记者丨 凌晨 编辑丨陈洁 2026年"两新"政策发布之后，元旦提振消费的力度进一步加大。 2025年12月30日，国家发展改革委和财政部联合对外发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新 和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），提出在汽车报废更新、汽车置换更 新、家电、数码和智能产品等领域，实施消费品以旧换新政策。 近日，国家发展改革委会同财政部，已向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债 支持消费品以旧换新资金计划。 2026年元旦，消费品以旧换新政策的落地情况如何？21世纪经济报道记者走访西安市区线下门 店获悉，自2026年1月1日以来，位于西安的大部分线下门店，已启动最新的"国补"政策。 "我们目前主要补贴品类是电视、冰箱、洗衣机等，除了部分厨电机器不参与补贴外，基本都 有千元左右的补贴。"西安市北大明宫钻石店商家对21世纪经济报道记者表示。 2025年12月10日—11日在北京召开的中央经济工作会议提出，优化"两新"政策实施。清理消 费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。 12月底发布的《通知》，明确继续支持汽车、家电、数码和智能产品等重点商品的以旧换新。 为满足元旦、春节消费需 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The implementation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2026 is expected to boost the industry's outlook, particularly for passenger vehicles, heavy trucks, and buses, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and established export-oriented companies [2][26]. - The heavy truck segment is anticipated to see a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [30]. - The bus segment is projected to maintain growth, with an estimated sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, a 5% increase year-on-year [30]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [27]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The short-term outlook is positive due to the new subsidy policies, with expectations for a recovery in demand in Q1 2026. Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD [2][26]. - The 2026 subsidy budget is projected at 125 billion yuan, which could drive an additional sales increase of 780,000 to 1.54 million units [15]. Heavy Trucks - The 2026 trade-in policy for heavy trucks has exceeded expectations, with subsidies remaining at previous levels. The anticipated sales volume for 2026 is optimistic, with a target of 800,000 to 850,000 units [30][19]. - Recommended companies in this segment include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and FAW Jiefang [30]. Buses - The bus segment's policy has also exceeded expectations, with a projected sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [30][18]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [30]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to see a total sales volume of 19.38 million units in 2026, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow significantly [27]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [27].

有投资者在互动平台向伊之密提问："请问国家发展改革委、财政部关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和 消费品以旧换新政策的通知。对公司业务影响正面吗？" 来源：市场资讯 针对上述提问，伊之密回应称："尊敬的投资者，您好。以旧换新政策对公司业务有一定的正面影响， 有望对公司注塑、压铸装备及自动化整体解决方案等形成需求传导。公司会积极把握契合公司发展的合 作机会。感谢您的关注。" 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electric two-wheeler market in China has undergone significant evolution, with various phases of growth and stabilization, influenced by technological advancements, regulatory changes, and market dynamics [3][4][8]. Market Development Stages - The electric two-wheeler industry can be divided into several stages: 1. **Initial Stage (2000-2003)**: Performance improvements led to the replacement of motorcycles, supported by policies limiting motorcycle use, resulting in initial sales growth [3]. 2. **Rapid Growth and Stabilization (2004-2018)**: Legal recognition as a non-motor vehicle in 2004 led to increased consumer acceptance, with sales rising from millions to 30-40 million units, stabilizing around 30 million post-2013 due to intensified competition [4]. 3. **New National Standards Catalyzing Expansion (2019-2023)**: The introduction of new standards in 2019 accelerated the replacement of non-compliant models, with sales reaching 55 million units in 2023, a 49.46% increase from 2019 [4]. 4. **New Standards Revision and Trade-in Policies (2024-Present)**: Anticipated regulatory changes and market challenges are expected to lead to a 9.10% decline in sales in 2024, but recovery is projected with the implementation of revised standards and trade-in incentives in 2025 [4]. Market Players and Competition - Major players in the electric two-wheeler market include Yadea, Aima, New Day, and Tailg, with Yadea and Aima leading in market share and retail revenue. The market has seen increased concentration post-2019, with stronger players gaining significant market share as weaker competitors exit [7][8]. Regulatory Environment - The upcoming revision of national standards and the introduction of trade-in policies are expected to enhance market regulation and promote higher industry standards. The "one vehicle, one ticket" system will enforce stricter quality controls, leading to the elimination of substandard products [8][9]. Trade-in Policies - The implementation of trade-in policies by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments aims to boost sales by providing subsidies for consumers who exchange old electric two-wheelers for new ones. This initiative is set to continue into 2025, with local governments encouraged to align subsidy standards with previous years [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy policy is expected to boost marginal improvements in passenger car demand in Q1 2026, with subsidies remaining at the same cap as in 2025 but shifting from fixed amounts to percentage-based subsidies [8][11] - The report highlights the anticipated release of Tesla's Optimus V3 in Q1 2026, which is expected to increase interest in the robotics sector, with numerous domestic companies preparing for IPOs [12] - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for companies involved in overseas expansion, reflecting strong demand for overseas orders and indicating that international business will become a significant growth point for automotive parts companies [13] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Companies in the automotive supply chain that are expected to benefit include Tesla, Figure, Zhiyuan, and Yushu, with a focus on humanoid robotics, liquid cooling, and autonomous driving technology [3][14] - Specific liquid cooling related stocks include Yingweike, Yinlun, Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Feilong, and Chuanhuan Technology [3][14] - Other related stocks include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, and several others, with a total of over 30 companies in the robotics supply chain preparing for IPOs [3][14][15] Market Trends - The report notes a decline in weekly passenger car sales, with a 13% year-on-year drop in wholesale sales during the week of December 22-28, 2025 [16] - The automotive parts sector outperformed the broader market, with a 3.63% increase, while the overall automotive industry saw mixed results [35][36] Company Announcements - Geely Auto reported a December 2025 sales figure of 236,800 units, a 13% increase year-on-year, and set a 2026 sales target of 3.45 million units [47] - NIO delivered 48,100 vehicles in December 2025, marking a 54.6% year-on-year increase, with a total annual delivery of 326,000 units [49] - XPeng delivered 37,500 vehicles in December 2025, achieving a total of 429,400 units for the year, a 126% increase [48]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 aims to boost consumer spending and enhance domestic demand, with a focus on optimizing the use of funds and improving policy effectiveness [1][2][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The government plans to continue supporting consumer spending through the "old-for-new" policy, which has shown significant results, with sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people in 2025 [1][2]. - The 2026 fiscal policy will prioritize the optimization of the "old-for-new" program, focusing on key consumer goods such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters [2][3]. - The central government has allocated 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old-for-new" policy, ensuring funds are available for peak consumption periods like New Year and Spring Festival [4]. Group 2: Financial Coordination - The emphasis on fiscal and financial policy coordination is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of consumer support measures, with a focus on lowering credit costs and increasing policy coverage [4][5]. - The government aims to improve the efficiency of fund allocation and usage, ensuring that financial resources are directed towards high-impact consumer goods to maximize the benefits of fiscal spending [2][4]. - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to create a synergistic effect, enhancing overall market vitality and improving the quality of life for consumers [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy-duty truck sector [7]. Core Insights - The 2026 vehicle replacement policy will support the replacement of old trucks with low-emission vehicles, prioritizing electric trucks, while maintaining the subsidy levels from 2025 [2][5]. - The heavy-duty truck sector is expected to benefit from continued domestic demand support and growth in exports, with a projected total sales volume of 1.06 million trucks in 2026, including 700,000 units from domestic demand [11]. - The report highlights the low valuation and high dividend yield of the heavy-duty truck sector, suggesting a favorable risk-reward profile for investors, with specific recommendations for Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [11]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The 2026 policy will continue to support the replacement of old trucks, with subsidies for scrapping old vehicles ranging from 12,000 to 45,000 yuan per vehicle, and new purchases of National VI diesel and electric trucks receiving subsidies of 40,000 to 65,000 yuan and 70,000 to 95,000 yuan respectively [11]. - The expected replacement rate of 20% for old vehicles could lead to an increase of 94,000 to 96,000 heavy-duty truck sales in 2026 [11]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant trend towards higher battery capacities in new electric trucks, with 126 models exceeding 600 kWh, indicating a shift towards longer-distance applications [11]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks is projected to reach 30% in 2026, supported by differentiated subsidy policies [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability recovery in the heavy-duty truck sector due to prior investments in new energy by domestic companies, alongside favorable market conditions [11]. - The overall low valuation and high dividend yield of the sector provide a good safety margin for investors, making it an attractive investment opportunity [11].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "old for new" policy in 2026 aims to boost consumer spending, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, with significant financial support from the government [1][4][14]. Policy Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance announced a funding plan of 62.5 billion yuan to support the "old for new" policy, which includes subsidies for automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [1][4][15]. - The policy was officially launched on January 1, 2026, coinciding with the New Year holiday, to stimulate consumer demand [1][5][19]. Consumer Response - In Xi'an, most offline stores have begun to implement the new subsidy policy, offering around 1,000 yuan in subsidies for various products, including televisions and refrigerators [1][6][20]. - Data from Su Ning and other retailers indicate a significant increase in foot traffic and sales, with a 110% increase in customer visits and a substantial rise in sales of energy-efficient appliances [6][20][25]. Regional Impact - The "old for new" policy has been positively received in regions like Hebei, Henan, and Sichuan, where sales of home appliances and digital products surged, with Hebei reporting a 1.3-fold increase in sales compared to the previous year [7][8][22]. - The policy's effects are amplified by the holiday season, leading to increased consumer spending across various regions [8][22]. Subsidy Details - The 2026 policy features more precise coverage, focusing on automobiles, home appliances, and smart products, with specific subsidy amounts based on product categories [9][23]. - For automobiles, the subsidy for scrapping and replacing vehicles is capped at 20,000 yuan, with specific percentages for new energy and fuel vehicles [9][23]. Market Trends - The new policy is expected to accelerate the demand for high-efficiency and technologically advanced products in the home appliance and digital sectors, creating growth opportunities for manufacturers [10][24]. - The emphasis on energy efficiency and sustainability is likely to drive innovation and upgrades in the electronics and home appliance industries [11][25]. Regulatory Measures - The government has implemented strict measures to prevent fraud and ensure the proper distribution of subsidies, enhancing the policy's effectiveness and consumer trust [12][26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, which includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles. The policy is expected to significantly boost the sales of mid-to-high-end passenger cars [6][9][18]. - The report maintains a judgment of "price increase and stable volume" for domestic passenger car demand in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the industry despite potential market fluctuations [18]. Summary by Sections 1. 2026 Vehicle Replacement Policy - The policy supports scrapping and replacing personal vehicles with subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 CNY) for new energy vehicles and 10% (up to 15,000 CNY) for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [9][10]. - It also includes support for scrapping old commercial vehicles and promoting the electrification of city buses [9][10]. 2. Market Share Tracking in PHEV Segment - The report focuses on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as they adjust their market strategies and configurations [11]. - The analysis indicates significant variance in market shares due to increased supply and competitive strategies [11]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy aligns with expectations, and the report anticipates a rise in the proportion of mid-to-high-end passenger car sales due to the subsidy structure [18]. - The report reflects on the previous year's strategy of "emerging from deflation," which has proven to be correct, and emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes and strategic adjustments by leading companies [18]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain, including Geely, BYD, and others for potential growth [19]. - Specific companies are categorized into "right-side" and "left-side" targets based on their operational performance and market positioning [19].

Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the market this week, with a 1.9% increase, ranking 4th among Shenwan sub-industries, surpassing the CSI 300 by 1.8 percentage points [1] - Within the sub-sectors, automotive parts, commercial passenger vehicles, motorcycles and others, and commercial freight vehicles rose by 3.8%, 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively, while passenger vehicles and automotive services fell by 1.3% and 2.3% [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended core stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Berteli, Top Group, New Spring Co., Hu Guang Co., and Chunfeng Power [2][11] - For passenger vehicles, recommended stocks are Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, and BYD, with a focus on Jianghuai Automobile [5] - In the parts sector, recommendations include intelligent driving companies like Berteli, Horizon Robotics, and Kobot, as well as new force industry chains such as H chain (Xingyu Co., Hu Guang Co.) and T chain (Top Group, New Spring Co., Shuanghuan Transmission) [5][24] Robotics Sector - Huawei increased its investment in humanoid robots, with Dongguan Jimu Robotics Co., Ltd. raising its registered capital from 3.89 billion to 4.69 billion yuan, focusing on key technologies like machine vision and natural language processing [3][11] - The production progress and technological iteration of Tesla remain core themes, with domestic robot manufacturers like Yushut Technology expected to enter the IPO stage soon, potentially catalyzing the sector [3][11] Policy Impact on Demand - The new national subsidy policy for 2026 aims to stimulate domestic demand, transitioning from a fixed subsidy model to a flexible mechanism based on vehicle price [4][12] - The policy is expected to improve the structure of subsidized models, activating demand for mid-to-high-end vehicle replacements and reducing low-level price competition [4][18] Sales Performance - In December, BYD, Geely, and Changan ranked as the top three automakers by sales, with respective sales of 420,398, 255,000, and 236,817 units, showing a year-on-year change of -18.3%, +1.6%, and +12.7% [4][19] - New energy vehicle sales are projected to benefit from the new subsidy policy, with a focus on the sales targets set by Geely, Zero Run, and Xiaomi for 2026 [19][20] Motorcycle Market - The large-displacement motorcycle market is expanding rapidly, with sales of 250cc and above motorcycles reaching 61,000 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [31] - Recommended companies in this sector include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General, which are leading in the large-displacement motorcycle market [31][33] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The heavy truck market saw a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 46% in November, driven by the old-for-new subsidy policy that supports the replacement of older diesel trucks [34][36] - Recommended companies in this sector include Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [36] Tire Industry - The tire industry is experiencing a strong demand with high operating rates, particularly in the PCR segment, which stood at 72.05% [38] - Recommended companies include Sailun Tire and Senqilin, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing globalization and demand recovery [37][39]