北京时间10月21日晚间 国际贵金属市场遭遇剧烈震荡 现货黄金价格单日暴跌5.3% 创下2020年8月以来最大跌幅 白银价格也同步下挫近7%。 今天 "金价银价急跌"话题冲上热搜 在社交媒体上，不少买入黄金的网友心态"崩"了。 这场突如其来的暴跌背后 隐藏着怎样的市场逻辑？ 未来走势如何？ 预计黄金跟白银，长线还是维持上涨态势，一方面是美元在市场上受到信任性的下滑，然后导致避险资金主要流向了黄金资产。另外一方面，是美联储降 息路径的确定性，使得流动性预期向好。白银，它的宏观面影响是跟黄金是类似的，但是白银本身也是一个工业金属，所以说它的基本面也会影响它的走 势，长期以来全球矿山资本支出的减少，使得白银产量在近几年并有并没有上升，而全球光伏产业的扩张，也使得白银的赤字也是愈发严重，进而推升了 白银价格。但是后续仍需要关注美国政府停摆终止的节点，也或许会造成白银跟黄金的一个小幅的回调，但长线仍然是看涨为主。 目前黄金价格的长期上涨趋势没有发生改变。这个阶段性的环境价格下跌主要是市场情绪方面影响，引发的技术性回调。市场风险点在于当下阶段黄金仍 处于绝对高位，投资者在做黄金投资时做好风险管理，避免因黄金的波动性风险造 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market has recently experienced a significant overall correction due to the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking sentiment at high levels and the weakening of market risk - aversion sentiment. The short - term trend of gold and silver is expected to be mainly wide - range fluctuations, with attention focused on the US CPI data released on Friday. The support for London gold is at the $4000 mark, but there is a need to guard against subsequent correction risks. The attention range for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11500 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 952.56 yuan/gram, down 41.5 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11404 yuan/kilogram, down 401 yuan. - The main contract open interest of Shanghai Gold is 192,803 lots, down 12,307 lots; that of Shanghai Silver is 386,233 lots, down 38,321 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract is 110,696 lots, down 9432 lots; that of Shanghai Silver is 97,632 lots, up 6359 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 87,015 kilograms, up 450 kilograms; that of silver is 691,688 kilograms, down 57,674 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 943.5 yuan/gram, down 49.4 yuan; the silver spot price is 11,303 yuan/kilogram, down 548 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 9.06 yuan/gram, down 7.9 yuan; that of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 101 yuan/kilogram, down 147 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 1058.66 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,676.64 tons, down 93.13 tons. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; that of silver is 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 28.14%, up 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.33%, up 0.5%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 34.39%, down 0.58%; that of at - the - money put options is 34.39%, down 0.59% [2] 3.5 Industry News - UK inflation "unexpectedly remained unchanged", leading the market to increase bets on interest - rate cuts. The September CPI year - on - year was 3.8%, the same as the previous month, lower than the expected 4.0%. - European leaders issued a joint statement supporting negotiations to promote a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and agreed with Trump's proposal of an immediate cease - fire and using the current contact line as the starting point for negotiations. - Recently, a large amount of silver has flowed from the US and China into the London spot market, alleviating the liquidity crunch in the world's largest over - the - counter precious metals trading center. The one - month silver lending rate in London has dropped from a record high of 35% on October 10th to 19%, confirming that the tight silver spot situation has been alleviated [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices has transformed them from safe-haven assets to risk assets, causing significant distress among investors [2][4]. Price Movements - On the 21st, international spot gold prices fell over 6%, dropping below $4,100 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline in 12 years [2]. - International spot silver prices experienced a decline of over 8%, falling below $48 per ounce, which is the largest single-day drop since 2021 [2]. - Domestic gold retailers adjusted their prices, with notable decreases: - Yayi Gold's price dropped by 83 yuan to 1,211 yuan per gram - Lao Miao Gold decreased by 61 yuan to 1,229 yuan per gram - Other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook saw a reduction of 57 yuan to 1,235 yuan per gram [2]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Various institutions have differing views on the future of gold prices: - Citibank has shifted to a bearish outlook, setting a short-term target price of $4,000 per ounce, anticipating a period of consolidation in the coming weeks [6]. - Bridgewater's Hudson Attar suggests that the likelihood of gold prices declining is greater than the potential for further increases [6]. - Tim Waterer believes that as long as the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data does not show unexpected increases, there is still upward potential for gold [6]. - HSBC forecasts that gold's upward momentum may continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of $5,000 [6].

编辑易向荃制作礼牧周 10月21日，美国华盛顿，特朗普在白宫为共和党参议员举行的午餐会上表示，在白宫修建宴会厅的噪 音"对我来说如同音乐"。 值班编辑王丹妮 20日特朗普宣布白宫豪华宴会厅已破土动工，东翼部分拆除工作已开始，包含第一夫人希拉里在内的民 主党人指责特朗普不尊重总统官邸。 经常有读者朋友错过推送 报道称新建宴会厅耗资约2.5亿美元，此次"破土动工"恰逢美国政府停摆，特朗普称该工程不花纳税人 的钱。 ...

10月21日，美国华盛顿，特朗普在白宫为共和党参议员举行的午餐会上表示，在白宫修建宴会厅的噪 音"对我来说如同音乐"。20日特朗普宣布白宫豪华宴会厅已破土动工，东翼部分拆除工作已开始，包含 第一夫人希拉里在内的民主党人指责特朗普不尊重总统官邸。报道称新建宴会厅耗资约2.5亿美元，此 次"破土动工"恰逢美国政府停摆，特朗普称该工程不花纳税人的钱。 ...

具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4354.42美元/盎司，先行录得日内高点4375.09美元，之后遇阻回落，一路 走低，延续到美盘22点半时段触及日内低点4082.92美元，就此触底回升后，又回撤保持低位震荡走 盘，最终收于4124.76美元，日振幅292.17美元，收跌229.66美元，跌幅5.27%。 上交易日周二(10月21日)：国际黄金巨幅回落走低，一度跌超6.3%，创2013年4月以来最大单日跌幅， 如期验证了上周说道的9转序列，后市短期即将迎来回调风险，也如期在触及上周给出的上升趋势压力 位置遇阻回撤。目前来看，多头动力减弱，在重回4300美元上方持稳前，偏向技术反弹遇阻回调的行情 为主。 展望今日周三(10月22日)：国际黄金开盘继续走低回落，延续昨日空头动力，一方面受到技术的进一步 抛压，另一方面市场对于中美贸易谈判以及美国政府停摆将结束的乐观预期利空压力，那么在停摆结束 落地之前，金价都将维持偏弱回落的走势为主。 等待风险偏好落地或降息预期升温，以及进入下个月时，再去又一次的长线看涨入场。 影响上，市场对于美国政府停摆将结束以及将达成贸易协议的预期，提振了美元，削弱了市场对黄金避 险资产的需求。使 ...

花旗称："我们预计布伦特原油在2026年第一季度的平均价格将在60美元/桶左右。" （文华综合） 10月21日（周二），花旗称短期内他们预计黄金价格（此前为看涨，但现在转为看跌），未来0-3个月 内的目标价将在每盎司4,000美元。 花旗表示，中期看多铜和铝，未来6-12个月铜价将达到1.2万美元/吨，铝价到2027年将达到3,500美元/ 吨。 花旗预计美国政府停摆的结束等因素，可能将在未来两到三周内推动黄金市场盘整。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Senate held its 11th vote on October 20, failing to pass a temporary funding bill for the federal government, resulting in a government shutdown that has lasted for 20 days [1] - Over 70% of approximately 1,400 employees at the National Nuclear Security Administration began unpaid leave, with only about 400 remaining on duty, impacting nuclear weapon production and contractor oversight [2] - Despite the government shutdown, construction has begun on a new luxurious "State Dining Room" at the White House, as per President Trump's directive [2][4] Group 1 - The construction of the new dining room is reported to cost $250 million, funded by Trump and unnamed donors, and is not expected to use taxpayer money [4][5] - The new dining room will be approximately 8,000 square feet, designed to accommodate up to 999 guests, expanding from an original plan for 650 [5] - The East Wing, which is undergoing demolition, has been part of the White House since 1902 and includes the First Lady's office and a small cinema [5] Group 2 - The construction work commenced on October 20, with visible demolition activities reported, including the removal of parts of the East Wing [4] - Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with hosting events in temporary tents on the South Lawn, emphasizing the need for a dedicated space for state visits and grand banquets [4][5] - The project has been described as a long-held dream of past presidents, aiming to enhance the White House's capacity for hosting significant events [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown due to significant disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties over key issues such as healthcare spending, leading to a halt in federal operations since October 1 [1] - The shutdown is negatively impacting various sectors, particularly tourism and small businesses, as government services are suspended [1] - Major tourist attractions, including museums in Washington D.C., have closed, resulting in a decline in visitors and affecting local businesses in the hospitality and transportation sectors [1] Group 2 - Public sentiment is increasingly negative regarding the political stalemate, with many Americans expressing frustration over the ongoing partisan conflicts and concerns about societal division [2][4] - Tourists have reported experiencing inconveniences due to the shutdown, highlighting the broader impact on ordinary citizens and visitors alike [8] - The National Park Service has closed many parks due to employee furloughs, and air travel has been disrupted, with over 5,800 flight delays reported in a single day due to air traffic control staff shortages [10] Group 3 - The economic impact of the shutdown is significant, with estimates indicating a weekly loss of approximately $10 billion to the tourism sector and $150 billion to the overall U.S. GDP [12] - Analysts warn that the initial losses may escalate if the shutdown continues, potentially undermining consumer and business confidence, and leading to broader economic disruptions [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound space of copper prices is limited. Overseas interest rate cuts in October are a foregone conclusion, and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts and the US government shutdown has led to a pessimistic market outlook, suppressing the upward space of copper prices. Fundamentally, there is high resistance to high prices in the domestic market, but the domestic copper export window is open, reducing the pressure of inventory accumulation. It is the peak consumption season in October, providing fundamental support. The previous copper futures price has broken through the long - term oscillation range, and the market is mainly strong. However, as the peak season ends, demand support will weaken, and the upward space is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, with a strong intraday oscillation [1][4]. - Spot: On October 21, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 55 yuan/ton, and in South China was 65 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 10,610 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 29 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply Side - As of October 15, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 40.8 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.08 cents/pound [8]. - Copper concentrate port inventory decreased this week, and is significantly lower than the same period last year. Smelters are still under maintenance, with low output levels. LME copper prices are rising, and smelters plan to ship copper spot to LME, which may further reduce the domestic circulation volume [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 37,700 tons, an increase of 1,383 tons from the previous period. As of October 20, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 108,700 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 137,200 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 346,600 short tons, an increase of 1,035 short tons from the previous period [11].