Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The improvement in the macro - atmosphere has driven the rebound of oil prices. However, if the tariff issue is not effectively resolved, it will still suppress the market in the long - term. The supply of PX has tightened, and the demand has been further consolidated. The fundamentals of supply and demand may improve, and market confidence has increased. [2] - With the rise in oil prices and many PTA device overhauls, PTA has accelerated inventory reduction this week. In the short term, PTA spot prices will mainly fluctuate with the cost. The polyester factory starts at the beginning of the month, and there may be pressure on the shipment of polyester filament later. The downstream polyester maintains high - level operation in May, which alleviates concerns about the decline in market demand. [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has increased. The supply - side quotes have mostly followed the upward adjustment, and the market trading atmosphere is average. Some overhauled devices are expected to restart, and the downstream will mainly consume inventory in the short term. [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner, waiting for the results of the China - US talks. [2] Summary by Related Content Price Information - **Upstream**: On May 7, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $58.07 per barrel, down 1.73% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $61.12 per barrel, down 1.66%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $562 per ton, up 1.31%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $657.5 per ton, up 2.65%. [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4466 yuan per ton, up 2.38%; the settlement price was 4458 yuan per ton, up 2.29%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4482 yuan per ton, down 1.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4565 yuan per ton, up 1.90%. [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6288 yuan per ton, up 2.58%; the settlement price was 6270 yuan per ton, up 2.52%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 5918 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $206 per ton, up 7.15%; the PX - MX spread was $110.5 per ton, up 3.76%. [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5778 yuan per ton, up 1.55%; the settlement price was 5772 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5780 yuan per ton, up 1.58%; in the South China market, it was 5830 yuan per ton, up 1.75%. [1] - **Downstream**: On May 7, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6380 yuan per ton, up 0.95%; the price index of polyester chip was 5660 yuan per ton, up 1.62%; the price index of bottle - grade chip was 5780 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.18% on May 7, 2025. The PTA factory load rate was 71.03%, down 2.90% from the previous value. The load rates of polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged. [1] Production and Sales - On May 7, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 61%, an increase of 31 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 125%, an increase of 52 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 70%, an increase of 32 percentage points. [1] Device Information - Hengli Petrochemical plans to overhaul the 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in Huizhou on April 28 and the 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Dalian around May 10, and will reduce the contract supply in May. [2] Transaction Strategy - Driven by crude oil, the TA2509 contract closed at 4466 yuan per ton (up 2.48%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.3 million lots. Due to the PX overhaul season, the supply decreased, and the 2509 contract closed at 6288 yuan per ton (up 2.81%), with an intraday trading volume of 27,050 lots. PR followed the cost, and the 2506 contract closed at 5778 yuan per ton (up 1.69%), with an intraday trading volume of 26,300 lots. [2]

021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员： ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月8日） 1. 据Mysteel，限产消息对东北区域影响有限，吉林区域由于近年钢厂生产意愿持续低迷还处于减量状 态，故与限产难有关联；至于辽黑两地限产消息影响几何，也需等政策最终落地方能知晓。 2. 路透公布对USDA 5月供需报告中美国农作物产量的数据预测，分析师平均预计，美国2025/2026年度 大豆产量料为43.38亿蒲式耳，预估区间介于43-44亿蒲式耳，USDA农业展望论坛为43.7亿蒲式耳。 3. 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）预计，巴西5月大豆出口为1260万吨，去年同期为1347万吨；豆粕 出口预计为187万吨，去年同期为197万吨。 4. 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至5月5日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存环比 上升了0.1%，达到2074.2万桶。其中，中质馏分油库存下降了20%，至173万桶，为七个月低点。 5. 据SMM了解，近期华南市场光伏玻璃企业部分报价下调至13元/平方米，主要原因为组件需求以及组 件价格的下降使组件企业对原料接受心态下降，原报价无接单，为促进接单，局部报价下调，预计后续 光伏玻璃市场或将出现普遍下调预 ...

纽约市场棉花期货上涨1%至每磅68.52美分。 ...

多头提前撤退！美联储今夜"按兵不动"对金价有何影响？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

期货热点追踪 铜价波动加剧：贸易谈判在即，市场预期如何？ 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On May 7, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5598, down 0.39%. The ferro - silicon 2506 contract closed at 5430, up 0.04%. The iron alloy production profit is negative, and the spot production enthusiasm is low. For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream hot - metal production may have peaked. For ferro - silicon, the steel demand expectation is generally weak. Manganese - silicon should be treated as oscillating weakly, and ferro - silicon should be treated as oscillating. Investors should control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Manganese - silicon (SM)**: The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,598 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the position was 660,341 hands, up 5,988 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 27,105 hands, unchanged; the 9 - 5 contract spread was 74 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 123,166, down 1,405; the basis of the main contract was 12 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2]. - **Ferro - silicon (SF)**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5,430 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the position was 461,065 hands, up 21,684 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 10,455 hands, unchanged; the 9 - 5 contract spread was 26 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 17,881, up 19; the basis of the main contract was 120 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Manganese - silicon**: The price of Inner Mongolia FeMn68Si18 was 5,610 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guizhou's was 5,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Yunnan's was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5,602.42 yuan/ton, down 94.58 yuan [2]. - **Ferro - silicon**: The price of Inner Mongolia FeSi75 - B was 5,510 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai's was 5,520 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia's was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Manganese - silicon**: The price of South African Mn38 lump ore at Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the manganese ore port inventory was 405.50 million tons, up 32.80 million tons [2]. - **Ferro - silicon**: The price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Manganese - silicon**: The enterprise start - up rate was 40.74%, down 0.85 percentage points; the supply was 182,805 tons, down 3,255 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 181,800 tons, up 24,200 tons; the national steel mill inventory was 15.44 days, down 1.17 days; the demand of the five major steel types was 128,211 tons, up 1,462 tons [2]. - **Ferro - silicon**: The enterprise start - up rate was 30.75%, down 0.16 percentage points; the supply was 99,000 tons, up 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 83,600 tons, down 11,200 tons; the national steel mill inventory was 15.44 days, down 0.82 days; the demand of the five major steel types was 20,560.40 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 84.35%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 92.03%, up 0.41 percentage points; the monthly crude steel output was 92.8414 million tons, up 16.8722 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - When China's steel exports are at the level of 60 - 70 million tons, there are few trade frictions, indicating that the world steel market needs Chinese steel. - In April, the Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) was 50.7, 1.2 percentage points lower than in March, reaching the lowest in seven months in the expansion range. - In Q1 2025, China's steel exports continued the "one increase and three decreases" trend of last year, and imports continued the pattern of decreasing volume and increasing price. - South Korea imposed a five - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled stainless steel coils from Vietnam [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market - **Manganese - silicon**: The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 110 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 420 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement was cautious, and the tender quantity decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Ferro - silicon**: The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 130 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 70 yuan/ton [2]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - For both manganese - silicon and ferro - silicon, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages [2].

，短线参与为主。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9335 | 119 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2565 | 17 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 139 302424 | -10 菜粕月间价差(9-1) ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2239 | 20 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -67 | 2 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 725631 | 32553 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -91038 | -4449 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7754 | -80 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2410 | -10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2115 | -15 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 295 | 5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 171 | -30 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 268 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 340 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 250 | -6 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -72 | NAN | | 上游情况 | NYM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, polysilicon showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 36,410 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.39%, and the open interest decreased by 510 lots to 53,756 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 4,090 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 8,325 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.57%, and the open interest increased by 12,934 lots to 17,950 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,637 yuan/ton, down 128 yuan/ton from the last trading day before the holiday. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 280 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, traders cleared their inventories and pressured prices, and the downstream's willingness to stock up was lower than in previous years. After the holiday, the downstream demand still faced the pressure of a slowdown. Industrial silicon was affected by the negative feedback from the downstream and was difficult to get out of the bottom-finding rhythm. The adjustment flexibility of polysilicon production was relatively high, and the space for a sharp decline after the holiday was relatively limited compared with industrial silicon, mainly showing a narrow correction. Opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months could be considered. Attention should be paid to whether large-scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies will be newly introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which may trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 8,370 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with a decrease of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan to 280 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69,236, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory decreased by 1,330 tons to 346,180 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 5,900 tons to 244,100 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons to 409,100 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 835 yuan/ton to 36,410 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 40,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 835 yuan to 4,090 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 30, the GFE inventory increased by 60,000 tons to 90,000 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 28.37 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 28.4 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][13]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [16][18][20]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [23][26]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [29][31][32].