Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump has led short-term interest rate investors to adopt hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential policy easing exceeding current market expectations [1] Group 1 - Following the announcement of Warsh's nomination, there has been a notable shift in the flow of options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), indicating market bets on a more dovish policy direction post his appointment [1] - Swap traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut in July, with expectations for an additional cut by the end of the year [1]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The general trend of inflation narrative remains unchanged, and the current sharp decline in precious metals does not change this trend [1][2] - Domestic policies clearly promote inflation, and the global geopolitical situation remains tense, which may drive up inflation [2] - In the short term, be vigilant against market fluctuations, and different commodity sectors have different investment opportunities and risks [3] Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and the market priced in the "review of Fed independence", causing silver to fall by over 30% and gold to fall by 11%, the largest single - day decline since March 1980 [1] - The core driver overseas is Trump's policies, with the core appeal of nominating Warsh being to cut interest rates, lower credit card rates, and boost the real estate market [1] - Fed Governor Milan said the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year [1][5] Inflation and Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized measures to boost consumption and regulate "involution - style" competition [2] - On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [2] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance issued 5 important policy documents to support various types of loans [2] - On February 3, 2026, the Central No. 1 Document was released to promote rural revitalization [2][5] Geopolitical and Trade - Trump said negotiations on Greenland are about to reach an agreement [2] - On February 2, Trump announced that the US and India had reached a trade agreement, with the US "reciprocal tariff" on India dropping from 25% to 18%, and India reducing tariffs and non - tariff barriers to zero and promising to buy over $500 billion worth of US energy products [2][5] - Trump said the US is negotiating with Iran, and the Iranian Supreme Leader's advisor said a "negotiation framework" is taking shape [3][5] Commodity Analysis - The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector remain unrelieved, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment [3] - OPEC+ plans to keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil, with Trump hoping to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [3] - In the chemical sector, methanol, PTA and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [3] - For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases; for the black sector, focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on precious metals at low prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - Eurozone inflation has entered a period of weakness, with a significant drop in January, leading to expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its current interest rates for the foreseeable future [1] Inflation Data - Eurozone inflation rate fell to 1.7% in January, the lowest level since September 2024, primarily driven by declining energy prices [1] - Core inflation, excluding volatile items such as energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, slightly decreased from 2.3% in December to 2.2% in January, attributed to a slowdown in service prices [1] Market Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged during its upcoming meeting and throughout the remainder of the year [1] - Eurozone inflation has been hovering around 2% for at least a year, indicating a stable yet low inflation environment [1] Currency Movements - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Trump’s policies and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has sparked discussions about potential rate cuts [1]

·汇丰银行：财政刺激推动印尼内需回暖，但出口仍疲软 ·东方汇理： 欧洲央行或于2026年下半年降息至1.75% ·野村证券：日本央行或2027年加息至1.5% ·荷兰国际银行： 澳储行加息预期过热，澳元面临回调压力 ·汇丰银行经济学家表示，尽管印尼遭受洪灾和山体滑坡的冲击，但2025年末财政刺激政策有效提振了 私人消费。消费者信心回升、信贷扩张，以及水泥用量和卡车销量等指标改善，均显示印尼内需持续回 暖。但印尼外部需求依然疲弱，出口订单PMI继续处于收缩区间。 ·荷兰国际银行分析师认为，市场对澳储行进一步加息预期过热，尽管2026年6月通胀预测上调至3.7%， 但2025年末3.2%的预期不足以支撑再度加息。美元可能走强，澳元近期涨势恐难持续，面临回调压 力。 ·Lazard分析师指出，美联储2025年底不应降息，因通胀可能超预期回升。AI和高收入群体虽推动"脆弱 但强劲"的增长，但关税滞后效应或加剧通胀，令美联储进一步落后于曲线，进而导致美元贬值与收益 率曲线陡峭化。 ·澳新银行分析师指出，泰国1月CPI同比或下跌0.3%，延续通缩态势，泰国国内需求疲软与能源价格低 迷。该预测略低于去年12月的-0.28% ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump signals a clear shift towards a hawkish monetary policy, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, pausing rate cuts for several meetings and adhering to a data-driven decision-making framework [1] - Warsh's past tenure emphasizes inflation control and monetary policy independence, contrasting with the dovish stance of some current Fed members [2] - If confirmed, Warsh is likely to refocus the Fed on dual objectives of inflation and employment, potentially accelerating balance sheet reduction and delaying rate cuts until mid-2026 [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The hawkish expectations have strengthened the US dollar, which has regained key resistance levels, while commodity and emerging market currencies face depreciation pressures [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields have risen, reflecting market concerns over persistent inflation and tightening policies, although the yield curve inversion has eased somewhat [3] - Commodity markets show divergence, with gold prices weakening under the dual pressure of a strong dollar and rising real interest rates, while oil prices are influenced by geopolitical risks and demand concerns [3] Group 3: Capital Flows and Global Impact - Global capital is flowing back to the US market, increasing pressure on emerging markets facing capital outflows and potential debt default risks due to currency depreciation [4] - The current market environment is characterized by high volatility and strong differentiation among asset classes, with investor risk appetite shrinking [4] - The future direction of Fed policy will depend on key variables, including core inflation trends, US economic data performance, the Senate confirmation process for Warsh, and liquidity constraints from balance sheet reduction [4] Group 4: Outlook - Until the Fed's policy framework is fully clarified, markets will continue to navigate the dynamics of balance sheet reduction and rate cut expectations, with a strong dollar likely to persist [5] - Investors should monitor Fed policy developments and US economic data closely to mitigate risks associated with emerging market currencies and debt, while seizing opportunities in dollar and safe-haven assets [5] - Central banks worldwide need to prepare for policy adjustments to address challenges from capital flows and currency volatility, ensuring financial stability [5]

尽管特朗普及其在美联储的盟友一直在呼吁进一步降息，但该央行内部始终存在更担心通胀顽固风险的 阵营。 里士满联储主席汤姆巴尔金(Tom Barkin)周二表示，去年的降息举措为劳动力市场提供了支撑，而目前 美联储官员的核心目标，是将通胀率拉回到2%的政策目标。 周三(2月4日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格持续上涨，目前交投于5084.46美元/盎司附近，现货黄金价格在 最近的盘中交易中持续上涨，最终突破了5000美元的关键心理阻力位，这预示着金价将继续积极尝试收 复之前的损失。然而，金价随后触及了50日均线阻力位，这构成了短期内扩大涨幅的障碍。 美联储理事斯蒂芬米兰(Stephen Miran)周二在接受福克斯商业频道采访时继续为其唿吁今年大幅降息的 立场辩护。 米兰表示，当前美国经济中并未出现强劲的价格压力，这意味着目前处于限制性水平的利率，今年需要 再次下调。他重申，"我预计，今年全年的降息幅度大概率会超过1个百分点。" 走势偏向轻微上行，因为50期SMA的初步上升支持回调，价格走势在其上方构建。动能改善，MACD 保持正值，直方图扩大，而RSI保持在50以上，强化了恢复的立场；然而，头部的斐波那契阻力抑制了 跟 ...

2月4日：上交易日周二（2月3日）：国际黄金延续周一触底回升之力，反弹走强收阳，重回中轨上方， 多头动力加强，不过，仍需进一步运行在5日均线上方才能加大看涨前景，进一步刷新高点，否则仍面 临震荡调整的预期，不过目前看，继续反弹走强的概率较大，操作还是低多为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开于4667.81美元/盎司，并先行录得日内低点4665.67美元，之后持续反弹回 升，延续到美盘次日0点时段录得日内高点4992.95美元，最后有所遇阻，并陷入窄幅盘整，最终收于 4935.80美元，日振幅327.28美元，收涨267.99美元，涨幅5.74%。 影响上，受周一触底回升的买盘力量推动，以及美伊会谈前再起摩擦，地缘局势再度紧张，再加上美联 储理事米兰：今年需降息略高于一个百分点等，整体使基本面转强，助力金价攀升收阳。 展望今日周三（2月4日）：国际黄金开盘，多头动力有所减弱，受到短期均线的阻力压制，有所获利了 结，以及特朗普签署法案以结束政府部分停摆，减弱了避险需求，但金价目前已重回布林带中轨等关键 支撑上方，多头已占据优势，故此，后市行情，要么是震荡，要么是继续走强，进一步继续走低的概率 较小。 日内将可关注美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Waller as the new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump is expected to have limited impact on the Fed's monetary easing path, with the likelihood of maintaining interest rates steady in the first half of the year and potential rate cuts in the second half [1][8]. Group 1: Nomination and Background - Trump's nomination of Waller reflects a cautious dovish stance, with a high probability of keeping rates unchanged in the first half of the year and possibly cutting rates twice in the second half [1]. - Waller has a diverse background across politics, business, and academia, which may enhance market confidence in his leadership [4]. - The nomination process faced delays, with multiple candidates being considered before Waller was ultimately selected [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Proposals - Waller advocates for a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, aligning with Trump's policy preferences [4][5]. - He believes inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon and criticizes the Fed's excessive balance sheet expansion, suggesting a return to conventional monetary policy tools [5][6]. - Waller's approach to interest rate cuts is expected to be gradual, as he acknowledges the need to balance inflation concerns with economic growth [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Trends - Following Waller's nomination, there was volatility in U.S. equities and bonds, with the dollar strengthening and gold prices declining [8]. - The market anticipates that major assets will revert to economic fundamentals, with U.S. stocks likely to continue rising and bond yields having limited downward space [9]. - The dollar index is expected to remain weak overall, while gold may experience upward pressure due to geopolitical risks and ongoing uncertainties [10].

进入 2026 年后，围绕美联储政策方向的讨论，明显比过去一年更激烈了。一边是官方声明仍在反复强调 "谨慎" 与 "耐心"，另一边，美联储内部 和政治层面的声音却开始越来越直接，甚至不再掩饰对当前利率水平的不满。 最近，特朗普钦点的美联储理事米兰在公开讲话中明确表示：今年美联储需要的降息幅度，可能不止 100 个基点；同时，他还公开表达了对凯 文・沃什未来担任美联储主席的期待。 阿萨交易学社分析师 Eden 认为，这一组合信号很快引发市场联想：如果更激进的降息立场叠加一位风格鲜明的新主席，美联储的政策逻辑是否 会发生实质性变化？而对高度依赖利率和美元环境的黄金来说，这是否意味着一轮新的定价冲击正在酝酿？对于黄金入门投资者来说，理解这些 政策变化对黄金价格的影响至关重要。 从米兰的表态来看，他并没有把重点放在 "经济即将衰退" 或 "市场需要刺激" 这些常见叙事上，而是反复强调一个判断：当前的利率水平本身就 过于限制性。 在他看来，潜在通胀并没有构成真正威胁。无论是供需关系还是价格传导，都没有出现需要高利率持续压制的明显失衡。 他甚至直言，当自己观察通胀数据时，并没有看到 "很多需要货币政策应对的强劲价格压力" ...

2025年下半年以来，沃什立场明显转鸽，公开支持降息，建议美联储与财政部在国债发行方面协调，并 提出效仿1951年美联储与财政部达成政策协议的先例，推动双方达成新的政策协议，明确资产负债表规 模目标。2025年7月，沃什公开批评美联储在降息上犹豫不决的做法损害公信力，称降息是纠正政策失 衡的开始。 沃什为雅诗兰黛家族继承人罗纳德·劳德的女婿，劳德与特朗普有超过60年私人交情，2016年以来累计 向特朗普团队捐赠600万至800万美元。特朗普选择美联储主席的核心考量为能否快速降息，沃什的立场 转向与这一诉求高度匹配。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 美国总统特朗普于1月30日提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什出任下任美联储主席，现任主席鲍威尔任期将于 5月结束。市场此前将沃什视作传统鹰派人物，但其近年政策立场已出现明显转向。 沃什出生于1970年，2006年以当时最年轻理事身份加入美联储，2011年因反对第二轮量化宽松政策辞 职，曾担任小布什政府经济顾问，也是特朗普2017年美联储主席人选考察对象之一。 此前沃什以批评量化宽松、主张收缩资产负债表为鲜明标签，认为庞大 ...