Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists report that tariffs may have increased prices for goods with supply chains extending overseas, such as home goods, entertainment, and communication products [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Inflation Impact - Last month, airfare prices may have rebounded, but Goldman Sachs predicts that due to expected declines in used car prices and stable new car prices, the overall core inflation rate for June may be approximately 0.23% month-on-month [1] - The team anticipates that the monthly inflation rate for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will range between 0.3% and 0.4% in the coming months due to the potential severe impacts of tariffs [1]

美联储哈玛克：我们不确定关税会有什么影响。 ...

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：尚未看到高盛关于关税的报告。 ...

曾令投资者在4月惊慌失措的"特朗普关税噩梦"——价格飙升、货架空空、供应链混乱、经济衰退—— 至今尚未成真。而即便美方在全球贸易谈判中反复无常，金融市场却开始显得愈发淡定。 然而本周，随着摩根大通(JPM.N)与奈飞(NFLX.O)等巨头率先披露二季度财报，投资者的"新淡定"情绪 将迎来首次真正考验，更多企业高管也将在财报会上分享他们对经济和贸易环境的判断。 Aptus Capital Advisors的股票主管兼投资经理Dave Wagner表示，这些财报也将是对新关税影响的"第一 次真实测试"，因为这些影响尚未反映在第一季度的数据中。 在过去三个月，分析师下调企业盈利预期的幅度略高于往常，原因正是越来越多的企业对全球贸易环境 的不确定性持谨慎态度。同时，另一个华尔街关注重点——利润率——也预计会出现环比下滑。 根据FactSet数据，市场预计标普500成分股公司第二季度每股盈利将同比增长4.8%，为自2023年第四季 度以来最低增幅；净利润率预计为12.2%，低于第一季度的12.7%，但与去年同期持平，仍高于五年平 均值11.8%。 多家公司已发出预警：沃尔玛(WMT.N)和美泰(MAT.O)指出关税将推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main supporting factors for the market include declining interest rates, strong employment, and high profitability of large enterprises [1][6][7] Group 1: Market Performance - Cross-border US stock ETFs listed in China have returned to historical highs, with the Nasdaq ETF and US 50 ETF net values reported at 2.039 and 1.3 respectively [1] - The performance of domestic ETFs is closely aligned with recent trends in US stocks, particularly driven by technology giants [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its target for US stocks, predicting a 12-month point forecast of 6900, up from 6500 [1][6] Group 2: Tariff Impact - There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on US corporate profits and inflation, with recent data showing that tariff revenues have increased without a corresponding rise in inflation [1][4] - Morgan Stanley indicates that some sectors are experiencing deflationary signs, as companies may consider lowering prices instead of raising them due to high inventory levels [4][5] - The increase in tariffs has not yet translated into higher consumer prices, partly because companies are still selling old inventory purchased before the tariffs were announced [4][5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US economy is expected to slow down, with GDP growth forecasted to be 1.6% and 1.2% over the next two years [6] - The labor market remains strong, providing the Federal Reserve with room to potentially lower interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points in the next 12 months [6] - The strong earnings growth of the S&P 500, particularly from the "Tech Seven," has been a key source of resilience in the market, with a year-on-year EPS growth of 12% in Q1 [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Concerns remain regarding the future of US stocks, particularly with the elevated forward P/E ratio of 22, which is at the 97th percentile since 1980 [6][7] - The main uncertainty lies in how effectively companies can pass on tariff costs to consumers, which could impact profit margins and future earnings growth [7] - If companies maintain expansionary profit margins and benefit from fiscal stimulus, earnings growth may exceed expectations [7]

虽然市场对最新一轮关税威胁反应平淡，但投资者切不可掉以轻心。美银和摩根大通均发出警告，美国面临的滞胀风险正在上升，这可能比短期关税波动 更具威胁性。 美国政府此前宣布新一轮关税措施。据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布致墨西哥和欧盟的信件，宣 布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。而根据之前信息，日本和韩国面临25%的关税税率，巴西则面临高达50% 的惩罚性关税。 据追风交易台信息，美银分析师在7月11日的报告中表示，如果这些威胁全面落实，美国有效关税税率将从目前的13.4%升至14.9%，而在"无协议"情景 下更可能达到18-20%的水平。 分析师警告，新关税措辞增加了滞胀的风险，即更高的通货膨胀和更低的经济活动，因为不确定性增加，且在关税提高和供应链中断共同导致的供应冲击 对通货膨胀预期影响的推动下，通胀预期上升。 在这种情况下，由于担心关税对通胀的滞后影响，美联储不太可能边际降息。企业为避免失去市场份额，会平稳地将成本转嫁到价格上。从时间上延 续"先升级再降级"的策略，而这只会增加美联储观望的可能。 下半年不确定性将持 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17085 | 10 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2017 | -20 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -30 | 10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 94820 | -1037 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1632 | 407 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 55130 | 2229 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 55149 | 1846 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 249375 | -3000 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16875 | -50 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17040 | -30 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -210 | -60 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -33.62 | -11.04 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) WB ...

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of July 11, 2025. The video was published on July 13, 2025. The president spent this week ramping up his threats while extending the deadline by which the higher tariffs will start to be collected. ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overseas tariff disturbances have resurfaced, but the impact is controllable. The fundamentals show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Primary and secondary lead smelters are resuming production, but the supply recovery is slow. Meanwhile, demand is entering the peak season, and some battery companies are stocking up as usual, with the enterprise operating rate continuously improving month - on - month. Short - term inventory increases suppress the enthusiasm of long - position funds. The expectation of improved demand and rigid cost support the lead price. The contradiction between long and short positions is limited, and it is expected that the lead price will fluctuate and wait for the effective realization of the peak season [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From July 4th to July 11th, the SHFE lead price decreased from 17,295 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, a drop of 220 yuan/ton; the LME lead price decreased from 2,057 dollars/ton to 2,017 dollars/ton, a drop of 40 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.41 to 8.47, an increase of 0.06. The SHFE inventory increased from 53,303 tons to 55,149 tons, an increase of 1,846 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 263,275 tons to 249,375 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons. The social inventory increased from 5.79 million tons to 6.11 million tons, an increase of 0.32 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 195 yuan/ton to - 225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2508 fluctuated within a narrow range, with the final closing price at 17,075 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.27%. The LME lead price fluctuated horizontally around 2,050 dollars/ton, with the final closing price at 2,017 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 1.94%. In the spot market, there were still differences in the shipment of electrolytic lead smelters. Some enterprises increased the discount for shipment, while others had firm quotes. The recycled lead smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, and some raised prices for shipment. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand at low prices and preferred to purchase the ex - factory goods of electrolytic lead smelters, with part of the demand diverted to recycled lead, while the warehouse goods transactions remained sluggish. As of July 11th, the LME weekly inventory was 249,375 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,900 tons; the SHFE inventory was 55,149 tons, an increase of 1,846 tons compared with last week. As of July 10th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.11 million tons, an increase of 0.42 million tons compared with Monday and an increase of 0.32 million tons compared with last Thursday [5][6]. 3. Industry News - As of July 11th, the average weekly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were reported at 550 yuan/metal ton and - 50 dollars/dry ton respectively, both remaining unchanged. Near the shipping period of the US REDDOG lead mine, the previously undecided additional tariff negotiation will eventually end with both the buyer and the seller bearing half each, and the lead will enter the domestic market in late Q3 [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, inventory situations, lead ingot premiums, the price difference between primary and recycled lead, the price of waste batteries, the profit situation of recycled lead enterprises, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of natural rubber futures is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. The interference of weather in the main producing areas supports the raw material price to remain firm, terminal demand has improved, and the "anti - involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, driving the rubber market higher [8][83] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, while aggressive investors can consider buying on dips [9][84] Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 13,900 to 14,185 yuan/ton, showing an upward - trending oscillation and a slight overall increase. As of the close on July 11, 2025, it closed at 14,360 yuan/ton, up 355 points or 2.53% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of July 11, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,280 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [21] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two slightly shrank. As of July 11, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 10 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton narrower than the previous week [24] - As of July 11, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared to the previous week [26] Important Market Information - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [28] - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe in multiple rate cuts this year, while others are cautious due to tariff - induced inflation concerns [27][29][30] - China's June CPI rose year - on - year, and PPI declined month - on - month. The auto market showed signs of recovery in June [32][33][34] Supply - side Situation - As of May 31, 2025, the total output of natural rubber in major producing countries was 722,700 tons, an increase of 217,500 tons or 43.05% from the previous month [40] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly output of synthetic rubber was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%; the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [44][48] - As of May 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [51] Demand - side Situation - As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 72.92%, up 2.51% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.56%, up 0.81% from the previous week [54] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% and a month - on - month increase of 1.14%; monthly sales were 2.6863 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.15% and a month - on - month increase of 3.74% [58][61] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 88,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.59% and a month - on - month increase of 1.26% [66] - As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [69] - As of May 31, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 61.82 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 7.17% [74] Inventory - side Situation - As of July 11, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 188,690 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from the previous week [81] - As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 200 tons or 0.02%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45% [81] - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons or 0.05%; the bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [81] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period. Recent weather disturbances in major producing areas have restricted glue output, but there is a strong expectation of increased supply later. In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41% [82] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded. The terminal auto market showed signs of recovery in June, and consumption - boosting policies were continuously introduced. In May 2025, China's tire exports increased year - on - year [82] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's natural rubber social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory changed little [82] 后市展望 - The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. Key factors to watch include weather in major rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, EU anti - dumping investigation updates, and Sino - US tariff changes [83] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, while aggressive investors can consider buying on dips [9][84]