证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*深度报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 投资策略研究 β隐匿下的"平衡木"策略——基于景气度线索以及行业趋势 从 2025Q1 数据看，全 A 营收增速延续回暖趋势，非金融石油石化板块同 比增速为 0.65%，较 2024Q4环比改善 1.3pct；分板块看，创业板以 2025Q1 同比 7.89%的营收增速领跑，北证营收增速环比跳升 8.08pct 至 5.81%，而 科创板受光伏行业拖累，2025Q1 营收同比下滑 7.24%，为 2022 年有数据以 来首次负增。盈利端改善更为明显，全 A 归母净利润同比增速由 2024Q4 的 -0.89%转正至 2025Q1 的 1.49%，其中创业板净利润同比激增 18.02%（较 2024Q4 环比改善 30.9pct），但科创板净利润同比跌幅扩大至-28.6%，反映 科技领域高研发投入与短期业绩的阶段性矛盾；主板则通过降本增效，销售 净利率从 2024Q4的 9.3%提升至 2025Q1的 9.38%，凸显传统行业经营韧性。 金融地产板块内部分化加剧：券商受益于资本市场改革深化，营收与净利润 分别同比增长 22.08%和 8 ...

建立一体化培训机制：通过"线上+线下"方式提升信贷人员合规与风险识别能力。线上依托"云端学 习"等平台，提供专业知识、合规操作和风险案例课程；线下定期组织"信贷知识培训班"，邀请讲师传 授经验，累计开展6场培训。 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点李可通讯员刘登胜谢记宽 近年来，郓城农商银行贯彻省联社"高质量发展"要求，将信贷管理作为经营发展重点，以"控风险、提 质效"为导向，通过"强化队伍建设、优化制度流程、深化督导考核"提升信贷资产质量，实现信贷管理 新突破。 强化素质提升，锻造专业团队 完善制度体系：修订《郓城农商银行贷后管理实施细则》，细化贷后检查流程，量化检查频次、内容及 操作要点，实现流程标准化、考核数据化。 实施"双人协同检查"机制：AB岗协同开展贷后检查，交叉验证信贷资金流向、借款人经营状况及担保 有效性，提升风险防控精准度。 贷后管理实行"双线并行"机制：贷后检查中心与支行"双线并行"开展贷后检查，加强对支行的监督，提 升贷后风险预警处置能力。 深化督导考核，激发内生动力 强化流程管控：针对部分客户经理贷后管理不到位问题开展专项检查，现场整改验收并通报责任人，推 动贷后管理责任落实。 推行信贷岗位持证上岗制 ...

Summary of Poly Property Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Poly Property - **Industry**: Property Management Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Non-owner value-added services are declining due to the real estate cycle, although engineering services are providing some offset, leading to an overall decrease in performance [2][3] - The third-party market expansion revenue growth is faster than internal projects, but the lower gross margin impacts overall profitability [2][3] - In the first five months of 2025, market expansion exceeded expectations with contract amounts increasing year-on-year, focusing on core cities and high-quality clients [2][4] Financial Performance - For the first five months of 2025, the company achieved expected revenue growth of approximately 5%, but profit faced pressure due to a reduction in non-owner value-added services and structural factors in basic property management [3] - The company aims for a total external expansion target of 3 billion yuan for the year, maintaining quality while ensuring good reputation in core cities [5][10] Revenue and Payment Collection - C-end payment pressure has increased since the second half of 2024, continuing into 2025, with a noticeable decline in C-end collection rates [7] - B-end and G-end collections are affected by seasonal factors and budget constraints, but the overall changes remain manageable as of May [7] - The company reported that property fee reductions have minimal impact, with less than 1% of projects experiencing price cuts, and the overall sentiment is stabilizing [8] Pricing and Service Quality - The proportion of price reduction projects in 2024 was low, primarily in second and third-tier cities, with adjustments made through negotiation rather than exiting the market [9] - Owners' demands focus on cost-effectiveness and service quality improvements, with a small percentage of projects experiencing price cuts [9][11] Profitability and Cost Management - Profitability is under pressure due to the decline in non-owner value-added services and slower-than-expected progress in new business lines [10] - The gross margin is facing pressure due to an increase in third-party project contributions, which typically have lower margins [13] - The company is implementing cost-reduction measures, including the use of AI and robotics to enhance operational efficiency [19] Dividend Policy - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 50% and aims to continue enhancing cash returns to investors, with future dividends to be determined based on year-end discussions and investor feedback [15][18] Technology and Innovation - The introduction of AI and robotics is expected to significantly improve operational efficiency in property management, with pilot projects already underway [19] Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on the long-term demand for quality services and living experiences, despite current market pressures [16][17] Additional Insights - The company is focusing on high-quality projects, such as large contracts with strong payment capabilities, to ensure both volume and quality in its market expansion [6][10]

摘要 大消费联合会议 20260629 老铺黄金积极拓展海外市场，首站选择新加坡，并计划进军日本、东南 亚及欧美等地。华人占比高、零售价与国内相近等因素，将支撑其在东 南亚市场的扩张，满足华人区及出境购物需求。 618 大促期间快递行业揽收和派送环比增速约 4%，周度件量近 41 亿件， 与去年同期相似，反映购物节拉长趋势。同比增速低于 15%，属正常现 象，预计未来两月行业增速维持在 10%-15%水平，受去年高基数影响。 京东物流承接京东外卖订单，短期内作为托底方，收入和成本同步增加， 对业绩影响可控。长期来看，旨在降本增效，提升人效，打造同城即时 配送能力，并为 KA 客户提供门店配送服务。 顺丰增发港股和发行可转债，旨在补足去年募资缺口，用于科技和国际 业务发展。短期内维持稳中有降的资本开支计划，优先实现国际业务减 亏，长期仍将国际业务视为第二增长曲线。 2025 年 5 月中国摩托车行业大排量内外销销量超 10 万台，同比增长 30%，前五个月累计 40 万台，同比增长 50%。出口量达 15 万台，同 比增长超 50%，主要由春风、隆鑫等头部企业驱动。 Q&A 老铺黄金近期新开门店的店效水平如何， ...

Group 1 - The core idea is that high-star hotels across China are increasingly adopting street vending as a response to declining business, particularly in the wake of restrictions on corporate dining and travel budgets [21][22][32] - In cities like Henan and Shaanxi, hotels have set up stalls outside their premises, offering affordable meals to attract customers who may not typically dine in hotels [3][4][15] - The trend has spread quickly, with hotels in various regions, including Zhejiang, joining in to sell popular local dishes at lower prices, appealing to cost-conscious consumers [10][12][13] Group 2 - The decline in business for high-star hotels is attributed to several factors, including a significant drop in corporate dining due to the "ban on alcohol" and changing travel policies from major companies [22][27][30] - Many hotels are adjusting their business models to focus on more affordable dining options, as traditional revenue streams from corporate events and high-end dining have diminished [29][33][39] - The shift towards street vending and casual dining reflects a broader trend of consumer behavior moving away from "face-saving" expenditures to more value-oriented choices [34][36][55] Group 3 - The adaptation of high-star hotels to street vending is seen as a necessary response to current market conditions, with many establishments realizing that they must innovate to survive [38][56] - The concept of "retailizing" hotel dining is emerging, where hotels are exploring ways to offer smaller, more affordable menu items to attract a wider customer base [46][52] - This shift may lead to a fundamental change in the business logic of high-star hotels, moving towards a dual approach of catering to both high-end and mass-market consumers [55]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the company Aerospace South Lake is optimistic about its military trade business and expects its share to increase in the future due to rising global military expenditures and strong demand for air defense radar [1] - The company is implementing cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures through low-cost design solutions, digitalization, supply chain management, and quality management to adapt to domestic market adjustments [1] - Radar maintenance and upgrades are identified as key areas for business expansion, with plans to enhance market development capabilities and optimize industry structure in fields such as radar assembly and special coatings [1] Group 2 - The company has a seasonal revenue recognition pattern, with a higher proportion of income confirmed in the fourth quarter, making it inappropriate to simply extrapolate semi-annual performance [1] - Currently, there are no clear plans for mergers, acquisitions, or asset injections, although the company is focused on promoting industrial layout and structural adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The company announced a voluntary share purchase plan by certain directors, senior management, and core employees, aiming to enhance quality, efficiency, and returns [1][2] - The total planned investment for the share purchase is no less than RMB 10.8 million, excluding transaction fees, with no set price range for the purchases [1] - As of June 27, 2025, a total of 1,269,500 shares have been purchased, amounting to RMB 6.9741 million, indicating that the plan is still ongoing [2] Group 2 - The share purchase includes contributions from key personnel, with the chairman acquiring 235,600 shares, representing 0.0118% of the total share capital [2] - Other notable purchases include 147,700 shares by the acting general manager and 107,600 shares by the financial officer, among others [2] - The company will continue to assess the implementation of the action plan and ensure compliance with relevant regulations during the share purchase process [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY25 results that met expectations, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by strong performance in sports products and stable demand in the intimate apparel segment [1][2]. Financial Performance - FY25 revenue increased by 11.7% to HKD 7.84 billion, while net profit rose by 28.4% to HKD 180 million [1]. - In 2HFY25, revenue grew by 11.2% to HKD 3.86 billion, and net profit surged by 219.6% to HKD 120 million [1]. - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.043 per share, resulting in a total payout ratio of 45.3% for FY25 [1]. Segment Performance - Revenue from intimate apparel and sports products grew by 3.0% and 26.9% to HKD 4.24 billion and HKD 2.93 billion, respectively [2]. - Sports apparel saw nearly 50% growth in functional clothing categories, with revenue exceeding HKD 1.1 billion [2]. - Revenue from consumer electronics accessories increased by 43.2% to HKD 410 million, while revenue from cups and other accessories declined by 15.0% to HKD 250 million due to the cessation of footwear operations [2]. - Victoria's Secret revenue in China rose by 4.4% to HKD 1.97 billion, with e-commerce sales growing at a double-digit rate [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 23.4% due to increased capacity utilization [3]. - Operating expenses remained stable, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios increasing slightly by 0.1 percentage points each [3]. - The company incurred HKD 220 million in additional operating expenses due to the relocation of its domestic production base [3]. - Overall, net profit margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.3% [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects high order visibility for 1HFY26, but the impact of U.S. tariff policies on consumer purchasing power remains uncertain for 2HFY26 [3]. - The intimate apparel segment is expected to remain stable, while sports products are anticipated to continue growing due to Bonding apparel [3]. - The company plans to implement cost-reduction measures, including decreased capital expenditures and debt management [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - FY26 earnings forecast has been revised down by 27.8% to HKD 220 million, with FY27 earnings projected at HKD 360 million [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12x for FY26 and 7x for FY27, maintaining an outperform rating [3]. - The target price has been reduced by 21% to HKD 2.38, indicating a potential upside of 13.3% from the current stock price [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth and efficiency of China's logistics sector, projecting a total social logistics volume exceeding 360 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest logistics market for nine consecutive years [1][5] - From January to April this year, the national social logistics total reached 115.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, showcasing the robust operation of the logistics chain [1] - The logistics infrastructure has expanded significantly, with over 1.31 million kilometers of railway and highway added from 2012 to 2024, equivalent to circling the Earth's equator over 32 times [3] Group 2 - The logistics costs per 100 yuan of GDP have decreased from 18 yuan to 14.1 yuan from 2012 to 2024, indicating improved efficiency and cost reduction in the logistics sector [5] - The comprehensive transportation network in China spans over 6 million kilometers, facilitating the efficient movement of goods across various modes of transport [3] - The shift in long-distance transportation of bulk goods and containers is increasingly moving from road to rail and water transport, with the China-Europe Railway Express connecting to 229 cities in 26 European countries and over 100 cities in 11 Asian countries [3]

Group 1 - The meeting focused on accelerating the reduction of logistics costs and increasing efficiency in Hainan Free Trade Port, emphasizing the importance of logistics system efficiency and cost for the competitiveness and attractiveness of the free trade port [1] - The meeting included discussions on key issues such as institutional mechanisms, infrastructure, transportation models, and smart logistics, with the aim of providing recommendations for the high-quality development of Hainan's logistics industry [1] - The meeting highlighted the need for the Provincial Political Consultative Conference to actively engage in research and provide suggestions to support the economic growth expectations and transportation infrastructure development [2] Group 2 - The meeting also reviewed personnel matters and included participation from various provincial leaders and members of the Provincial Political Consultative Conference [3]