[Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/8/13 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 農药 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 液化石油气 | 铝 | 合成橡胶 | | | | 原油 | 氧化铝 | 橡胶 | | | | 年 | 沥青 | 碳酸锂 | | | | 纯碱 | 燃油 | 焦炭 | | | | 甲醇 | 白糖 | 焦煤 | | | | 五债 | 烧碱 | 纸浆 | | | | 十债 | 棉纱 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 三十债 | 棉花 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 多晶硅 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 工业硅 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 尿素 | | | | | | 玻璃 | | | | | | 乙二醇 | | | | | | 锰硅 | | | | | | 硅铁 | | | | | | 王米 | | | | | | PTA | | | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | | | | 热轧卷板 | | | | | | 对二甲 ...

宏观经济点评 美联储 9 月或降息 25bp，但后续降息次数可能有限 ——美国 7 月 CPI 点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 2025 年 7 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，环比上 升 0.2%，同比增速不及市场预期；核心 CPI 同比上升 3.1%，环比上升 0.3%， 同比增速超市场预期。 通胀相对平稳，核心通胀略超预期，关税冲击正在体现 1. 总体通胀相对平稳，核心通胀同比增速超市场预期。美国 7 月 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，环比上升 0.2%，表现相对平稳；核心 CPI 同比上涨 3.1%，环比上升 0.3%，出现不同程度反弹。总的看，美国通胀总体未再回升，但核心通胀同比 增速较 6 月有一定反弹，且相对超市场预期，或显示关税对美国通胀的冲击正 在体现，且影响力度较大。往后看，由于 2024 年基数相对较低，通胀水平或将 继续反弹，需观察美 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（8月12日）触底反弹维持震荡，开盘价3349.37美元/盎司，最高价3359.25美元/盎司，最低价 3331.08美元/盎司，收盘价3349.80美元/盎司。 消息面： 周二公布的美国7月季调后CPI月率录得0.2%，符合市场预期，前值位0.3%；美国7月季调后核心CPI月率录得 0.3%，符合市场预期，前值位0.2%；美国7月未季调核心CPI年率录得3.1%，高于市场预期3.00%，前值位 2.9%；美国7月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，低于市场预期2.8%，前值为2.7%。 评论称，美国7月份消费者价格温和上涨，但由于进口关税导致商品成本上涨，导致一项衡量基础通胀的指标 创下六个月来的最大涨幅。CPI报告发布之际，人们越来越担心通胀和就业报告的质量。此前，美国政府削减 预算和人员编制，导致全国一些地区暂停了部分CPI篮子的数据收集。美国劳工统计局以"需要将调查工作量与 资源水平相匹配"为由，完全暂停了内布拉斯加州一个城市、犹他州和纽约州的消费者物价指数数据收集。此 外，美国劳工统计局还暂停了其他72个地区平均15%样本数据的收集。这导致用于计算CPI的价格数据和租金 数据暂时减 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuation of tariff suspensions between China and the U.S., alongside a rebound in U.S. core inflation [1][5][6] - The U.S. July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core inflation accelerated to 3.1% [1][5] - U.S. tariff revenue reached a record high in July at $28 billion, but this did not prevent the budget deficit from widening to $291 billion, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges for the federal government [1][5] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate supply is affected by mining permit delays, with Chile's lithium salt exports increasing by 40% month-on-month in July 2025 [2][23] - The weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, with an expected supply increase of 3% in August [2][23] - The short-term focus remains on inventory levels, particularly in overseas mines, with potential risks from supply-side fluctuations [2][23] Group 3 - The dual焦 (coke) market showed narrow fluctuations, with coal production decreasing, reflecting supply-side adjustments [3][24] - Despite expectations of production cuts in steel and coke plants, low steel inventory levels may support overall valuations [3][24] - The current macroeconomic policies are expected to provide support, but caution is advised regarding the impact of basis and price spreads on market movements [3][24] Group 4 - The soybean market is positively influenced by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's crop report, showing a good condition rating of 68% for soybeans [4][26] - The suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to improve the export outlook for U.S. soybeans, leading to a rebound in prices [4][26] - The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian canola seeds has led to an increase in canola meal prices [4][26] Group 5 - The international shipping index for Europe showed a decline, with Maersk's new pricing strategy impacting market rates [30] - The current shipping rates are under pressure, with expectations of further declines as other shipping companies may follow suit [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive performance of the US stock market, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, following the release of the July CPI data which was below expectations [1][9]. Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [3]. - Housing costs were the main driver of the CPI increase, rising by 0.2%, while food prices remained stable and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [4]. Labor Market Insights - The average real weekly earnings increased by 1.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in July, with the average hourly earnings rising by 1.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. The average weekly earnings reached $388.01, an increase of $5.51 compared to the previous year [5]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 6.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 93.4%. For October, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.4%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 37.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 59.9% [5]. Stock Market Performance - On August 12, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 483.52 points (1.10%), the Nasdaq up 296.50 points (1.39%), and the S&P 500 up 72.37 points (1.13%). Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached all-time highs [1][9]. - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with ON Semiconductor rising over 6%, Intel over 5%, and Meta approaching a market cap of $2 trillion [9]. Automotive Sector Developments - The prices of new cars remained unchanged due to tariffs, while used car and truck prices increased by 0.5%. Transportation and healthcare service prices both rose by 0.8% [4]. - Tesla's stock rose by 0.53%, with a notable increase in electric vehicle sales attributed to significant price cuts, coinciding with the expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credits [11].

新华财经悉尼8月12日电（记者李晓渝）澳大利亚储备银行（央行）12日宣布年内第三次降息，将基准 利率下调至3.6%，为2023年4月以后的最低水平，这符合市场普遍预期。同时，澳央行也下调了该国经 济增长预期。分析人士认为，澳央行年内可能在11月还有一次降息，并且可能在明年继续降息，以刺激 经济增长。 降息条件更充分 澳央行在今年2月和5月两次降息后，市场曾普遍认为第三次降息会发生在7月。但出乎意料的是，澳央 行在7月继续按兵不动，直到8月才第三次采取降息措施。这次降息时间延后的背后逻辑是，目前降息的 条件要比7月时更加充分。 7月货币政策会议前，澳大利亚统计局公布了5月通胀数据。这份数据显示5月澳大利亚的截尾均值通胀 率从4月的2.8%降至2.4%，达到2021年11月以后的最低水平。澳央行曾多次表示，其职责是要让通胀率 维持在2-3%这一目标区间以内，而其目标是让通胀率降至目标区间的中点位置附近并企稳。因此，5月 通胀数据其实已经对澳央行在7月采取降息措施的可能性形成了支撑。 不过，从结果来看，澳央行显然认为月度通胀数据并不能如季度数据一样作为衡量去通胀成效的关键指 标。澳央行行长米歇尔·布洛克在7月宣布维 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the release of the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI), with expectations of a slight inflation increase that is not expected to alter the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path in September [1][2]. Inflation Expectations - The consensus forecast for the July CPI indicates a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from June, and a year-over-year increase from 2.7% to 2.8%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, marking the highest level since February [2][3]. Institutional Forecasts - Various financial institutions have provided their forecasts for the July CPI, with the median forecast showing a month-over-month increase of 0.24% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8% for the headline CPI, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.31% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year [3]. Tariff Impact - The data will serve as a critical signal to assess the impact of new tariffs on consumer prices. Wells Fargo notes that the data will further validate the inflationary effects of tariff increases, although the distribution of the burden among consumers, domestic sellers, and foreign exporters remains unclear [5][6]. Employment and Rate Cut Expectations - Following a significant drop in non-farm employment data, analysts believe that as long as inflation does not exhibit extreme overheating, a rate cut in September is almost certain. The probability of a 25 basis point cut is currently estimated at 89% [7][17]. Market Reactions - Goldman Sachs suggests that as long as the core CPI does not exceed a month-over-month increase of 0.44%, the market will view tariffs as a short-term influence, limiting their impact on rate cut expectations [8][12]. Price Trends - Key price trends expected in the July CPI report include a 0.75% increase in used car prices, a 0.2% decrease in new car prices, a 2% increase in airfare prices, and a direct contribution of approximately 0.12 percentage points to the core inflation month-over-month increase from tariffs [11]. Future Inflation Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that excluding tariff impacts, underlying inflation trends will further decline, primarily driven by easing pressures from housing rents and the labor market. By December 2025, core CPI and core PCE year-over-year increases are expected to be 3.3%, dropping to 2.5% when excluding tariff effects [15]. Data Quality Concerns - There are concerns regarding the quality of data collection for the CPI, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended price collection in some cities, leading to a higher estimation ratio. This could result in greater volatility in monthly data and potential significant revisions [20][21]. Market Volatility - Following the CPI release, market volatility is expected to increase, with predictions of a 0.70% fluctuation, the highest since May of this year. The volatility index (VIX) is currently at a low level, indicating potential for significant market reactions [24].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - Overseas, the US will release inflation data, which may influence the Fed's decision on a September rate cut. The US dollar is strengthening, and global risk appetite has cooled. Domestically, China's July manufacturing PMI decreased, economic growth slowed, the trade deficit declined, and net exports' contribution to the economy weakened. However, China has introduced childcare subsidies, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended, boosting domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Macro - finance - Macroeconomic situation: Overseas, the focus is on US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. Domestically, economic growth has slowed, but policies are expected to boost consumption, and tariff risks have decreased. Stock index: Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds: Cautious observation is advised. Commodities: Different sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. 2. Stock Index - The domestic stock market has risen, driven by sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and components. The economic growth has slowed, but policies and trade negotiations are expected to boost the market. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices declined on Monday. The market is concerned about US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. The long - term view on gold is bullish, and long - term positions can be considered if it retraces to support levels [5]. 4. Black Metals - **Steel**: Prices rebounded on Monday. The market is still dominated by macro logic, and prices are expected to be oscillate strongly in the short term. Demand is weak, and inventory is rising, but supply is also high due to high profits [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices strengthened on Monday but were weaker than other black metals. Demand may weaken further due to production restrictions, and supply has decreased. Short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat on Monday. Demand is fair, and production in some regions is expected to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. 5. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high, suppressing prices. The upside is limited [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply may decrease due to policies, demand has slightly improved, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's dovish stance is strengthening, and risk appetite has recovered. However, copper inventory is high, and terminal demand may weaken [11]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price rose slightly on Monday. Fundamentals have weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Tin**: Supply has slightly increased, and terminal demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and the upside is restricted [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Multiple contracts hit the daily limit on Monday. Supply has decreased, and the market is bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the mine - type change of remaining mines [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost and sentiment factors [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract rose on Monday. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with support from spot prices and expectations [15]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is waiting for details of the US - Russia summit. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as Russian oil supply is not expected to be interrupted [16]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are low and stable, and asphalt prices have slightly recovered. The demand is weak, and the inventory is difficult to reduce, so it is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: Prices have declined slightly. The supply is tight, and it is expected to oscillate while waiting for PTA device changes [16]. - **PTA**: The basis has recovered slightly, and supply and demand are expected to balance in August. It is expected to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has increased, and supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in the short term. It is expected to oscillate, with limited upside [17]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices have declined. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has increased slightly. Medium - term short positions can be considered [18]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased, and demand varies by region. It is expected to oscillate, with limited spread movement [18]. - **PP**: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [18]. 8. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Trump's call for China to increase soybean purchases has led to a price increase. The crop condition is good, but new sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [19]. - **Soybean Meal/Canola Meal**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and spot prices are weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton [20]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the supply is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage opportunities can be considered. Rapeseed oil inventory has slightly decreased [20]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventory have increased, and exports are weak. Domestic import profits are inverted, and inventory is increasing [20]. - **Corn**: Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and spot prices are stable. The basis is favorable, which stabilizes the futures price [21][22]. - **Pigs**: After price declines, farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn, and pig prices may stabilize [22].

1. 通胀黏性比想象中更顽固 明晚公布的7月CPI，市场预期同比涨2.8%，但核心CPI可能窜到3.1%，远高于美联储2%的目标红线。更要命的是：关税正在疯狂推高物价！6月数据已显 示玩具、家具价格暴涨，企业成本转嫁率飙到70%。若7月再超预期，9月降息美梦直接碎成渣。 老铁们，今晚美股这出戏够刺激！道指哐当砸下200点，纳指盘中创新高却尾盘跳水，标普也蔫了。表面看是技术调整，但帮主20年财经老炮的鼻子早嗅 到火药味——市场正为明天的CPI数据提前"缴械投降"！三个扎心真相，咱必须连夜扒透。 一、91%基金经理亮红灯：美股盛宴吃到"撑吐" • 新高与暴跌的诡异共存：纳指白天刚冲上21549点历史巅峰，尾盘却转跌0.3%。这哪是正常回调？分明是多头在CPI审判前集体跑路！美银最新调查更是 吓人：91%的基金经理高喊美股"太贵"，这比例创下2001年以来最高纪录。泡沫警报响彻华尔街，大资金已脚底抹油。 • 流动性暗战升级：别看成交额飙到1.8万亿美元，里头藏着量化基金的"对倒游戏"——上午拉锂矿、下午炒军工，尾盘再砸科技股。散户追涨杀跌？妥妥 被当韭菜割。 二、CPI数据=美联储的"生死判书" 三、两大爆雷点正在 ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 200.52 points (0.45%) to close at 43,975.09 points, the Nasdaq down by 64.62 points (0.30%) at 21,385.40 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 16.00 points (0.25%) to 6,373.45 points [1] - Large-cap tech stocks mostly declined, with Apple down 0.83%, Amazon down 0.62%, Facebook down 0.45%, Nvidia down 0.3%, Google down 0.21%, and Microsoft down 0.02% [3][4] Notable Stock Movements - Tesla saw an increase of nearly 3%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains [3] - Fannie Mae rose over 15% and Freddie Mac increased by more than 13%, both reaching their highest closing levels since 2008 [3] Sector Performance - Bank stocks showed mixed results, with Morgan Stanley up 0.53%, Bank of America up 0.38%, and JPMorgan up 0.32%. Conversely, Citigroup fell by 0.44%, Goldman Sachs down 0.24%, and Wells Fargo down 0.31% [5] - Gold stocks generally declined, with Harmony Gold, Eldorado Gold, and AngloGold down over 1%, and Coeur Mining down 0.3% [5] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.29%, with individual stocks showing mixed performance. Xpeng Motors rose nearly 6%, Tencent Music up over 2%, while NIO, Bilibili, and Xiaoma Zhixing increased by over 1%. On the downside, WeRide fell over 4%, TAL Education down more than 3%, and Li Auto down nearly 3% [6] Commodity Prices - The FTSE A50 futures index fell by 0.32% to 13,881 points [9] - Crude oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude up by 8 cents to $63.96 per barrel (0.13% increase) and Brent crude up by 4 cents to $66.63 per barrel (0.06% increase) [9] - Gold futures dropped by 2.78% to $3,394.1 per ounce, while silver futures fell by 2.29% to $37.66 per ounce [10] Currency Exchange - The offshore RMB (CNH) against the USD was reported at 7.1965, a decrease of 72 points from the previous Friday's close [11] Economic Indicators - Attention is focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which is expected to provide insights into the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [12][13]