Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips, considering selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventory. For aluminum, keep an eye on terminal demand in the short - term and hold on dips in the long - term. For zinc, suggest waiting and watching or considering shorting LME zinc, gradually taking profits on long - short spreads and looking for far - month reverse spreads, and paying attention to the 12 - 02 long - short spread. For nickel, suggest waiting and watching due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro uncertainties. For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak with short - term macro uncertainties and some price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies. For lead, expect prices to fluctuate narrowly between 17,000 - 17,300 and consider long - short spreads. For tin, wait and watch in the short - term and hold on dips near the cost line in the long - term. For industrial silicon, expect prices to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and cycle at the bottom based on seasonal marginal costs in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, it shows a strong supply - demand pattern in the short - term, and the elasticity of demand is the key variable in the long - term [1][2][4][8][10][12][13][14] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market is influenced by tariff negotiations. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be no higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's psychological price for point - pricing has risen. Copper cable and aluminum cable's operations have diverged. Maintain a buying - on - dips strategy and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1] Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production of photovoltaic components has stabilized. There is seasonal inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots and rods, but post - holiday inventory reduction is significant. The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthening, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain. The short - term fundamentals are okay [1] Zinc - The price fluctuates this week. The domestic TC decreases, and the imported TC increases. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, while overseas ore production increased more than expected in Q2. The smelting in October has slightly recovered. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level. The demand is weak, and the premium is stable. Both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end, and the policy has price - supporting motivation. The short - term fundamentals are weak [3][4] Stainless Steel - The steel mills' production in October has slightly increased. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. The inventory is at a high level [8] Lead - The price fluctuates slightly at a high level. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The recycled lead production is expected to increase by 2 - 3 tons in October. The battery production rate has increased, but the finished - product inventory is high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 17,000 - 17,300 next week [9][10] Tin - The price fluctuates. The ore processing fee is at a low level. The supply has marginally recovered after the Yunnan Tin's maintenance. Overseas imports from Wa State are expected to recover in October, and Indonesia's exports have resumed. The demand for solder has slightly improved during the peak season. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased, and the LME inventory is at a low - level [12] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continue to resume production, while the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly during the dry season. The supply - demand in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [13] Lithium Carbonate - The price fluctuates strongly. The ore end continues to hold prices, and the spot is tight. The consumption and inventory reduction of lithium salts exceed expectations. The supply - demand is strong in the short - term, with an expected inventory reduction of 8,000 - 10,000 tons in October. The elasticity of demand is the key in the long - term [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. The impact of this tariff conflict is not expected to be higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. There is still room for negotiation, and attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations with South Korea. For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and long - term holding on dips is recommended. Keep an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but the export window may open. In the face of increasing macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see or consider shorting LME zinc. For spreads, pay attention to the positive spread opportunities between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak. There is short - term macro uncertainty, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and international lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300. Positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. In the long term, buy on dips near the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and the de - stocking trend is maintained. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the spot price of Shanghai copper remained stable, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 554, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1530, and the import profit decreased by 246.01 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff negotiations. The smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's psychological price for pricing has increased. The copper cable's operation is different from that of the aluminum cable. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 20, the domestic alumina price decreased by 11, and the LME inventory decreased by 4100 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is flat. The demand for photovoltaic modules has stabilized. There is seasonal inventory accumulation during the festival, and the post - festival de - stocking is significant. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and long - term holding on dips is recommended [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 20, the LME C - 3M increased by 93, and the LME inventory decreased by 700 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic TC decreases, and the imported TC increases. The domestic mine is tightening, and the overseas mine has an unexpected increase. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average. The export window has opened [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150, the LME inventory decreased by 48, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 3 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing both at home and abroad. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel mill's production in October increases slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. The inventory remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are weak [9]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the spot premium increased by 15, the LME inventory decreased by 3100, and the LME C - 3M remained unchanged [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply may increase by 2 - 30,000 tons in October. The demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is at the historical average level. It is expected that the lead price will oscillate narrowly next week, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the tin position decreased by 1300, the LME C - 3M increased by 30, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is marginally repaired. The demand is slightly warmer during the peak season. The short - term domestic fundamentals show weak supply and demand. In the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. In the long term, buy on dips near the cost line [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 135, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 811 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply will decrease in the dry season. In Q4, the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 650, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 19 [14][15]. - **Market Analysis**: The raw material side is firm, and the lithium salt consumption and de - stocking exceed expectations. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and the de - stocking trend is maintained. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, maintain a callback buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the mine end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is recommended to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but the potential opening of the export window, it is advisable to wait and see or focus on short - selling opportunities for LME zinc. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and focus on reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with weak short - term fundamentals and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with short - term macro uncertainties and potential price - supporting motives from Indonesian policies [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic risk in the macro, the tin price has a large downside space. In the medium - to - long term, hold at low prices close to the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong with a de - stocking trend. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market conditions are dominated by tariff negotiation progress. The impact of this round of tariffs is not higher than that of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival perturbation when LME copper dropped 12% and gold rose 2.6%. There is still room for negotiations, and the progress of the South Korean negotiation should be monitored [1]. - Fundamentally, the smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream price - fixing quantity and receiving sentiment are acceptable, and the downstream price - fixing psychological price has significantly increased. The copper cable and aluminum cable starts have a significant divergence, and attention should be paid to whether the start stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules on the demand side has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September has significantly rebounded. There is seasonal inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots and bars due to the festival effect, and the de - stocking amplitude after the festival is considerable, with the apparent demand rising [1]. - The global economic recovery signs are emerging, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened, but the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, resulting in a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillates this week. On the supply side, domestic TC further decreases, and imported TC further increases. The domestic zinc ore will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas ore increment in the second quarter has exceeded expectations. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43%. In October, the smelting side has a slight month - on - month recovery [2]. - On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak and may continue to oscillate weakly after the September peak season. Overseas, the European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestically, the social inventory oscillates, and the overseas LME inventory is decreasing, with the visible inventory approaching the lowest level in the past two years [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. In terms of inventory, both domestic and overseas inventories are continuously increasing [5]. - There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. The short - term macro uncertainty has increased [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mill's production schedule in October has a slight month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. In terms of inventory, the inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are stable [9]. Lead - This week, the lead price oscillates slightly at a high level. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits is expected to lead to an incremental production of 20,000 - 50,000 tons in October. The macro sentiment combined with the tight supply of waste batteries may drive recyclers to support prices. The concentrate production has increased, and the high smelting profit of primary lead has led to a shortage of concentrates, with the TC quotation declining in a chaotic manner [11]. - On the demand side, the battery start - up rate has increased this week, but the battery finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day stocking, the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50, and the recycled lead production has gradually started discharging materials [11]. Tin - This week, the tin price oscillates. On the supply side, the ore processing fee is at a low level. Although some scattered orders have tried to raise the quotation, large - scale transactions have not occurred. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August was still low, but the recovery in October is highly expected, with an expected maintenance of over 600 metal tons. The export of Indonesia's PT Timah has resumed in mid - to - late September, and the Indonesian president announced that the tin ingot export will return to normal in 2026 [13]. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery during the solder peak season, mainly supported by rigid demand at high prices. After the festival, the arrival of goods is slow, and the domestic inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas LME inventory oscillates at a low level [13]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continue to resume production, with 35 furnaces in the west and 55 furnaces in the east. Subsequently, the number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will significantly decrease. In the dry season, the overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month. Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 will be in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, the lithium carbonate price oscillates strongly. On the raw material side, the ore end continues to support prices, and holders are reluctant to sell due to the significant reduction of previous inventories, resulting in a tight spot market [15]. - On the lithium salt side, the consumption trend and de - stocking level continue to exceed expectations. With the acceleration of warehouse receipt cancellation this week, the basis of first - tier brands also runs strongly. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and there is a de - stocking trend. In October, the de - stocking level is expected to be 8,000 - 10,000 tons. At the end of the year, there are multiple expected games such as the weakening of power demand in the off - season, the sustainability of energy - storage demand, and supply disturbances in Jiangxi [15].

Market Overview - Over 4,700 stocks declined with a trading volume of 19.5 trillion, indicating a significant capital outflow from major players, leading to a "mini stock disaster" in the A-share market [1] - Mysterious funds entered the market towards the end of trading, purchasing 230 million in stocks like BYD and Tom Cat, suggesting a potential setup for a rebound next week [1] Policy and External Factors - The central bank's sudden call to "attract foreign investment" combined with signals of tariff easing led to a surge in A50 and Hong Kong futures [3] - This policy shift appears to be a strategy by major players to create a false rebound to attract retail investors [3] Market Sentiment and Historical Context - Historical data indicates that over 80% of rebounds during periods of declining sentiment are opportunities for major players to offload stocks [5] - The "fishing" tactic of major players is likely to repeat next week, with retail investors warned to be cautious of three traps: high-tech stocks' rebounds, sudden late-session stock surges, and low-volume rebounds [6] Defensive Assets and Sector Performance - Defensive assets have become a safe haven, with the precious metals sector rising against the trend, and bank stocks attracting 200 billion from insurance funds due to dividend yields exceeding 4% [8] - The previously hot AI sector, despite favorable news, lacks performance support from the application end [8] Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Key technical levels to watch include the 3,885-point support for the Shanghai Composite Index and the 3,000-point level for the ChiNext Index [8] - Analysts suggest that if the index fails to break through the 5-day moving average during a rebound, selling is the best option [9] Market Dynamics and Trading Behavior - Quantitative trading has intensified market volatility, with a trading volume of 1.1 trillion being a "hunting zone" for quant funds [11] - The behavior of foreign capital, which tends to sell before buying back, contrasts sharply with domestic major players [8] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The innovative drug sector is gaining traction due to the ESMO annual meeting, while low-valuation blue chips are seen as defensive choices [13] - The upcoming third-quarter reports are expected to reveal underperforming stocks, particularly those that have seen significant price increases [14] Global Market Interconnections - Increased interconnectivity in global markets is noted, with the impact of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction affecting foreign capital flows [15][16] - The A-share market's rebound on October 15 coincided with a rise in Hong Kong stocks, although such correlations are often short-lived [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market turmoil signifies the end of a prolonged period of calm in the U.S. stock market, driven by multiple negative factors, indicating that market tranquility is often a precursor to volatility [1][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The VIX index, known as the "fear index," surged to 28.99, the highest level since late April, reflecting heightened investor anxiety and expectations of increased volatility [1]. - Investors are aggressively buying options that profit when the VIX reaches 47.5 and 50, showcasing collective anxiety about a looming market storm [2]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The resurgence of trade war threats, particularly following Trump's social media announcement about potential new tariffs, triggered significant market declines, ending a 33-day period of minimal volatility for the S&P 500 [4]. - Regional bank failures, highlighted by Zions Bancorp's substantial bad debt losses, have intensified concerns about the banking system's fragility, reminiscent of earlier bankruptcies [4]. - The once-prominent AI stocks are now facing skepticism, with some investors questioning whether the AI hype has turned into a dangerous bubble, drawing parallels to the late 1990s internet bubble [5]. Group 3: Market Behavior - A notable shift in capital is occurring, with funds moving from high-risk assets to defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples, indicating a "flight to safety" behavior among investors [5]. - High-risk assets, including Bitcoin, have experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping 8.7% in its worst weekly performance since February, reflecting a shift from a "greed" to a "fear" mode among investors [5]. Group 4: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts are divided, with optimists viewing the market adjustment as a healthy sign that prevents excessive overvaluation, while pessimists warn that the current high valuations, particularly in tech stocks, may indicate a dangerous bubble [6]. - Historical comparisons are being drawn to past market events, suggesting that while current conditions share similarities with previous bubbles, each market turmoil has unique contexts and causes [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant volatility due to multiple uncertainties, including trade war threats, regional bank loan defaults, and skepticism surrounding the AI bubble, marking the most turbulent period since April [1][4]. Market Volatility - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) reached a peak of 28.99, the highest level since late April, indicating heightened market fear and expectations of continued volatility [2]. - Investors are increasingly buying options that profit when the VIX rises to 47.5 and 50, reflecting growing concerns about market stability [4]. Economic Concerns - Recent declines in regional bank stocks have raised fears about the credit market, suggesting that the U.S. economy may be weaker than it appears, compounded by renewed trade war threats that could lead to a recession [4][5]. - The market's reaction to former President Trump's threat of new tariffs resulted in the largest single-day drop since April, ending a record period of calm in the S&P 500 [5]. Sector Performance - Despite strong earnings reports from major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America, the regional banking sector has faced sharp declines due to significant bad debt losses reported by Zions Bancorp [5]. - Defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples have recently outperformed, contrasting with the poor performance of banks and energy companies [5]. High-Risk Investments - High-risk assets, including Bitcoin, have seen substantial declines, with Bitcoin dropping approximately 8.7%, marking its worst weekly performance since February [6]. - Popular stocks like Opendoor Technologies have also experienced significant losses, down 5.4% [6]. Market Sentiment - Some industry insiders believe the recent market downturn does not indicate a long-term sell-off, viewing the adjustment as a healthy correction after a rapid market rise [7]. - Concerns persist regarding the market's vulnerability to shocks, as elevated valuations of large-cap stocks may mask underlying issues, reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble [8][9].

三大指数全线大跌，我却发现一个被多数人忽略的关键信号 早上九点半，当看到自选股里一片惨绿时，我的手心开始冒汗。 短短两小时，账户缩水了整整五位数，那种感觉就像坐过山车冲到最高点突然断电。 群里 早就炸锅了，有人哀嚎割肉，有人发誓再也不碰股票，更有甚者已经开始计算这个月要啃多少天泡面。 但就在这一片恐慌中，我注意到一个反常现象：平 时跌得最狠的白酒、银行板块，今天居然稳得像块石头。 这让我想起一位资深投资人说过的话："当科技股血流成河时，老登资产正在悄悄筑底。 " 这种分化不是偶然的。 回顾今年3月中下旬，市场也是类似场景。 当时银行股躺在谷底，科技股风光无限，结果到了6月，剧情完全反转——银行创新高，科技跌回起跑线。 现在 历史重演，十月份的盘面清楚显示，白酒、煤炭这些"过气"板块反而实现了正收益，银行保险更是逆势飘红。 这种轮动就像季节更替，明明还在穿短袖的 秋天，冬装已经悄悄挂进了商场橱窗。 最让人唏嘘的是科技股的遭遇。 那些追高AI概念的人，现在正经历着融资爆仓的煎熬。 我认识的一个程序员，上个月还炫耀重仓半导体赚了辆特斯拉，今天默默把微信头像换成了黑色。 市场的残酷就在于此：当你终于相信某个故事时，故 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, maintain a callback - buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the ore end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay. Keep an eye on terminal demand, and hold long - term positions on dips [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window affected by export profits, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to the opportunity of reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak. Although the geopolitical risks in Indonesia have eased, there are still disturbances at the mining end and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak overall. There is increased uncertainty in trade frictions in the short - term macro - aspect, and the Indonesian policy end has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, the lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock between 17,000 and 17,400 next week, and the subsequent destocking strength in October remains to be verified, with a weak outlook [12]. - For tin, follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are in balance in Q4 with few potential contradictions in the short - term. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [16]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side disturbance speculation is realized, and strong downward support before the disturbance is realized [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from 45 to 70, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased from 3197 to 2362, and the LME inventory decreased from 139,400 to 137,450 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be lower than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting end has over - expected production cuts and moderate inventory accumulation this week. After the sharp decline in copper price on Friday, the volume of pricing and receiving goods is expected to increase significantly next week, driving inventory destocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased from 20,990 to 20,950, and the LME inventory decreased from 508,825 to 495,325 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The operating production capacity is increasing slightly. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but the Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a certain divergence in the internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased from 22,300 to 21,920, and the LME inventory decreased from 37,950 to 38,300 [2]. - **Market Situation**: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose due to the US shutdown sentiment and the opening of the export window. The domestic TC decreased further, and the imported TC increased. The domestic zinc ore is expected to be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas zinc ore increased significantly in the second quarter. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, and the European demand is average overseas [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the SHFE nickel spot price changed slightly, and the LME inventory decreased from 6894 to 6222 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak overall, and the domestic inventory remains stable while the overseas inventory is continuously accumulating. The Indonesian mining end has continuous disturbances, and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [3][4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged at 13,550, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased from 12,700 to 12,450 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The steel mills' production schedule in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. There is inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remain stable [9]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of lead changed from - 195 to - 210, and the LME inventory decreased from 237,000 to 252,000 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The lead price rose this week due to macro - factors. The supply of recycled lead is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand may weaken after the National Day holiday. The refined - scrap price difference is - 25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons. The lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the tin position decreased from 71,221 to 63,683, and the LME inventory remained at 2575 [15]. - **Market Situation**: The tin price moved up this week due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting plants have reduced production, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has a slight recovery during the peak season. The domestic fundamentals are short - term in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the 421 Yunnan basis changed from - 185 to - 105, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 50,281 to 50,291 [16]. - **Market Situation**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The start - up in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in balance in Q4, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained at 73,000, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 42,669 to 30,456 [16]. - **Market Situation**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated this week. The overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and the salt plants have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore. The pre - holiday inventory - building is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The supply is in an over - capacity cycle, but there is inventory destocking due to seasonal factors and demand growth [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals, each with its own market situation, influencing factors, and investment strategies. For copper, maintain a buy - on - dips approach; for aluminum, hold on dips in the long - term; for zinc, suggest waiting and seeing; for nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak; for stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak; for lead, expect high - level oscillations; for tin, suggest waiting and seeing in the short - term and holding on dips in the long - term; for industrial silicon, expect price oscillations at the cycle bottom; for lithium carbonate, price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances [1][2][4]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot price of Shanghai - copper decreased by 30, the spread between waste and refined copper remained unchanged, and the inventory of SHFE increased by 3405 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is expected to be less than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting reduction exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the price drop on Friday, the volume of price - setting and receiving goods is expected to increase, driving inventory reduction. Copper cable and aluminum cable construction are diverging [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Maintain a buy - on - dips approach, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots increased by 90, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, and the inventory of SHFE remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is increasing slightly, the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there was seasonal inventory accumulation. The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthening, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a divergence in domestic and foreign market trends [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Keep an eye on terminal demand and hold on dips in the long - term [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot price of Shanghai zinc increased by 10, and the social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased [2]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose. The domestic TC decreased, and the imported TC increased. In the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, domestic zinc ore will be tighter, while overseas ore production increased significantly in the second quarter. In October, smelting capacity recovered slightly. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is decreasing [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window, it is recommended to wait and see. For the domestic - foreign spread, gradually take profits on the long - domestic - short - foreign spread and look for opportunities in the far - month reverse spread. For the inter - month spread, pay attention to the long - December - short - February spread [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 450 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the domestic inventory is stable while the overseas inventory is increasing. The Indonesian parade has subsided, but there are still disturbances in the Indonesian ore market [4]. - **Investment Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the report. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled and hot - rolled coils decreased by 100, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 50 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: In October, steel mill production increased slightly. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron are stable. There was inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the report. Lead - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the lead price rose due to macro - factors. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recovery of scrap lead production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand for batteries may weaken after the National Day. The refined - scrap spread is - 25, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 10 [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will oscillate at a high level next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,400 [14]. Tin - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the tin position decreased by 1121 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the tin price increased due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting capacity has been reduced, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has slightly improved, and the domestic inventory has decreased slightly [17]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, follow the macro - sentiment and wait and see. In the long - term, hold on dips close to the cost line [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis increased by 285, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis changed, with the warehouse receipts increasing by 343 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Xinjiang's leading enterprises are resuming production, and Sichuan and Yunnan's production is stable. There is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon will be balanced in Q4 [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From September 30 - October 14, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased by 100, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 1538 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the lithium carbonate price oscillated. Overseas mines are reluctant to sell at low prices, and traders are holding back supplies. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The market is still in a stage of over - capacity [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances, and there is strong downward price support before the disturbances [18].

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price dropped 4.5% on Friday due to Trump's tariff announcement, closing above $10,300 per ton. The current tariff impact and market panic are estimated to be lower than the Tomb - Sweeping Festival disturbance [1]. - The smelting reduction exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the sharp decline in copper price on Friday, the volume of price - fixing and goods receiving is expected to increase significantly next week, driving inventory depletion [1]. - Maintain a callback - buying strategy for copper, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventory [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - The operating capacity is increasing slightly. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September has significantly rebounded. However, there is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars due to the holiday effect [1]. - The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is strengthening. But the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, leading to a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets [1]. - The short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Keep an eye on terminal demand and hold at low prices in the long term [1]. Group 3: Zinc - The domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose this week due to the US government shutdown sentiment and the opening of the export window [2]. - The domestic TC of zinc is decreasing, and the imported TC is increasing. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas zinc ore supply increased more than expected in the second quarter [2]. - The domestic fundamentals of zinc are poor, but the export window may open due to export profits. It is recommended to wait and see under the enhanced macro - uncertainty. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to the opportunity of far - month reverse spreads. Also, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. Group 4: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is stable in China and increasing overseas. The short - term fundamentals are weak [4]. - The Indonesian protests have subsided, but there are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore sector, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices [4]. Group 5: Stainless Steel - Steel mills' production schedules in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable, and there is inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijia and Foshan, with the warehouse receipts remaining stable [9]. - The overall fundamentals are weak. The short - term macro - trade friction uncertainty increases, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. Group 6: Lead - The lead price rose this week due to macro factors. The supply of recycled lead is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October, and the primary lead concentrate is in short supply [13]. - The battery production rate increased this week, but the finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day, the demand may weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons [13]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level next week, ranging from 17,000 to 17,400 [13]. Group 7: Tin - The tin price moved up this week due to macro factors. The domestic processing fee for tin ore is low, and some domestic smelters have reduced production. Overseas supply is expected to recover in October [16]. - The demand for solder has slightly improved during the peak season, mainly supported by rigid demand. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased, and the overseas LME inventory is fluctuating at a low level [16]. - The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long term [16]. Group 8: Industrial Silicon - A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The start - up in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are balanced in Q4 [17]. - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [17]. Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated this week. Overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and traders are reluctant to sell, but salt factories have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore [17]. - The pre - holiday inventory - building rhythm was strong first and then weak and is now approaching the end. The spot basis is stable and slightly weak, and some discounts have widened by 100 - 200 yuan [17]. - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, and the static supply - demand pattern is still in surplus. With the help of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy - storage demand, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, but the amplitude is average [17].