Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has outlined key tasks for the second half of 2025, focusing on stabilizing employment, expanding domestic demand, and promoting the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1][2] - The NDRC reported that China's economy has shown resilience and vitality, with positive performance in major economic indicators and effective risk prevention in key areas [1] - The NDRC plans to enhance investment and consumption, with over 300 billion yuan allocated for the third batch of "two new" construction projects in 2025 [1] Group 1 - The NDRC aims to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while strengthening domestic circulation and optimizing external circulation [1] - The focus for the second half of the year includes nine key areas, such as stabilizing investment and promoting consumption [1] - The NDRC has issued a total of 800 billion yuan for "two new" construction projects this year, with all project lists now finalized [1] Group 2 - The NDRC, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, has allocated 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy [2] - Plans are in place to issue an additional 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds in October to continue supporting local consumption initiatives [2] - The NDRC emphasizes the need to eliminate "involution" competition and promote healthy development of the private economy through reforms in bidding and investment practices [2]

Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment in infrastructure and manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, contributing significantly to economic performance[3] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[3] - The need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy was highlighted, including accelerating government bond issuance and promoting a decline in social financing costs[3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The report stresses the importance of implementing special actions to boost consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption, particularly through recently introduced childcare subsidies[4] - Focus on effective investment and the implementation of policies to optimize market competition and regulate local investment attraction behaviors[4] Risk Management - Key areas for risk prevention include addressing risks in the real estate sector, managing local government debt, and enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets[4] - The report identifies several external risks, including uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, which could impact economic expectations[3] Strategic Outlook - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will focus on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan, marking a critical transition period for economic strategy[2] - The meeting acknowledged the complex and changing development environment, emphasizing the need to leverage domestic advantages while adapting to external challenges[2]

Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yunnan Province's GDP reached 1.553744 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.4% [1] - The growth rate of GDP improved by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year and by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter of this year [1] - The province's industrial added value and retail sales of consumer goods also showed growth rates higher than those of the first quarter and the previous year [1] Energy and Industrial Growth - Yunnan Province added 13.7701 million kilowatts of new installed renewable energy capacity, with total power generation increasing by 9.3% year-on-year [1] - The crude oil processing volume grew by 6.7%, and raw coal production increased by 5.9% [1] - The non-ferrous metal industry saw an added value growth of 16.9%, while the new energy battery industry experienced a significant increase of 72.1% [1] Investment and Consumption - The province's fixed asset investment has been consistently growing, with energy, transportation, and water conservancy investments increasing by 30.7%, 17%, and 5.6% respectively [2] - The opening rate of major industrial projects reached 85.13%, with 529 projects attracting over 100 million yuan, a growth of 43.4% [2] - The introduction of 10 billion yuan in consumer vouchers and 30 billion yuan in subsidies stimulated consumption exceeding 30 billion yuan [2] Employment and Income - In the first half of the year, Yunnan Province created 280,400 new urban jobs, and 15.1493 million rural laborers were employed [2] - The per capita disposable income of residents grew by 5.3%, with rural residents' income increasing by 6.2%, surpassing the national average by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The proportion of public spending on people's livelihoods reached 74.8% [2]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, Liaoning Province added 281,000 urban jobs, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] - The province assisted 248,000 unemployed individuals in finding reemployment and helped 41,000 individuals facing employment difficulties [1] - A total of 8,811 recruitment events were held, addressing a labor shortage of 390,000 positions [1] Group 2 - The "Skills Liaoning Action" was implemented, providing vocational training and job practice for 511,000 individuals [2] - The province added 229 special-level technicians and 193 chief technicians, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% and 4.4% respectively in supporting entrepreneurial leaders [2] - Public employment services were strengthened, with 612,000 policy promotions and 2,116 recruitment matching events conducted [2]

今年以来，一系列稳就业政策密集出台、加速落地。"加快政策落实、加力政策支持"已成为当前就业工 作的主旋律。政策落地上突出及时精准，释放出稳就业、稳民生的强烈信号。 今年3月，《加力重点领域、重点行业、城乡基层和中小微企业岗位挖潜扩容支持重点群体就业创业实 施方案》出台，方案聚焦先进制造业、消费新热点、民生新需求、重大工程项目等领域行业，面向城乡 基层与中小微企业，通过分领域、分类别的专项规划，着力加大就业岗位释放力度。 4月初，中办、国办印发《关于加快构建普通高等学校毕业生高质量就业服务体系的意见》，要求把高 校毕业生就业作为重中之重，开发更多有利于发挥所学所长的就业岗位。4月28日，人力资源社会保障 部副部长俞家栋在国新办新闻发布会上宣布，将会同财政部下拨667亿元中央就业补助资金，为稳就业 政策实施提供保障。 7月初，国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步加大稳就业政策支持力度的通知》（以下简称《通知》），从7 个方面推出19条政策举措，将稳就业与稳企业、稳市场、稳预期紧密结合。《通知》明确，扩大稳岗扩 岗专项贷款支持范围，深化政银合作，优化业务流程，进一步提升贷款便利程度。提高相关企业失业保 险稳岗返还比例，中小 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the employment situation in China, highlighting that 6.95 million new urban jobs were created in the first half of the year, achieving 58% of the annual target [2] - The unemployment rate in June remained stable at 5.0%, the same as the previous year [2] - Various measures have been implemented to support employment, particularly for college graduates and young job seekers [3][4] Employment Policies and Measures - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (HRSS) has introduced multiple channels to expand job opportunities and enhance financial support for enterprises, including a reduction in unemployment insurance fees that saved over 90 billion yuan for companies [3] - A series of recruitment events have been organized, providing over 4.58 million job postings through initiatives like the "Hundred Days of Recruitment" [4] - The "Three Supports and One Assistance" program aims to send college graduates to rural areas for education, agriculture, and medical support, with a recruitment target of 34,400 individuals [5] Financial Support for Entrepreneurship - The HRSS is promoting entrepreneurship among young people by offering government-subsidized loans up to 300,000 yuan for eligible college graduates and up to 4 million yuan for small enterprises [5] - First-time entrepreneurs can also apply for a one-time startup subsidy [5] Skills Training Initiatives - A large-scale vocational skills training initiative has been launched, focusing on sectors like advanced manufacturing and digital economy, with a goal to enhance the skills of the workforce [7] - The HRSS is working on a mechanism to coordinate training resources and implement specialized training plans across various industries [7] Digitalization of Social Insurance Services - The HRSS is advancing the digitalization of social insurance services, with over 1.07 billion people enrolled in basic pension insurance and 245 million in unemployment insurance as of June [10] - The integration of artificial intelligence in social insurance management aims to improve service efficiency and accuracy, including the use of intelligent customer service systems and automated processing of claims [10][11]

Group 1: Employment Situation - In the first half of the year, 6.95 million new urban jobs were created, achieving 58% of the annual target [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security implemented multiple measures focusing on supporting enterprise development, enhancing employment support for key groups like college graduates, improving vocational training, and upgrading public employment services [1] - The unemployment insurance reduction saved enterprises over 90 billion yuan in labor costs, with 62 billion yuan allocated to 815,000 enterprises for job stabilization [1] Group 2: Consumer Market and Economic Growth - The "old for new" consumption policy has led to significant results, with over 66 million consumers purchasing more than 109 million units of 12 categories of home appliances [2] - The wholesale and retail industry added value reached 6.8 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, accounting for 10.3% of GDP [2] - The consumer traffic in urban markets showed steady growth, with monitored pedestrian street traffic and sales increasing by 5.2% and 3.4% respectively [2]

Employment Overview - In the first half of the year, 6.95 million new urban jobs were created, achieving 58% of the annual target [1] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in June was 5.0%, unchanged from the same period last year [1] Employment Stabilization Measures - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (HRSS) is focusing on four main areas to stabilize employment: supporting enterprise development, enhancing employment support for key groups like college graduates, improving vocational training effectiveness, and enhancing public employment services [1] - The reduction in unemployment insurance fees has saved enterprises over 90 billion yuan in labor costs, with 6.2 billion yuan allocated for job stabilization funds and 11.3 billion yuan for training and employment promotion [1] Focus on Youth Employment - The number of college graduates is expected to reach a record high of 12.22 million by 2025, with many recent graduates currently seeking employment [2] - HRSS is implementing targeted actions to assist unemployed graduates and youth, including providing a service list, job information, training opportunities, and personalized support [2] - A "1131" service model is being established, which includes at least one policy briefing, one career guidance session, three job recommendations, and one skills training or internship opportunity for job-seeking graduates [2]

新华社北京7月21日电 题：持续发力稳定就业大局 新华社记者刘夏村 就业，一头连着万家灯火，一头连着宏观大势。各部门加快推出稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举 措，各地强化就业优先导向，多措并举帮助企业应对困难挑战，增强可持续发展和吸纳就业能力……一 系列政策组合拳下，稳就业效果显现。但也要看到，当前内需扩大动能尚需增强，外部不稳定不确定因 素较多，青年、农民工等重点群体以及部分行业就业压力有所增加，稳就业仍需持续发力。 经营主体是经济发展的基石，是稳就业的基本盘。今年以来，系列惠企稳岗政策陆续推出，《关于进一 步加大稳就业政策支持力度的通知》明确扩大稳岗扩岗专项贷款支持范围、提高相关企业失业保险稳岗 返还比例、扩大社会保险补贴范围等一揽子政策。实践证明，抓好政策落地实施，持续释放政策红利， 将推动释放更大就业潜力。 促进高校毕业生等青年群体就业是重中之重。当前，高校毕业生已陆续离校，其中有的毕业生还未能落 实工作。对此各地采取了多种举措，如举办离校未就业高校毕业生招聘活动，实施高校毕业生等青年就 业创业行动计划，组织人社部门干部联系高校开展政策宣传、协助就业指导等，加大就业支持保障力 度。下一步，对青年群体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core View of the Report Domestic market optimism continues to ferment, and risk appetite continues to rise. Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields have declined, and global risk appetite has cooled. In China, economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as small metals, energy metals, and trade, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The economy grew higher than expected in H1, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policies may boost risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers have increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term high - level oscillations, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Last week, precious metals oscillated at high levels. Trump's tariff announcements and US economic data affected gold prices. The Fed's rate - cut expectations have slowed, and the US dollar's rise restricts the upside of gold prices. In the short term, gold is in a box - shaped oscillation range, while silver has a relatively strong technical - surface catch - up logic. In the medium and long term, the strategic allocation value of gold is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Apparent consumption declined, but steel futures and spot prices continued to be strong. The market expects policy support. Real - demand weakened, and supply decreased. Cost support is strong. Short - term, a slightly bullish oscillation is expected [2][5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices strengthened. Although it is the off - season for finished - product demand, high steel - mill profits led to a rebound in hot - metal production. After the end - of - quarter shipment rush, the shipping volume decreased. Short - term, a slightly bullish oscillation is expected [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreased. The production of some factories in Inner Mongolia resumed, and the开工 rate increased slightly. Short - term, prices may follow the rebound of coal prices [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract was in a range - bound pattern. Supply increased, and demand weakened. Profits declined. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is pressured by the supply - demand imbalance. Short - term, prices are supported [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract was in a range - bound pattern. Supply pressure increased during the off - season. The market expects production cuts due to the "anti - involution" policy. Demand remained weak, but profits increased. Short - term, prices are supported [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: US inflation rebounded, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations decreased. The upcoming stable - growth plan for the non - ferrous industry is positive. The key to copper prices lies in the tariff implementation time [11]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventories are still increasing. The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have weakened. Short - term, there is support at 20200 - 20300, but the price may decline after oscillation [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap - aluminum supply is tight, and production costs are rising. It is the off - season for demand. Short - term, prices may oscillate slightly upward, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is weak. Short - term, prices will oscillate, and the medium - term upside is restricted [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Futures and spot prices rose. Production increased, and social inventories continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, short - term, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures and spot prices rose. Production remained stable, and the number of open furnaces decreased. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward [14]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures and spot prices rose. The exchange's regulatory measures led to a decline on Friday, but the sector remains strong. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Short - term trading has slowed slightly, but the spot is still tight. The market is concerned about tariffs and OPEC+ production increases. Mid - term, prices will continue to oscillate [16]. - **Asphalt**: Prices followed crude - oil costs and oscillated strongly. Demand is average, and inventory accumulation may occur. Short - term, prices will follow the crude - oil center but oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: The supply is tight after the commissioning of downstream PTA plants. The price has rebounded slightly. Short - term, prices will oscillate slightly upward, but the upside is limited [16]. - **PTA**: The basis has declined, and trading volume has increased slightly. Demand is in the off - season, and processing fees are low. Short - term, prices will oscillate [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories have decreased slightly. Overseas plant outages and low import expectations have led to inventory reduction. Short - term, prices will oscillate [17]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices followed the polyester sector and oscillated weakly. Terminal orders are average, and inventories are high. Short - term, prices will continue to oscillate weakly [17]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, and demand has decreased. Inventories have risen, especially at ports. Short - term, prices will oscillate weakly [18][19]. - **PP**: Production is expected to increase, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventories are expected to accumulate. Short - term, prices will move downward [19]. - **LLDPE**: Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are rising. Short - term, prices may rebound slightly but with limited upside [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: High - temperature warnings in the US soybean - producing areas increase the risk of yield reduction. The market's concern about US soybean exports has eased. Short - term, prices may have a phased rebound [20]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: Soybean meal is the leading protein product. The futures price has strengthened, and the spot price has risen. Short - term, prices will oscillate at high levels [21]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil has a stable supply. Both are affected by palm oil. Short - term, prices will follow palm oil [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm - oil export tax will increase. Indian demand for replenishment exists. Short - term, the market is bullish, but the resistance to rising prices has increased [22][23].