剧烈，从历史高位显著回调，引发市场热议。其价格下跌主要受两大因素驱动：一是全球贸易紧张局势缓和，中美大幅降低关税并暂停部 分关税 90 天，极大提振市场风险偏好，投资者纷纷撤离避险资产，黄金需求下降；二是美元指数探底回升，周三美元指数上涨 0.08%，美国国债收益率也 创下六周新高，10 年期国债收益率突破 4.5%，美联储降息预期调整，使得黄金这类无息资产吸引力下降。不过，地缘政治风险并未完全消散，美欧贸易谈 判进展缓慢，未来或重新提振黄金避险需求。短期来看，贸易乐观情绪和美元走强或继续压制金价；但中长期，地缘政治不确定性、通胀压力及央行购金需 求将为金价提供支撑。投资者需密切关注贸易谈判、美国经济数据、美联储政策等因素，把握黄金市场波动中的投资机会。 美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周三美元指数呈现出探底回升态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至101.117的位置，最低则下探至100.242，最终以 101.046的价格收 盘。回顾周三市场表现，在早盘期间价格短线震荡运行，随后正如笔者所言价格进一步下跌，对于欧盘前价格接 ...

黄金市场的这轮调整既是风险情绪改善的结果，也反映了投资者对前期涨幅的获利了结需求。在贸易局 势、货币政策和经济数据的多重博弈下，黄金价格可能维持高波动状态。本交易日将出炉美国4月PPI数 据和零售销售月率，后者俗称"恐怖数据"，投资者需要重点关注。另外，投资者需要继续关注美联储官 员的讲话和美联储降息预期的变化；此外，投资者还需关注特朗普的中东之行和俄乌在土耳其的停火谈 判，留意市场避险情绪的变化。 市场分析师对黄金后市看法出现明显分歧。这对黄金构成压力。芝加哥联储总裁古尔斯比和副主席杰斐 逊均表示需要更多数据来判断通胀和经济走向，这种谨慎态度增加了政策不确定性。另一方面，仍有分 析师认为黄金长期上涨趋势未改，当前回调是入场良机。最终可能会陷入僵局，欧盟仍将面临关税"， 暗示贸易风险可能卷土重来。 面对复杂的市场环境，投资者需要权衡多重因素。短期来看，贸易乐观情绪和美元走强可能继续压制金 价，技术面也显示下行风险尚未完全释放。但中长期而言，全球地缘政治不确定性、潜在的通胀压力以 及各国央行的购金需求仍构成支撑。"虽然早先的关税政策已暂停，但尚未达成最终协议。"这种不确定 性意味着黄金作为避险资产的角色不会轻易 ...

此前金价一路狂飙，不少消费者对黄金投资心动不已。有报告显示，2025年一季度， 全球黄金投资总需求量为552吨，同比暴增170% ；全 球金条金币总需求为325吨，同比增长3%，比五年季度平均水平高出15%。 COMEX黄金 跌近1%。 | < W | COMEX黄金 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | | 3162.6 | | 昨结 | 3188.3 | 总手 | 2.74万 | | | -25.7 | | -0.81% -- | 3180.8 | 现手 | | | | 最高价 | | 3195.6 持 仓 | 19.70万 | 外 盘 | 1.30万 | | | 最低价 | 3160.6 | 增 仓 | -7431 | 内 盘 | 1.43万 | | | 4784 | 五日 | 目K | 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | 甲名 ( | | | 叠加 | | | 均价:3180.5 | | | | | 3216.0 | | | | 0.87% 卖一 | 3162.7 | 2 | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The sudden drop in gold prices has led to significant losses for investors, with many expressing their frustrations on social media as the value of their gold investments plummeted [2][3][5] - Gold, once seen as a safe haven asset, has experienced a dramatic shift in perception due to a decrease in geopolitical risks and positive signals from US-China trade talks, which have redirected investor interest towards riskier assets [3][4] - The concentration of profit-taking among investors has exacerbated the decline in gold prices, with automated trading programs contributing to the sell-off as they triggered sell orders when prices fell below certain thresholds [4][5] Group 2 - Despite the current downturn, experts maintain a long-term positive outlook for gold, citing its enduring safe-haven and monetary properties, supported by continued central bank purchases [5][6] - The recent volatility in gold prices serves as a reminder of the inherent risks in gold investment, highlighting the importance of a rational approach to investing rather than chasing short-term gains [5][6][8] - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective, with recommendations to allocate 10%-15% of their portfolios to gold, and to focus on their investment objectives, whether for short-term trading or long-term preservation of value [6][8]

风险偏好打压避险资产，金价下跌 金十数据5月14日讯，黄金下跌，因投资者的风险偏好增强，尽管围绕关税谈判路径的不确定性挥之不 去，而且对今年降息的乐观情绪有所增强。Forex.com市场分析师法瓦德•拉扎克扎达表示："随着关税 降低，以及谈判显示出实际进展，投资者正变得越来越放心。更重要的是，周二美国公布的低于预期的 通胀数据火上浇油，安抚了特朗普的贸易关税将引发新一轮通胀浪潮的紧张情绪。看跌势头可能会持续 几天，但长期看涨前景仍然完好无损。" ...

Core Insights - Investors are actively seeking alternatives to gold as a safe-haven asset due to increasing volatility and rising costs associated with gold investments [2][4] Group 1: Alternatives to Gold - Digital currencies, rare metals, and alternative investments are gaining traction among mainstream investors, offering both safe-haven characteristics and liquidity advantages [4] - Bitcoin is being recognized as "digital gold," with its scarcity increasing post the 2024 halving event, and institutional acceptance growing, as evidenced by Bitcoin ETF assets surpassing $50 billion [5] - Stablecoins like USDT and USDC provide a compromise by maintaining a 1:1 peg to the dollar, offering the convenience of blockchain while mitigating price volatility risks [7] Group 2: Rare Metals - Silver, platinum, and palladium are also considered undervalued safe-haven options, with silver demand projected to rise by 23% in the photovoltaic industry by 2025, while supply only increases by 5% [8] - Platinum is expected to see exponential demand growth due to its role in hydrogen energy, with countries like Japan and South Korea incorporating it into national strategic reserves [8] - Rare earth elements are becoming increasingly strategic, with China controlling over 80% of global supply, while the U.S. and EU are working to establish alternative supply chains [8] Group 3: Alternative Safe-Haven Assets - Agricultural commodities are emerging as a new hedge against inflation, with a 320% year-on-year increase in inflows into agricultural ETFs in Q1 2025 [9] - Infrastructure REITs provide protection through physical assets, with annual returns projected between 6-9% due to stable cash flows linked to inflation indices [11] - The art and collectibles market is becoming more institutionalized, with blockchain technology lowering entry barriers for high-end collectibles, evidenced by a 450% increase in trading volume [11] Group 4: Investment Strategy for 2025 - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, allocating 40% to traditional safe-haven assets (gold, silver), 30% to innovative safe-haven assets (Bitcoin, stablecoins), and 30% to growth-oriented safe-haven assets (rare earths, agricultural commodities) [12] - Implementing a dynamic adjustment mechanism with quarterly rebalancing and options strategies to hedge tail risks is crucial [12] - Geographic diversification is important, as different regions have varying preferences for safe-haven assets, which can mitigate the impact of market volatility [12]

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including investor behavior, inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and the performance of the US dollar [1][10]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - The phenomenon of buying on dips acts as an invisible "safety net" in the gold market, with significant buying interest emerging when prices drop, reflecting investors' strong belief in gold as a "ultimate safe-haven asset" [3]. - After gold prices fell to a low of $3207.30 per ounce, a surge of buying interest quickly entered the market, indicating a robust demand for gold amidst economic uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The US Labor Department reported a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which was below the expected 0.3%, providing a boost to gold prices [4]. - The mild inflation report is expected to support the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against inflation [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the potential talks between Ukraine and Russia, continue to provide strong support for gold prices [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events reinforces the historical wisdom of buying gold during tumultuous times, as investors seek to protect their assets from potential losses [5]. Group 4: US Dollar Performance - The US dollar index fell by 0.8% to 100.98, contrasting with the rise in gold prices, highlighting the negative correlation between the two [7]. - Despite easing trade tensions between the US and China, the dollar remains lower than its level when tariffs were announced, influencing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and subsequently gold prices [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Gold faces three key variables: the progress of US-China trade negotiations, the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the evolution of global geopolitical risks [8]. - The market is advised to monitor these factors closely, as they will significantly impact risk appetite and demand for gold [8].

自美国总统特朗普的关税攻势加速以来，全球股指在过山车般的六周时间里收复了失地。 一些策略师迅速做出反应。高盛的David Kostin将标普500指数的未来12个月预测从6200点上调至6500 点，意味着在关税税率降低、经济增长前景更强劲以及衰退风险减小的情况下，美股还有11%的上涨空 间。野村控股策略师将中国股票评级上调至"战术性增持"。 特朗普重塑全球贸易环境的愿望已在全球市场播下了不确定性。MSCI全球股票指数在4月2日特朗普宣 布关税后两天下跌8.6%，美银美林美债选择权波动率（MOVE指数）和股票VIX指数等波动率指标飙 升。 鉴于这种走势的逆转以及市场重返风险资产，避险资产回落，瑞士法郎和日元周一贬值至4月初以来的 水平。然而，黄金仅轻微削弱了自4月2日以来的出色表现，并将年内涨幅收窄至20%左右。 自4月2日以来，许多避险资产一直坚挺 中美之间达成贸易协议提振了全球数十个股指，并帮助包括标普500指数在内的一些指数超过了4月2日 提议征收关税前的水平。香港恒生指数较上月低点上涨17%，而中国沪深300指数上涨超过8%。包括英 国富时100指数和法国CAC 40指数在内的一些欧洲指数接近收复自关 ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading around 147.00, with a decline of 0.26%, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, as the Fed adopts a dovish stance while the BoJ signals normalization [1] - The Japanese yen has shown a strong upward trend, supported by hawkish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, indicating potential rate hikes if economic conditions improve [1] - The US April CPI year-on-year rate fell to 2.3%, weaker than market expectations, leading to market speculation of two rate cuts by the Fed by 2025, totaling a reduction of 56 basis points [1] Group 2 - Despite a recovery in global trade sentiment, investors still prefer the yen over the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid current geopolitical tensions [2] - From a technical perspective, a recent breakout above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart supports bullish traders, with potential buying opportunities near the 146.60-146.55 area [2] - A drop below 147.00 could trigger technical selling, pushing the USD/JPY pair down to 146.00, and potentially towards the 145.40 area, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level [2] Group 3 - The 147.65 area is identified as a key resistance level, with potential for the USD/JPY exchange rate to rise to 148.00 and further towards the 148.25-148.30 range [3] - Continued buying above the 148.30 level could trigger further upward movement, pushing prices above 149.00 and towards the psychological level of 150.00 [3]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen serves as an important indicator of both the Japanese economy and global economic trends, experiencing a significant decline recently after a period of appreciation [1] - On May 12, the yen depreciated sharply against the dollar, reaching around 148.00, with a daily high of 148.59, marking the highest level since April 3 [1] - The decline in the yen's value is attributed to reduced investor risk aversion following a 90-day tariff reduction agreement between China and the U.S., which has improved global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - In April, the yen was a favored target for institutional investors, with net long positions increasing by 58,000 contracts to a historical high of 179,000 contracts [2] - The yen appreciated over 3% since the beginning of April, reflecting strong demand from investors [2][3] - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar has been on an upward trend for three consecutive weeks in April, with a total appreciation exceeding 3% [3] Group 3 - The Japanese economy remains fundamentally strong, and the gradual tightening of monetary policy and potential interest rate hikes could support further appreciation of the yen [3] - Current exchange rates for the yen against the dollar are considered undervalued, with expectations for a stronger performance in the near future [3] - The outcome of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations will significantly impact the yen's value, with successful agreements likely to bolster the yen, while failures could lead to depreciation [3]