Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - Under the continuation of Sino - US tariff policies, the oilseed market is oscillating. The soybean supply is expected to remain loose, and the peanut market is generally weak with low downstream consumption and cautious middlemen [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Soybean Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the soy - one 2509 contract was 4153.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 147, down 9 (-32.14%) from the previous day. On Tuesday, CBOT soybean futures fell for the third consecutive day, with the benchmark contract down 0.3%. Northeast soybean prices were stable, with remaining grain mostly consumed and limited trader inventories [1][2] - **Market Factors**: The Sino - US negotiation result maintained the previous "reciprocal tariff" rate, and the US soybean export expectation had no substantial change. The soybean crop in the Northeast was growing well, and the supply was expected to be loose [3] Peanut Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8106.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan/ton (+0.05%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8580.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan/ton (-0.46%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 94.00, down 4.00 (-4.08%) month - on - month. The domestic peanut market was oscillating slightly downward, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.29 yuan/jin [4] - **Market Factors**: The peanut market was generally weak, with a sluggish downstream consumption environment, light trading, increased operating difficulties for middlemen, and strong risk - aversion sentiment [4]

据央视新闻消息，当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普发文称，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。 根据协议，韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元，用于由美方拥有并控制的投资项目。此外，韩国还将采购价值1000亿 美元的液化天然气或其他能源产品，并承诺再投资一笔大额资金，用于其本国投资目的。该金额将在韩国总统李 在明两周后访美举行双边会谈时公布。 特朗普表示，美韩双方达成一致，美国将对韩国征收15%的关税。同时，美国不会被征收关税。韩国将对美全面 开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 特朗普 资料图 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与特朗普7月27日宣布，美欧达成新贸易协议，美国将对欧盟输美大部分产品征收15%的 关税。在此之前，美国还宣布和日本达成贸易协议，同样将所谓对等关税下调至15%。 日本和欧盟分别承诺对美国投资5500亿美元和6000亿美元，并增加购买美国商品。 有分析指出，美日、美欧的两份协议，表面上看起来缓解了贸易紧张局势，但实质是美国利用经济霸权对外进行 经济胁迫，这是美国"新经济殖民主义"的又一次体现。 另据环球网报道，特朗普当地时间7月30日在其自创社交平台上发帖称，美国不会延长自8月1日 ...

专题：美联储如预期所料按兵不动 利率声明暗示降息之日渐近 7月31日，美国6月整体及核心CPI略有反弹，供应管理会制造业PMI连续4个月低于荣枯线50，但6月失 业率下行至4.1%，显示美国就业形势稳定，而美国刚公布的二季度GDP初值环比折年率超预期达到 3%。另外，美国"对等关税"大限在即，特朗普总统多次施压引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，均使美 联储7月会议结果备受关注。美东时间7月30日，美联储7月会议维持政策利率不变，但有两位委员表明 应立即降息。美股表現分化：万得数据显示，昨夜道琼斯指数下跌0.38%，标普500指数下跌0.12%，纳 斯达克指数上0.15%，美元指数几乎平盘，美国10年期国债收益率收在4.38%。 美联储本次会议决议及会后鲍威尔发言重点包括了： 一：虽然净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓，经济前景不确定 性仍然偏高，委员会决定将联邦基准利率区间维持4.25%至4.5%不变。 二：会后声明指出，劳动力市场依然稳定，失业率保持低位，但通胀仍然偏高；在评估适当的货币政策 立场时，委员会关注政策使命的双重风险。 三、米歇尔-勒鲍曼和克里斯托弗-沃勒持两位委员持 ...

Group 1: Tariff Announcements - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on South Korean goods and a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1 [1][2] - Brazil will face a 40% tariff, raising the total tariff to 50% on certain products [2] - A 50% tariff will be applied to various semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [3] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - South Korea will invest $350 billion in U.S. controlled projects and purchase $100 billion worth of LNG or other energy products [1] - The trade deficit between the U.S. and India is significant, with U.S.-India trade estimated at $128.8 billion for 2024 and India having a trade surplus of $45.8 billion [2] - Following the tariff announcements, copper prices in New York fell nearly 20% [4]

Core Viewpoint - South Korea has agreed to purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Trade Agreements - South Korea's counterpart tariffs and auto tariffs will be set at 15% [1] - Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper are excluded from this agreement [1] Industry Specifics - South Korea will not face discrimination in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors [1]

Group 1 - The White House announced that copper raw materials and scrap copper are exempt from tariffs under Section 232 or reciprocal tariffs [1]

关税最新。 美国总统特朗普7月29日表示，美国可能对印度输美产品征收20%至25%的关税，但尚未最后决定。 特朗普当天乘专机从英国返美途中对媒体记者说，印度对美国产品征收的关税几乎高于任何其他国家对 美国产品征收的关税，"你（印度）不能这么做"。 特朗普25日表示，美国将向近200个贸易伙伴致信，确定美国对这些国家产品的关税税率。他此前威 胁，将从8月1日开始向未能与美国达成贸易协议的贸易伙伴征收高关税。 美国贸易代表格里尔28日表示，美国需要更多时间与印度谈判，以评估印度向美国开放更多市场的意 愿。 对于特朗普最新关税威胁，印度官方尚未回应。 特朗普4月2日公布所谓"对等关税"措施后，美印双方举行了多轮会谈，但谈判仍陷于僵局。据报道，印 度在保护农业和乳业方面持强硬立场，双方还在购买俄罗斯石油等方面存在分歧。有媒体报道称，印度 计划于8月中旬与美方重启范围更广的贸易谈判。 美国商务部数据显示，2024年，美国与印度的商品贸易金额大约为1288亿美元，印度对美贸易顺差为 458亿美元。 美商务部长称8月1日加征关税期限将不再延长 当地时间7月27日，美国商务部长卢特尼克在接受采访时表示，美国将不再延长8月1日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a very low probability of a rate cut at only 3% [1][2] Group 1: External Pressures - President Trump has been vocally critical of the Federal Reserve, questioning its spending on renovations and pressuring for rate cuts to alleviate government debt costs [1] - The White House's proximity to the Federal Reserve has intensified the scrutiny and criticism directed at Chairman Powell [2] Group 2: Internal Dissent - There is a possibility that multiple Federal Reserve governors may vote against the decision for the first time in over 30 years, with the last occurrence dating back to 1993 [2] - Analysts predict that governors Waller and Bowman may cast dissenting votes due to concerns over high interest rates amid rising employment risks [7][8] Group 3: Upcoming Meeting Highlights - Key changes in the Federal Reserve's statement are anticipated, particularly regarding the assessment of economic uncertainty, which may remain at a high level [4][5] - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's economic outlook, with a potential downgrade from "solid" to "moderate" growth [6] Group 4: Rate Cut Signals - The likelihood of Powell signaling a September rate cut during the meeting is considered low, but investors will look for clues during his press conference [9][10] - Current market pricing suggests a greater than 60% probability of a rate cut in September, although the Federal Reserve may be cautious about raising these expectations before key economic data is released [12] Group 5: Trade and Tariff Impacts - Powell may face questions regarding the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, as uncertainty continues to affect business decisions [14][15] - The delayed implementation of tariffs is expected to have a gradual impact on prices, with businesses currently absorbing some of the costs [15] Group 6: Political Pressures - Powell is likely to be questioned about the influence of political pressures on monetary policy decisions, particularly in light of recent scrutiny from the Trump administration [16][17] - The potential for an internal review of the Federal Reserve's non-monetary policy functions has been suggested, indicating a need for clarity on the institution's mission [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential imposition of tariffs by the United States on Indian products, with President Trump indicating a possible rate of 20% to 25% [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Discussions - President Trump stated that India imposes higher tariffs on U.S. products compared to other countries, emphasizing the need for a trade agreement [2]. - The U.S. Trade Representative, Lighthizer, mentioned that more time is needed to negotiate with India regarding market access [3]. - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the deadline for imposing tariffs on August 1 will not be extended [6][7]. Group 2: Trade Data - In 2024, the trade volume between the U.S. and India is projected to be approximately $128.8 billion, with India having a trade surplus of $45.8 billion with the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Ongoing Negotiations - Despite multiple rounds of talks following Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," negotiations remain stalled, particularly due to India's firm stance on protecting its agricultural and dairy sectors [4]. - India is reportedly planning to resume broader trade negotiations with the U.S. in mid-August [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, while silver is expected to break through and rise. Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate. Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation. Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories. Tin and aluminum will fluctuate within a range. Alumina is driven by short - term sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trend**: The price of gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 771.44, down 0.43%, and the night - session closing price was 774.32, up 0.49% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 36,087 compared to the previous day, and the position increased by 2,732. The SPDR Gold ETF's position remained unchanged at 956.23 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The US court started oral arguments on Thursday, and the "reciprocal tariffs" face the "risk of cancellation" [5][9]. Silver - **Price and Trend**: Silver is expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9195, down 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 9234.00, up 0.46% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 611,380 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 5,678. The SLV Silver ETF's position increased by 14 to 15,173.92 [5]. Copper - **Price and Trend**: Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,840, down 0.20%, and the night - session closing price was 79090, up 0.32% [2][10]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 10,226 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,348. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 251 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. India is delaying new trade concessions. The US is considering a 50% tariff on copper imports starting next week [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trend**: Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22655, up 0.04%, and the closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2805.5, down 0.83% [2][13]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 65,890 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,845. The LME Zinc inventory decreased by 3,350 [13]. - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [14]. Lead - **Price and Trend**: Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16900, down 0.09%, and the closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2017.5, down 0.15% [2][17]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 24,548 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,012. The LME Lead inventory increased by 6,700 [17]. - **News**: Sino - US will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The US job vacancies in June were 7.437 million, less than expected [18]. Tin - **Price and Trend**: Tin will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 266,660, down 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 268,050, up 0.26% [2][21]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 26,514 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,387. The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 160 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, Sino - US tariff - related issues and other macro - events are mentioned [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trend**: Aluminum and alumina will fluctuate within a range, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20605, down 10. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3307, up 64 [2][26]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 68,337 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 12,465. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged at 51.40 million tons [26]. - **News**: Trump set a new deadline for Russia to reach a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the price of crude oil rose by more than 4% during the session. Trump and Bessent stated that the US will issue long - term bonds after the interest rate drops [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trend**: Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800, up 180. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,920, up 80 [2][30]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 177,969 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,420. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract decreased by 211,230 compared to the previous day [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [30][31].