Group 1 - Recent volatility in gold and silver prices has shocked many investors, particularly newcomers, with silver experiencing a drop of over 30% in a single day [1][8] - The current market behavior is characterized by a typical strategy of "killing both shorts and longs," indicating a potential short-term peak in prices due to technical features such as accelerated increases and high trading volumes [1][9] - Historically, after significant peaks, gold prices have often dropped by more than 50%, with prolonged periods of market stagnation lasting one to two decades [1][9] Group 2 - The recent decline in gold and silver prices coincided with the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman by Trump, raising questions about the potential impact on the dollar and its influence on future gold trends [3][11] - The issue of the dollar is macroeconomic, affecting not only gold but also all major commodities and financial markets, indicating a potential restructuring of underlying market logic [3][11] Group 3 - The first collapse of the dollar system occurred in 1971 with the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, which peaked at over $800 per ounce in 1980, a more than 20-fold increase from $35 per ounce before the collapse [4][12] - The establishment and subsequent collapse of the Bretton Woods system involved key historical milestones, including the Great Depression in 1929 and the establishment of the new dollar system in 1973 [6][12][13] - The dollar index, initially composed of ten currencies, has evolved, with the euro now representing 57.6% of the index, reflecting the new order of the Western financial system established post-Bretton Woods [7][13]

金、银贵金属市场的波动风险，正在迅速蔓延整个大宗商品市场。 2月2日，除了上周末大跌的黄金、白银以外，铜、铝、锌等基本金属与原油、燃料油等品种也出现大幅下跌。截至当日收盘，沪金2604合 约大跌15.73%，沪银、铂、钯、铜、铝等多达12个商品期货出现跌停。 如此大范围的集体跌停走势十分少见，而以上"国际定价"类商品的系统性回落，也显然受到了一些共性的影响。 其中最为明显的，当属近两日美元指数的短期上行。1月30日，凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席，其主张的"缩表+降息并行"颠覆了市 场对货币宽松的预期，使得美元指数阶段性止跌反弹，引发了包括贵金属、原油等大宗商品的剧烈波动。 不过，就国内期货市场而言，因为前期以黄金为代表的商品出现快速拉涨，整体风险相对可控。 仅以某头部期货公司为例，2月2日的金、银期货投机保证金比例已经上调至30%和32%，其他工业金属也增加至18%以上，多保持在相关 品种单日涨跌幅的2倍左右。 这意味着，即便出现类似于伦敦银单日下跌26%的极端行情，多头持仓的投资者也不至于出现"爆仓"。 "国际定价"品种领跌 这是一次以黄金、白银暴跌为开端，并逐步向工业金属、石油化工等领域蔓延的系统性 ...

•投资者们正等待美国非农就业数据，以获取有关美联储货币政策前景的新线索。 【华通白银网2月2日讯】•在上周五暴跌之后，白银难以重新获得上涨动力。 •由于凯文·沃什被提名为新任美联储主席以及获利了结，白银价格遭遇暴跌。 周五，美元吸引了大量买盘。此前，白宫提名前美联储主席凯文·沃什为现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的继任者。市场专家认为，沃什的当选不 会削弱美联储的独立性，这一点此前一直备受期待。此前，美国总统特朗普曾多次表示，新美联储主席将带来更多的降息举措。 美联储新任主席凯文·沃什素以支持强势美元著称，其在美联储任职期间的政策倾向意味着未来货币政策环境可能继续保持紧缩。 本周，投资者将重点关注美国1月份的非农就业数据（NFP），该数据将影响市场对美联储货币政策前景的预期。 白银价格目前在50日EMA上方，若出现回调，将在该动态支撑位附近获得初步买盘承接。相对强弱指标（RSI）低于50水平线，短期内 压制上行空间；若反弹突破该分界线则将增强上涨动能。若动量趋于稳定，多头或有望延续修复行情；反之，若未能实现重新加速，银 价将继续维持区间震荡。 白银本周亚洲交易时段谨慎交投于80美元附近，略高于上周五触及的四周新低73. ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 铂把数据日报 国贸期货研究院 贵金属与新能源研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 注:因收盘时间不一致,铂、兜库存及持仓数据部分滞后。 1月30日，铭、纽价格整体大幅下挫：PT2606合约收跌11.79%至630.55元/克:PD2606合约收跌11.87%至46405元/克。此外，上周五 夜盘,外盘铂把价格继续大幅下跌,伦敦现货锐金盘中暴跌超24%,终根收2180.8美元/盎司,目内跌16.72%;伦敦现货投盘盘中暴跌超 20%，终损收771.美元/盎司。日内映14.69%。宏观层面，特朗普提名近什出任新美联随主席，国其相较于其它候选人更加鹰派,市场普 遍预期其不会采取大规模范松货币政策，同时派什的提名也缓解了市场对美联情独立世丧失的担忧，提振美元指数、美债收益率大幅 走强,加上资金的大规模流出,贵金属市场出现恐慌性抛售并发生了"踩踏式"下跌，钳、史亦不例外跟随暴跌。基本面方面,暂未 有较大变化,美国决定督援对关键矿产加征进口关税,缓解的、把的关税风险,未来需关注组织库存是否流出,若确认,可能会对其 上行空间炮成压制。综上。基于 ...

美国经济数据呈现分化特征，消费端表现亮眼，12月零售销售环比增长0.8%，高于预期，印证消费韧性，为美联储维持当前利率水平提供支撑。 劳动力市场整体稳定，为美元筑牢底层经济支撑，而通胀及制造业景气度成为后续关注重点，2月3日公布的1月CPI数据将直接影响降息节奏预判。 主要货币对走势分化，进一步凸显汇市震荡格局。美元兑人民币运行平稳，2月2日银行间外汇市场人民币对美元中间价报6.9695，较前一交易日小幅下调17 个基点，即期汇率交投于6.9566附近，未出现大幅波动。 2026年2月2日，美元指数呈现震荡整理态势，受多重因素交织影响，短期缺乏明确单边走势方向，后续需重点关注通胀数据及主要央行政策信号，以预判走 势脉络。 美元兑日元受汇市协调预期及美国经济韧性支撑，在155-158区间宽幅波动，多空博弈激烈。美元兑欧元则受欧元区经济修复及欧央行决议预期影响，美欧 货币政策差博弈加剧，欧元兑美元维持在1.18上方震荡，对美元形成一定压制。 当前美元指数处于前期冲高回落后的均值回归阶段，最新收报97.140，日线布林带横向排布，短期围绕96.84-98.66区间震荡，多空动能均衡，暂无明确破位 迹象。 美联储政策 ...

上周五随着特朗普提名下一届美联储主席，作为一名资深鹰派官员，这一举动无疑是打了自己的脸，瞬间引爆市场，美元指数低位暴力反弹，金银高位走出 踩踏恐慌性出逃的大跌行情，周五当天暴跌近800美金，黄金三个交易日不到的时间从最高点5598一线跌到最低点4584一线，超过1000美金的跌幅刷新历 史，同时风险也是巨大，在此提示大家做好风控，不要做超出自己能力范畴的事情，操作上反弹承压不破找机会做空。对黄金感兴趣却无从下手或者操作不 理想的朋友可以与老许本人前来沟通交流。 黄金操作策略： 1、黄金反弹4765-88一线轻仓空，止损4835一线，目标4610-15一线，破位继续持有； 文/许安丰 从4小时行情走势来看，上方关注4785-4790一线短期压制，关注上方4868-4876一线重要压制情况，下方关注4600-4615一线关口支撑，重点关注新低突破情 况，大跌之后观望等待调整再操作，操作上稳健操作为主，具体操作策略我会在盘中提示，及时关注。 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 2 日 豆粕：盘面震荡 豆一：盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 1 月 30 日 CBOT 大豆日评：美元反弹导致大豆下跌。北京德润林 2026 年 1 月 31 日消息：周五，芝 加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，主要原因是美元指数反弹以及巴西大豆收割进度加快。周五 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4382 | -33（-0.75%） | 4388 -8（-0.18%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2767 -31 | （-1.11%） | -14（-0.50%） 2762 | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1064.25 | -8.0（-0.75%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 293.6 | -2.4（-0.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing a phase of recovery against major currencies, influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar index and marginal improvements in eurozone economic data, with upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decisions being a critical factor for the euro's mid-term direction [1] Economic Fundamentals - The eurozone economy is showing signs of overall recovery with internal differentiation, as evidenced by positive quarterly GDP growth and an increase in economic sentiment indices, particularly in manufacturing, services, and construction sectors [2] - The eurozone's composite PMI remains above the expansion threshold, although slightly below market expectations, with manufacturing PMI showing a minor recovery but still in contraction territory, while service sector expansion is slowing [2] - There is a divergence in performance among member states, with Germany's composite PMI showing stronger expansion compared to France, where the service sector PMI has fallen into contraction [2] Policy Impact - The ECB's monetary policy direction is a key variable affecting the euro's exchange rate, with market focus on the upcoming interest rate decision and the potential for a cautious policy signal to provide temporary support for the euro [3] - If the ECB signals a clear easing stance or lowers economic and inflation expectations, it could suppress the euro's upward potential [3] - A strong euro could negatively impact regional inflation levels and GDP growth, presenting a balancing challenge for the ECB between exchange rate and monetary policy [3] Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, the euro against the US dollar and other major currencies is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation, influenced by the ECB's decision and US economic data [3] - Mid-term uncertainties include the potential for increased economic divergence among core eurozone countries, the ECB's policy adjustments, and external factors such as global trade conditions and geopolitical issues impacting the euro's exchange rate [3] Market Implications - Stakeholders involved in euro-related trade and foreign exchange should closely monitor the ECB's interest rate decision and subsequent communications, as well as eurozone monthly inflation and PMI data, to effectively manage risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [4] - The short-term strong trend of the euro is unlikely to change, but post-policy implementation, the exchange rate is expected to choose a mid-term direction with potentially increased volatility [4]

图为截至1月30日三大人民币汇率指数。来源：中国外汇交易中心 国际方面：特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任下任美联储主席。该提名需参议院批准，但民主党领袖舒默与共 和党参议员蒂利斯已明确表示，除非撤销对鲍威尔的调查，否则将联手阻止沃什上任。 此外，美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%不变，结束自去年9月以来的连续三次降息。尽管符合市场预期，但政策声明透露出内 部意见分化：理事米兰和沃勒投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。 新华财经北京2月2日电中国外汇交易中心最新计算的2026年1月30日CFETS人民币汇率指数为96.99，按周跌1.25%；BIS货币篮子人民 币汇率指数报104.06，按周跌1.25%；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.52，按周跌0.77%。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜在第19届亚洲金融论坛上表示，中国人民银行持续推进内地与香港金融市场互联互通机制，全面覆盖债 券、股票、货币衍生品、黄金等多个子市场，有效支持全球投资者通过香港开展人民币投融资活动。邹澜表示，香港已成为全球最 大、最具影响力的人民币离岸业务枢纽。 近日，中国人民银行与斯里兰卡央行签署人民币清算安排合作备忘 ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a rebound, currently trading around 155.2600, with a daily increase of 0.36 and a percentage rise of 0.3166% [1] - The daily high and low for USD/JPY are 155.51 and 154.68, respectively, indicating a recovery from recent lows driven by a technical rebound after prior overselling [1] - The technical analysis shows that since the peak near 159, USD/JPY has been trading within the 152-156 range, with current support near the 200-day moving average around 151 [1] Group 2 - Market focus is on the Bank of Japan's policy dynamics, with the release of the January monetary policy meeting minutes expected to influence the yen's movement and the global currency market [1] - The USD index is reported at 97.154, maintaining a narrow trading range, which provides a relatively stable environment for USD/JPY fluctuations [2] - The interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, along with structural vulnerabilities in the USD's 200 billion carry trade positions, are limiting the medium-term upside for USD/JPY [2]