Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The remaining period of this year for crude oil is under pressure, and it should be treated with a weakening trend [1]. - Gold may experience high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and the downward space is limited in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are strengthening, and it is expected to have a short - term strong and volatile trend [3]. - Steel prices may have a narrow - range fluctuation after a partial rebound in the short - term [3]. - Coking coal futures are running near the upper edge of the oscillation range, and the actual impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on supply should be focused on [4]. - There is a local rebound expectation for hog prices, but there is still downward pressure in the short - term [4]. - Soybean No. 1 will have a high - level oscillation in the short - term, and Soybean No. 2 will have a strengthening and oscillating trend [5]. - Palm oil will have a bottom adjustment in the short - term [6]. - Rubber should be treated with a weakening and oscillating trend [6]. - PTA should be traded in the short - term as its fundamentals lack significant driving forces [6]. - Treasury bond futures have increasing positive factors and a medium - term oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. - Silver will have a short - term oscillation and a long - term strengthening trend [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weakening and oscillating trend [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to have a short - term oscillating trend [9]. - PVC is expected to have a short - term oscillating trend [10]. Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price for Asia in December. The export volume of some crude oils in November is expected to be slightly lower than that in October. The market is worried about oversupply, and European and American futures prices have fallen [1]. Gold - There are large differences within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates in December. The decline of US stocks and the risk - aversion sentiment are positive for precious metals [1]. Lithium Carbonate - The market supply and demand are booming. The total market inventory has decreased, and the sentiment in the mid - stream has improved. The latest quotation of Australian mines has strengthened again [3]. Rebar - This week, the supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, and the inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Most steel mills are in losses and are expected to increase maintenance and production reduction [3]. Coking Coal - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal has no obvious change recently. The upward driving force comes from anti - involution and the improvement of Sino - US trade relations. The multi - empty game in the market has intensified [4]. Hog - Hog prices are stable and strong in the north and weakly stable in the south. There is a local rebound expectation under the supply - demand game [4]. Soybean - Brazil's soybean exports in October increased significantly year - on - year. The purchase price of domestic new - season soybeans has increased, but the downstream demand suppresses the price to some extent [5]. Palm Oil - The production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 5 increased compared with the same period last month. There is an expectation of production reduction in November, and the domestic demand has been significantly boosted recently [6]. Rubber - The inventory has increased this week, and the overall raw material inventory is at a low level. The demand side lacks substantial positive factors, especially the decline of synthetic rubber prices [6]. PTA - The polyester start - up rate is stable. The domestic supply has increased, and the demand side is stable. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory accumulation [6]. Short - term Treasury Bond - The money market interest rates have mostly declined, and the central bank's open - market operations and short - term liquidity injection are positive for the bond market [7]. Silver - The US federal government shutdown has led to the suspension of official inflation data release, causing concerns among some Fed officials about the future monetary policy [7]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly [8]. Soda Ash - The production of soda ash has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up of float glass is relatively stable, and the inventory has decreased [9]. PVC - The start - up of domestic PVC production enterprises has increased, and the production is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory has increased [10].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," emphasizing a stable and continuous monetary policy framework that will guide financial market operations during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] Monetary Policy Framework - The "scientific and stable" monetary policy aims to balance short-term and long-term goals, economic growth and risk prevention, as well as internal and external factors [1] - The central bank's liquidity toolbox is well-stocked, with a reasonable distribution of terms, allowing for both short-term and long-term liquidity adjustments [2] Liquidity Tools and Mechanisms - The central bank has shifted its focus from quantity targets to interest rate levels, indicating a reduced emphasis on the monetary supply's direct control [2] - Different liquidity tools serve distinct purposes, with reserve requirement ratio (RRR) adjustments being used more cautiously compared to other tools [3] Interest Rate Mechanism - The central bank will adjust the timing of MLF operations to follow LPR announcements, reinforcing the significance of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as a policy interest rate [3] - The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is structured as "economic growth - policy interest rate - market interest rate," with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate becoming a key determinant for 10-year government bond yields [5] Economic Indicators and Policy Signals - Historical data shows that each round of RRR cuts corresponds with a decline in government bond yields, indicating that RRR adjustments signal policy easing [4] - The frequency of interest rate cuts is lower than that of RRR cuts, suggesting a more cautious approach by the central bank regarding interest rate adjustments [6]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to be range - bound between 7.1 and 7.15. In the short run, the strengthening of the US dollar is mainly due to the relatively weaker fundamentals and policy expectations of other major economies, giving the dollar a passive upward lift. If the relative differences narrow, the CNY has the potential to strengthen periodically. By the end of the year, if the Fed starts a substantial interest - rate cut cycle and domestic demand continues to recover, the CNY exchange - rate center may moderately rise to around 7.0. Exchange - rate policies will focus on stabilizing expectations and the pace. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term fluctuations of the US dollar and the corresponding increase in the CNY's volatility when the US government shutdown ends and a large amount of data is released [35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the CNY, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end [5]. - The policy counter - cyclical factor remains below 5%, and the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. 3.2 Fundamental and View 3.2.1 Macro - Economic Situation - **US**: There are differences in the pricing of interest - rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance increased to 905 billion on October 22, and the reserve balance of depository institutions decreased by 58.4 billion to 3.28 trillion. Fed Chairman Powell hinted in October that the Fed might stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. The US central bank cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% in October and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction program on December 1. The September CPI increase was lower than expected, supporting future interest - rate cuts. The economic outlook was revised upward, with a slight increase in the October PMI, but the improvement in real - estate sales in September did not continue. The ADP employment data changed to weekly, and the private - sector employment in the US showed a slight recovery, indicating that the labor market was still cooling down [16][18][19]. - **China**: There is a structural differentiation in the economy. September's imports and exports exceeded expectations, but there is still significant pressure on fixed - asset investment. Consumption has been boosted by holiday spending in the short term, but high - frequency consumption data shows an increase in volume but a decrease in price. Against the background of increasing pressure, the government has loosened its policy window, and the gap between the fundamentals and market sentiment has widened [20]. 3.2.2 Economic Data - **US October PMI**: The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7. New orders slightly rebounded to 49.4, production declined again to 48.2, employment contracted continuously at 46.0, and the payment price dropped to a record low for the year at 58.0, indicating weak demand, slow output, labor - force reduction, and easing cost pressure [22]. 3.2.3 Exchange - Rate Drivers - **Tight USD Liquidity**: The Fed's balance - sheet reduction has led to a near - zero RRP balance, reducing the excess US dollars in the market. The increase in the TGA balance has further drained liquidity. At the end of October, the SOFR jumped significantly, indicating tight short - term funds. Against the backdrop of liquidity contraction, risk appetite declined, and the demand for safe - haven assets pushed up the US dollar [28]. - **Drivers for the USD to Break Above 100**: The market lacks a clear direction, and momentum dominates. In the fourth quarter, there is insufficient data and policy guidance, and the upward movement of the US dollar is more driven by sentiment and positions. The upward movement of the US dollar in October mainly occurred during the transition period between the Asian - European trading sessions, with limited driving force during the US trading session. The weakening of the Japanese yen, British pound, and South Korean won has contributed more to the strength of the US dollar, which has a passive upward characteristic [31]. 3.3 Macro - Economic Scenario Analysis - There are important events such as the APEC meeting from October to November, the postponement of the expiration of Sino - US tariffs in November, the Politburo meeting and the FOMC meeting in December, and the Central Economic Work Conference. In 2026, there are events such as the expiration of the Fed's temporary governor's term in January, the government work report in February, and the National People's Congress in March. The inflation realization period, the turning point of the inventory cycle, the Fed's increased easing, and the restocking cycle are also important factors to consider. Risks include the US government shutdown, liquidity risks, and the impact of the de - stocking cycle and tariffs [37][38][39].

当地时间11月6日，美股三大指数集体收跌，纳指下跌445.81点，跌幅1.90%；标普500指数跌1.12%；道 指跌0.84%。 打开百度APP畅享高清图片 大型科技股普跌，特斯拉跌超3%，英特尔、亚马逊、Meta跌超2%，微软跌超1%，奈飞、苹果小幅下 跌；谷歌小幅上涨。其中，微软连续七个交易日下跌，创2022年以来最长连跌天数。Robinhood跌近 11%，创3月份以来最差单日表现。多邻国跌超25%，创该公司美国IPO以来最差单日表现，公司优先考 虑用户（基数）增长。 特斯拉股东批准马斯克的1万亿美元薪酬计划，超过75%的股东批准。特斯拉美股盘后一度拉升超3%。 美国中部时间11月6日（北京时间7日5时），特斯拉年度股东大会正式拉开帷幕。在大会前夕，马斯克 的1万亿美元薪酬计划遭遇了极大的阻力。挪威主权财富基金等多家机构投资者明确表示将投反对票。 | | 特斯拉 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | TSLA US 空 | | | | | | 445 910 '2 | 467.450 | | 昨收 462.070 量比 1.28 | | ...

来源：华尔街情报圈 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克直接说："通胀比劳动力市场更令人担忧，降息太快风险更大。" 全球职业介绍公司Challenger数据显示：10月份美国雇主宣布裁员153,074人，激增183%，创下22年来同 期裁员总数的最高纪录。 Revelio Labs数据显示（民间版非农）：原本9月新增6万就业岗位，现在被下修一半到3.3万；而10月的 数据更惨，直接变成-9100，创下今年第二差的表现，仅次于2025年最糟糕的一个月。 按常理，就业数据差，令降息预期升温，股市、黄金应该都涨——但实际情况完全相反。原因不止一 个。 第一，这次的"坏消息"，太"坏"了，不只是一般的"经济放缓"，而是带着"衰退味道"。投资者开始怀 疑，降息可能也救不了基本面（"降息"与"救市"不是一回事）——消息坏到影响心情，市场便将"坏消 息，解读为坏消息"。 第二，虽然市场略微上调了12月降息预期（概率升至70%），但这只是市场的定价，昨晚美联储的鹰派 程度反而是更为浓厚了。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，在通胀数据缺席的情况下对降息更感不安。 这让投资者意识到——美联储可能不会救场。于是市场就进入了最糟糕的组合——经济下行、 ...

但芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比则表达了对降息路径的担忧。他称，由于政府停摆导致官方通胀数据暂时缺 失，决策者可能无法及时发现物价风险，这让他对继续降息"愈发不安"。古尔斯比强调，在缺乏关键信 息的情况下采取宽松政策存在风险。 当前，美国劳动力市场虽有降温迹象，但仍处于"总体健康"区间。哈马克预计到2026年初，失业率仅会 略高于长期均衡水平，她认为这进一步说明当前应优先控制通胀，而非过度担忧就业。如不及时遏制通 胀，长期高物价可能固化在经济中，造成更大成本。 智通财经APP获悉，周四，美联储官员就货币政策前景发表多项讲话，就当前货币政策走向释放出不同 信号。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，当前通胀仍"过高"，并对经济构成的风险大于劳动力市场放缓。她强 调，货币政策应继续对通胀施压，并指出目前利率水平"几乎不具限制性"，暗示进一步降息可能过早。 哈马克预计，美国通胀最快也要在2026年之后一两年才能降至美联储2%的目标，这意味着美联储将连 续近十年未能实现物价稳定目标。她还透露，辖区内企业反馈成本压力正在回升，并计划陆续向消费者 转嫁价格。 与此同时，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表了相对鸽派的讲话。他表示，市场对"中性利率" ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has led to a pause in the release of official inflation data, raising concerns among some Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy direction [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed unease about continuing interest rate cuts due to the lack of key price data, stating that the Fed has less clarity on price trends compared to employment indicators during the government shutdown [1] - Goolsbee emphasized the need for caution among policymakers in the face of data shortages and reduced economic visibility, suggesting that they should slow down their decision-making process [1] Group 2 - Despite the temporary interruption of official labor data, a real-time unemployment rate indicator based on private sector data from the Chicago Fed shows an October unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, nearly unchanged from August's 4.35%, indicating that the labor market has not deteriorated further [2] - As the gap in inflation data widens and internal disagreements among officials increase, the market is beginning to bet that the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, particularly ahead of the next rate decision in December [2] - Goolsbee's recent comments indicate a strengthening of hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve, contrasting with the dovish perspective that has recently advocated for continued policy easing to support employment [2]

中国基金报记者 张舟 刚刚，英国央行利率决议揭晓！ 北京时间今晚8点，英国央行公布利率决议，决定维持基准利率在4%不变，符合市场预期。 【导读】英国央行如期按兵不动，维持基准利率在4%不变 在此前的8月7日，英国央行宣布将基准利率下调25个基点，从4.25%降至4%。本次英国央 行决定按兵不动，意味着暂停了自2024年8月以来每季度降息一次的节奏。 截至发稿，受英国央行利率决议结果影响，英镑兑美元短线下挫约30点，现报1.30606。 英国预算案不确定性 推动英国央行维持利率不变 根据英国央行公告，英国央行宣布将基准利率维持在4%，选择"按兵不动"。 英国央行表示，考虑到英国的总体通胀率仍然很高，由九人组成的货币政策委员会决定将基 准利率维持在4%。 不过，通胀加剧带来的风险不那么明显，需求疲软带来的风险则更为明显。英国经济活动低 于潜在水平，职位空缺减少，就业增长停滞。 未来利率可能"逐步下降"。 英国央行还上调了今年经济增速预期，同时下调了今年CPI预期。 通胀率方面，英国央行表示，当前通胀总体风险更加平稳，通胀率将于2026年初降至接近 3%，并在2027年第二季度达到2%的目标。基于市场利率的一年通胀 ...

Group 1 - The Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee indicated that labor market indicators show overall stability [1] - There is a belief that the labor market is experiencing slight cooling [1] - Concerns about interest rate cuts are heightened in the absence of inflation data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicates that the labor market remains generally stable, but shows signs of slight cooling. Concerns about interest rate cuts arise in the absence of inflation data, and the outlook on interest rates is not hawkish in the medium term [1] Group 1 - The labor market is described as overall stable, with slight cooling observed [1] - There is unease regarding interest rate cuts due to the lack of inflation data [1] - The medium-term outlook on interest rates is characterized as not hawkish [1]