作者：袁闯，财信证券首席经济学家 1月19日，国家统计局发布数据显示，初步核算，2025年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算， 比上年增长5.0%。从环比增速来看，一季度GDP环比增长1.2%，二季度增长1.0%，三季度增长1.1%， 四季度增长1.2%。整体来看，全年经济运行节奏大体平稳，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十 四五"胜利收官，结构上继续向新向优。 内需方面，经济自发复苏动能仍待巩固。拆分投资因素来看，鉴于"反内卷"政策可能拖累部分制造业投 资、房价偏弱仍将制约房地产投资、财政政策继续支撑基建投资，预计2026年固定资产投资增速可能有 限回升。拆分消费因素来看，2026年预计"股市财富效应"对消费仍将发挥一定贡献，"收入效应"对消费 仍有一定制约作用，但伴随着切实改善民生、提升民众福祉，使消费行为从政策驱动转为自觉、可持续 的内生性增长，2026年消费将延续温和复苏态势。 外需方面，虽然2025年"抢出口"行为可能对2026年实际出口有一定"透支效应"，但在光伏等产品出口退 税政策调整、中美关税摩擦"烈度"降级、全球经济仍有韧性、中国出口企业竞争力提升等共同支撑下， 预计2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ghana's economy continues to show strong growth momentum, with a projected year-on-year growth of 3.8% in October 2025, primarily driven by the services sector [1] Economic Growth Indicators - The monthly economic growth indicators reveal that agriculture grew by 0.9%, industry by 3%, and services by 5.5% [1] - The composite economic activity growth index for the three sectors stands at 112.7, up from 108.6 in the same period last year [1] Sector Contributions - The growth in the services sector is mainly driven by telecommunications, wholesale, and retail trade [1] - Industrial growth is primarily supported by the manufacturing sector [1] - Agricultural growth is largely attributed to the fisheries sector [1] Future Outlook and Recommendations - The sustained upward trend indicates that Ghana's economy is likely to maintain positive growth, especially in the services and industrial sectors [1] - The statistical office encourages the government to continue enhancing industrial productivity and value addition while addressing structural challenges in the agricultural sector to improve its resilience [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the euro against the dollar is experiencing limited volatility and a neutral to bearish trend, with short-term momentum significantly weakened [1] - The euro had previously rebounded strongly after a significant pullback, breaking through a key psychological level, but showed signs of weakness as it briefly dipped below a core long-term moving average [1] - The recent decline of the dollar has been a crucial factor in the euro's rebound, driven by market assessments of geopolitical tensions and a risk-off sentiment towards the dollar [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance provides potential support for the dollar, with Chairman Powell signaling no urgent need for continued easing despite a rate cut in December [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its interest rates and shifted its policy stance towards maintaining the current position, ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in the near term [2] - Recent positive economic data from the Eurozone has stabilized market sentiment, with growth slightly exceeding expectations and domestic demand effectively countering manufacturing weaknesses [2][3] Group 3 - Inflation is expected to decline below target in the next two years due to easing energy price pressures, but service sector inflation may remain sticky due to lagging wage growth [3] - The ECB's policy will be based on data-driven assessments, with the current market pricing reflecting only a slight possibility of rate cuts this year [3] - The technical outlook for the euro against the dollar indicates that the core long-term moving average remains a critical support level, with potential for deeper corrections if breached [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting January 2025, escalating to 145% by April, targeting electronics, automobiles, and chemicals [1] - Despite a 20% decline in exports to the U.S. and a 14.6% drop in imports, China's total trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion, indicating a shift in export markets to Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East [3][5] - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.4%, 4.8%, and 4.5%, with exports contributing nearly one-third and consumption accounting for 52% [5] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49, indicating contraction, with significant fluctuations in factory orders, particularly in industries heavily reliant on the U.S. [8] - The real estate market is lagging, consumer recovery is slow, and new bank loans decreased by 10%, the lowest since 2018, reflecting weak corporate borrowing demand [8] - China is actively expanding its market through the Belt and Road Initiative, with exports to Southeast Asia and Africa increasing by 15% and 20% respectively, compensating for the loss of U.S. market share [8] Group 3 - The U.S. faces its own challenges, including high debt levels and inflation pressures, with many companies struggling due to lost market share in China [10] - In November 2025, the U.S. and China reached a partial trade consensus, with the U.S. moderately lowering tariffs on some Chinese goods in exchange for stable supplies of strategic resources [10] - China's increased investment in R&D, particularly in the semiconductor sector, is enhancing its technological self-sufficiency, while U.S. tech companies are losing market share due to restrictions [10]

基本面来看，英国经济表现超预期为英镑提供了坚实支撑。2025年英国经济增长水平稳居G7前列，年 初机构普遍下调预期，而英国商会(BCC)已将全年增速预期从0.9%上调至1.4%，英国央行更是上调至 1.5%，经合组织(OECD)预计其增速1.4%，仅次于美国。经济基本面的韧性，叠加英国央行相对鹰派的 货币政策立场，成为英镑强势的核心逻辑——2025年12月英国央行议息会议上，货币委员会成员就降息 表决呈现5:4的胶着态势，即便最终降息25个基点，鹰派态度仍对英镑构成有力支撑，推动汇价逆势走 强。 央行政策分化预期进一步强化英镑的利差优势。IMF及高盛等机构预测，2026年主要央行货币政策将呈 现显著分化，英国央行预计全年降息75个基点，而美联储预计降息50个基点，欧元区则大概率维持利率 不变。尽管英国央行存在降息空间，但截至2026年底，英国基准利率预计仍将维持在3.25%左右，在G7 国家中处于高位，利差逻辑下英镑对资金的吸引力有望持续凸显。不过需注意，市场对英国央行降息节 奏存在分歧，若后续通胀回落超预期或经济增速放缓，可能引发降息预期升温，进而压制英镑走势。 技术面分析，英镑兑美元当前处于2025年以来 ...

工业生产方面，2025年，阿工业产值为631亿马纳特（约合371亿美元），同比下降1.0%，非油气工业 产值同比增长5.5%。 新华财经巴库1月19日电（记者刘书辰）阿塞拜疆国家统计委员会19日发布的初步数据显示，2025年， 阿国内生产总值为1291亿马纳特（约合759亿美元），较2024年增长1.4%。其中，非油气行业产值达 923亿马纳特（约合543亿美元），同比增长2.7%。 固定资产投资方面，2025年，阿固定资产投资为212亿马纳特（约合125亿美元），同比下降5.6%。其 中，非油气领域投资下降3.9%。 对外贸易方面，2025年1月至11月，阿外贸额为438亿美元，同比增长2.4%。其中，进口额为212亿美 元，同比增长12.9%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

西班牙《国家报》 1 月 14 日文章，原题：拉丁美洲的增长、委内瑞拉以及企业家的角色 拉美地区必须经 历范式转变才能取得进步，传统的企业家形象将被更具活力和创造性的概念——创新型企业家所取代。 2026 拉美经济前景呈两面性 二战结束后，经济学家开始寻找"经济增长"的公式。自那时起，追求更高的经济增长已成为各国政府的 一项重要任务，也决定着政府本身的成败。这是政界人士为数不多的共识之一：追求增长，越多越好。 拉丁美洲也必须实现强劲增长。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）在其2025年10月发布的《世界经济展望》中预测，如果利率正常化、通胀下 降且大宗商品价格提振，2025年，拉丁美洲的经济增长接近2.5%。IMF预计，到2026年，拉丁美洲的经 济增长将达到2.3%，较2025年略有放缓，区域增长不平衡，财政和贸易挑战依然存在，尽管通胀正在 下降。 实现可持续增长，意味着利益相关者（政府、企业和工会）必须就经济的坚实基础达成共识。为此，必 须拥有强大的机构、稳定的监管框架和法律确定性，以此作为推动长期增长的基础。这需要政府向中小 企业和数字基础设施加大投资力度，促进创新和竞争，实现出口多元化，达成宏观经济稳定。拉 ...

2025年1月至12月，吉尔吉斯斯坦工业产品产量同比增长10.6%，建筑总产值增长21.1%，批发零售业增 长17.8%，农业、林业和渔业增长2.2%，酒店和餐饮服务业增幅达14.3%，货运量较前一年提升12.2%。 2025年1月至11月，吉尔吉斯斯坦对外贸易额超过140亿美元，同比下降12.2%。其中，出口减少 43.5%，进口增长0.5%。 新华财经比什凯克1月19日电（记者江宥林）吉尔吉斯斯坦国家统计委员会19日发布数据显示，据初步 估算，2025年，吉国内生产总值为19764亿索姆（约合226亿美元），较2024年增长11.1%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 据吉国家统计委员会消息，过去一年，吉经济增长由商品生产行业、服务业和产品净税收带动。其中， 商品生产行业和服务业均同比增长10.9%，分别占吉国内生产总值34.4%和51.2%；产品净税收增长 12.1%，占吉经济比重14.4%。 ...

报告说，据初步计算，2025年白俄罗斯GDP为2867亿白卢布（约合989亿美元）。此外，2025年白俄罗 斯GDP平减指数是2024年的111%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经明斯克1月19日电（记者陈汀）白俄罗斯国家统计委员会19日发布报告说，该国2025年国内生 产总值（GDP）增长1.3%。 白俄罗斯经济部长切博塔里日前接受媒体采访时表示，2025年白俄罗斯国内生产总值创历史新高。他表 示，尽管全球动荡不安，国家经济面临制裁压力和供应链中断等因素带来的诸多挑战，过去五年来白俄 罗斯经济取得良好成果，主要体现在经济增长、民生福祉提升以及公民生活质量改善。 ...

Economic Growth - The economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, with significant contributions from external demand[1] - In Q4 2025, GDP is expected to grow by 4.5% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive quarters[1] - Net exports are expected to contribute 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from 2024[1] Nominal GDP and Price Index - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to slow down, with a year-on-year increase of 4% in 2025, down from 2024[1] - The GDP deflator is projected to decrease by 1% year-on-year, indicating deflationary pressures[1] - In Q4 2025, nominal GDP is expected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year, a slight recovery from Q3's 3.7%[1] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - Industrial output is expected to grow by 5.2% year-on-year in December, up from 4.8% in November[2] - The service sector production index is projected to increase by 5% year-on-year in December, compared to 4.2% in November[2] Retail and Consumer Confidence - Retail sales are expected to grow by 3.7% year-on-year in 2025, a slight increase from 3.5% in 2024[2] - The consumer confidence index is anticipated to rise to 90.3 in November, indicating improved consumer sentiment[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 3.8% in 2025, with a significant drop of 15.1% year-on-year in December[3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to decrease by 16%, manufacturing investment by 10.6%, and real estate investment by 35.8%[3] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing is expected to decline by 8.7% year-on-year in 2025, with sales revenue down by 12.6%[3] - Real estate prices in 70 major cities are expected to continue their downward trend, with no signs of stabilization by year-end[3]