多重逻辑催化迭代，光通信依旧是算力里最耀眼的环节。随着集群大型化持续发展，gpu 与光模块比例 从传统的1:3 向1:5 甚至更高升级，并同时伴随了800G 向1.6T 升级。与此同时，ASIC 的持续超预期， 其单卡能力较弱需要用更强的网络实现更好的集群性能，也拉动了光模块用量的大幅度提升。我们认为 多重逻辑的叠加是光模块在算力里具备阿尔法的重要条件，光模块依旧是算力里最耀眼的环节。 投资建议：考虑到总体需求量，公司客户结构和产品变化，结合公司长期以来在研发、供应链、保交付 等多方面的优势，以及对2026 年和2027 年的需求测算。我们上调公司业绩指引，我们预计公司2025- 2027 年归母净利润为95.4、217.0、311.7 亿元，对应PE 为43.7、19.2、13.4 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：AI 发展不及预期，竞争加剧，地缘政治影响等。 事件： 1 月30 日，公司发布2025 年度预告，预计2025 年实现归母净利润94-99 亿元，同比增长 231.2%-248.9%，主要受益于算力投资持续增长，高速率产品需求快速提升。报告期非经损益对净利润 影响约3300 万。 Q4 大超预 ...

2月9日晚间，中科曙光发布公告，宣布拟向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券，募集资金总额不超过80亿 元，分别投入面向人工智能的先进算力集群系统项目、下一代高性能AI训推一体机项目和国产化先进 存储系统项目，进一步巩固公司在高端计算与人工智能领域的布局。 对于本次发行的影响，中科曙光表示，公司将丰富产品矩阵，强化从硬件设备到软件平台、从基础设施 到运营服务的全栈能力，助力公司在智能算力、国产化存储等高附加值领域抢占市场先机。 值得一提的是，本次募资前，中科曙光已在算力领域持续发力。2月5日，公司提供的3套万卡超集群系 统在国家超算互联网郑州核心节点同时上线试运行，建成国内最大国产AI算力池，可覆盖万亿参数模 型训练等多类AI计算场景。 在AI爆发式增长的推动下，中科曙光的业绩也开始释放。2023年，公司营业总收入达143.53亿元，归母 净利润18.36亿元，经营活动现金流净额大幅增长212.02%；2024年，公司全年实现营业总收入131.48亿 元，归母净利润19.11亿元。2025年前三季度，实现营业收入88.2亿元，同比增长9.68%；归母净利润 9.66亿元，同比增长25.55%。 下一代高性能AI训推一 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at 9,656 points, down 47 points or 0.49% [1][5] - On a previous trading day, the market saw a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.76% to 27,027.16 points, and a total market turnover of HKD 255.14 billion [1][5] - The net inflow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 4.84 billion, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen Connects contributing HKD 2.83 billion and HKD 2.01 billion respectively [1][5] Key Companies and Performance - Notable gainers included Pop Mart, which rose by 5.76%, and Zijin Mining, which increased by 5.58%. China Ping An also saw a rise of 4.89% [1][5] - Conversely, China Telecom and Kuaishou saw declines of 2.96% and 2.74% respectively [1][5] - In the US market, tech stocks drove gains, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.9% to 23,238 points, and Nvidia and Broadcom showing strong performances with increases of 2.5% and 3.3% respectively [2] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "technological self-reliance" and AI applications as core themes for future developments in the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that leading companies in these sectors may benefit from long-term growth opportunities [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's recent policy guidance on building national computing power interconnectivity nodes is expected to boost domestic computing and communication sectors [3] - The report recommends focusing on sectors supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic consumption, such as sports apparel and non-essential services, as well as undervalued central state-owned enterprises with high dividend yields [3] Market Trends - The report indicates that both the Hong Kong and A-share markets started the year positively, with a net inflow of HKD 69 billion from southbound funds in January [3] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the Chinese medicine industry, driven by a new development plan aimed at enhancing the entire industry chain by 2030 [9]

市场此刻的逻辑很简单——钱往有肉的地方跑，往能直接受益于算力需求的芯片、设备、代工上游跑，而对那些需要长期巨额投入、商业模式尚未见底的企 业，则保持谨慎，这种资金偏好，导致科技板块内部分化愈发明显，也决定了下一阶段行情的主线是谁兜里有"真金白银"的算力供应商， 中概股当日普涨，并非无源之水，比特数字涨近20%，第九城市涨超15%，蔚来、理想、百度、金山云、小鹏等纷纷上扬，这既是海外资金对中国相关成长 板块情绪的回温，也是一个信号——当全球市场流动性与风险偏好同时抬头，估值被修复的标的会率先受益， 当地时间2月6日，美股迎来一次看得见摸得着的集体醒来，三大股指齐刷刷上扬，纳斯达克中国金龙指数也不含糊，涨了3.71%，报7808.54点；富时A50期 指夜盘续涨1.03%，报14960点，这不是偶然，而是市场在完成一次力量重估的瞬间， 道指大涨2.47%，一次性跨过五万点门槛，报50115.67点，标普500创下自去年五月以来最大单日涨幅，纳指也有2.18%的亮眼表现，这种集体上攻背后，是 科技股的普涨，是资金对"谁能真正赚钱、谁只是故事"的再判断， 英伟达带头冲锋，涨近8%，博通、台积电、特斯拉、美光等紧随其后 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a clear structural differentiation effect before the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% to 4122.34 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.02% to 14206.26 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.14% to 3328.02 points, while the STAR 50 Index rose 0.8% to 1469.82 points [1] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 13936.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 986 million yuan from the previous day, with over 2400 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The media sector continued to rise, with stocks like Reading Culture, Jiecheng Co., and Shanghai Film hitting the daily limit [1] - The dye sector remained active, with Haixiang Pharmaceutical achieving three consecutive limits and Huatai reaching the daily limit [1] - The PCB concept saw fluctuations, with Nanya New Materials and Honghe Technology both reaching historical highs [1] - The AI application sector continued to be a market highlight, with stocks like Rongxin Culture and Zhangyue Technology achieving two consecutive limits [1][2] AI and Computing Power - The computing power sector performed well, with stocks like Dazhi Technology achieving two consecutive limits and Tefa Information hitting the daily limit [2] - According to Guojin Securities, the underlying logic of global digitalization and intelligent transformation remains solid, with AI's industry penetration still having room for growth [2] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Evert rising over 10% [3] - The presence of intelligent enterprises at the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala has catalyzed interest in the robotics industry [3] Dye and Other Sectors - The dye sector continued its upward trend, with Jihua Group achieving two consecutive limits, indicating a recovery in some cyclical industries [4] New Listings and Market Sentiment - The photovoltaic and liquor sectors experienced adjustments, with stocks like Zeyun New Energy and Huangtai Liquor dropping over 7% [5] - The newly listed stock, Electric Blue Sky, surged 750% on its first day, with a market value approaching 140 billion yuan, driven by its high-tech attributes [5] Institutional Insights - CITIC Construction believes that the market will likely experience a mild oscillation before the holiday, with a "red envelope market" expected to continue [6] - Guoxin Securities noted that historical spring market trends often show a potential 20% increase, suggesting that the current market has room for growth [6] - Dongwu Securities indicated that the week before the holiday is an optimal window for index positioning, with historical data showing that large-cap stocks typically outperform small-cap stocks before the holiday [6]

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.41% to 4,123.09 points, and the ChiNext Index up 2.98% to 3,332.77 points, with a total trading volume of approximately 22.7 billion yuan[17] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.76% to 27,027.16 points, with major tech stocks rebounding, and total market turnover around 255.1 billion HKD[13] - European markets saw collective gains, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index up 0.7% and the DAX index rising 1.19% to 25,014.87 points, supported by positive economic data[11] Economic Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for Q1 highlights two key points: the impact of the longest Spring Festival holiday on consumption and policy direction from local two sessions[6] - Consumer recovery is characterized by a shift towards service alternatives, while commodity prices remain constrained by household balance sheet recovery[6] - The focus of policy has shifted from traditional infrastructure expansion to granular competition in sectors like low-altitude economy and computing power[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rose for two consecutive days, with NYMEX crude oil up 1.27% to $64.36 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[28] - The dollar index fell by 0.8%, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, which rose 1.3% to $5,050.9 per ounce[28] - The Japanese yen initially fell but later gained 0.9% against the dollar, closing at 155.88[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 10-year yield at 4.20%, down 0.4 basis points, while the 30-year yield rose by 0.7 basis points to 4.86%[31] - Asian credit markets showed a strong sentiment with overall spreads narrowing by 1-2 basis points, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Lunar New Year[31] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the technology sector led gains, with the Nasdaq up 0.9% and the S&P 500 rising 0.5%[11] - The AI sector showed a 40% quarter-over-quarter growth in annual recurring revenue, indicating a positive trend despite initial skepticism[24] - The white liquor sector is expected to perform better than market expectations during the Spring Festival, driven by strong consumer demand[20]

温晗静 中金公司科技硬件分析师: 那我是中金公司科技硬件组分析师温涵静，欢迎大家在每周日的晚上 8:30 来参加我们的 电子掘金会议。我们这周的主题，还是聚焦在两个方面吧。一方面是聚焦在大家比较关心 的，最近波动比较大的这个海外算力链。另一方面，可能更多的会聚焦在近期大家比较关 心的这个光模块，包括 CPU 的一些话题上。所以我们今天的汇报也会分成这两个部分。 那在第一个部分海外算力的部分，会由我和同事佳彤一起向各位汇报一下近期围绕算力定 的一些分歧。一方面我们看到海内外的这个模型其实是在加速发布的，不管是说海外的新 的这个模型，以及世界模型等等。 另外一方面，国内包括像，C 这其他的一些国内的这个外卖大战，包括所谓的这个 AI 的 变化还是比较多的。但是从另一方面来讲，我们看到上周的这个美股的市场也是有一个巨 幅的波动。那随着算力链的公司财报陆续发布，其实我们也看到了很多的这个 CSP 的资本 开支的继续上修。那在这样的一个分歧比较大的情况下，我们还是去聚焦在对海外算力链 的一个关注上，去汇报一下我们的基本的观点。首先从上周的整个的海外算力链的波动的 角度来看的话，目前我们看到大家没有一个一致的这个答案，可 ...

Core Insights - The emergence of SuperPods as a new AI computing infrastructure has become a focal point in the industry since 2025, with Huawei's Ascend 384 SuperPod leading the way in performance metrics compared to foreign competitors [1][3] - The demand for computing power is far from being met, with token consumption expected to exceed trillions daily in China, highlighting the inadequacy of simply stacking servers to address the computing gap [3][4] Group 1: SuperPod Characteristics - SuperPods are not merely about stacking chips; they represent a fundamental restructuring of traditional computing architectures, enabling equal interconnectivity among CPUs, NPUs, and memory units [4][6] - Key features of a true SuperPod include high bandwidth to eliminate communication delays, low latency, and the ability to form a logically unified system through unified memory addressing [6][7] Group 2: Efficiency and Performance - SuperPods can significantly enhance computing efficiency, with potential model utilization rates increasing from 30% to 45%, effectively a 50% improvement, which can help mitigate the limitations of chip manufacturing processes [7][8] - The architecture of SuperPods differs from traditional systems, as Huawei employs optical communication technology, allowing for greater scalability and interconnectivity compared to NVIDIA's copper-based systems [8][9] Group 3: Innovation and Ecosystem - Huawei's systematic innovation in chip design, optical components, and foundational protocols has positioned it uniquely in the market, leveraging over 20 years of experience in optical technology [9][12] - The company is also developing general computing SuperPods, with the TaiShan 950 SuperPod set to launch in Q1 2026, aimed at replacing various server applications [11][12] Group 4: Software and Community Engagement - The success of SuperPods relies not only on hardware but also on a robust software ecosystem, including open-source initiatives like CANN and openEuler, which are crucial for fostering industry collaboration [14] - Huawei has engaged a large developer community, with 3.8 million registered developers for Kunpeng and nearly 4 million for Ascend, emphasizing the importance of open-source collaboration in the AI era [14]

Core Viewpoint - The AI sector, particularly in the context of the ChiNext board, is experiencing significant activity with notable gains in AI application stocks and a strong performance from the ChiNext AI ETF, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext AI application stocks are leading the gains, with Chinese Online rising over 14% and Guotou Intelligent increasing by over 10% [1][3]. - IDC computing leasing stocks are also seeing upward movement, with companies like Guanghuan Xinnet, Aofei Data, and Wangsu Technology rising by more than 3% [1][3]. - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) is experiencing active trading, with a real-time transaction volume exceeding 350 million CNY and 26 million shares being bought [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The launch of ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 video generation model is generating significant interest in the AI industry, with expectations for its application in AI short dramas and other content [2][8]. - Open-source securities suggest that Seedance 2.0 could mark a pivotal moment for AI in film, recommending continued investment in multi-modal AI applications [2][8]. - Zhongyin Securities believes that Seedance 2.0 will stimulate the AI multi-modal industry chain, potentially leading to a rebound in AI applications [3][8]. - The transition from computing power construction to application implementation is highlighted, with the ChiNext AI ETF positioned to benefit from the commercialization of AI technology [3][8].

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, driven by positive sentiment from overseas markets and significant gains in technology stocks, particularly in the photovoltaic sector and AI applications [3][9] - Despite the current market enthusiasm, the sustainability of these trends is uncertain, indicating potential volatility in the post-holiday period [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural opportunities, suggesting that investors should actively seek quality stocks during market fluctuations before the holiday and consider small-cap growth stocks with clear industrial catalysts afterward [3][9] Market Overview - On the first trading day of the last week before the Spring Festival, the A-share market opened strongly, with the ChiNext Index rising over 3% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by more than 2% [4] - The trading volume for the day reached 22,495 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4123.09 points, up 1.41% [5] - Various sectors performed well, including cultural media, photovoltaic equipment, and software development, while sectors like mining saw declines [4][5] Sector Analysis - The AI theme has been particularly active, with significant gains in AI-related stocks such as AI corpus and ChatGPT, indicating a strong performance outlook for the sector in 2026 [6] - The report highlights that the AI sector is transitioning from computational investment to application and end-side deployment, creating new investment opportunities in areas like computing power and AI applications [6] - The renewable energy sector, particularly photovoltaic equipment and batteries, is also gaining momentum, supported by ongoing global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality and favorable government policies [7] Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the A-share market is entering a substantive phase of the Spring Festival rally, supported by economic resilience and industry benefits, despite potential short-term fluctuations [3][9] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities and to be cautious of high-valuation stocks lacking performance support, as the market may shift from broad-based gains to structural differentiation [6][7]