本文字数：702，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻报道，5月4日至5日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜率团赴意大利米兰出席东盟与中日韩 （10+3）财长和央行行长会，并作为10+3财金合作机制联合主席主持相关讨论，与会议各方就美关 税政策对全球和区域宏观经济形势造成的影响、完善清迈倡议多边化（CMIM）机制和10+3宏观经 济研究办公室（AMRO）等议题深入交换了意见，并推动各方在深化区域内政策协调和加强区域金 融安全网等领域达成一系列共识。 会议一致通过了在清迈倡议多边化下新设以人民币等可自由使用 货币出资的快速融资工具相关安排，并明确了清迈倡议机制化下一步讨论方向。 2025.05. 05 中日韩三方同期举行了财长和央行行长会，就经济形势和区域内财金合作交流意见。潘功胜 呼吁区 域国家团结一致应对美关税冲击，介绍了中方相关宏观经济政策。 潘功胜还在会间与日本财长加藤 正信、韩国央行行长李昌镛、马来西亚央行行长拉希德进行双边会谈，就全球不确定性对各国影响交 换了意见。 微信编辑 | 七三 多地宣布发钱奖励结婚！ 潘功胜指出，当前单边主义正冲击以规则为基础的多边经贸体系和国际治理体系，全球经济不确定性 上升，10+3区 ...

中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席并主持东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会 责编：叶舒筠 校对： 吕久彪 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 2025年5月4日至5日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜率团赴意大利米兰出席东盟与中日韩（10+3）财长和央行行长 会，并作为10+3财金合作机制联合主席主持相关讨论，与会议各方就美关税政策对全球和区域宏观经济形势 造成的影响、完善清迈倡议多边化（CMIM）机制和10+3宏观经济研究办公室（AMRO）等议题深入交换了意 见，并推动各方在深化区域内政策协调和加强区域金融安全网等领域达成一系列共识。会议一致通过了在清迈 倡议多边化下新设以人民币等可自由使用货币出资的快速融资工具相关安排，并明确了清迈倡议机制化下一步 讨论方向。 潘功胜指出，当前单边主义正冲击以规则为基础的多边经贸体系和国际治理体系，全球经济不确定性上升， 10+3区域面临的经济和金融风险亦显著上升。在此背景下，进一步完善清迈倡议机制、强化本区域金融安全 网至关重要。引 ...

中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席并主持东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会 中日韩三方同期举行了财长和央行行长会，就经济形势和区域内财金合作交流意见。潘功胜呼吁区域国家团结 一致应对美关税冲击，介绍了中方相关宏观经济政策。潘功胜还在会间与日本财长加藤正信、韩国央行行长李 昌镛、马来西亚央行行长拉希德进行双边会谈，就全球不确定性对各国影响交换了意见。 会后，中国和马来西亚作为2025年10+3联合主席召开了联合记者会，潘功胜代表中国人民银行介绍了会议达 成的合作成果。 2025年5月4日至5日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜率团赴意大利米兰出席东盟与中日韩（10+3）财长和央行行长 会，并作为10+3财金合作机制联合主席主持相关讨论，与会议各方就美关税政策对全球和区域宏观经济形势 造成的影响、完善清迈倡议多边化（CMIM）机制和10+3宏观经济研究办公室（AMRO）等议题深入交换了意 见，并推动各方在深化区域内政策协调和加强区域金融安全网等领域达成一系列共识。会议一致通过了在清迈 倡议多边化下新设以人民币等可自由使用货币出资的快速融资工具相关安排，并明确了清迈倡议机制化下一步 讨论方向。 潘功胜指出，当前单边主义正冲击以规则为基础的 ...

Group 1 - The US government is considering multiple tariff proposals against China, with potential rates ranging from 50% to 100% depending on the classification of goods [3] - The International Monetary Fund has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, citing the negative impact of the tariff war on global trade and the multilateral trade system [3] - The US Treasury Secretary described the current situation as a trade embargo, indicating that negotiations for a comprehensive agreement with China have not yet begun [4] Group 2 - The US debt subscription rate has hit a historical low, with countries like China, Brazil, and Japan reducing their holdings of US debt, indicating a shift towards a multipolar currency system [6] - The imposition of high tariffs is expected to lead to reduced US import demand, which could shrink tariff revenue and increase inflation risks domestically [8] - The "America First" policy has severely damaged the credibility of the US, leading to significant protests and market volatility [8]

整体来看，尽管短期需警惕技术性回调风险，但多重宏观因子仍支撑黄金长期走牛：美元指数中枢下 移、全球滞胀风险升温、央行购金常态化形成三重复合驱动，黄金作为避险资产和财富保值的价值凸 显。 2025年开年以来，国际黄金市场呈现持续走强态势，领跑全球大类资产。虽然4月3日受美国加征关税政 策冲击，黄金价格随全球风险资产同步下挫，但其凭借优异的流动性优势率先实现V型反弹。4月22日 盘中更创下3500美元/盎司历史新高，成功突破关键整数阻力位。 多重因素推动之下，黄金成为资本投资的较优选择，在投资者的争相追逐中表现亮眼。本轮黄金上涨的 核心驱动要素包括：1、信用体系重构：特朗普政府重启关税政策引发美元资产抛售潮，美股、美债及 美元指数同步承压。美联储政策独立性遭受质疑，全球货币体系稳定性降低，黄金作为终极信用对冲工 具的价值凸显。2、地缘政治溢价：俄乌冲突常态化与美伊核谈判僵局形成双重风险敞口，叠加中东局 势持续紧张，避险需求维持高位运行。3、央行储备多元化：Q1全球央行黄金净购入量达224吨，中俄 等新兴经济体增持规模同比激增38%，机构配置需求形成强力支撑。 中期维度来看，后市黄金依然处于上涨通道，首先，全球去美 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the dollar system due to the spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the weaponization of the dollar, and significant changes in the global economic landscape [1][2][8] - The Milan Report proposes the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" as a strategy for the U.S. to reshape the global economic order through dollar depreciation, debt restructuring, and trade confrontation [2][4] - The dollar's status as the dominant reserve currency is linked to U.S. financial control, which is maintained through military alliances and economic strategies [3][6] Group 2 - The dollar's financial control manifests in three key areas: international pricing power, financial sanctions, and crisis transfer [4][5] - The U.S. has leveraged its financial control to impose sanctions, as seen in the Ukraine crisis, which has raised concerns about the safety of dollar assets and accelerated the process of "de-dollarization" [10][11] - The "Triffin Dilemma" poses a structural challenge to the dollar system, where the need for liquidity through U.S. deficits undermines the dollar's credibility [7][12] Group 3 - The article highlights the impact of the dollar's hegemony on global financial stability, emphasizing that the current U.S. policies may exacerbate internal contradictions within the dollar system [8][9] - The spillover effects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have led to global financial cycles, with significant repercussions for emerging markets [9] - The weaponization of the dollar has contributed to the fragmentation of the global financial system, prompting countries to seek alternative payment mechanisms [10][11] Group 4 - The article suggests that the U.S. strategy of "debt monetization" could undermine global financial stability, as proposed in the Milan Report [12][13] - The potential implementation of long-term zero-coupon bonds could lead to a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasury securities, impacting global markets [12][13] - The need for a diversified international monetary system is emphasized, with recommendations for enhancing the use of the renminbi in global trade [13][14] Group 5 - The article advocates for the construction of a new international monetary order based on the concept of a "community of shared future for mankind," promoting cooperation among countries [16] - It highlights the importance of regional financial cooperation and the establishment of a multilateral currency settlement system to reduce reliance on third-party currencies [16] - The development of a digital currency payment system is seen as a crucial step towards reforming the international payment system and enhancing the renminbi's role [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the US dollar is experiencing a technical correction, with the current trade-weighted dollar index showing a 5% decline from its peak, yet still above long-term equilibrium levels by nearly two standard deviations, suggesting ongoing valuation correction pressure [1][3] - Historical patterns reveal that when the dollar's real effective exchange rate exceeds two standard deviations above the mean, it often leads to a deep adjustment cycle of 25%-30%, indicating significant devaluation pressures beyond conventional monetary policy [3] - The IMF forecasts that by 2025, the GDP growth rate differential between the US and the Eurozone will narrow to 0.8 percentage points, the smallest gap since 2019, reflecting a convergence of economic advantages [3] Group 2 - The political cycle and institutional risks are resonating, with the policy uncertainty index for the election year reaching 87.6, close to levels seen before Trump's first election in 2016, which undermines the credibility of the dollar as a global safe haven [3] - The diversification of global central bank foreign exchange reserves is accelerating, with the dollar's share dropping to 58.9%, the lowest in 28 years, indicating a fundamental challenge to the dollar's dominance in the global monetary system [3] - Technical analysis shows a typical topping pattern, with short-term resistance concentrated in the 99.40-99.45 range, and support levels identified at 98.95-99.00 and 98.70-98.75, suggesting potential trading strategies within these ranges [4]

Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Dominance - The fate of currencies is closely tied to the rise and fall of nations, with the British pound being a pillar of global trade in the 19th century due to the Industrial Revolution [1] - The British pound's decline began after the Napoleonic Wars, leading to a suspension of the gold standard in 1815, and further weakened by World War I and economic downturns [3] - The Bretton Woods Conference in 1944 established the dollar as the world's reserve currency, pegged to gold at $35 per ounce, allowing other currencies to link to the dollar [5] Group 2: Current Status of the Dollar - As of Q3 2024, the dollar accounts for 57.39% of global foreign exchange reserves, significantly ahead of the euro at 20.02%, indicating its continued dominance in international trade and finance [12] - However, there are emerging risks as countries like China and Japan reduce their holdings of U.S. debt, and geopolitical tensions rise, leading to discussions about alternative currencies for oil transactions [14] Group 3: Jewish Capital Influence - Jewish Americans, despite being only 2% of the population, hold significant influence in finance, technology, and media, with a notable presence in major firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley [16] - The wealth and influence of Jewish Americans are substantial, with 44% of Jewish households earning over $100,000 annually, far exceeding the national average [8] Group 4: Potential Shifts in Capital - If the U.S. economy declines, Jewish capital may seek new investment opportunities in countries like Israel, China, and India, driven by the need for better returns and reduced geopolitical risks [20] - Israel, with a growing tech sector and a GDP of approximately $400 billion, is a potential destination for Jewish capital, though its small economy and regional instability pose challenges [22] - China, as the second-largest economy with a GDP exceeding $18 trillion, offers significant market potential, but strict regulations and cultural differences may hinder large-scale capital inflows [25] Group 5: Future Implications - The potential outflow of capital from the U.S. could severely impact its financial markets, leading to increased volatility in stock and bond markets, while emerging markets may benefit from the influx of investment [32] - The decline of the dollar's dominance may not happen overnight, but trends indicate a shift towards a multi-currency system, with central banks increasing their gold reserves and expanding the use of currencies like the yuan and euro [34] - Historical parallels can be drawn between the current situation of the dollar and the past decline of the pound, suggesting that the U.S. may face similar challenges if economic conditions do not improve [36]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have continued their strong upward trend from 2024 into 2025, reaching a historical high of over $3500 per ounce before experiencing significant volatility and fluctuations around $3300 [1][3][5]. Market Analysis - On April 28, 2025, the most actively traded June gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange rose by 1.71%, closing at $3354.80 per ounce, driven by a return of risk aversion and declines in the stock market and the dollar index [3]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will enter a consolidation phase during the summer, with support around $3000 and a target price exceeding $3500 [8]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent surge in gold prices and subsequent high-level fluctuations are primarily attributed to market reactions to uncertainties surrounding U.S. government policies, particularly following President Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [5]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have also acted as a catalyst for gold price increases, as Trump's public criticism of Fed Chair Powell has raised fears about potential impacts on monetary policy [5][6]. - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation has increased, especially as investor confidence in the dollar has weakened, leading to a shift away from traditional safe-haven assets like the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [6][8]. Historical Context - The article draws parallels between current market conditions and historical events, noting that gold prices have previously surged during periods of economic instability, such as the 1970s stagflation and the 2008 financial crisis [10][11]. - The dollar's dominance in global reserves has declined from 70% in 2000 to 57% currently, indicating a structural shift in the global monetary system that favors gold as a credible alternative [11].

谁掌握了货币霸权，谁就掌握了国际事物的话语权，这是当今世界经济发展过程中的一个基本共识。 自从二战以后，以美元为主导的全球货币体系开始逐渐建立起来，发展到目前，仍然稳固。 不少国家也开始担心起自己会像俄罗斯那样被冻结海外的资金账户 。 随着2020年全球新冠疫情的影响，世界各主要经济体出现了严重的经济衰退现象。以美元为主导的世界 货币体系，也在风云变幻的国际政治、经济形式中出现了裂痕，尤其是3大国的主权货币，正在向美元 发起不同程度的冲击， 一、美元霸权 美元霸权由二战以后签订的《布雷顿森林体系》开始正式确立，美元能够成为唯一与黄金挂钩的货币是 有美国自身强大的经济实力支撑的。由于地理位置的优越，两次世界大战都没有延烧到美国本土， 使美国的经济在很长的一段时间内得到了飞跃性的发展 。 1919年，美国对外贸易总额占到了世界外贸总额的40%，顺差达到了158亿美元。两次世界大战，先后 对欧洲国家经济造成了重创，传统的世界霸主，虽然顶着"日不落帝国"的称号。 但已经是一个名存实亡的霸主，英镑的货币霸主地位遭到了重创，美元就是在这个时候接过了货币霸主 的地位 。 1971年以后，金本位制度彻底退出历史舞台，主权信用 ...