降息

Search documents
创科实业(00669.HK):1H25业绩符合预期 公司持续超行业表现
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-11 18:59
Core Insights - The company reported 1H25 performance in line with expectations, with revenue of $7.833 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit of $628 million, up 14.2% year-on-year [1] Performance Overview - Milwaukee continues to outperform the industry, while Ryobi achieved high single-digit growth. In 1H25, power tools revenue reached $7.425 billion, growing 7.9% year-on-year, with Milwaukee's revenue increasing by 11.9% in local currency and Ryobi by 8.7% [1] - The floor care business saw revenue of $408 million, a decline of 4.6% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased demand for the VAX brand in the UK and Australia [1] - By region, North America generated $5.872 billion in revenue, up 7.5% year-on-year; Europe saw revenue of $1.401 billion, increasing by 11.9%; other regions contributed $560 million, down 6.5% [1] Profitability and Inventory Management - The company's gross margin improved to 40.3%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by growth in high-value products like Milwaukee and improved profitability in consumer brands [2] - The net profit margin for 1H25 was 8.0%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue rose by 0.5 percentage points to 4.6%, while sales expenses increased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.2%. Management and financial expenses decreased by 0.9 and 0.2 percentage points to 9.5% and 0.7%, respectively [2] - Inventory increased by 6.61% year-on-year as the company raised finished goods stock to prepare for potential tariff changes in the second half of 2025 [2] Market Trends and Economic Indicators - Since 2025, U.S. housing sales have been declining, with new home sales down 6.6% year-on-year in June 2025, and existing home sales remaining flat [2] - Anticipated tariffs led to increased end-user orders and elevated inventory levels in the supply chain [3] - The actual annualized consumption of tools and hardware in the U.S. was $41.94 billion in March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. However, by June, this figure dropped to $39.95 billion, a decline of 3.4% year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at $0.70 and $0.80, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 17.4 and 15.2 for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The target price is set at HKD 115.49, implying P/E ratios of 21.5 and 18.6 for 2025 and 2026, with a potential upside of 22.6% [3]
原油周报:宏观转冷盘面承压-20250811
Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 11:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the oil industry is neutral [5] 2. Core Views - Due to the recent macroeconomic slowdown and OPEC's production increase, the market is under phased pressure. The current price level is neutrally evaluated, and volatility strategies are recommended. The market is mainly trading based on fundamentals, with no obvious weakening trend overall. Attention should be paid to the purchasing trends of China and India and subsequent logistics changes [4] - The core view of the report is neutral [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Factors Assessment - **OPEC Production**: Bullish. OPEC increased production further in September, and there is market discussion about the possible disruption of Russian oil supply due to sanctions [6] - **Macro**: Bearish. The non - farm payroll data declined significantly, and the market is worried about a recession again [6] - **SPR**: Bullish. The US SPR is being replenished at a rate of about 30,000 - 50,000 barrels per day, mainly for slow and low - cost restocking [6] - **Geopolitics & Sanctions**: Bullish. The US has tightened sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, pushing up the price of Middle Eastern oil [6] - **Downstream Demand**: Neutral. The spot premium shows a marginal weakening trend [6] - **Shale Oil**: Neutral. Last week's production was 13.28 million barrels per day, and the number of rigs remained at 415. There is a downward trend in the number of rigs, which will gradually lead to a decrease in production [6] 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: From 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, the total production shows fluctuations. OPEC production has its own adjustment rhythm, and non - OPEC production also changes. The adjustment of the balance sheet shows changes in production in different quarters [7] - **Demand**: Total demand also fluctuates over the quarters from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4. OECD and non - OECD demand have their own trends, and the Call On OPEC also varies [7] - **Surplus**: The surplus amount shows positive and negative values in different quarters, indicating the balance between supply and demand in the market [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - The non - farm payroll data on Friday was poor. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs increased by only 73,000, the lowest since October 2024. The previous two months' data was revised down by 258,000. The private sector's momentum has slowed significantly, and wage growth is also declining [10] - Due to the significant weakening of the labor market, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut in September is over 90%, and there are expected to be three interest rate cuts this year (September, October, December), each by 25 BP. The market is worried about an economic recession again, and risk assets are under phased pressure [13] 3.4 Market Conditions - Affected by the increase in refinery maintenance, the North Sea premium has a phased weakening trend. As of August 7, CFD and DFL closed at $1.02/barrel and $1.08/barrel respectively [19] - Refinery operations reached a new high, and commercial crude oil inventories continued to decline [21] - Recently, the floating storage (especially in - transit inventory) has decreased significantly. The in - transit inventory and floating storage decreased by 29.1 million barrels and 2.6 million barrels respectively on a weekly basis, which has a significant suppressing effect on the market [24] - Saudi Arabia announced its September premium. For light, medium, and heavy crude oil, the adjustments for shipments to the Americas, Europe, and Asia are different. Most of the Middle East's production increase is absorbed by Asia, and attention should be paid to the continuous purchasing of India and China [25] 3.5 Futures Market Data - As of August 7, the WTI near - term spread closed at $0.98/barrel, the 1 - 6 spread was $2.5/barrel; the Brent near - term spread was $0.62/barrel, the 1 - 6 spread was $1.6/barrel; the SC near - term spread was 3.8 yuan/barrel [30] - In the week of July 29, WTI funds' long positions increased by 3,144 lots, short positions increased by 3,994 lots, and net long positions decreased by 850 lots. Brent funds' long positions increased by 13,180 lots, short positions decreased by 9,548 lots, and net long positions increased by 22,730 lots [46][51]
国际金融市场早知道:8月11日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 05:12
Group 1 - US Treasury Secretary Becerra expands the candidate pool for the Federal Reserve Chair, including former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Bush advisor Mark Sobel [1] - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year, citing core personal consumption expenditures inflation nearing the 2% target [1] - UK Chief Economist Hugh Pill warns that while inflation pressures may ease, changes in long-term pricing and wage-setting behavior could delay future rate cuts [1] Group 2 - July electric vehicle sales reached a record high, accounting for 9.1% of total passenger vehicle sales, with used electric vehicle sales hitting 36,700 units [1] - The Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes indicate a consensus on future rate hikes, but concerns about the impact of US tariffs have lowered short-term rate hike expectations [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa reveals that the US will modify a presidential order to provide tax relief measures for Japan, refunding overpaid tariffs and reducing tariffs on cars and parts [1]
商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20250811
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 05:08
2025年08月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金:关税乌龙影响价差 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银:小幅反弹 | 2 | | 铜:美元弱势,支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌:窄幅震荡 | 6 | | 铅:库存减少,支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡:区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝:波动率降至历史低位 | 11 | | 氧化铝:市场存在分歧 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金:窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍:矿端支撑逻辑削弱,冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢:多空博弈加剧,钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 资料来源:同花顺,国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】(资料来源:华尔街见闻) 1、中俄两国元首通电话。中国外交部回应特朗普可能征次级关税讲话:中方同包括俄罗斯在内的世 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 11 日 黄金:关税乌龙影响价差 白银:小幅反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | ...
大越期货沪铝早报-20250811
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:32
沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 :祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号:Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面:碳中和控制产能扩张,下游需求不强劲,房地产延续疲软,宏观短期情绪多变;中性。 2、基差:现货20650,基差-35,贴水期货,中性。 3、库存:上期所铝库存较上周减3913吨至113614吨;中性。 4、盘面:收盘价收于20均线上,20均线向上运行;偏多。 5、主力持仓:主力净持仓多,多减;偏多。 6、预期:碳中和催发铝行业变革,长期利多铝价,多空交织,铝价震荡运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多: 利空: 逻辑: 现货价格 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动,影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观,高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 ...
7月中国通胀数据基本符合预期
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 00:49
Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and policy changes. For instance, the potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks and the uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship are key factors affecting various markets [17][44]. - In the financial market, different asset classes have different outlooks. Gold is expected to continue its oscillatory trend with increased volatility; the US dollar is predicted to remain weak in the short - term; and the US stock market may face correction risks due to the fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations [13][18][22]. - In the commodity market, each sector has its own supply - demand dynamics. For example, the油脂 market may experience short - term pullbacks but has long - term potential for long - positions; the copper market is likely to have high - level oscillations with inventory increases limiting the upside [33][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year. The gold price oscillated on Friday with increased intraday volatility. After the White House clarified that imported gold bars would not be taxed, the COMEX gold price declined to narrow the spread with London gold. The gold price is in an oscillatory range, and short - term oscillations are expected to continue with attention to correction risks [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The NATO Secretary - General is optimistic about the "Trump - Putin meeting". Nordic and Baltic leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. The US - Russia meeting in Alaska and the European stance on Ukraine make the outcome of the meeting and the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict highly uncertain, leading to the US dollar remaining weak in the short - term [14][15][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Some support maintaining the current rate due to unmet inflation targets, while others advocate for rate cuts. The market's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, and the US stock market at its current level may face correction risks [19][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The issuance of local bonds with VAT on interest started on August 8. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be in a favorable period in the first half of August, and trading - position long - holders can continue to hold their positions [23][24][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Beijing optimized its housing purchase restrictions, and the capital market is expected not to have a large - scale IPO expansion. The strengthening of the core CPI may support the stock market pricing, and it is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [28][29][31]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week was 2177500 tons, and the expected volume in the 33rd week is 2369500 tons. Multiple countries' policies may change. India may raise edible oil import tariffs, and there are rumors about the US RVO proposal. The short - term oil market may pull back, but it has long - term potential for long - positions, and it is recommended to go long on dips [32][33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA August supply - demand report to raise the US soybean yield. The US soybean market is weak, while the domestic soybean meal market is relatively strong. It is recommended to continue to focus on the development of Sino - US relations and changes in import and demand [34][35]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July, indicating weak export demand. The international sugar market is under pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. However, factors such as the low sugar - ethanol price difference and poor cane quality may limit the downside of the ICE raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also under pressure from increased imports, but the downside of the Zhengzhou sugar price is limited, and it is not recommended to short aggressively [39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US tariff policy and the uncertainty in the US - China trade relationship increase market concerns. The ICE cotton price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Domestically, the cotton supply is tight before the new cotton harvest, and there may be a small - scale "rush to buy" at the beginning of the new cotton season. The 1 - month contract may rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to the US - China trade policy [44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China has completed the ultra - low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity. The inventory of five major steel products is increasing, and the demand has not changed significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the limited impact of environmental protection restrictions on supply and the difficulty of the spot price to follow the increase [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory has increased again at a high level, and the price difference with corn starch has narrowed. There is no driving force for the price difference to strengthen in the supply - demand situation, and the price difference in the 09 contract may be affected by the new corn harvest in North China [48]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions remains low. The market's demand for imported corn substitutes is expected to decline, and the old - crop spot price is likely to weaken. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop corn and pay attention to the weather [49][50]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two factories of a Shanxi alumina enterprise were affected by ore supply. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US is interested in investing in Pakistan's copper mining. Chile's Codelco partially restarted a copper mine. Macro factors may provide short - term support for the copper price, but the increase in global inventory will limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [54][57]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. The spot trading is light, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term polysilicon price may range between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton, and it may reach over 60000 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 9 - 12 positive arbitrage [58][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some production capacities in Xinjiang have resumed production. The supply may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon may lead to inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, with risks from large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [61][62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mining site will stop production. The production loss will lead to inventory reduction in the third - quarter balance sheet. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider the inter - month positive arbitrage [63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production is expected to increase, while the secondary lead production is affected by sewage inspections. The demand is in the pre - peak season waiting to be verified. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low prices and pay attention to the positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [65][66]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, while the domestic zinc supply is high. The demand is stable in the primary processing sector. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions for single - side trading, consider the medium - term positive arbitrage, and wait and see for the domestic - foreign trading [67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The macro - environment provides some support, but the supply is expected to be in surplus. The short - term nickel price is unlikely to decline significantly, and it is recommended to focus on short - term trading opportunities and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - term [69][70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price oscillated last week. The carbon price may be supported by the buying demand before the compliance deadline, but the weak demand may limit the upside. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [71][72]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count decreased. India's state - owned refineries are招标 to purchase non - Russian crude oil. The oil price has fallen to a new low since early June due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The short - term oil price volatility is expected to increase [73][74][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The Shandong caustic soda market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The caustic soda spot price is starting to weaken, but the downside is limited due to factors such as low liquid chlorine prices and strong coal prices [77][78]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market has limited adjustments. The futures price is oscillating. The anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [79]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is weakly oscillating. The futures price is down, and the trading is light. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the macro - environment and coal prices provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - A South Korean PX plant is under maintenance, and Japanese PX plants are restarting. The PX price is affected by downstream demand, PTA spot price, and other factors, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - A Northeast PTA plant is shutting down. The weaving industry is in the off - season, and the PTA supply and demand have little contradiction. The PTA price mainly follows the crude oil price and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's second - quarter earnings were strong. The SCFI index has declined. The shipping companies are accelerating price cuts, and the supply pressure is increasing. The freight rate may continue to decline, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the market is boosted by sentiment [84][87].
美联储降息救市!8月10日,今日深夜的四大消息已全面来袭
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 22:14
摆在鲍威尔面前的经济数据呈现出一种诡异的分裂:核心CPI同比飙升至2.9%,远超2%的目标;特朗普的关税政策导致服装价格上涨0.4%、家具上涨1%、 家电价格暴涨1.9%;30年期美债收益率突破5%的生死线。然而,另一方面,二季度GDP的虚假繁荣却源于进口下降,国内需求增速却跌至两年半以来的冰 点。当90%的企业明确表示将在三个月内将关税成本转嫁给消费者时,鲍威尔在闭门会议上无奈地叹息:"我们正处在一个异常不确定的时期。" 大西洋彼岸,伦敦金融城的交易员们紧盯着美元流动性枯竭曲线,冷汗直冒。英格兰银行的压力测试显示:任何英国银行都无法承受美元流动性枯竭超过三 天。这不是演习——美元霸权松动的警报已经拉响。 全球央行正在用真金白银投票。四月,全球央行抛售了360亿美元的美国国债;上半年,全球央行疯狂囤积了280吨黄金,创下二十年来的最高纪录。巴西总 统卢拉的"去美元化"宣言仍在回荡,欧盟与东盟构建的独立贸易网络也已初露端倪。布鲁塞尔会议室里,官员们正重新评估7500亿美元的能源协议,全球金 融版图在深夜悄然重绘。 黎明前的华盛顿,2025年7月29日,刺骨的寒意透过美联储大楼的玻璃窗,渗入鲍威尔主席的骨髓。窗外 ...
一周重磅日程:特普会,美国通胀,中国社融,美国半导体和药品关税
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-10 12:25
| 时间 地区 | | 内容 | 预期 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8月11日 周一 | | | | | | 数据 | 国内 | 中国 7月M0货币供应同比 | | 12% | | | | 中国 7月M1货币供应同比 | | 4.6% | | | | 中国 7月M2货币供应同比 | | 8.3% | | | | 中国 1至7月社会融资规模增量(亿人民币) | | 228300 | | | | 中国 1至7月新增人民币贷款(亿人民币) | | 129200 | | 事件 | 海外 | 特朗普称美国半导体和药品关税将在"本周左右" 出台 | | | | 财报 | 国内 | 工业富联 | | | | 8月12日 周二 | | | | | | 数据 | 海外 | 12:30 澳大利亚 政策利率 | 3.6% | 3.85% | | | | 20:30 美国 7月CPI同比 | 2.8% | 2.7% | | 事件 | 海外 | 欧佩克公布月度原油市场报告(月报具体公布时间 | | | | | | 待定,一般于北京时间18-21点左右公布) | | | | 财报 | ...
美联储理事:支持今年降息3次!关税传导预计美国通胀小幅回升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 08:47
美联储鲍曼预计今年将降息三次 鲍曼在预先准备的讲话中表示,她支持多次降息,这一观点因近期疲软的劳动力市场数据而得到强化。 今年以来,美联储的决策委员会一直维持利率不变,鲍曼在6月之前也支持这一做法。但在7月,她与理 事克里斯托弗·沃勒一起投了反对票,主张降息25个基点。 现在,她呼吁其他决策者在9月的美联储会议上开始降息。 她表示,这样做"有助于避免劳动力市场状况出现进一步不必要的恶化,并减少委员会在劳动力市场进 一步恶化时不得不采取更大幅度政策调整的可能性"。 鲍曼由特朗普于2018年任命为美联储理事。她还重申了自己的观点,即关税推动的价格上涨不太可能持 续性地推高通胀。 她在科罗拉多斯普林斯的堪萨斯银行家协会发表的预先讲话中说:"随着我对关税不会对通胀造成持续 冲击的信心不断增强,我认为物价稳定面临的上行风险已经减弱,在潜在通胀持续朝2%目标回落、总 需求疲软,以及劳动力市场显露脆弱迹象的情况下,我认为我们应当聚焦于就业目标所面临的风险。" 鲍曼和沃勒在9月可能会有更多人加入支持降息的阵营。 本周,旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利、明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利以及理事丽莎·库克都在新数据 公布后表达了担忧。 ...
美联储降息救市8月9日,今日爆出的五大消息全面袭来
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 04:11
鲍威尔主席面对着互相撕扯的经济信号:第二季度GDP表面回升,但增长动力主要来自进口下降,国内需求增速跌至两年半最低;就业市场 呈现冰火两重天,私营部门新增10.4万个岗位远超预期,但失业率下降却是由于劳动力供给减少而非需求增强。更危险的信号来自通胀传导 链,近90%的企业表示将在三个月内将关税成本转嫁给消费者。37万亿美元国债的利息支出已吞噬联邦税收的四分之一,利率每上升一个百分 点,美国政府每年就要多支付3600亿美元的利息。 这把悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑,正威胁着脆弱的美国经济。 这场风暴的导火索,源于白宫的"核按钮"。数小时前,特朗普在"真实社交"平台发布了一条爆炸性消息:"立即降息300个基点!" 这条信息如 同政治核弹,瞬间引爆市场。预测平台Polymarket上"鲍威尔被解雇"的概率在4小时内从16%飙升至26%;黄金价格应声上涨20美元/盎司,美 元指数暴跌25点;德意志银行紧急发布红色预警:若鲍威尔被迫离职,美元可能暴跌3%,长期美债收益率将飙升40个基点。虽然特朗普随后 否认了解雇计划,这场"特朗普TACO"(临阵退缩)闹剧却已在市场上留下难以弥合的裂痕——白宫悄然启动了遴选下一任美联储主席 ...