Market Strategy - The A-share market is currently experiencing adjustments, showing a weak oscillating trend, with expectations not significantly improving and index heights being limited [7] - In December, the overall performance of various asset classes is expected to be stable, with a neutral to slightly bullish outlook on stocks, commodities, and gold, while bonds and US stocks are neutral [7] - The report suggests focusing on mid-cap blue chips, which are undervalued and have lower institutional allocation, as well as sectors with improving marginal prosperity [7] Industry Strategy - The non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors are expected to maintain strong performance, while opportunities exist in agriculture and chemicals [4][7] - The industry is undergoing a market-driven and policy-supported capacity reduction phase, with a left-side layout window potentially emerging [7] - The current pig price has dropped to 11 yuan per kilogram, leading to widespread losses in the industry, which is expected to force high-cost production capacity to exit, setting a solid foundation for future price stabilization [7] Thematic Strategy - In agriculture, the accelerated reduction of pig stocks presents a left-side layout opportunity, with expectations of a cyclical rebound once the capacity reduction is solidified [5][7] - The report emphasizes that the valuation of the agriculture sector is at historical lows, indicating a potential entry point for investors [7]

财信证券认为，周二，A股大盘全天弱势震荡，成交量缩量，反映出当前资金追高意愿有限，市场风险 偏好仍有待提升。不过三大指数仍然处于5日均线和10日均线之上，短期修复性行情未出现趋势性变 化。因此从当日走势来看，短期大盘暂时不具备连续放量上攻的动力，或将维持震荡反弹趋势。中期来 看，随着机构资金逐步开始布局2026年方向、美联储降息靴子落地、"AI投资泡沫"担忧阶段性消退，A 股市场或将迎来新一轮做多窗口期。 中原证券认为，周二，A股市场全天震荡走低。盘中船舶制造、医药商业、消费电子以及煤炭等行业表 现较好；贵金属、能源金属、生物制品以及软件开发等行业表现较弱。经过前期的快速波动之后，上周 A股市场逐步企稳回升。中长期看，支撑本轮A股上涨的基础并未发生转变。预计上证指数围绕4000点 附近蓄势整固的可能性较大，市场风格再平衡仍将延续，周期与科技有望轮番表现。 东莞证券认为，周二，A股全天震荡调整，三大指数集体下挫。海外方面，美国供应管理协会周一公布 的数据显示，全美制造业整体景气度进一步下滑，连续第九个月跌破荣枯线。A股市场方面，当前市场 整体呈现高位震荡调整格局，资金分歧有所加大，叠加国际局势不确定性和AI板块 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 航天机器人领涨 A 股小幅整理 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：煤炭有色行业领涨 A 股震荡整 固》 2025-12-03 《市场分析：船舶医药行业领涨 A 股震荡整 固》 2025-12-02 《市场分析：通信半导体领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2025-12-01 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 04 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周四（12 月 04 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指高 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 3885 点附近遭遇阻力，随后股指震荡回 落，盘中机器人、航天航空、半导体以及汽车零部件等行业表现较 好；船舶制造、旅游酒店、食品饮料以及美容护理等行业表现较 弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅整理的运行特征。创业板市场周四震荡 上扬，创业板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及 ...

Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced changes to several indices, including the FTSE China 50 Index, FTSE China A50 Index, FTSE China A150 Index, FTSE China A200 Index, and FTSE China A400 Index, effective after the market close on December 19, 2025 [1]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China A50 Index will include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274), while removing Jiangsu Bank (600919) and SF Holding (002352) [4][6]. - The FTSE China 50 Index will add China Hongqiao, CATL (300750), and Hengrui Medicine (600276), while excluding CITIC Securities (601066), Great Wall Motors (601633), and Li Auto [6][8]. - The FTSE China A150 Index will incorporate Ying Shi Innovation, Jiangsu Bank, Huadian New Energy, SF Holding, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt (603799), while removing Luoyang Molybdenum, Desay SV (002920), Changdian Technology (600584), Baoxin Software (600845), Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (601607), and Sungrow Power Supply [10][12]. - The FTSE China A200 Index will add Ying Shi Innovation, Huadian New Energy, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt, while excluding Desay SV, Changdian Technology, Baoxin Software, and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [12]. - The FTSE China A400 Index will see a broader adjustment, adding Anji Technology (688019), Baiyin Nonferrous (601212), Yitang Co., and Bluefocus Communication Group (300058), while removing Chipbond Technology, Yipin Hong (300723), Guanghui Network (300383), and Huaxi Biological [13][14]. Group 2: Market Impact - The adjustments by FTSE Russell are expected to attract passive fund allocations to the newly included stocks and increase overseas interest in Chinese assets [17]. - In the first ten months of 2025, foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, significantly surpassing the total of $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024, marking an increase of over three times [17]. - UBS forecasts that A-share market earnings growth will rise from 6% this year to 8% next year, driven by improved nominal GDP growth and a narrowing of PPI declines [17]. - JPMorgan upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight," citing a higher likelihood of significant gains next year compared to potential downside risks [18]. - Morgan Stanley set a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4840 points by December 2026, indicating a stable outlook for Chinese stocks amid moderate earnings growth and higher valuation levels [18].

东吴证券认为，周三，A股主要指数普跌调整。目前，A股市场运行在方向选择区间，上证指数在3830 —3930点区间内震荡整理，前期出现大阴线下杀后修复，短期多空力量暂时未能出现明显失衡，关注后 续的震荡持续时间及方向选择。 财信证券认为，周三，在外围市场向好的情况下，A股市场继续调整，反映出当前资金风险偏好仍较 低，导致大盘短期反弹动能逐步减弱。目前市场主线方向暂不明朗，前期强势的锂电产业链迎来调整， 同时近期在AI端侧、AI应用方向利好较多的背景下，以AI产业链为主的科技线走势也低于预期，未能 引领大盘持续走强，使得市场信心受到一定影响。短期内，随着大盘反弹力度下降，指数层面或将迎来 震荡，耐心等待放量长阳或者其他明确的回暖信号出现。中期来看，随着机构资金逐步开始布局2026年 方向、美联储降息靴子落地、"AI投资泡沫"担忧阶段性消退，A股市场或将迎来新一轮做多窗口期。 中原证券认为，周三，A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理。盘中煤炭、有色金属、风电设备以及中药等 行业表现较好；互联网服务、能源金属、文化传媒以及软件开发等行业表现较弱。经过前期的快速波动 之后，上周A股市场逐步企稳回升。中长期支撑本轮A股上涨的基 ...

Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced adjustments to several indices, including the FTSE China 50 Index, FTSE China A50 Index, FTSE China A150 Index, FTSE China A200 Index, and FTSE China A400 Index, effective after the market close on December 19, 2025 [1][17]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China A50 Index will include Luoyang Molybdenum and Sungrow Power, while removing Jiangsu Bank and SF Holding [3][19]. - The FTSE China 50 Index will add China Hongqiao, CATL, and Heng Rui Medicine, and remove CITIC Securities, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [5][21]. - The FTSE China A150 Index will add Ying Shi Innovation, Jiangsu Bank, Huadian New Energy, SF Holding, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt, while removing Luoyang Molybdenum, Desay SV, Longi Green Energy, Baoxin Software, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, and Sungrow Power [9][25]. - The FTSE China A200 Index will include Ying Shi Innovation, Huadian New Energy, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt, and exclude Desay SV, Longi Green Energy, Baoxin Software, and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [11][27]. - The FTSE China A400 Index will see a broader adjustment, adding Anji Technology, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Yitang Co., and BlueFocus, while removing Chipbond Technology, Yipin Hong, Guanghuan Xin, and Huaxi Biological [12][28]. Group 2: Investment Implications - The adjustments by FTSE Russell are expected to attract passive fund allocations to the included stocks and increase overseas interest in Chinese assets [15][31]. - In the first ten months of 2025, foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, significantly surpassing the $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024, marking an increase of over three times [15][31]. - UBS forecasts that the A-share market will see an increase in earnings growth from 6% this year to 8% next year, driven by improved nominal GDP growth and a narrowing of PPI declines [16][32]. - Morgan Stanley has set a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4,840 points by December 2026, indicating a stable outlook for Chinese stocks amid moderate earnings growth and higher valuation levels [16][32].

本报记者 孟 珂 近日，多家外资机构发布研报，表示对2026年中国经济充满信心并看好A股市场。 瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊表示，由于国内2025年前三季度GDP增速提升和PPI跌幅收窄推升企 业营收增速，且支持政策的推出以及"反内卷"的推进带动利润率复苏，2026年A股整体盈利增速有望升 至8%。 联博基金也表示，国内持续加码的政策支持正有效提振企业盈利能力和投资价值，上市公司ROE水平与 股息回报率有望进入稳步上升通道。同时，民营企业在创新活力与效率提升方面也正发挥着日益关键的 作用，将成为推动经济高质量发展的重要力量。 "中期来看，增量的宏观政策、A股盈利增长加速叠加无风险利率下行、居民存款持续往股市'搬家'、长 线资金持续净流入股市以及市值管理改革的持续推进将助力A股市场的估值进一步上行。"孟磊说。 摩根士丹利认为，在盈利温和增长、估值在更高水平上企稳的背景下，中国在全球科技竞赛中站稳脚 跟，相关指数整体仍具备相对温和的上行空间。 值得关注的是，近期A股市场因一些短期因素而有所回调。孟磊分析认为原因有三方面：一是全球科技 板块自高点有所回落；二是A股投资者在科创相关主题的投资拥挤度在三季度末达到高位 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a new bullish window period supported by four core dimensions: policy, valuation, earnings, and liquidity [1][2][3] - Policy measures are providing a "safety net" for the market, with a focus on stable growth and capital market reforms, creating a favorable macro environment [1][2] - Current A-share valuations are at historical lows, highlighting the "cost-effectiveness" that attracts investment [1][2] Group 2 - The resilience of the real economy and improving earnings are fundamental supports for the market's upward movement, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The continuous optimization of economic structure is providing high-quality growth targets for the capital market, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 9.6% year-on-year [2] - Ample and targeted liquidity is essential for the market's activation, with the People's Bank of China implementing measures to lower financing costs and enhance the attractiveness of equity assets [2][3]

Group 1 - Multiple foreign institutions express confidence in China's economy and A-share market for 2026, with UBS predicting an overall profit growth of 8% for A-shares due to improved GDP growth and narrowing PPI decline [1] - Continued policy support is effectively boosting corporate profitability and investment value, with rising ROE levels and dividend yields expected for listed companies [1] - Macro policies, accelerated A-share profit growth, declining risk-free rates, and long-term capital inflows are anticipated to drive further valuation increases in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Recent A-share market pullback attributed to three factors: global tech sector decline, high investment concentration in sci-tech themes, and profit-taking by investors near year-end [2] - Despite short-term adjustments in sectors like AI, the long-term logic of industrial transformation remains solid, with current market volatility providing opportunities for investors to acquire quality growth stocks at reasonable prices [2] - JPMorgan has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight," predicting a 17% upside for the CSI 300 index by the end of 2026 [2]

又有重要指数成份股调整。 12 月 3 日， 富时罗素 宣布对富时中国 50 指数、富时中国 A50 指数、富时中国 A150 指数、富时中国 A200 指 数、富时中国 A400 指数的审核变更。该变更将于 2025 年 12 月 19 日星期五收盘后生效。 据了解，富时罗素在选股的时候，一般都是根据专业分析、实地考察以及过往的盈利能力作为准则，因此被富 时罗素"青睐"的公司在过去的一年经营情况在A股范围内也是个中翘楚。 纳入这些股票 具体来看，富时中国A50指数纳入洛阳钼业、阳光电源；删除江苏银行、顺丰控股。 | 纳入个股 | | 剔除个股 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | 603993. SH | 洛阳钼业 | 600919. SH | 江苏银行 | | 300274. SZ | 阳光电源 | 002352. SZ | 顺丰控股 | 富时中国A50指数由富时罗素编制并发布。该指数由上海和深圳证券交易所市场中总市值最大的50只股票组 成，反映A股市场中最具影响力的前50大上市公司股票的表现，不少国际投资者把这一指数看 ...