Group 1 - Cambodia successfully signed a trade agreement with the United States just before the expiration of Trump's tariff grace period, marking a significant economic move for the small nation [1][5] - The agreement is crucial for Cambodia, as the U.S. market accounts for 40% of its total exports, primarily in garments and footwear, making the potential 49% tariff pressure unbearable [5][8] - The deal requires Cambodia to enhance scrutiny over the origin of exported goods, which poses a challenge since 65% of its garment materials come from China, effectively limiting its supply chain options [7][8] Group 2 - On the same day, the Trump administration made concessions to China by lifting restrictions on exports of key technologies, including aircraft engines and chip design software, indicating a complex negotiation strategy [10][11] - The U.S. concessions appear to be a response to domestic pressures from energy and technology sectors, aiming to stabilize its own economic interests while managing trade relations with China [11][15] - The new tariff notifications sent to ten countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, signal a potential disruption in the global trade system, particularly affecting Southeast Asian nations [12][13] Group 3 - The European Union is preparing retaliatory measures against U.S. goods, which could lead to significant costs for European automotive manufacturers if negotiations fail [13] - China's response includes extending anti-dumping measures against the EU and accelerating the development of its domestic aircraft engine, indicating a strategic pivot in its trade approach [13][15] - The overall trade landscape is characterized by a lack of clear winners, as the intertwined global supply chains make it difficult for any party to emerge unscathed from the ongoing trade tensions [17]

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The core point of the recent US-China trade talks is the establishment of a "framework of measures" aimed at conditional cooperation, moving from sanctions to collaboration [1][2] - The trade discussions in London signify a shift in the underlying logic of US-China economic competition from traditional tariff wars to more complex issues involving supply chain and technology battles [1][2] - Trump's tariff war against China does not represent a broad consensus in the US, as it lacks political support and economic conditions [2][5] Group 2: Tariff Policies and Market Reactions - Trump's tariffs have faced significant opposition from various sectors, including consumers and financial elites, leading to a decline in market confidence [5][9] - The average tariff rate in the US has reached 18.8%, the highest since the 1930s, but the market currently believes it can absorb these costs without significant inflation [7][8] - The capital market's reaction to Trump's tariffs has been a major constraint on his policies, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a 19% drop from its peak [5][9] Group 3: Technology Export Controls - The true consensus in US policy towards China lies in technology export controls, which have become the main focus of US-China competition [11][12] - The Biden administration has maintained Trump's tariffs while shifting the focus to technology export restrictions, indicating a strategic decoupling in sensitive areas [11][12] - The US aims to limit China's development in strategic industries through various measures, including cutting off resources and technology [12][13] Group 4: China's Strategic Responses - In response to US technology export controls, China has implemented targeted measures, particularly in the rare earth sector, significantly reducing exports to the US [16][17] - China's dominance in the rare earth market, accounting for 70% of global production, gives it a strategic advantage in the ongoing trade conflict [16][17] - The recent framework agreement reflects a temporary arrangement where both countries are engaging in a supply chain balancing act, indicating a new era of economic competition [21][23] Group 5: Future Implications and Strategic Opportunities - The current geopolitical landscape presents China with a strategic opportunity to enhance its technological capabilities and self-sufficiency in critical areas [25][26] - The unpredictability of Trump's policies may create openings for China to negotiate and adjust its strategies effectively [24][25] - China's focus on technological innovation and resource management will be crucial in navigating the ongoing US-China competition [26]

7月4日，又一个东南亚国家和美国签订了关税协议。 这个国家就是东南亚小国柬埔寨！ 这又是一个"不平等协议"。 像前天我写文所说，"美国和越南的协议"可能会成为美国和东南亚国家签订协议的模板，这不，话音刚 落，两天内就应验了。 到目前为止，虽然距离7月9日仅剩4天，全球和美国签订关税协议的国家却寥寥无几，欧洲只有一个英 国，整个欧盟都还未妥协。 在亚洲，柬埔寨成为继越南之后的又一个和美国签订"不平等条约"的国家。这是东南亚和美国签订协议 的第二个国家，也是亚洲的第二个。 如果不出所料，柬埔寨签订协议的出发点应该和越南的出发点一样。 多话不说，我们先看几个数据。 2024年，柬埔寨出口美国的商品总额是262亿美元，这占据柬埔寨总出口额的40%。柬埔寨进口美国的 商品额是多少呢？3.216亿美元。柬埔寨对美国的贸易顺差额高达，259亿美元，出口美国的商品额是进 口美国商品额的80倍左右。 也就说，柬埔寨进口的美国商品额，和出口美国的商品额相比，几乎可以忽略不计。 参照美越关税协议，如果不出意外，美国对柬埔寨商品加征的关税会高于20%以上，而柬埔寨会对美国 商品采取零关税。 在今年的4月2日，美国提出对柬埔寨加征49 ...

一场牵动全球神经的税收博弈进入最后倒计时。当美国参议院以微弱优势通过30年来最大规模税改法案，全球资本市场屏息凝神——这场减税飓风， 将如何重塑世界经济版图？ 法案通过仅4票之差，折射出美国内部深刻的利益撕裂。表面是降低企业税率的"让利"，实则暗藏三重战略意图：吸引万亿美元海外资本回流，重塑美 国制造业筋骨；以"税收洼地"虹吸全球产业资本；迫使跨国企业在中美之间做出"二选一"的站队。这是一场精心设计的全球经济秩序洗牌。 国际税收战场的硝烟背后，是国运兴衰的世纪博弈。当崔天凯这样的国士再度出山，中国向世界传递的不仅是应对之策，更是一种战略定力——真正 的崛起，永远不寄希望于对手的仁慈，而在于锻造不可替代的竞争优势。 值此关键时刻，一位熟悉的身影悄然回归外交前线——72岁的资深外交家崔天凯。这位曾驻美八载、亲历中美风云变幻的老将，以中国政府中美经贸 中方牵头人身份重披战袍。其复出传递的深意远超人事变动本身，它代表着中国面对复杂博弈的终极底牌：以最顶级的战略智慧，打最硬的仗。 历史是最好的教科书。回望2018年美国上一轮税改冲击波，中国以增值税改革"组合拳"巧妙化解：制造业税率从17%降至13%，全年减税超万亿；研 ...

面对美国的这项威胁法案，中印两国反应截然不同。 印度外长苏杰生当地时间7月2日在美国华盛顿表态，称印度密切关注美国国会涉及该法案的动态，已向 格雷厄姆阐明印度在能源和安全领域的关切与利益，还表示"船到桥头自然直"。从这番表态能看出，印 度的态度尽显软弱。它一方面主动上门向美国议员解释自身对俄罗斯石油的依赖，幻想美国能理解并对 其网开一面；另一方面，在问题尚未解决时，寄希望于法案不会落实，或者觉得凭借与美国的关系，不 会被像对待中国那样严厉制裁。说到底，就是心存侥幸，想通过妥协求饶避免被制裁。 莫迪和印防长（资料图） 据参考消息网6月29日报道，美国共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆称，美国参议院将于7月开始审议对俄新 制裁法案，其中涉及对中印加税500%。消息一出，瞬间在国际社会掀起波澜。 提出这一法案的格雷厄姆可不是"无名之辈"，他以反俄言论广为人知，还被俄罗斯列入恐怖分子与极端 分子名单。早在今年4月，他就宣布了该法案，建议对从俄罗斯购买石油、天然气、石油产品及铀的国 家出口至美国的商品征收高达500%的关税。如今他宣称，法案已有82 - 84名参议员共同支持，具备强 大立法基础，并且特朗普已同意推进，预计7月7 ...

以下文章来源于定焦One ，作者定焦One团队 定焦One . 深度影响创新。 震荡蔓延：从消费者恐慌到行业洗牌。 文 ｜ 何欣欣 编辑 ｜ 金玙璠 来源｜ 定焦One（dingjiaoone） 封面来源 ｜ Pexels 席卷电宝行业的风暴，还在引发连锁震荡。 据界面新闻7月3日报道，多名罗马仕员工表示，自7月1日起，罗马仕内部已陆续通知员工全面停工停产，员工工资只发放到6月。尽管当晚罗马仕回应 称"公司没有倒闭"，但这场风波对其经营影响之深已不言自明。 这场行业危机，早已露出端倪。 导火索可以追溯到今年3月罗马仕充电宝在航班上起火；6月中旬，多所高校禁用罗马仕产品；紧接着，6月中旬以来， 罗 马仕宣布因"电芯缺陷在极端场景下可能过热燃烧"，召回三款型号充电宝，涉及49万台产品。随后，国家市场监管总局信息显示，罗马仕多款快充移动电 源的3C认证被"暂停"。 并非罗马仕一家公司中招。 6月25日， 另一头部品牌安克创新也宣布召回问题产品，矛头直指供应商的"电芯原材料未经批准变更"。据多家媒体报道及官 方信息，安克涉事电芯供应商指向安普瑞斯。 6月30日， 无锡市市场监督管理局回应，正对安普瑞斯（无锡）有限公司 ...

美国与欧盟，犹如高山上的两座望夫石，目光坚定地注视着彼此，而它们凝视的"夫"便是我国的稀土矿。为了获得这一宝贵资源，美国采取了层层手段，而 特朗普更是使出浑身解数，先是在汽车芯片领域对中国实施出口限制，紧接着，又以乙烷为突破口，制造更多压力。特朗普的意图不难理解，他是想先把底 牌积累足够，在与中国的谈判中能够充分利用这些筹码来威胁。 欧盟方面则采取了老套的策略："一哭二闹"。欧盟驻华大使一方面表示深深的恐惧，另一方面又开始哭诉，乞求中国能够理解欧洲各大企业的困难，尽快解 决稀土供应问题，以帮助欧盟度过眼前的困境。若不是冯德莱恩曾在G7峰会上对中国发表过过激言论，或许我们早已被这一场如同教科书般精湛的演技所 打动。 4 r 8 1 A the 21 = ALL PROFICE t B I 135 ANT 12 To 192 8 4.979 1 2 8 ? t I 1 - 419 W e A hire 0 无论是美国的强硬施压，还是欧盟的泪水与控诉，都未能改变中国对稀土资源的出口限制。就在这两方陷入僵局、彼此无计可施时，塞尔维亚总统武契奇却 送来了一剂"妙药"，不仅可能解决欧美国家的稀土短缺问题，还无意中揭示了一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dual nature of Trump's China policy, which combines aggressive tariff measures with friendly overtures, impacting Sino-U.S. relations and creating both challenges and opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Trump's imposition of tariffs, which reached as high as 145% on certain Chinese goods, is seen as a strategy to gain leverage in trade negotiations rather than a move towards decoupling [2][4]. - The large and complementary structure of Sino-U.S. trade means that tariffs could lead to significant economic repercussions if not managed properly, potentially accelerating decoupling in trade and technology [4]. Group 2: Diplomatic Strategy - Trump's foreign policy is characterized by a transactional approach, viewing international relations as negotiable and resolvable through pressure and dialogue [3][5]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with Trump's recognition of China's growing influence necessitating cooperation on various global issues [3]. Group 3: Opportunities Amidst Challenges - Despite the challenges posed by the tariff war, there are opportunities for stable economic relations if the situation is handled effectively, suggesting a potential for a new mutual restraint ecosystem in trade [4][5]. - Recent agreements, such as the U.S. lifting bans on Chinese chip design software and China speeding up rare earth export approvals, indicate a complex interdependence that could facilitate better trade relations [4].

Group 1 - The article highlights the expertise of Dr. Han Zhongxue, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Shenzhen University, focusing on macroeconomic policies and their implications for China's economic growth [2][3] - Dr. Han has conducted over 20 research projects at national and provincial levels and has published more than 30 academic papers, indicating a strong background in economic research [2] - The article outlines Dr. Han's extensive experience in both government and corporate sectors, which enhances his insights into economic policies and their practical applications [2] Group 2 - The article lists key topics covered in Dr. Han's lectures, including macroeconomic policy analysis, supply-side reforms, and the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on industrial layout [3] - It emphasizes the importance of financial system reforms in China, including the evolution of capital markets and local government financing platforms [3] - Public management topics discussed include game theory in public policy choices and the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on China [3]

Group 1 - The EU has set a 30-day deadline for China to address concerns over rare earth supply, indicating a significant misjudgment of China's industrial power [1] - The EU's perception of its own strength is flawed, as it continues to hold a condescending attitude towards China despite China's dominance in the global industrial landscape [1][5] - The EU's attempts to negotiate with both the US and China simultaneously may backfire due to overlapping industrial interests and the US's strategic maneuvers that undermine European manufacturing [5] Group 2 - The EU's "Net Zero Industry Act" aims to enhance its position in green technology but inadvertently highlights China's leading role in key technologies such as photovoltaics and energy storage [3] - China's response to EU tariffs on stainless steel products is a strategic move to protect its domestic industries from unfair competition, reinforcing the need for the EU to reassess its approach to cooperation with China [7] - The EU's failure to recognize the current geopolitical landscape, as evidenced by its actions at the G7 summit, further complicates its relationship with China [7]