关税最新。 当地时间1月12日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文称，即日起，任何与伊朗伊斯 兰共和国开展商业往来的国家，在与美国进行的任何商业活动中都将被征收25%的关税。 特朗普强调，该决定"最终且不可更改"。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 总台记者 当地时间1月10日获悉，据多位知情美国官员透露，美国总统特朗普近日听取了关于对伊朗进 行军事打击方案的简报，正在认真考虑是否对伊朗发动打击。 美官员透露，目前特朗普尚未作出最终决定，但他正在认真考虑授权美军发动军事打击。美军行动有一 系列选项，包括对德黑兰的非军事地点进行打击。 据悉，美国国务卿鲁比奥10日还与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡通话，讨论了伊朗局势以及加沙和叙利亚问 题。 近日，伊朗因物价上涨和货币贬值爆发示威活动，多地发生骚乱，造成人员伤亡。伊朗最高国家安全委 员会9日发表声明说，在美国和以色列策划和控制下，此次抗议活动演变为对国家安全的破坏。特朗普 近期言论表明 ...

特朗普称"这将是一团糟，我们的国家几乎不可能支付费用"，"如果最高法院在这一国家安全财富上做 出对美国不利的裁决，我们就完蛋了！"（央视记者刘旭） 当地时间1月12日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文表示，如果美国最高法院出于任何原 因做出对美国不利的关税裁决，美国将要面临实际金额数千亿美元的赔偿。 特朗普表示，这还不包括政府和相关公司为避免支付关税而对建设工厂和设备进行投资所需的"偿还"金 额。当这些金额加起来时，将是数万亿美元。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） ...

Ever since President Donald Trump launched his controversial tariff policy on April 2, 2025, reaction to the threat of tariffs (and their disruption of America’s relationship with its trade partners) has been mixed. Retailers and economists have expressed concerns about tariffs driving up prices, while most of President Trump’s Republican Party has been supportive. Recently, to further shore up support for his tariff policy, Trump has announced that tariff revenues will allow him to send $2,000 “tariff div ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 50,000 jobs added in December 2025 and a total of 584,000 jobs for the year, a significant drop from the 2 million jobs added in 2024, marking the lowest record for non-recession periods since the early 2000s [2] - The introduction of tariff policies in April 2025 has been identified as a core factor affecting the labor market, leading to job losses in manufacturing and other sectors, creating survival pressures for ordinary workers [3] - The healthcare and social services sectors are among the few industries maintaining stable hiring, driven by aging population demands and the service-oriented nature of the work, which is less likely to be replaced by artificial intelligence [4] Group 2 - The uncertainty in policies and economic outlook has made job stability the primary consideration for young job seekers, with many preferring stable employment in healthcare over high-paying opportunities in tech [4] - A Supreme Court ruling declaring certain tariffs illegal could provide market certainty, alleviating business pressures and potentially boosting hiring demand [5] - Even if tariffs are ruled illegal, the impact on global trade and U.S. employment may not be fully resolved, as other tariffs imposed by the previous administration could still remain in effect [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with only 50,000 new jobs added in December 2025, and a total of 584,000 jobs created throughout the year, marking a significant decline from the 2 million jobs added in 2024, the weakest performance since the early 2000s excluding recession years [1] - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi attributed part of the labor market stagnation to the tariff policies implemented by former President Trump, indicating that these tariffs have directly impacted employment in manufacturing, transportation, distribution, and agriculture sectors [1] - The uncertainty in hiring decisions among businesses is exacerbated by rising costs and squeezed profit margins due to tariffs, leading to a more cautious approach in recruitment and investment decisions [2] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector has lost approximately 70,000 jobs in recent months, with other trade-related industries such as mining, logging, and warehousing also experiencing significant job losses [2] - Healthcare and social services remain among the few sectors still hiring steadily, suggesting that without these industries, the employment data for 2025 would be even worse [2] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariff policies is critical, as it may affect the legality of certain tariffs, but other tariffs imposed through different legal means may continue to pose a threat to the global trade system [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场要闻与重要数据 光伏价格指数方面，截至2025年12月29日（最新）数据报14.10，较此前一期上行0.38。光伏经理人指数 报134.37，环比下跌1.8。 策略 黄金：谨慎偏多 目前市场对于黄金交易逻辑未发生明显改变；关税方面，即便美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府关税政策不 合法，其作为总统亦可通过其他方式进行关税加征，料不会对金价形成长期利空，黄金避险溢价仍将延 续交易主线地位；此外黄金作为美元资产替代的逻辑亦未发生明显改变，整体维持对黄金谨慎偏多观 点，操作上延续逢低做多思路。 白银：谨慎偏多 宏观面 2026-01-09当周，金银价格继续维持高位震荡的强势表现。经济数据方面，非农新增就业5万，前两月 累计下修7.6万，其中政府分别新增1.3万，私营部门新增3.7万，结构上看服务业偏强（+5.8万），工业 部门则偏弱（制造、建筑和采掘为负增长）；失业率方面，由上个月的4.564%降至4.375%，大幅好于 4.5%的预期。整体看，本月的劳动力市场数据部分打消了对近期就业市走弱的担忧，但从整体趋势 （新增就业、 ...

一个数据可以翻篇，也可以揭露一场政治与经济的戏码，2025年10月美国对外贸易数字一下子给出了一个让人眩目的答案出口创历史新高，进口降至21个月 低点，贸易逆差缩到仅294亿美元，这是自2009年以来的最低月度缺口。 这组数字来得干脆利落，像一记当头棒喝，它告诉我们，表面上是货流回缩，背后却有政策、消费与全球供链的多重博弈。 先说最直观的原因，特朗普政府的关税政策和一系列贸易摩擦，不是简单的"多征关税＝加税收"，而是通过抑制进口需求、调整供应链、迫使企业回流或转 移采购，短期内确实能压低进口额，结果就是这个看起来"光鲜"的逆差收窄数字。 但这不是"魔法"，有因必有果，关税像一根大棒，打在进口商品价格上，消费者买得少了，企业采购动了，进口量随之下滑；美元、全球经济放缓与供应链 重构也在配合，这些因素合起来，把进口从高位拉下，逆差因此收窄。 这里要设问——逆差变小，是胜利果实，还是隐匿的风险？答案并不单纯，数据既能说真话，也会撒谎。 这就牵出一个问题统计数据能否成为政策宣传的工具？答案当然会有两面性，政府拿着缩减的逆差去说"政策有效"，媒体跟着鼓掌，选民可能也会被短期数 字所迷惑，可历史教训告诉我们，单月数据不是 ...

Report Investment Rating - Platinum: Neutral [3] - Palladium: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Platinum shows a continuous oscillation, while palladium requires continuous attention to tariff policy trends. In the medium - term, the upward trend of platinum and palladium in the first quarter remains unchanged. The structural tightness in the spot market of platinum and palladium persists, and the tight balance of the spot market remains the core fundamental factor supporting prices. However, it is still necessary to monitor the impact of tariff policies on the prices of silver, platinum, and palladium [3][5] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - **Trading Volume and Position in Guangzhou Futures Exchange**: As of the end of this week, the total position of Guangzhou platinum is 39,590 lots, and the trading volume this week is 317,912 lots; the total position of Guangzhou palladium is 15,024 lots, and the trading volume this week is 122,569 lots. The position volume further decreased. Currently, the trading volume and position volume of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts. The monthly spread of palladium showed an obvious C - structure last week, and the PT08 contract was the price trough [9] - **Overseas Futures - Spot Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London platinum spot and New York platinum main contract converged and remained inverted, with the spread at $4.2 per ounce on Friday. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract was slightly at a discount, with a weekly average of - $7 per ounce. For palladium, the spread between London palladium spot and New York palladium main contract generally widened this week but converged to - $41 per ounce on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract also converged overall, occasionally showing a positive value [12][14] - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - **Platinum Futures - Spot Positive Arbitrage**: The cost is 8.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is 6.98 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [16] - **Palladium Futures - Spot Positive Arbitrage**: The cost is 6.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 72.1 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 65.4 yuan per gram [18] - **Platinum Near - Far Month Inter - Month Positive Arbitrage**: The cost is 8.0 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 2.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [20] - **Palladium Near - Far Month Inter - Month Positive Arbitrage**: The cost is 6.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 0.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [22] - **Platinum Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage**: The cost is 70.5 yuan per gram, and the spread is 85.9 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 15.4 yuan per gram [24] - **Palladium Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage**: The cost is 59.3 yuan per gram, and the spread is 73.9 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 14.6 yuan per gram [26] - **Platinum Import Parity Calculation**: The cost is 65.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 116.1 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 50.4 yuan per gram [28] - **Palladium Import Parity Calculation**: The cost is 55.2 yuan per gram, and the spread is 93.2 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 48 yuan per gram [30] - **Recycling End Spread**: As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium回调, the recycling discount of platinum widened to - 100 yuan per gram this week, while the recycling discount of palladium remained at around - 50 yuan per gram [32] - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings decreased by 0.27 tons (about 0.86 million ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.46 tons (about 1.48 million ounces). The net outflow of platinum ETFs contrasts with the increase in palladium ETFs, but the increase rate of palladium ETFs has slowed down [34] Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: In the past month, the overseas forward markets of both platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discount of platinum and palladium has been continuously deepening. Platinum retraced slightly and then rebounded on Friday [39] - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: - **Platinum**: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased to 624,754.53 ounces, approximately 19.43 tons; the proportion of registered warehouse receipts increased to 57% [41] - **Palladium**: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 211,305.82 ounces, approximately 6.57 tons; the proportion of registered warehouse receipts further decreased to 65% [44] - **China's Import - Export Data**: - **Platinum**: Since September 2025, platinum exports have surged, and imports and net inflows have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 557.17 tons. In November, imports decreased to 4.58 tons, and the net inflow rate also slowed down to 3.34 tons. December data is not yet available [51] - **Palladium**: Since 2020, palladium has had almost no exports and is in a pure import state, with a cumulative net inflow of 162 tons. In November, imports increased to 3.02 tons, and the net inflow was 3.02 tons. December data is not yet available [51] - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: A negative supply - demand balance indicates that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, and the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was mostly positive, but reached - 90 kg on Friday. The supply - demand balance of London palladium fixing was positive throughout the week [52][53]

王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2026年01月11日 国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 04 铸造铝合金：锚定铝价，价格震荡偏强 07 铂金：持续震荡，钯金：需持续关注关税政策动向 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 08 05 锌：强宏观定价，价格易涨难跌 06 铅：库存低位增加，价格震荡 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：地缘政治刺激避险情绪 白银：高位回落，资金止盈离场 02 03 铜：微观长期看多，宏观扰动因素增加，价格走势坚挺且波动放大 铝：重心显著上行，高价仓位管理必要性 ...

Group 1 - The average monthly job growth in the U.S. dropped to the lowest level in decades, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The tightening job market prior to 2025 was exacerbated by extensive and frequently adjusted tariff policies, contributing to employment market weakness [1] Group 2 - Companies are adopting a cautious approach to hiring due to the uncertain business environment influenced by tariff policies, with some even initiating layoffs [2] - Economic experts indicate that the unclear policy outlook diminishes companies' motivation to expand their workforce, leading to a more cautious stance on hiring and investment decisions [2] - Tariff policies have altered how companies assess profitability, resulting in increased costs and squeezed profit margins, making previously viable investment projects unprofitable [2] Group 3 - Consumer spending decisions are also being affected by tariff policies, with manufacturers reporting a decrease in new orders due to uncertain tariff prospects [3] - The repeated adjustments in trade policies have left many companies in a state of paralysis, absorbing the increased costs without passing them on to consumers, although the sustainability of this situation remains uncertain [3] - The slowdown in job growth and rising prices, while appearing different, are closely linked to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies [3]