Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - China's economic growth slowed in September, with a widening gap between domestic and external demand. Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, while exports in September were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. Amid increasing external tariff pressure, China has introduced frequent growth - stabilizing policies [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea from October 28th to November 1st [2] - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown, as the market has not fully priced in the severity of the issue [3] - In the commodity market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach in the near term. Each commodity sector has its own characteristics and risks [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption." In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a new low for the year. External tariff pressure increased, and China introduced growth - stabilizing policies. The Third Quarter GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% for the first three quarters. Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, while social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3%. Fixed - asset investment continued to decline [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated. The delay in Sino - US tariff implementation will expire on November 10th. The US has taken a series of measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing tariffs on imports, and China has responded with counter - measures. There is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea [2] - The US government shutdown issue persists. The Republican temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate, and economic data releases have been delayed. The market has not fully priced in the severity of the shutdown [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints but is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose medium - term supply; the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals; precious metals have short - term price volatility risks but long - term buying opportunities [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing. The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged. China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and 4.8% in the third quarter. Social consumer goods retail总额 in September increased by 3% year - on - year. The national urban survey unemployment rate in September was 5.2%. The stock market showed mixed trends, with coal and gas sectors rising and precious metals sector falling. Sino - US officials agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon. The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses starting from November 1st. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached an agreement on coalition government [6]

第11次表决仍未通过！美政府"停摆"继续 多领域面临更多混乱 由于美国共和、民主两党在医保相关福利支出等核心议题上分歧巨大，国会参议院未能在9月30日上一 财年结束前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 分析认为，美国共和、民主两党在关键问题上互不妥协，加上两党都试图利用"停摆"服务各自政治目 的，政府"停摆"恐仍将持续，其多重负面影响也将加剧。 中新网10月21日电 综合报道，当地时间10月20日，美国参议院第11次就政府拨款法案进行投票表决， 仍未获得通过。分析称，随着美国政府"停摆"继续，其多重负面影响也将加剧。 图片来源：美国政治新闻网Politico报道截图 "停摆"继续：第11次表决仍未通过 据报道，当地时间10月20日，美国参议院第11次就政府拨款法案进行投票表决，仍未获得通过，因此美 国政府自10月1日开始的"停摆"继续。 该法案原计划将政府资金延长至11月21日，最终以50票赞成、43票反对未达通过所需的60票门槛。 更多混乱：美核安全管理局开始强制休假 目前，美国政府"停摆"已波及航空运输、公共服务、数据发布等多个领域，在影响民众日常生活的同时 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a market style shift, with a transition from "storytelling" to "performance" as liquidity tightens and investors focus on companies with high earnings visibility [6][7] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a tightening liquidity condition, with the Federal Reserve signaling the potential end of balance sheet reduction, which may lead to lower long-term interest rates benefiting gold and long bonds [7][9] - The report highlights the importance of cash flow stability and reasonable valuations in the current market, suggesting a preference for high-quality companies while avoiding high beta small-cap stocks [9][10] Market Performance Summary - The Nasdaq ETF (Invesco QQQ Trust) experienced a decline of 1.17% over one day and 2.34% over five days, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) saw a decrease of 0.10% and 1.18% respectively [4] - The Russell 3000 Index fell by 0.37% over one day and 1.41% over five days, indicating a general downturn in the broader market [4] - Gold prices increased by 1.33% over one day, reflecting its status as a safe-haven asset amid market volatility [4][9] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the VIX index, a measure of market volatility, rose by 6.40%, indicating increased market uncertainty [4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is reported at 4.0%, with a slight increase of 2 basis points, suggesting a stable interest rate environment [4] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) showed a slight decline, reflecting a potential weakening of the dollar in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties [4][9] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining positions in gold and high-quality long bonds as a hedge against market volatility, while favoring defensive equities with strong cash flows [9][10] - It suggests a tactical shift towards larger companies with solid earnings and avoiding small-cap stocks that exhibit high volatility [9][10] - The report emphasizes the need for investors to prepare for potential fluctuations in trade negotiations and Federal Reserve policies, advocating for a cautious approach in the current environment [9][10]

Group 1 - The report indicates that recent events suggest short-term volatility in the Hong Kong stock market may not have ended, but the long-term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - Economic data, US-China tariff news, US tech earnings, and the Fourth Plenary Session are expected to influence trading patterns and styles in the Hong Kong market [1][2] - The technology sector is facing increased volatility risks, with US tech earnings impacting the trading rhythm of Chinese tech stocks [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the US stock market showed resilience despite concerns over US-China tensions and credit worries, with the Nasdaq leading gains at 2.1% [1][4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance suggests a likelihood of maintaining the current policy path, with a potential rate cut in October being the optimal solution [1][5] - The report notes that the average win rate for October over the past decade is low, while the advantages of November and December are relatively prominent [1][23] Group 3 - The report discusses the ongoing US government shutdown, which has entered its third week, potentially exacerbating negative impacts on the economy [3] - Concerns over credit quality in regional banks have emerged, but these are viewed as isolated incidents rather than indicative of a broader liquidity crisis [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring US-China trade relations, as further escalation could negatively impact the US economy and inflation risks [3][4] Group 4 - The report notes that developed markets saw an increase of 1.4% while emerging markets declined by 0.3% during the week [4][12] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 8.0%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.0%, with public utilities leading sector gains [4][12] - The report highlights significant inflows into financials and non-essential consumer sectors, while the information technology sector experienced outflows [4][12] Group 5 - The report indicates that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $446.43 billion, with the US stock ETFs leading at $231.7 billion [7][49] - The technology sector was the top recipient of inflows among global stock ETFs, while the communication sector experienced the most significant outflows [7][51] - The report also notes that institutional investors marginally increased their holdings in gold, with significant inflows into major gold ETFs [6][54]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in gold prices has led major jewelry brands to announce price increases for their gold products, with some brands experiencing price hikes of up to 35% [2][6]. Group 1: Price Adjustments by Jewelry Brands - Chow Tai Fook plans to raise retail prices of gold products by 12% to 18% by the end of October due to the impact of rising gold prices on costs [1]. - Lao Pu Gold announced its third price adjustment of the year, with increases expected on October 26, following previous hikes of under 10% in February and 10% to 12% in August [1]. - Other brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Sheng are also set to increase their gold jewelry prices, with Chow Sang Sang's increase ranging from 25% to 35% and Chow Tai Sheng's expected to be around 15% [2]. Group 2: Consumer Experiences and Issues - Consumers have reported delays and cancellations in receiving their gold orders, with some experiencing significant price differences between the purchase price and current market prices [2][3]. - A consumer named Jia Jia faced issues with an order for a gold bar, where the seller canceled the order after the market price increased, leading to frustration over the lack of fulfillment [2]. - Another consumer, Mr. Zheng, had his order canceled unexpectedly while it was in transit, highlighting the challenges faced by buyers in the current market [3][4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The price of gold has surged significantly, with London gold prices surpassing $4,000 per ounce and reaching over $4,200 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 60% [6]. - Major investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with Bank of America predicting a target price of $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce [6]. - Analysts attribute the rising gold prices to factors such as increased demand for defensive assets amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes, as well as expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7].

豆粕：贸易事件不确定，低位震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（10.13-10.17），美豆期价涨势为主，因为中美贸易谈判希望、国内大豆压榨需求较好。从周 K 线角度，10 月 17 日当周，美豆主力 11 月合约周涨幅 1.39%，美豆粕主力 12 月合约周涨幅 1.96%。 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 上周（10.13-10.17），国内豆粕期价偏弱，豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面，盘面依然交易中美缓和、中 加缓和等。豆一方面，盘面偏强可能因为中美贸易摩擦担忧、国内政策支持预期。东北产区豆价也出现小 幅上涨，具有偏多影响。从周 K 线角度，10 月 17 日当周，豆粕主力 m2601 合约周跌幅 1.85%，豆一主力 a2511 合约周涨幅 2.03%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周（10.13-10.17），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）美国政府停摆持续，美国农业部相关报告 依然暂停发布，影响不大。美国政府维持停摆状态，美国农业部相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with the export window opening, and the strength analysis is neutral to weak [2] - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation continues, and galvanizing start - up rate rebounds [3] - Domestic supply - side pressure remains high. In October, domestic zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and the start - up rate will remain high. The traditional peak season in the consumption end is approaching the end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure this week [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 2,942.5, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - In terms of trading volume and open interest changes, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contract decreased compared with the previous week, while the open interest of LmeS - zinc3 increased [6] - In terms of inventory changes, SHFE zinc warehouse receipts, total inventory, and social inventory all increased, and LME zinc inventory also increased slightly [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at a high level, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a historical median level [10] 3.2.3 Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of zinc smelting has declined, and the start - up rate of downstream industries is at a historically low level [12] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc presents a C - structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import concentrate processing fees continue to rise, and domestic concentrate processing fees have decreased [39] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased but is at a historical high, smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historical high, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The start - up rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is provided, along with prices of some recycled zinc - related products and waste steel consumption data [50][51][52] 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly start - up rates have rebounded slightly and are mostly at historically low levels, and the real estate market is still at a low level while the power grid shows structural increments [56][58][71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, along with the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [73][74][75]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points, down 1.95%, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 3.04% to 12688.94 points [3] - The overall market saw 4781 stocks decline, marking the highest number of declining stocks in nearly a month, with a total trading volume of 1.95 trillion [3][4] - The current market sentiment is characterized by heightened risk aversion, attributed to escalating uncertainties in US-China trade relations, despite the absence of significant negative news [6] Sector Performance - All major sectors declined, but defensive sectors related to dividends, such as banking and agriculture, experienced smaller declines, with the Agricultural Bank of China rising 1.74% to a record high [6] - High-performing sectors earlier in the year, such as power equipment, electronics, and automotive, saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.99%, 4.10%, and 3.74% respectively [6] Policy and Earnings Outlook - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to bring a series of policy announcements, including the Fourth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will clarify policy directions for the following year [6] - Investment opportunities may arise from themes such as "de-involution" in new energy and semiconductors, unified markets in consumption and cycles, and marine economy [6] Bond Market - The bond market showed a continued upward trend, with all government bond futures contracts rising, particularly the 30-year contract which closed at 115.87, up 0.74% [12] - The central bank's operations indicate a relatively ample liquidity environment, with a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion from the market, yet overall funding remains sufficient [12] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued to show strength, with gold prices reaching a new high, peaking at 1001 CNY per gram, driven by risk aversion and policy expectations [12][10] - The energy sector faced downward pressure due to rising oil inventories and production levels, with the US EIA reporting an increase of 3.524 million barrels in crude oil inventories [11] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals driven by central bank purchases and anticipated Fed rate cuts, artificial intelligence due to increased capital expenditures by tech giants, and domestic chip production driven by technological breakthroughs [13] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from RMB appreciation and market style shifts, while brokerage firms may see increased activity due to active trading and potential changes in trading regulations [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The international spot gold price has reached a record high of over $4380 per ounce, driven by increased trade tensions, the US government shutdown, and dovish statements from Fed officials. The value of gold as a hedge has been further enhanced by geopolitical risks and the trend of central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization. The large capital inflow into the Shanghai gold futures contract indicates strong market sentiment [3]. - **Copper**: Demand is suppressing copper price increases, but rising expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, macro factors are the core drivers of aluminum prices. With the expansion of China's core CPI in September and expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the reduction of inventory, the Shanghai aluminum futures may show a slightly upward trend. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is declining. Cast aluminum alloy has strong support due to raw material shortages and policy factors [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of domestic and overseas zinc markets are different, with the domestic market showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support, and attention should be paid to the opening of export windows and potential macro - driven factors [63]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel ore in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is in a peak season, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are sluggish after the holiday, but export prospects are positive. Macro factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations should be monitored [77]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand. Supply is constrained by the delayed resumption of Burmese mines and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, while demand is divided between weak traditional electronics and strong high - end solder demand from AI servers and new energy vehicles. Low inventory supports prices, but high prices are suppressing trading [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which may support the futures price [106]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly, but inventory pressure limits the upside. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The international spot gold price has broken through $4380 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract has the largest capital inflow in the domestic commodity futures market [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Trade tensions, the US government shutdown, Fed officials' dovish statements, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are the main factors driving the rise in gold prices [3]. Copper - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 84,390 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.78%. London copper has a daily increase of 0.45% [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Demand restricts price increases, but interest rate cut expectations may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai aluminum futures main contract is 20,910 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Alumina futures main contract price is 2,800 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0.36% [39]. - **Market Outlook**: Macro factors drive short - term price trends. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai zinc futures main contract is 21,815 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. London zinc has a daily increase of 0.85% [64]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic and overseas zinc markets have different fundamentals, and low inventory provides short - term price support [63]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel futures main contract is 121,160 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0%. The stainless steel futures main contract price is 12,630 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0% [78]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is booming, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are slow, but export prospects are positive [77]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai tin futures main contract is 280,750 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.21%. London tin has a daily increase of 1.01% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand, and low inventory supports prices [91]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 75,700 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 760 yuan [107]. - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which may support the futures price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Data**: The latest price of industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,430 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 2.03%. Polysilicon and other product prices are also provided in the report [117]. - **Market Outlook**: As the dry season approaches, industrial silicon production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117].

Key Points - The gold market experienced significant volatility on October 17, driven by multiple factors including banking sector risks, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and ongoing U.S. government shutdown [1][2] - The surge in gold prices was primarily fueled by concerns over loan issues at two U.S. regional banks, leading to a market capitalization loss of over $100 billion for the largest U.S. banks in a single day [1] - The expectation of a potential 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by December has increased, making gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which could cost the economy up to $15 billion weekly, has further weakened confidence in the dollar and bolstered gold's appeal as a safe haven [1] Volatility Factors - After reaching a historical peak of $4,380 per ounce, profit-taking by some long positions and technical indicators showing overbought conditions led to a sharp decline in gold prices [2] - Risk warnings from the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange highlighted the overheated market sentiment, contributing to the sell-off [2] Current Trading Strategies - A breakout strategy suggests that if gold prices stabilize above $4,350 per ounce, traders may consider entering long positions with targets set between $4,380 and $4,400 per ounce, with strict stop-loss at $4,320 [3] - A pullback strategy indicates that if gold prices fall to the $4,280-$4,300 per ounce range and find support, traders could consider accumulating long positions, with a stop-loss set below $4,260 [3]