美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大 出口创疫情以来最大降幅 金十数据6月26日讯，美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大，出口出现自疫情爆发以来的最大降幅，进口几乎 没有变化。美国商务部数据显示，商品贸易逆差增长11.1%，至966亿美元，高于市场预期。商品出口 下降5.2%，至1792亿美元，原油等工业供应品的出货量急剧下降。进口几乎没有变化，为2758亿美 元。贸易逆差扩大表明，贸易对第二季度经济增长的贡献可能低于最初的预期。一季度GDP报告还凸显 贸易与库存影响的脱钩。通常情况下，进口商品会进入仓库或直供商店，在GDP账户中形成至少部分抵 消效应。但库存当季为GDP贡献2.59个百分点，远不足以弥补贸易平衡恶化。 ...

Economic Performance - Recent data shows a significant rebound in consumption growth, with the service production index accelerating and urban unemployment rate declining, indicating strong resilience and vitality in China's economy [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate could reach 5.2% in the first half of the year, with potential for upward revision, reflecting optimism about economic resilience [3] - In May, China's retail sales growth surged to 6.4%, marking the highest level for the year [3] Policy Support - The People's Bank of China and six departments issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, focusing on enhancing macroeconomic financial foundations and optimizing insurance guarantees [5] - The implementation of these measures is expected to unleash consumption potential and promote healthy economic development [5] Real Estate Market - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange proposed to lift restrictions on foreign capital investment in non-self-use residential properties, indicating a potential influx of foreign investment into China's real estate market [7] - Despite the easing of restrictions, the actual inflow of foreign capital will depend on various influencing factors [7] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a continued downturn in the housing market until 2035, while Morgan Stanley suggests the market is beginning to stabilize, with expectations of differentiation in the future [7] Future Outlook - Current economic conditions are deemed more important than future predictions, with the belief that effective policy implementation will lead to steady economic growth and gradual resolution of real estate issues [9]

SHMET 网讯： 征稿(作者：弘业期货 张天骜）--在经过长期的博弈和多轮谈判后，目前关税问题仍未有明显进展。中 美临时保持10%关税至8月10日，而美国对其他国家保持10%临时关税至7月9日。未来关税问题仍是影 响全球经济增长的最主要因素，存在较大的不确定性。 一、行情回顾 （一）一季度有色金属走势偏强 2025年国际宏观环境风云突变，大宗商品市场波动较大。一季度市场受到美联储降息预期和中国经济温 和反弹的支撑，市场整体走势偏强。汇率方面，美元持续大跌，人民币小幅上涨。在外部形势恶化的压 力下，中国保持政策定力。在并未实施大规模经济刺激的情况下，经济数据稳中有升，给市场带来的更 好的预期。一季度，国内工业品和农产品多数震荡走高。 （二）关税影响，4月初有色金属大跌后持续反弹 进入4月后，美国对等关税政策对市场造成巨大冲击，市场情绪急转直下。避险情绪推动，工业品全面 暴跌，农产品大涨。但很快美国宣布将对等关税推迟90日执行，同时与各国逐步展开贸易谈判，市场情 绪明显好转。因此，4月初大跌后，有色金属震荡反弹，目前回到4月初价格附近。 二、宏观基本面情况 （一）关税仍是最大变数 4月3日，美国公布对等关税计划 ...

文/国务院发展研究中心研究员 张立群 经 济 增 长 过 程 也 是 总 供 给与 总 需 求 紧密 联系 、 互为 条 件 、 矛 盾 运 动 的 过 程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失 衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的失衡；增速 过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。当前我国经 济增速已偏离合理区间较多，供大于求的宏观经济总量失衡较为严重。市 场引导的需求收缩力度已很大 合理经济增长率与宏观经济总量平衡 经济增长过程也是总供给与总需求紧密联系、互为条件、矛盾运动的过程。如果经济增速偏离合理区间 过高或过低，就会表现为宏观经济总量失衡（增速过高，表现为总量供不应求、通货膨胀和经济过热的 失衡；增速过低，表现为总量供大于求、通货紧缩和经济衰退的失衡）。 在市场调节条件下，供求总量失衡和经济增速偏离合理区间后会出现自我加速趋势。市场供求调节机制 会使宏观经济总量失衡持续加剧，使经济增速加快偏离合理区间，这也表现为经济增长的大起大落。对 市场机制可能引发的这一严重问题，必须依靠政府的科学宏观调控，必须及时加强宏观政策逆周期调 节，及时扭转市场引导 ...

自特朗普就任美国总统以来，短短不到半年时间，他已经给原本就充满不确定性的局势又增添了许多变数，他那种反复无常的行事风格，让人无从预料他 明天又会搞出什么事来。他一会儿挥舞关税的大棒，把世界各国都轮番敲打一遍，一会儿又大张旗鼓地驱逐"非法移民"，指责他们抢了美国人的工作机 会。当然，那都是为了提振经济，但问题是，他这样能达成这一目的吗？ 答案恐怕是否定的。 他的种种做法，说到底其实是"把内部问题外部化"，把外部群体（无论是外国，还是移民）看作是美国自身问题的替罪羊，但这并不能解决美国经济自身 的问题。特朗普说的"让美国再次伟大"（Make America Great Again，MAGA），大体上是指"回到半个多世纪前充分就业的好日子"，但且不说那样的日子 已经回不去了，他看来也没明白那些"好日子"究竟是怎么来的。那靠的不是跟别人抢蛋糕，而是自己把蛋糕做大。 罗伯特·戈登在《美国增长的起落》一书中雄辩地证明：美国经济的强大驱动力是来自内部而非外部的，尤其是不断颠覆的创新，因为"持续的经济增长需 要持续的创新流"，他断言："劳动生产率的较快增长都源于更快的创新和技术进步。" 1 然而，这种增长在不同时代并非匀速前 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the potential impact of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration on inflation and economic stability, as articulated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during a Senate hearing [2] - Powell indicated that while tariffs might cause a one-time increase in prices, the long-term inflation risks should not be overlooked, emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach to maintain price stability and economic health [2] - The actual impact of tariffs on prices could exceed expectations, depending on the scale, implementation, and market reactions, suggesting that the Federal Reserve must manage these risks carefully [2] Group 2 - In the gold market, prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the current price at $3331.27 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The gold price opened at $3332.09 per ounce, reaching a high of $3339.76 and a low of $3328.99 during the trading session [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to face resistance below $3342.00 and support above $3311.00, with potential targets for downward movement set between $3316.00 and $3301.00 [3]

国家发改委：有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低 推动经济持续健康发展 智通财经6月26日电，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超在6月份新闻发布会上表示，当前，外部环 境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性有所增加，全球经贸稳定增长面临挑战，这些都会影响我经济平稳运 行。但更要看到，近期世界银行、经合组织（OECD）分别将全球经济增长预测下调0.4个和0.2个百分 点，而对中国经济增长预测维持总体稳定，德意志银行、摩根士丹利、高盛等国际投行纷纷上调我国经 济预测。随着存量政策加快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施，我们有信心、有能力把外部冲击的 不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推动经济持续健康发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. State Department issued a travel warning for India, highlighting safety concerns, particularly for women travelers, and suggesting that the warning reflects broader issues regarding India's safety and international standing [1][4][5]. Group 1: Travel Warning Details - The travel warning emphasizes the prevalence of violent crimes, including sexual assault, in India, particularly in tourist areas [1]. - It advises U.S. citizens to avoid certain regions, such as Jammu and Kashmir, due to terrorism and civil unrest risks [1]. - The warning also includes specific legal advice regarding the carrying of electronic devices, which could lead to severe penalties [1]. Group 2: Indian Government Response - Indian officials have criticized the U.S. warning as an insult to the country, suggesting it undermines India's international reputation [3][4]. - The former Deputy Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh interpreted the warning as a direct attack on the Modi government's ability to maintain law and order [4]. - Some Indian officials argue that the U.S. is motivated by jealousy over India's economic growth and should focus on its domestic issues instead [4]. Group 3: Tourism Industry Insights - India is becoming a popular global tourist destination, with projections indicating significant contributions to the economy from tourism in the coming years [4]. - The World Travel and Tourism Council forecasts that tourism will contribute approximately 21.15 trillion Indian Rupees (about 1.76 trillion RMB) to India's economy in 2024, marking a 21% increase from 2019 [4]. - International tourist spending is expected to rise over 17%, reaching 2.85 trillion Indian Rupees (approximately 237.75 billion RMB) [4]. Group 4: Safety Concerns for Tourists - Safety issues, particularly for female travelers, remain a significant concern, with numerous international advisories warning against travel to India [5]. - Data from the National Crime Records Bureau indicates a troubling increase in reported rape cases in India, with over 31,516 cases recorded in 2023 alone [5]. - A 2018 survey identified India as one of the most dangerous countries for women, further complicating its tourism appeal [5].

在多位美联储官员发表"鸽派"讲话后，美债市场交易员正加速押注10年期美债收益率将跌至4%。 美联储的降息路径突生变数。 在美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会听证会后，华尔街对美联储的降息预期出现了重大转变。据最新消息，摩根士丹 利预计美联储将在2026年七次降息，从3月开始，最终利率料达到2.5%～2.75%。 目前掉期市场预计，美联储7月降息概率从接近0的水平提升至40%，预计今年剩余四次会议的总降息幅度也从 一周前的45个基点升至60个基点。 据德意志银行的最新报告，当前美联储内部的分歧程度已创下十年新高，这是因为美联储官员们在如何平衡通 胀控制与经济增长之间存在根本性分歧。分析称，这使得美联储未来的降息路径存在较大的变数。 交易员大举押注 最新数据显示，仅在上周五和周一两日，交易员就投入至少3800万美元，购买8月到期的10年期美债看涨期 权，押注收益率从当前约4.3%降至4%，这也是今年4月以来的最低水平。 近日，美联储理事沃勒、美联储副主席鲍曼陆续表态，暗示最早可能在7月降息。鲍威尔在周二的国会听证会 上也表示，不排除7月降息的可能。 鲍威尔还表示，数据表明，至少某些行业的关税将冲击到美国消费者。他说："在6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts have intensified, with mixed signals from officials about the timing and necessity of potential rate cuts in July, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed officials Bowman and Waller have indicated that a rate cut could be considered as early as July, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and the need to support economic growth [2][3]. - Waller believes that the labor market's weakness may justify a July rate cut, while Bowman supports a cut if inflation continues to decline [2][3]. - Other officials, such as Barr and Williams, express caution, highlighting the potential for tariffs to exert upward pressure on inflation and suggesting that the Fed should wait for further economic developments before acting [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic data shows that inflation has remained moderate, but there are concerns that core prices may rebound in the second half of the year, alongside a slight increase in unemployment rates [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that significant triggers for a rate cut could include rapid deterioration in consumer and employment data, as well as risks in corporate bonds [5][6]. - The economic growth forecast for the U.S. is projected to slow to around 1% this year, with inflation expected to rise to 3% [11][12]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Market expectations for a July rate cut are polarized, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a forecast for two cuts this year, while Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast to one cut due to tariff risks [14]. - The potential impact of tariffs on GDP growth and inflation is significant, with estimates suggesting a 2.2% decline in GDP growth by 2025 if tariffs are fully implemented [14]. - The ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed may complicate the decision-making process, forcing the Fed into a challenging position regarding rate cuts and inflation management [6][14].