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DRC对话丨张立群:加快巩固经济回升向好基础
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 06:01
Economic Overview - In April, China's major economic indicators showed stable and relatively fast growth, continuing a positive trend despite facing severe challenges from complex international environments and external shocks [2][3][4] - The overall economic recovery foundation remains unstable, necessitating increased counter-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies and expanded government investment in public goods to stimulate production and employment [2][3][4] Production and Supply - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.0%, indicating a relatively fast pace of growth [4][5] - However, both production and supply growth showed signs of slowing down compared to March, primarily due to a market condition of oversupply leading to declining prices, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 2.7% year-on-year [4][5][6] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand expanded steadily in April, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods [5][6] - The total import and export volume reached 38,391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, although export growth showed a significant decline compared to March [5][6] Investment Trends - Investment growth showed a slight decline, with cumulative year-on-year growth at 4%, and manufacturing investment growth at 8.8%, both lower than the previous quarter [5][6] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, indicating a worsening trend [5][6] Policy Recommendations - To effectively stimulate market confidence and unleash domestic demand potential, it is crucial to enhance the government's counter-cyclical policy measures and significantly increase public investment [6][7] - The focus should be on improving the quality of public goods and expanding investment to drive production, employment, and income growth, thereby activating the vast domestic demand market [6][7]
智库要论丨马海涛:以更加积极的财政政策应对外部不确定性
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 01:02
Group 1: Economic Environment and Challenges - The current international situation is evolving significantly, with increasing competition in technology and industry, leading to heightened external uncertainties [2] - Trade protectionism is on the rise, increasing export pressures on China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. such as machinery and electronics [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Risks - There are two major risks for China's manufacturing sector: decoupling and technology blockade, as developed countries attempt to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [4] - Developed countries are implementing strategies to attract low-end manufacturing away from China, while simultaneously restricting high-end manufacturing technology from leaving [4] Group 3: Financial Market Volatility - Global financial markets are experiencing increased volatility due to economic and political uncertainties, which may exacerbate capital flow fluctuations in China [5] - Financial sanctions and restrictions on capital markets are making it more difficult for Chinese companies to secure financing [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Response - A more proactive fiscal policy is deemed essential for enhancing the certainty of high-quality economic development in response to external shocks [6] - The Chinese government has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.5%, providing significant room for fiscal policy expansion compared to G20 and G7 countries [8] Group 5: Implementation of Fiscal Policies - The focus of fiscal policy should be on enhancing social welfare, promoting consumption, and increasing investment efficiency to stimulate domestic demand [9] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for effective macroeconomic management, ensuring that government investments lead to increased social investments [11]
天风证券:给予四方股份买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-24 09:30
天风证券(601162)股份有限公司孙潇雅近期对四方股份(601126)进行研究并发布了研究报告《主业稳健 增长,出海及AIDC有望形成增量》,给予四方股份买入评级。 四方股份 公司业绩持续稳健增长,25Q1利润增长有所加速 24年合计实现营收69.51亿元,yoy+20.86%;归母净利润7.16亿元,yoy+14.09%;扣非净利润6.98亿元, yoy+11.98%。毛利率32.33%,yoy-2.11pcts。净利率10.30%,yoy-0.62pcts。受益于国内新型电力系统及能源绿 色低碳转型的推动,公司持续加强产品和技术创新,营业收入稳步增长,综合毛利率总体保持稳定。 2025Q1营收18.28亿元,yoy+18.34%;归母净利润2.41亿元,yoy+33.38%;扣非净利润2.34亿元, yoy+30.37%。毛利率31.84%,yoy-2.12pcts;净利率13.21%,yoy+1.43pcts。 24年业务分拆: 1、电网自动化:24年实现收入33.09亿,yoy+13.18%,毛利率41.54%,同比下降0.35pcts。 2、电厂及工业自动化:24年实现收入31.22亿元,yoy+ ...
四方股份(601126):主业稳健增长,出海及AIDC有望形成增量
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-24 07:51
公司报告 | 年报点评报告 四方股份(601126) 证券研究报告 主业稳健增长,出海及 AIDC 有望形成增量 公司业绩持续稳健增长,25Q1 利润增长有所加速 24 年合计实现营收 69.51 亿元,yoy+20.86%;归母净利润 7.16 亿元, yoy+14.09%;扣非净利润 6.98 亿元,yoy+11.98%。毛利率 32.33%, yoy-2.11pcts。净利率 10.30%,yoy-0.62pcts。受益于国内新型电力系统及 能源绿色低碳转型的推动,公司持续加强产品和技术创新,营业收入稳步 增长,综合毛利率总体保持稳定。 2025Q1 营收 18.28 亿元,yoy+18.34%;归母净利润 2.41 亿元,yoy+33.38%; 扣非净利润 2.34 亿元,yoy+30.37%。毛利率 31.84%,yoy-2.12pcts;净利 率 13.21%,yoy+1.43pcts。 24 年业务分拆: 1、电网自动化:24 年实现收入 33.09 亿,yoy+13.18%,毛利率 41.54%, 同比下降 0.35pcts。 25 年展望:公司主业稳健发展,出海、数据中心有望形成增量 1)公 ...
迈向工业领域碳中和,零碳园区如何引领绿色低碳发展?
第一财经· 2025-05-23 11:51
国务院印发的《2030年前碳达峰行动方案》明确,要加大中央对地方推进碳达峰的支持力度,选择 100个具有典型代表性的城市和园区开展碳达峰试点建设。目前,零碳园区的建设发展正在提速。 2024年中央经济工作会议首次提出"建立一批零碳园区",2025年政府工作报告明确提出"建立一批零 碳园区、零碳工厂"。多部委密集出台政策,推动园区能源清洁化、产业绿色化、管理智慧化协同发 展。 全面提升零碳园区标准化水平、加快构建国际互认的评价体系,也成为目前行业内正在全力推进的重 要议题。此次《指南》的发布,是行业内各方携手合作、推进零碳园区标准化的重要标杆,未来还将 围绕不同领域和行业进行系列行动计划。活动现场,施耐德电气、上海交通大学环境社会治理研究 院、上海第一财经传媒有限公司携手共同启动了《零碳园区可持续影响力行业报告》(下称《报 告》)的编制工作,以及"零碳园区调研走访及高端沙龙"等系列行动计划。该行动计划将首先以"制 造业+泛建筑行业"案例调研为基础开展,旨在提供深入行业的实践经验参考。 在全球气候变化加剧与资源环境约束趋紧的背景下,构建零废零碳工业园区已成为实现"双碳"目标、 推动产业绿色低碳转型的关键路径。 5 ...
中国石化燃料油公司与BP新加坡私人有限公司签订新战略合作协议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-23 08:33
2025年5月19日至21日,BP新加坡私人有限公司(BP新加坡)和中国石化燃料油销售有限公司(简称: 燃料油公司)就未来战略合作举行研讨会,并签订新一轮战略合作协议。燃料油公司总经理房海峰和 BP新加坡总裁梁子建代表双方签约。 会上,双方回顾了多年来的合作历程以及双方合资公司取得的成就,共同参观了中国石化展示中心(上 海),相互分享了双方全球区域布局和网络发展方向,就未来十年更深更广的合作达成高度共识。燃料 油公司、BP新加坡股东双方代表、BP SINOPEC合资公司管理团队共20余人出席。 为巩固合作基础,积极应对当前全球船供油市场的激烈竞争,打造惠及双方的核心竞争力,BP新加坡 和燃料油公司充分发挥资源、技术、市场等方面的互补优势,借助BP SINOPEC合资公司成立十周年的 重要契机,签订新一轮战略合作协议,立足新发展阶段、贯彻新发展理念、构建新发展格局,推动双方 战略合作迈向新征程、实现新跨越。 未来,双方将围绕全球船供油业务,聚焦资源、仓储、物流、销售等核心领域,在数字化发展、低碳转 型等关键环节开展深入合作,积极应对复杂多变的国际竞争形势,充分挖掘产业链价值,发挥一体化优 势,打造持久核心竞争力 ...
世界燃气大会首次落地中国 聚焦市场绿色创新“三重奏”
"就像是给管网安装了'自动驾驶'系统,AI通过数据分析,能精准预测各因素对能源生产的影响,实现 能源生产的智能调度。"徐佳奇说,未来,平均年龄不到35岁的研发团队将朝着"黑屏调度"的目标继续 前进。 "您可以把名片留下以便后续交流合作。"北京北控北斗科技投资有限公司的展台上,用于收集参展观众 名片的亚克力盒子已经半满。 北控北斗燃气事业部副总经理方成告诉记者,在这届大会上首发的PPB级燃气管网泄漏高精准无人检测 车是全球第一部L4级别的无人驾驶自动巡检设备,能检出大气中十亿分之一的燃气泄漏。换句话说, 这辆搭载了高精度检测设备和北斗卫星导航系统的无人车在检测精度和无人驾驶技术上都实现了行业顶 尖。 实习生杨丽 中青报·中青网记者 张艺 参展企业达298家,参会企业近1500家,注册代表人数超3000人……第29届世界燃气大会于5月20日~23 日在北京开幕,这是大会自1931年举办以来首次落地中国,并选择中国首个全面实现清洁能源发电的城 市——北京。几天来参会人数创下新高,来自70多个国家的3万余名与会者聚焦全球能源格局、能源转 型、区域燃气发展等六大核心议题共探"赋能可持续未来"。 在全球能源格局深刻调整、 ...
2025年中国有机硅产业供给及格局概况,产能粗放式扩产周期步入尾声[图]
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang· 2025-05-23 01:42
内容概况:我国有机硅产业正处于高速扩张周期,受新能源、5G通信及智能汽车等战略性新兴产业需 求驱动,产能规模实现跃升,2024年有机硅中间体产能达344万吨,产量同步增长至225.3万吨,但产能 利用率受集中扩产影响小降,创2018年以来新低。行业呈现显著结构化调整特征,扩产主体向合盛硅 业、东岳硅材等龙头企业聚集依托新疆、内蒙古等区域能源成本优势形成煤电硅一体化产业集群。 2022-2024年为产能集中释放期,新增产能达72万吨/年,但2024年后增量显著放缓,标志着粗放式扩产 周期步入尾声。 关键词:有机硅 一、有机硅产业发展概述 有机硅,是指含有Si-C键、且至少有一个有机基是直接与硅原子相连的,习惯上也常把那些通过、硫、 氮等使有机基与硅原子相连接的化合物也当作有机硅化合物。其中,以(-Si-O-Si-)为骨架组成的,是 有机硅化合物中为数最多,研究最深、应用最广的一类,约占总用量的90%以上。有机硅产品的基本结 构单元是由硅-氧链节构成的,侧链则通过硅原子与其他各种有机基团相连。因此,在有机硅产品的结 构中既含有"有机基团",又含有"无机结构",这种特殊的组成和分子结构使它集有机物的特性与无机物 的 ...
燃气对话持续升温 第29届世界燃气大会拓展全球绿色共识
Group 1 - The 29th World Gas Conference highlighted the importance of natural gas as a key support for economic and social development, with China accounting for one-third of global natural gas consumption growth over the past decade [1] - China is committed to enhancing gas infrastructure, ensuring safety, and promoting intelligent transformation in the gas industry to improve operational efficiency and service quality [1] - The Asia-Pacific region is identified as the core engine for global natural gas demand growth, with expectations for natural gas consumption to peak around 2035 under the "dual carbon" goals [1] Group 2 - Qatar has significantly increased its position in the global natural gas market, particularly in LNG exports, and plans to expand its LNG production capacity from 77 million tons to 126 million tons [3] - Qatar emphasizes the foundational role of natural gas in the energy structure, despite the strong momentum of renewable energy, and aims to build a robust supply assurance system [3] - Qatar is actively expanding its downstream industry and enhancing global supply chain resilience through partnerships, including the delivery of 128 LNG carriers to China [3][4] Group 3 - Cheniere Energy has established stable partnerships with over 36 countries, achieving a daily transportation volume of two LNG vessels, and emphasizes the need for stable production capacity and flexible supply structures to meet diverse regional demands [5] - Hong Kong and China Gas has served over 43 million households and is advancing urban energy structure diversification through solar systems, green methanol, and waste management [6] - Nigeria is accelerating its "gas-driven development" strategy to address infrastructure and affordability challenges, aiming for a clean energy transition by 2030 [6]
国际燃气联盟主席接受《环球时报》专访:架起中外能源友谊桥梁
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-05-22 22:45
【环球时报报道 记者 邢晓婧 涂蕾】第29届世界燃气大会(WGC2025)于5月19日至23日在北京国家会 议中心举行。世界燃气大会是国际燃气联盟(IGU)旗下三大旗舰会议之一,每3年举办一届,被誉为 全球燃气行业的"奥林匹克大会",这也是世界燃气大会创办近百年来首次在中国举行。 国际燃气联盟主席李雅兰22日在接受《环球时报》记者独家专访时表示,本次大会是中国燃气企业集中 展示多年来发展成就的窗口,在中国和全球能源行业之间架起友谊的桥梁。鼓励中国广大能源企业"走 出去",投身国际市场,为全球能源行业发展注入动力。同时也吸引全球能源产业链的朋友们"走进 来",参与到中国经济发展的浪潮中。 李雅兰表示,世界燃气大会的成功举办对于举办国燃气行业的发展具有里程碑意义,是奠定国际行业地 位、彰显本国行业发展成就、扩大国际影响力、促进能源行业国际交流的重要舞台。 平衡 " 能源三角 " 之间关系 国际燃气联盟成立于1931年,是全球最大的燃气行业国际组织,涵盖燃气的上、中、下游全产业链,代 表全球90%以上的天然气市场,由来自全球80个国家的150多个成员组成。IGU章程规定,每3年从正式 成员中选举IGU主席,当选后任 ...