Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 3.483 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 191 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 185 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year change of +3%, -15%, and -18% respectively. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 1.294 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 59 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 55 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of -3%, -40%, and -44% respectively. The current operations are gradually recovering, and future demand is expected to benefit from interest rate cuts [2][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is expanding its market presence overseas, diversifying product categories, and enhancing customer relationships through a dual-driven strategy of international and domestic brand development. It is focusing on non-U.S. markets by establishing offices in the top 30 GDP countries and developing products tailored to local styles in Europe and emerging markets in Asia [8]. Financial Performance - In Q3, revenue increased by 10% compared to Q2 but decreased by 3% year-on-year. The decline in year-on-year revenue is attributed to the order rhythm of OEM clients being affected by tariffs. However, there has been a recovery in orders since September, with strong growth in proprietary brands. The net profit margin for Q3 was 4.6%, down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [14]. Future Outlook - The demand for real estate and furniture in the U.S. is sensitive to interest rates. With the anticipated resumption of interest rate cuts in the U.S., it is expected that the demand for real estate and furniture will recover. The current annualized home sales in the U.S. are at 4.66 million units, which is at the 16th percentile since 2005, indicating significant room for recovery [14]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 290 million yuan, 350 million yuan, and 420 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 13, 11, and 9 times [8]. Dividend Policy - The mid-term dividend plan for 2025 includes a distribution of 0.16 yuan per share (before tax), with a dividend payout ratio of 40%. If the payout ratio is calculated at 50% or more (with a 2024 payout ratio of 51.4%), the expected dividend yield would be 3.8% [8].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan supports continuing the interest rate cuts in the last meeting of the year, positioning himself as a relatively dovish figure within the Fed's decision-makers [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Milan believes that continuing to lower interest rates remains a reasonable policy choice, questioning whether the economic fundamentals have changed enough to warrant a shift in this policy path [3]. - The Federal Reserve recently decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, following a previous cut in September, although Milan had advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points during the meeting [3][5]. - There is a noticeable divergence among Fed officials regarding the economic outlook, with some expressing concerns about inflation risks and being cautious about further rate cuts in December [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Milan acknowledges that official economic data presents challenges for assessment but emphasizes that current inflation levels are below expectations and the job market remains stable [5]. - Recent employment data indicates an increase of 42,000 jobs in the private sector for October, slightly above market expectations, but Milan suggests that overall job growth potential remains moderate, with wage growth slowing [7]. - These indicators imply that interest rates should be slightly lower than current levels, according to Milan's analysis [7].

与此同时，英国财政部长里夫斯本周在 11 月 26 日的预算报告中为增税事宜奠定了基础，她指出需要做 出"艰难的抉择"以确保英国的财政状况保持稳定。 （原标题：增税与降息预期压顶，英镑看跌情绪创今年1月以来之最） 智通财经APP获悉，市场对英镑的前景愈发感到悲观，目前英镑已跌至数月来的最低点，交易员们担心 本月即将出台的预算法案对英国经济增长前景的提振作用甚微。而且期权市场显示，对英镑的悲观情绪 达到了自今年 1 月以来的最高水平，当时由于财政和货币政策存在不确定性，英国政府债券承压。 这在很大程度上反映了市场对英国央行可能在周四降息的预期，这将降低储户和投资者的收益，并意味 着对英镑的需求减少。目前市场预计英国央行本月降息的可能性约为 33%，而就在几周前这一概率几 乎为零，预计 2026 年上半年还将有两次降息。财政紧缩的预算虽然能遏制债券投机行为，但也会抑制 经济增长，这可能会导致更多的降息。 今年年初，投资者大多看好英镑。但随着英国经济和利率前景变得不明朗，这种信心有所减弱，期权市 场也反映出这一点。英镑一个月期权风险逆转指标(持有看涨期权与看跌期权成本之差)已降至-1.21个百 分点。这是自1月份以 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysis indicates that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules Trump's tariff policy illegal, it could force the U.S. government to refund approximately $140 billion in taxes to importers, which represents 7.9% of the projected federal budget deficit for FY2025 [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - A ruling against the government could lead to immediate fiscal shocks due to the large tax refunds, potentially resulting in a structurally low-tariff trade environment if trade partners do not retaliate [1] - This low-tariff environment could ultimately benefit the U.S. economy and stock market [1] Group 2: Government Response - UBS estimates that the government is likely to utilize legal tools from the Trade Act of 1974, specifically Sections 201 and 301, to rebuild tariff barriers, although this process may take several quarters and reduce trade policy flexibility [1] Group 3: Market Implications - While refunds may provide unexpected financial benefits to import businesses, the impact on the overall market may be limited as tariff costs have not significantly lowered S&P 500 earnings expectations [1] - The ruling could lower the overall effective tariff rate, enhance household purchasing power, alleviate inflationary pressures, and provide the Federal Reserve with more room for interest rate cuts, which would generally be welcomed by stock market investors, provided trade partners refrain from escalating retaliatory measures [1]

Core Insights - The current deposit interest rates in China are at historically low levels, with most banks offering rates below 2% [3][6] - Major banks are concerned about the potential for large-scale withdrawals by depositors, leading to slightly higher rates than the benchmark [4][5] - A potential new round of interest rate cuts is anticipated, which could further lower deposit rates and mortgage rates [6][7] Deposit Rates Overview - The benchmark deposit rates for various terms are as follows: - 1-year: 0.95% - 2-year: 1.05% - 3-year: 1.25% - 5-year: 1.30% [4][7] - Some banks, such as Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank, offer slightly higher rates, with 2-year and 3-year rates reaching up to 1.60% [5][7] Future Projections - If the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, it is expected that domestic deposit rates could drop to as low as 0.75% to 0.85% for 1-year deposits and 1% to 1.1% for 3-year deposits [6][7] - The anticipated decline in mortgage rates could see them fall below 3% in various cities [6] Market Sentiment - There is a general sentiment among banks that low deposit rates are beneficial for their profitability, as they reduce the interest expenses on deposits [3][4] - However, the current environment has led to a reluctance among banks to aggressively pursue new deposits, as evidenced by their marketing strategies [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, with a projected voting outcome of 5-4, indicating a closely contested decision [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Policymakers may express a more cautious stance towards further easing due to persistently high inflation [1] - Upcoming data in the next few months will be crucial in determining the timing of any further rate cuts [1] Group 2: Currency Impact - The British pound is likely to remain under pressure regardless of whether the Bank of England acts now or delays until later this year [1] - The forecast suggests that the euro will strengthen against the pound, while the pound will face ongoing downward risks against the US dollar [1]

1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21300，基差-95，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌4594吨至 113574吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价偏强运行 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, is experiencing short-term adjustments but maintains a long-term upward trend, presenting strategic investment opportunities for investors. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 6, the Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.49%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.63% [1] - Stocks related to power grid equipment, charging piles, and energy storage continue to perform strongly, with companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC rising over 2% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle is driving global capital reallocation, making the Hong Kong stock market an important destination for excess liquidity due to its offshore characteristics and undervaluation [2] - The technology sector, being sensitive to interest rates, is expected to attract significant capital [2] Group 3: AI and Industry Transformation - AI technology is undergoing comprehensive breakthroughs from hardware self-research to commercial applications, significantly restructuring the fundamentals of Hong Kong tech companies [3] - The surge in cloud services and model demand validates the commercial potential, providing a new narrative for sustained growth in the sector [3] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Appeal - The convergence of southbound funds and foreign capital is focusing on Hong Kong technology stocks, which are significantly undervalued compared to major global tech indices [4] - The unique risk-reward ratio, supported by AI growth expectations and the rate-cutting environment, highlights the investment value in this sector [4] Group 5: Related ETFs - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) covers the entire technology industry chain [5] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) focuses on leading internet companies [5]

经济数据方面，周三发布的ADP私人就业数据优于预期，ISM服务业经济读数也强于预期。数据显示，10月增加了42000个工作岗位，超过了道琼斯普遍 预期的增加22000个。而9月的就业数据从减少29000个岗位修正为减少了3000个工作岗位。 航空股多数上涨，波音跌0.23%，美国航空涨超6%，达美航空涨逾5%，西南航空涨超6%，美联航涨逾6%。 海川证券收涨超620%。公开资料显示，公司是2015年6月创立、2019年1月在纳斯达克上市的资产管理集团，以投资银行、资产管理等业务为核心，在美 国及香港持有证券经纪、资产管理和投资银行牌照，接受美国SEC、FINRA及香港金融管理局等多地监管机构的监管。 消息面上，当地时间11月5日，美国最高法院就美国总统特朗普大规模征收关税的合法性展开辩论。此案被视为对特朗普总统权力边界及其能否扩大行政 权限的重要考验，并可能对全球经济产生影响。 当地时间11月5日，美股三大股指集体收涨。道指收涨225.76点，报47311点，涨幅为0.48%；纳指收涨151.16点，报23499.8点，涨幅为0.65%；标普500指 数收涨24.74点，报6796.29点，涨幅为0.37%。 ...

国际金价拉升，COMEX黄金期货涨0.81%，报3992.6美元/盎司。 降息概率 美联储理事米兰表示，ADP数据是个令人欣喜的意外；政府停摆前的就业市场趋势似乎依然存在；就业 市场数据表明利率可能低于当前水平；美联储政策仍过于限制性，当前政策存在风险；认为继续降息仍 然是合理的。并表示，不应当机械地通过政策对股市上涨做出反应。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为62.5%，维持利率不变的概率为37.5%。美联 储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为54.8%，维持利率不变的概率为25.9%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为19.4%。 11月5日，美股三大指数盘中拉升，至收盘集体上涨，纳指涨0.65%，道指涨0.48%，标普500指数涨 0.37%。 大型科技股普涨，谷歌涨超2%，创历史收盘新高。特斯拉涨超4%，英特尔涨逾3%，Meta涨超1%，苹 果、奈飞、亚马逊小幅上涨；微软、英伟达跌超1%。 热门中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.15%。个股方面，富途控股涨超4%，唯品会、好未来 涨超2%，蔚来、霸王茶姬涨超1%；新东方、小鹏汽车跌逾3%，贝壳、BOSS直聘跌超2%，百度跌 ...