Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing investment as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][5] - The new proposal highlights the integration of "investment in material" and "investment in people," aiming to enhance the quality of life and stimulate consumption [3][11] - The article discusses the shift in investment focus from physical infrastructure to human capital, indicating a strategic decision to prioritize investments that directly benefit people's lives [5][15] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that investment in people includes funding for education, healthcare, and elderly care, which are crucial for improving living standards [5][19] - The article provides examples of successful integration of investments in both material and human resources, such as the Shenzhen Guangming Cloud Valley project, which has attracted high-tech enterprises and created job opportunities [11][13] - It highlights the need for a long-term vision in investments, focusing on talent development and innovation as key areas for future growth [25][27] Group 3 - The article notes that the total fixed asset investment in China is projected to reach 52 trillion yuan, emphasizing the scale of investment compared to global standards [9] - It discusses the necessity of increasing residents' income to boost consumption, with specific goals set in the "14th Five-Year Plan" to align income growth with economic growth [19][21] - The article mentions that the government aims to direct more resources towards social welfare, with over 70% of fiscal spending in various regions allocated to the livelihood sector [21][23]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 29 年 月 日 宏观点评 中央经济工作会议前瞻 事件：按惯例，12 月上中旬将召开政治局会议、中央经济工作会议。 核心观点：12 月政治局会议一开完、2026 年政策大方向也就定了，随 后的中央经济工作会议据此进一步部署、篇幅也更长，我们预计：应会 突出"十五五"开局之年的重要性，2026 年政策总基调应会偏积极、 偏扩张、偏刺激，应会强调"做好经济工作意义重大"、GDP 目标可能 继续定为 5%左右，应会进一步突出强产业（科技&新质生产力）、扩内 需、中央加杠杆，应会进一步布局"十五五"，也应会进一步要求抓落 实、充分调动各方积极性；具体方向上，重点关注货币政策、财政政 策、科技自立自强、"两重"、"两新"、服务消费、提升居民消费率、稳 股市、稳楼市、"投资于人"、"中国人经济"等可能的新部署。继续提 示：大环境依旧是市场的好朋友，乐观点、乘势而上、调整就是机会。 1、12 月政治局会议历来是中央经济工作会议的吹风会，且大多间隔在 一周内，次年经济工作基调和总体部署也就此确定。节奏上，每年 4/7/10/12 月的季度政治局会议（10 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is accelerating its transformation and upgrading process, focusing on high-quality development and implementing a strategy to expand domestic demand, as emphasized in the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the government's work report [1][2]. Group 1: Investment in People - The concept of "investment in people" differs fundamentally from Western human capital theories, emphasizing a people-centered development approach that aims for comprehensive human development and social equity [2]. - The shift towards "investment in people" is essential for stimulating economic circulation, addressing the underlying issues of insufficient effective demand due to concerns over employment, housing, education, healthcare, and social security [2][3]. Group 2: Consumption and Public Services - China's consumption structure is transitioning from goods-focused to a balance of goods and services, indicating significant potential for domestic demand growth [3]. - Key areas for investment include childcare support and elderly care services, which can alleviate family financial burdens and stimulate related consumption, thus linking social welfare with consumption promotion [3][4]. - Enhancing public services and equalizing access can unlock consumption potential in urban and rural areas, particularly through increased investment in housing, education, and healthcare for migrant populations [3]. Group 3: Policy Coordination - A systematic approach is required to promote consumption and expand domestic demand, necessitating coordinated policies that prioritize public welfare and optimize fiscal spending [4]. - Financial support should be directed towards consumption infrastructure and services that directly benefit residents, ensuring a positive interaction between "investment in people" and "investment in things" [4]. - A sustainable and systematic view is essential to ensure that investments yield tangible benefits for people's livelihoods and stimulate consumption, creating a virtuous cycle of economic growth and improved public welfare [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in oneself as the best form of investment, especially in the context of modern societal challenges and technological advancements [7][9]. - It highlights the shift from external opportunities to internal development, suggesting that personal capabilities and virtues are fundamental to long-term success [9]. Group 1: Author's Background and Philosophy - Dr. Du Yu, the founder of Weikezhi, has a diverse background as a musician, writer, investor, and researcher, illustrating the concept of "investing in people" through his own experiences [4]. - His academic journey includes degrees from Wuhan University, Peking University, and the Chinese University of Hong Kong, culminating in a PhD from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, showcasing a commitment to continuous learning and self-investment [4]. Group 2: Integration of Traditional Wisdom - Dr. Du uses the "Huangdi Neijing" as an example to demonstrate that ancient texts encompass a wide range of knowledge, including music, geography, and psychology, which can provide holistic insights for modern challenges [6]. - He advocates for the integration of traditional wisdom into contemporary practices, arguing that ancient philosophies can help navigate the complexities of modern life [10][12]. Group 3: Practical Applications and Recommendations - The article suggests that individuals should focus on practical experiences and learn from those who have achieved tangible results, rather than solely relying on theoretical knowledge [12]. - Dr. Du encourages the reading of classical texts as a means to cultivate a stable mindset in the fast-paced AI era, positioning traditional wisdom as a "ballast" for the soul [12]. Group 4: Future Directions - Weikezhi aims to explore the intersection of artificial intelligence and humanistic values, promoting comprehensive personal development and providing practical solutions for growth [14]. - The organization is committed to disseminating Chinese traditional wisdom globally, enhancing cross-cultural exchanges and revitalizing ancient knowledge in modern contexts [12][14].

《民生大国：中国式现代化的大国策》迟福林 著中信出版集团 未来10年，我国将处于工业化后期的关键历史阶段，从生产大国、制造大国走向消费大国、民生大国， 这不仅是顺应世界现代化规律的重大选择，也是适应大国经济社会发展和14亿国人需求的重要举措。落 实"民生为大"，关键在于全面"投资于人"。 人力资本投资赋能投资效率 "投资于人"虽然是一种间接投入，但它是撬动投资效率的核心杠杆。当资本流向人的能力培养、潜能激 发与价值实现时，能激发出国人的潜能，创造出远超资金本身的乘数效应。在当下投资效率下降的特定 背景下，"投资于人"需要放在更加突出的位置。 迟福林 "投资于人"对提升投资效率、优化投资结构、发挥投资在推进经济转型升级过程中的关键作用具有重要 意义。现代经济增长中人力资本贡献率已超过物质资本。然而，与发达国家相比，我国劳动力平均受教 育年限较低；与一些新兴市场国家相比，我国劳动力平均受教育年限提升速度较慢。未来我国必须持续 提高劳动力素质，改善劳动力供给质量，推动技术进步，以人口高质量发展支撑经济高质量发展。 随着发展水平的提升，人力资本投资具有更高的效率和乘数效应。世界银行研究表明，劳动力受教育年 限每提升1 ...

Core Insights - The "2025 Guangzhou Investment Advisory Conference and Wealth Management Transformation Development Meeting" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on the evolution of wealth management and investment advisory services [1] - Yang Wenbin, Chairman of Haomai Wealth, emphasized the importance of a human-centric approach in investment advisory, contrasting it with asset management which focuses on assets [1][3] Group 1: Wealth Management Industry - Haomai Wealth currently manages approximately 180 billion yuan in client assets, with nearly 80 billion yuan from individual clients [1] - The core value of investment advisory lies in asset allocation, product selection, and behavioral coaching, highlighting the significant impact of client expectations on perceived returns [1] - The investment advisory profession is characterized by high barriers to entry, a long lifecycle, and the necessity for building trust over time with clients [1] Group 2: Industry Development and Challenges - Haomai Wealth is enhancing its governance mechanisms, strategic values, technological capabilities, product offerings, performance-based compensation, and training support to adapt to the wealth management 2.0 era [3] - There is a need for improved recognition of investment advisory services in China, with calls for unified legislation to address cross-industry regulatory challenges and promote the interconnectedness of financial products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines an optimistic economic outlook for 2026, emphasizing a proactive and expansionary policy stance to ensure a strong start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" with a GDP growth target around 5% [1][4][41] Policy Perspective - The main policy tone for 2026 is set to be positive and expansionary, with a focus on ensuring a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][4] - Key strategies include promoting domestic demand, stabilizing real estate, and planning new major infrastructure projects [1][5] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated in 2026 [2][12] - It is projected that there may be 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts of 50-100 basis points and 1-2 interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points [12][15] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is anticipated to be proactive and expansionary, with a projected fiscal deficit rate around 4% and special bonds reaching approximately 5 trillion [2][30] - The total fiscal expenditure is expected to reach 43 trillion, reflecting an increase of 1.13 trillion year-on-year [30][29] Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is likely to remain around 5%, with quarterly growth rates projected at 5.2%, 5.0%, 5.1%, and 4.9% respectively [4][41] - Inflation is expected to remain low, with a projected annual deflation index of around 0.1% [4] Investment Focus - The focus will be on expanding domestic demand, particularly through consumer spending, real estate stabilization, and infrastructure investment [5][29] - Specific measures to boost consumption include extending the "old-for-new" policy and enhancing service consumption [5][29] Structural Reforms - Structural reforms will continue to be emphasized, particularly in enhancing the quality of life and addressing demographic challenges [8][41] - The government aims to optimize the allocation of resources towards human investment and social welfare [8][29] Key Events Timeline - A series of important economic meetings and reports are scheduled throughout 2026, including the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People's Congress [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on "people" in China's economic development will be more pronounced in the next five years, focusing on improving living standards and addressing demographic changes [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights the need for a shift from a focus on material capital to investing in human capital, reflecting a deeper understanding of economic growth driven by human development [3][4]. - The concept of "investing in people" includes enhancing capabilities across all demographics and life stages, such as education, healthcare, and skills training [2][3]. Group 2: Investment in Human Capital - The government plans to increase fiscal spending on education, with an expected investment exceeding 25 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," marking a 38% increase from the previous period [3]. - The number of graduates in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics exceeds 5 million annually, positioning China as a leader in producing skilled professionals [3]. Group 3: Policy Implementation - The government aims to improve the structure of public investment, increasing the proportion allocated to social welfare and public services [5]. - Specific initiatives include the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which will allocate 150 billion yuan in 2024 to stimulate consumption in sectors like automotive and home appliances [6]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Growth - The focus on human capital is seen as essential for sustainable economic growth, with a call for reforms in local government performance metrics to prioritize consumer growth and public service levels over GDP alone [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and social welfare in China's economic growth strategy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a projected budget deficit rate of around 4.2% for 2026, focusing on enhancing living standards and consumption [4][6][10]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.2% to achieve a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, with a potential growth rate of 5.0% [4][6]. - The shift in macroeconomic policy since June 2025 indicates a stronger emphasis on domestic demand, particularly in the areas of social welfare and consumption [5][6]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Budget Allocation - The 2026 budget is expected to increase spending in social welfare areas by approximately 320 billion yuan, with a projected budget deficit of 6.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a 520 billion yuan increase from 2025 [11][10]. - In a more optimistic scenario, if child-rearing subsidies and pension standards are raised, the budget deficit could reach 6.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 960 billion yuan from 2025 [11]. Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - The government plans to enhance support for families with children through subsidies and free preschool education, with a budget of 1 trillion yuan for child-rearing subsidies and 500 billion yuan for expanding preschool education [7][8]. - For elderly care, the basic pension is expected to increase by at least 50 yuan, with additional subsidies for elderly care services projected to cost between 500 to 800 billion yuan [8]. Group 4: Consumer Spending and Service Sector Growth - The article highlights the need to boost service consumption, which is expected to grow significantly as the economy transitions, with service consumption growth outpacing overall retail sales growth [13][16]. - The government plans to issue consumption subsidies funded by special bonds, focusing on sectors like tourism, culture, and sports to stimulate consumer spending [16]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Effective Investment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for effective investment in urban renewal and public services, with a projected issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special bonds for urban renewal projects [18][19]. - The government aims to maintain a reasonable growth rate in investment while ensuring that it aligns with high-quality development goals [17][18]. Group 6: Debt Management and Financial Stability - The article discusses the continuation of policies to manage hidden debts and repay corporate debts, with a planned issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds [23][24]. - The overall fiscal deficit is projected to reach 13.18 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a slight increase from 2025, with a focus on maintaining financial stability while supporting growth [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing social security and public services to boost consumer confidence and spending in China, particularly in the context of achieving common prosperity and addressing income distribution reform [3][4][5]. Group 1: Social Security and Consumer Confidence - The experience of observing full restaurants in Australia led to the realization of the importance of a legally confirmed social security net, which enhances consumer confidence [3][20]. - There has been significant investment in basic social security in China, resulting in noticeable growth in guaranteed income, but further legal confirmation of social security is necessary to stabilize consumer expectations [3][20]. - The need for a robust social security system is highlighted as a foundation for increasing consumer spending and ensuring a sense of safety among the populace [9][20]. Group 2: Income Distribution Reform - The "two-fold doubling plan" proposed by the National Committee aims to double national income and the middle-income group, which is seen as crucial for achieving common prosperity [3][4]. - The article discusses the necessity of narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents, with recent improvements noted in rural income levels [16][17]. - Future reforms should focus on increasing the proportion of labor remuneration in national income, targeting a rise from 50% to 60% over the next decade [17]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Consumption - The article suggests that increasing the service consumption ratio from 46.1% to 60% could generate an additional 40 trillion yuan in consumer demand, indicating a significant opportunity for economic growth [8]. - The current economic model is criticized for being overly reliant on traditional investment, with a call for a shift towards a consumption-driven economy [9][10]. - The importance of investing in human capital, particularly in education, healthcare, and elder care, is emphasized as a means to stimulate service consumption and improve quality of life [11][12]. Group 4: Public Services and Urbanization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the equality of basic public services, which is essential for urbanization and addressing the needs of a growing population [4][19]. - The article stresses the need for a balanced approach to investment in both physical infrastructure and human services to meet the evolving demands of society [10][14]. - Achieving basic public service equality is seen as a long-term goal that requires sustained effort and legal frameworks to ensure fairness and security for all citizens [19][21].