Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "TS Contract: Can It Still Be Used for Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage? - Interest Rate Weekly (Week 3 of May)" [1] - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi, with a practice certificate number of S0010522030002 [2] - Research Assistant: Hong Ziyan, with a practice certificate number of S0010123060036 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 3, the bond market's maturity yields have first decreased and then increased. Among treasury bond futures, the TL contract has been strong, while the TS/TF/T main contracts have declined [2]. - The weak performance of the TS contract is due to the previous large premium and the change in the expectation of loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy changed significantly in Q1, and there are differences in the short - term expectation of loose monetary policy after the double - cut in May. The yield curve has flattened instead of steepening as expected [3]. - As of May 16, the basis of the TS main contract is - 0.07 yuan, and the IRR is 1.79%. The basis has significantly converged, and the IRR is close to the capital interest rate, so the cost - effectiveness of cash - and - carry arbitrage is insufficient [4]. - In the short term, the TS contract may still be in a premium state because of the continuous negative carry. The inversion between R001 and the 2 - year treasury bond maturity yield has decreased from about 60bp at the beginning of the year to 15bp on May 16, and the negative carry phenomenon of some varieties will continue [4]. - Considering that the tight capital situation in Q1 will not repeat, the short - term interest rate has a ceiling and the probability of a sharp decline is low. With the significant convergence of the basis, one can consider participating in the possible rise of the TS contract [4]. Group 4: Analyst and Research Assistant Introduction - Analyst Yan Ziqi is the assistant director of the Research Institute of Hua'an Securities and the chief analyst of fixed income. He has 8 years of experience in sell - side fixed income and equity research, and has won the second place in the 2024 Wind Gold Analyst and the best analyst in the 2023 Choice fixed income industry [12]. - Research Assistant Hong Ziyan is a master of financial engineering from the University of Southern California, covering macro - interest rates, institutional behavior, and treasury bond futures research [12].

期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货小幅下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.1%。银行间主要利率债收益率小幅上行，幅度多在1bp左右，三年以内中短券收益率升幅仍较明显。 存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率双双大幅飙升，前者上行约22个bp，后者上行超11个bp。近期基本面压力有望缓和，宽松政策节奏放缓的可能上升。 2、资金面：5月16日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1065亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1065亿元，中标量1065亿元。 Wind数据显示，当日770亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放295亿元。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年5月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.0333，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为0. ...

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/19 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/16 | 4.480 | 4.648 | 3.262 | 2.589 | 3.595 | 3.211 | 0.295 | 3.341 | | 最新变化 | 0.047 | -0.011 | -0.031 | -0.031 | -0.031 | -0.024 | -0.019 | -0.042 | | 一周变化 | 0.100 | 0.082 | -0.002 | 0.028 | -0.013 | 0.006 | 0.023 | -0.016 | | 一月变化 | 0.144 | 0.001 | -0.031 | 0.057 | -0.120 | -0.028 | -0.15 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 主 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均小幅震荡回调。由于外部风险因素有所缓和，内部经济指标尚待验证政 策效果，4 月信贷数据线上企业与居民部门的信贷需求偏弱，短期内继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 30-year Treasury futures declined by 21 points, while the 10-year Treasury futures fell by 7 points [1] Group 1 - The decline in 30-year Treasury futures indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term bonds [1] - The drop in 10-year Treasury futures suggests a similar trend in the mid-term bond market [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 16 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货小幅震荡调整 核心观点 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 今日国债期货均小幅震荡回调。由于外部风险因素有所缓和，内部经 济指标尚待验证政策效果，4 月信贷数据线上企业与居民部门的信贷需求偏 弱，短期内继续降息的可能性较低，国债期货上行动能有所不足。不过考虑 到政策利率的锚定作用，市场利率上行空间受限，国债期货下行的空间也就 较为有限。后续需要关注外部的关税以及美联储等风险因素的演变以及国 内的宏观经济指标等表现情况。总的来说，短期内国债期货上行与下行的空 间均较为有限，以震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate within a range. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, but due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly in a consolidation phase. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in a short - term consolidation phase. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, and the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. In the short term, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited, mainly in a consolidation phase. Follow - up attention should be paid to external factors such as tariffs and the Fed, as well as domestic macro - economic indicators. [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年5月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货多数上涨，30年期主力合约收涨0.24%，银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷反弹。存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率双双微幅上升。 降准生效流动性持稳而非进一步宽松；整体资金环境依然偏暖，后期关注本月中期借贷便利（MLF）续做情况。 2、资金面：5月15日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了645亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量645亿元，中标量645亿元。Wind 数据显示，当日1586亿元逆回购和1250亿元MLF到期，据此计算，单日全口径净回笼2191亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.0297，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为0.0471，现券升水期货 ...

做任何生意都需要成本，有时间成本、经济成本、财务成本，沉默成本等等。做投资也是一样，要想赚 钱，就必然要付出一定的成本，这个成本不是指投资的本金，而是指每笔交易（买卖）你能够接受的最 大亏损。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250515— 成功、失败、印度式；赚钱、亏损、放AC（+股市偏弱-资金面尾盘收敛=涨跌不 一)】 资金面松转收敛，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展645亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1586亿元逆回购和1250亿元MLF到期，合计净回 笼2191亿元。 上午资金面维持宽松，尾盘边际收敛。全天来看，资金加权利率变化不大，DR001在1.41%附近， DR007在1.52%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 05. 15) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约持平，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.03%，10年期国债期货（T） 主力合约涨0.02%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.24%。 国债期货午盘收盘 ...