投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 30 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 重磅会议召开，国债期货震荡上涨 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡上涨。7 月以来，股市风险偏好上升，资金偏好 由债转股，股债跷跷板效应显现，加上外部风险因素趋于缓和，国债短线承 压。随着国债期货持续回调，国债收益率持续上升，触发政策利率的锚定效 应，国债期货继续下行的动能有所不足。今日召开的政治局会议再提落实落 细适度宽松的货币政策，这意味着未来货币环境仍偏宽松，国债期货中长期 向上的逻辑仍较为牢靠。短期内，宏观经济表现韧性，外部风险因素趋缓， 降息的必要性有所不足，国债上行的动能也有限。总的来说，短期内国债期 货震荡整理为主，上行与下行的空间均有限。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、 ...

21世纪经济报道记者王雪 实习生岑雨婷 武汉报道 7月29日，中国人民银行湖北省分行召开2025年第三季度例行新闻发布会。21世纪经济报道记者从会上 获悉，截至6月末，湖北省本外币存款余额突破10万亿元大关，同比增长9.3%，成为全国第10个存款余 额超10万亿元的省份。 "今年以来，全省金融部门积极响应国家适度宽松的货币政策导向，推动金融运行稳中有进、进中向 好，为全省经济高质量发展营造了良好的金融环境。"中国人民银行湖北省分行党委委员、副行长史长 俊表示。 数据显示，湖北省金融支持实体经济力度持续增强。截至6月末，全省社会融资规模余额达13.58万亿 元，同比增长9.6%，较全国平均水平高0.7个百分点；上半年社会融资规模增量8041亿元，同比多增 1274亿元。同期，全省本外币贷款余额达9.29万亿元，同比增长7.9%，较全国高1.1个百分点；上半年 新增贷款5808亿元，位居中部六省第二，同比多增1062亿元。 中国人民银行湖北省分行货币政策处处长鲍明星介绍，湖北省分行紧扣适度宽松的货币政策导向，从总 量、价格、结构三方面协同发力，推动一揽子货币政策措施落地见效，为湖北省"支点建设"提供坚实金 融支撑 ...

中经实习记者 孙汝祥 记者 夏欣 北京报道 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议。会议指出，要增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市 场回稳向好势头。 会议指出，要坚定不移深化改革。坚持以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，加快培育具有国际竞争力的新 兴支柱产业，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合发展。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞争秩 序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。规范地方招商引资行为。坚持"两 个毫不动摇"，激发各类经营主体活力。 会议强调，要扩大高水平对外开放，稳住外贸外资基本盘。帮助受冲击较大的外贸企业，强化融资支 持，促进内外贸一体化发展。优化出口退税政策，高水平建设自贸试验区等开放平台。 会议指出，要持续防范化解重点领域风险。落实好中央城市工作会议精神，高质量开展城市更新。积极 稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务，有力有序有效推进地方融资平台出清。增强国内资本 市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头。 （编辑：夏欣 审核：何莎莎 校对：张国刚） 会议指出，做好下半年经济工作，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和 适度宽松的货币政 ...

中共中央政治局：要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。 ...

今年以来，金融服务全区实体经济成效不断显现。 在助力"科技突围"和绿色发展方面，全区金融系统落实自治区"科技兴蒙"和"科技突围"工程要求，做实 做细科技领域融资对接、金融产品创新与推介等金融服务，用好科技创新和技术改造再贷款政策工具。 截至目前，全区14家金融机构获得此项再贷款政策资金20.8亿元，发放科技创新和技术改造贷款34.7亿 元，支持科技型中小企业38家、技术改造和设备更新项目26个。7月15日，伊利集团成功发行40亿元科 技创新债券，标志着内蒙古首单民营企业科创债成功落地。同时，内蒙古加大绿色信贷投放，为"降 碳""扩绿"提供金融支撑。截至目前，全区共有20家金融机构累计使用碳减排支持工具资金594.3亿元， 撬动发放碳减排贷款990.5亿元，带动碳减排量3597.5万吨。6月末，全区绿色贷款余额5594亿元，较年 初增加387.4亿元。 记者从7月29日内蒙古自治区人民政府新闻办公室组织召开的"2025年上半年全区金融运行情况及金融支 持自治区高质量发展情况新闻发布会"上获悉，上半年，全区金融运行总体平稳，金融服务效能持续增 强，为经济高质量发展营造了良好的货币金融环境。6月末，全区金融机构人民 ...

21世纪经济报道 记者杨希，实习生刘晴 2025年7月29日，中国人民银行北京市分行、国家外汇管理局北京市分局举行2025年第三季度新闻发布 会，重点围绕2025年上半年北京市金融统计数据、做好金融"五篇大文章"、经理国库40周年、推进跨境 贸易高水平开放试点等工作介绍政策落实情况和工作成效。人行北京市分行调查统计处副处长刘前进介 绍，上半年北京地区信贷总量平稳增长，信贷结构持续优化，实体经济融资成本低位下行，有力支持首 都经济高质量发展。 推进服务消费与养老再贷款政策落地是市场关注的热点话题。此次记者从发布会上了解到，今年5月， 人民银行设立服务消费与养老再贷款，以促进扩大服务消费供给、提振服务消费需求。人行北京市分行 信贷政策管理处副处长李媛在答问环节对记者表示，再贷款工具设立以来，该行多措并举指导金融机构 用好服务消费与养老再贷款。截至6月末，辖内银行发放符合政策支持的服务消费重点领域和养老产业 贷款80.4亿元，支持市场主体近3000户。 企业贷款加权平均利率同比下降40个基点 据介绍，今年以来，人行北京市分行坚决贯彻中央经济工作会议精神和《政府工作报告》部署，按照人 民银行总行各项工作要求，落实好适 ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The central bank has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and introducing a package of financial support measures, which have shown significant effects in supporting the real economy [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitoring the transmission and actual effects of previously implemented policies to better support domestic demand and stabilize social expectations [1][2] Liquidity Management - In the first half of the year, the central bank's liquidity management became more refined, with a net injection of 36,863 billion yuan through various tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [2][3] - The weighted average of overnight repo rates and pledged repo rates increased slightly, indicating a rise in the central tendency of funding rates [3] Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a total issuance of 27.1 trillion yuan in bonds, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with net financing reaching 10.5 trillion yuan, reflecting strong policy support [4] - The issuance of special bonds has increased, particularly in infrastructure investment, which is crucial for economic growth [4] Yield Curve and Interest Rates - The yield curve for government bonds flattened, with varying changes in yields across different maturities, indicating a complex market response [5][6] - The average issuance rate for corporate credit bonds decreased by 32 basis points year-on-year, contributing to lower financing costs for the real economy [4] Interest Rate Swaps - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward, with significant increases in swap prices for various maturities, reflecting market adjustments [7] - The trading volume of interest rate swaps increased, with a notable rise in daily average transactions, indicating heightened market activity [7]

Group 1 - Financial institutions are optimizing resource allocation and enhancing efficiency in serving the real economy, which is crucial for high-quality economic development [1] - In Tongren City, Guizhou Province, a local credit cooperative provided a 2 million yuan green finance loan to support the upgrade of new energy equipment in tea plantations [1] - Shengyuan Carpet Group in Xining, Qinghai Province, received 8 million yuan in fixed asset loans to introduce advanced intelligent production equipment, significantly improving production efficiency and product quality [2] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, China's social financing scale exceeded 430 trillion yuan, with new loans nearing 13 trillion yuan, creating a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [2] - The China Bank's Shaanxi branch introduced 16 measures to support technological innovation, including R&D loans and incubation loans, with R&D loans extending up to 10 years [2] - Financial support for key sectors such as advanced manufacturing, technological innovation, and private economy has seen rapid growth, with the establishment of government industry funds in Pinghu City to alleviate financing difficulties [3] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with the Ministry of Finance, allocated 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of old goods, promoting positive outcomes in the replacement of consumer goods [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% year-on-year, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances and automobiles, driven by the consumption stimulus [3] - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to enhance the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has been actively engaging in MLF operations to stabilize the market and ensure overall liquidity remains steady, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan in July, marking five consecutive months of net MLF injections [1][2][6]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - On July 25, the central bank conducted a 400 billion yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 100 billion yuan, aimed at releasing medium to long-term liquidity [1][2]. - The MLF balance reached 52.5 billion yuan following the operation, indicating a continued trend of moderate monetary policy [2]. - The central bank's actions reflect a precise adjustment strategy, balancing liquidity needs with market conditions, as evidenced by the lower net MLF injection in July compared to June [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - On July 24, the market experienced an unexpected tightening, with overnight rates rising above 1.65%, indicating increased demand for cross-month funds [1][3]. - Despite the tightening, rates for R001 and DR001 fell slightly on July 25, while 7-day rates continued to rise, suggesting ongoing pressure in the funding market [3]. - Experts believe that the month-end factors, including significant maturities of reverse repos and MLF, contributed to the market's volatility [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts anticipate that the cross-month funding situation will stabilize due to the central bank's supportive stance and the expected release of fiscal funds at month-end [7][8]. - The central bank is expected to maintain a steady liquidity supply, particularly during seasonal tightness, with a focus on optimizing structural efficiency rather than altering the overall liquidity strategy [8]. - The upcoming months may see increased government bond supply, which could heighten the demand for stable funding, prompting the central bank to utilize various tools to manage liquidity effectively [8].

作者：温彬 中国民生银行首席经济学家 7月24日，央行提前公告，25日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿元MLF操作， 期限为1年。因本月15日、25日分别有1000、2000亿元MLF到期，意味着7月MLF净投放达到1000亿 元，为连续第五个月加量续作。 结合买断式逆回购净投放情况，央行在7月中期流动性净投放规模达到3000亿元，继续展现适度宽松的 货币政策取向。 一、月末资金面扰动因素增多，MLF延续超额续作释放维稳信号 上周为应对7月大税期，央行加大逆回购续作规模，税期期间投放的逆回购在本周集中到期，规模超1.7 万亿元，同时还有2000亿元的MLF和1200亿元的2个月国库定存到期，公开市场合计到期规模达2万亿 元；此外，存单到期压力上升，本周到期规模升至1.1万亿元，叠加25日拆借7天资金可支持跨月，使得 本周资金面扰动加大。为此，MLF延续加量续作，稳定市场预期，确保资金面总体平稳。 二、MLF净投放总量适度，强化调控精准性、更好满足市场供需 3-7月，MLF净投放分别为630、5000、3750、1180、1000亿元，7月维持总量适度。一方面，为保持银 行体系流动性充裕， ...