Group 1 - The current trading price of silver TD is reported at 18,828 yuan per kilogram, down 16.11% from the opening price of 23,493 yuan per kilogram, with a daily high of 23,968 yuan and a low of 18,000 yuan, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has rescheduled the release of the January non-farm payroll report to February 11 and the January CPI report to February 13, following delays due to a government shutdown [1] - Investors are adjusting their expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with a shift towards a more cautious outlook on rapid rate reductions, as the new leadership may emphasize policy independence and inflation control [1] Group 2 - The silver TD market experienced a brief recovery from previous declines, but the current price shows a significant drop of over 14%, indicating a strong bearish trend [2] - Technical indicators such as the MACD and DMI suggest that the bearish momentum remains, with the price facing support levels between 20,500 and 21,500, and resistance levels between 23,500 and 24,500 [2]

据美国全国广播公司（NBC）报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间4日接受该媒体独家专访时表示，若候任 美联储主席凯文·沃什不支持降息，就不会得到这份工作。 报道说，被问及沃什是否明白特朗普希望他能降息，特朗普回答说，"我想他明白，但我觉得他无论如 何都想这么做。"特朗普补充说，"我是说，如果他进来就说，'我想提高它们（利率）'，他将不会得到 这份工作。不会。" 报道提到，特朗普还称美联储"理论上"是一个"独立机构"，但同时暗示美联储应听从他的领导，因为他 认为自己"几乎比任何人都更了解"经济。 凯文·沃什 资料图 图自外媒 特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事沃什出任下一任美联储主席。据英国《金融时报》报道，沃什的提名 将先由参议院银行委员会审议，之后诉诸参议院全院表决。2月3日，美国国会参议院银行委员会的全体 11名民主党人致信该委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特，要求推迟沃什的全部提名程序，直至针对现任主席鲍威 尔等美联储理事的刑事调查终止。多家媒体称，特朗普政府调查鲍威尔等人恐适得其反。《金融时报》 称，沃什本人属"主流"美联储主席候选人，与国会和华尔街均关系良好，这样的人选提名在参议院过关 受阻"凸显白宫对美联储和鲍威尔的攻 ...

2月5日(周四)亚市盘中，美元兑英镑窄幅震荡，英镑兑美元交投于1.3635附近，日内微跌0.11%，延续近 期区间博弈态势。今日核心焦点为英国央行利率决议，市场普遍预期该行维持3.75%基准利率不变，政 策声明及薪资相关表述将成为英镑走势的关键指引。 基本面来看，英国经济与通胀数据呈现矛盾态势，制约英央行政策走向。12月CPI同比上涨3.4%，虽略 超预期但整体呈回落趋势，预计今年4-5月接近2%的目标水平；就业市场疲软，失业率稳定在5.1%，私 营部门薪资增速降至3.6%的五年低点，却仍有薪资增长预期高于央行舒适区间的隐忧，加剧政策决策 难度。 英央行内部分歧明显，部分官员主张降息缓解就业压力，另一部分则担忧通胀粘性，此前12月降息决议 仅以5比4的微弱多数通过。机构对降息节奏预期分化，贝伦贝格预测4月启动降息，高盛预计3、6、9月 各降息一次，当前市场已完全计入7月降息25个基点的预期。 美英货币政策分化持续影响英镑走势，美联储鹰派信号推迟降息预期，支撑美元相对强势，间接压制英 镑；而英国私营部门商业活动改善、GDP小幅回升，为英镑提供一定支撑，双向制衡下英镑难以形成单 边趋势。 技术面而言，英镑兑美元围 ...

随着凯文·沃什被提名出任下一届美联储主席，"沃什时代"的货币政策走向成为全球市场焦点，市场此前对 降息的乐观预期正逐步降温。近日，又一位美联储高官公开释放鹰派信号，暗示不支持过早启动降息进 程，核心担忧在于当前通胀仍有粘性，过早宽松可能导致通胀反弹。这一表态进一步凸显，"沃什时代"的 降息之路注定困难重重，美联储在通胀与经济增长之间的平衡愈发艰难，市场多空博弈持续升温。 此外，政治压力与市场现实也构成双重制约。美国总统特朗普持续施压美联储，要求快速降息以提振经 济、助力选情，降低联邦政府债务利息支出，但沃什始终强调美联储的独立性，不愿因政治诉求牺牲通胀 控制目标。同时，当前美债规模高企，若贸然降息，可能削弱美元信用、引发资本外流，而缩表与降息的 并行，更可能加剧市场流动性波动，进一步增加降息的实操难度。 市场各方对"沃什时代"的降息前景分歧显著，中立呈现多元博弈态势。乐观派认为，随着通胀持续降温， 核心CPI逐步逼近目标，美联储内部分歧将逐步缓解，沃什可能调整政策节奏，在年内启动温和降息，以 应对经济增长压力；部分机构则预期，若就业市场出现恶化，降息窗口可能提前打开。 谨慎派则与发声高官观点一致，认为通胀粘性 ...

格隆汇2月5日｜美联储理事丽莎·库克周三表示，她更担心通胀降温方面的停滞不前，而不是劳动力市 场的疲软。这是一个非常明显的信号，表明在去年因关税而积累的价格压力开始消退之前，她不会支持 再次降息。库克在准备向迈阿密经济俱乐部发表的讲话中表示："目前，我认为风险倾向于更高的通 胀。"一周前，美联储决策者以10比2的投票结果决定将央行基准利率维持在目前的3.50%-3.75%区间， 并表示他们并不急于降低利率。库克是"支持者"之一。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

美联储理事丽萨·库克周三表示，相比劳动力市场疲软，她更担忧通胀进展陷入停滞，释放出暂不支持 再次降息的明确信号，称需等待去年关税积累的物价压力消退后，才会考虑调整政策方向。 自2002年履职以来，库克在所有参与的利率决策中均与美联储多数决策者保持一致。美国总统此前持续 敦促美联储加快降息节奏，去年曾以抵押贷款申请存在不实陈述为由试图将库克解职，相关案件目前正 在美国最高法院审理。特朗普已提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什在今年5月中旬鲍威尔任期结束后接替其职 位，部分原因是沃什支持其推动的降息举措。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 "目前，我认为风险倾向于通胀上升。"库克在准备向迈阿密经济俱乐部发表的讲话中表示。一周前，她 与多数美联储理事以10比2的投票结果决定维持政策利率稳定。美联储去年三次下调短期借贷成本，当 前政策利率区间为3.50%至3.75%。库克指出，此前的降息举措将持续为劳动力市场提供支撑，美国去 年12月失业率为4.4%，远低于2020年新冠疫情暴发前的50年平均水平6.2%。 但她强调，美联储设定的2%通胀目标尚未取得实质进展， ...

中信证券研报称，虽然沃什2025年多次提及降息+缩表的政策方向，但考虑到1月美国资金市场流动性 压力才明显有所缓解，当前准备金占GDP比重仍为10%左右，美联储持有资产占GDP比重为20%左右， 已接近疫情前2018年的水平，整体准备金充裕程度有限。若沃什担任下一任美联储主席，且若沃什上台 后快速启动缩表，届时美国资金市场或将再次面临流动性压力问题，因而整体而言，我们认为当前美国 金融市场环境不具备缩表的条件。 ...

即将离任的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔此前指责该项调查是对央行货币政策独立决策能力的"隐晦攻 击"。特朗普政府官员虽否认此意图，但总统本人近月来持续向鲍威尔施加降息压力。 值得注意的是，曾以"通胀鹰派"形象著称的前美联储理事沃什，近期已多次公开表态支持降息。此番提 名博弈不仅折射出白宫对货币政策的强势干预，也使美联储百年来的独立性传统面临严峻考验。有分析 人士指出，沃什若获提名，其亟需施展备受推崇的斡旋能力，在政治压力与央行专业判断之间寻求平 衡。 此外，美国财政部长贝森特周三在国会听证会上表示，总统有权对美联储的决策过程施加影响， 贝森特当天出席美国众议院金融服务委员会听证会。密苏里州民主党众议员Emanuel Cleaver询问他，是 否会建议总统"在言辞和政治层面干预"美联储的决策。贝森特回应称："这是他的权利……也是在座每 个人的权利。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普日前表示，若潜在提名人选凯文·沃什曾表态希望加息，他将不会 获得美联储主席的提名。 "如果他进来就说'我想加息'，那他绝对得不到这份工作，不可能。"特朗普在周三接受采访时如此表 态。 特朗普称美联储降息"几乎没有悬念"，理由是当前利率" ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan after 3.775 trillion yuan of reverse repos matured on February 4 [1] - From February 2 to February 4, the cumulative net withdrawal of liquidity through 7-day reverse repos amounted to 674.5 billion yuan, indicating a trend of liquidity tightening at the beginning of the month [1] - Analysts expect that as the Spring Festival approaches, the PBOC may shift to net liquidity injection through reverse repos and potentially utilize 14-day reverse repos to stabilize market liquidity fluctuations [1] Group 2 - In January, the PBOC reported a net liquidity injection of 700 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and a net injection of 100 billion yuan through government bond transactions, marking a significant increase compared to previous months [2] - The PBOC's approach to government bond transactions will be flexible, considering factors such as the need for base currency injection and market conditions, aiming to maintain ample liquidity for smooth government bond issuance [2] - The likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term has decreased due to the increased net liquidity injections through MLF and government bond operations [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's large-scale liquidity injection in January has reduced the urgency for a comprehensive RRR cut before the Spring Festival, indicating a shift towards a monitoring phase for monetary policy [3] - The continuation of MLF operations and the resumption of 3-month reverse repos are expected to stabilize the funding environment without necessitating an RRR cut in the short term [3] - Analysts predict that the probability of an RRR cut may increase in the second quarter of the year, particularly in light of anticipated government bond issuance pressures [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan after 3.775 trillion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - From February 2 to February 4, the cumulative net withdrawal of 7-day reverse repos by the PBOC amounted to 674.5 billion yuan, indicating a stable liquidity environment ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - Analysts expect that as the Spring Festival approaches, the PBOC may shift to net liquidity injection through reverse repos and potentially utilize 14-day reverse repos to mitigate liquidity fluctuations [1] Group 2 - In January, the PBOC reported a net liquidity injection of 700 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and a net injection of 100 billion yuan from government bond transactions, marking a significant increase compared to previous months [2] - The PBOC's approach to government bond transactions will be flexible, considering various factors to maintain ample liquidity and support the smooth issuance of government bonds [2] - The expectation for net bond purchases to gradually increase in February, with a projected net injection of around 100 billion yuan, reflects a cautious outlook on monetary policy [2] Group 3 - The large-scale liquidity injection by the PBOC in January reduces the urgency for a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut before the Spring Festival, indicating a shift to an observation period for monetary policy [3] - The continuation of MLF operations and the resumption of 3-month reverse repos in February are seen as alternatives to an RRR cut, further decreasing the likelihood of such measures in the short term [3] - Analysts predict that the window for potential interest rate cuts or RRR reductions may open in the second quarter of the year, particularly in light of government bond issuance pressures [3]