Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the consumer sector, particularly in the areas of healthcare, food and beverage, and retail, following the recent government policies aimed at stimulating consumption after the Two Sessions [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector is experiencing a notable recovery, with significant growth observed in healthcare, beauty, and food and beverage sectors post-policy implementation [1]. - The overall strategy for the consumer sector is categorized into three directions: Strong, Change, and New [2][3]. Strong Segments - **Consumer Export**: Key players include Xiaogoods City, Miniso, and Anker Innovations, leveraging China's strong manufacturing supply chain for global branding [3][4]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: The sector is expected to benefit from rising gold prices, with companies like Lao Fengxiang and Chow Tai Fook identified as strong performers. The anticipated recovery in demand is expected to materialize by Q2 2025 [6][8]. Change Segments - Companies undergoing significant transformations, such as Shanghai Jahwa and Xiyu Tourism, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [10][14]. - The beauty sector is also seen as having a significant opportunity for growth, particularly with the decline in advertising costs on platforms like Douyin [9][10]. New Consumption Trends - New consumption habits are emerging, with brands like Lao Pu Gold and Mi Xue Group being recognized for their innovative approaches and market positioning [11][12][13]. - The tea beverage market is highlighted, with Mi Xue Group being a standout performer due to its strong brand and profitability [13]. Healthcare Sector Insights - The healthcare segment, particularly in ophthalmology, is showing strong recovery, with companies like Purui Eye Hospital and Aier Eye Hospital expected to see revenue growth of 15-20% in Q1 [32][33][34]. - The overall trend in consumer healthcare is positive, with a notable increase in patient flow and service demand [33][36]. OTC and Pharmacy Recommendations - The OTC market, particularly in pediatric medicine, is expected to recover, with companies like Jianmin Group and Huate Dain being recommended for their growth potential [38][41][42]. - The pharmacy sector is also showing signs of recovery, with leading companies achieving positive growth despite previous challenges [38][39]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the consumer sector's recovery, with expectations of policy support and market improvements in the coming quarters [22][23]. - The conference emphasized the importance of identifying companies that have already shown signs of recovery and are positioned for growth as the market stabilizes [16][21][24]. Conclusion - The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the consumer sector's current state and future potential, highlighting key companies and trends that investors should monitor for opportunities in the coming year [43].

这是新消费智库第 2 6 1 6 期文章 新消费导读 1.Crocs携手Marimek ko推出首款合作系列 2.怡宝魔力运动饮料1L装新品全国上市 3. Inner Brightnes s推出Ak kermans ia益生菌补充剂 4.必胜客披萨有蛇出没 5.承德露露跨界推出露露草本「养生饮」 6.圣农发展拟11.26亿元收购太阳谷剩余54%股权 7.达能拟在德国爱他美工厂进行重大投资 8.美国拟成立Ti kTok美国独立公司，亚马逊等多方竞购 9.联合利华宣布收购Wi ld 10.Safi lo收购眼镜品牌Blender s多数股权 11.真维斯关闭澳洲所有门店 12.ZITA TAN发布2025秋冬系列 13.上美股份AI智能化妆品无人车间已正式投产 14.GymNation打造全球首个于健身房中的酒店 15.AUTEUR发布「星际漫游」系列 新消费 1.Crocs携手Marimek ko推出首款合作系列 怡宝官宣魔力运动饮料1L装新品全国上市。新品特别添加电解质、氨基酸、GLU葡萄糖和维生素B6，助力身体代谢、提供能量，1L大容量， 为不同流汗场景提供补充。（食业头条） 3. Inner Bright ...

Group 1 - The fifth China International Consumer Products Expo opened in Hainan on April 13, featuring over 1,700 consumer enterprises and more than 4,100 brands from over 71 countries and regions, showcasing emerging consumption trends in fashion, technology, health, and services [2][4] - A new consumption technology exhibition area was established at the expo, highlighting innovative products that enhance consumer experiences through advanced technology [4] - Canadian company Aina's Nutri Sleep 6S sleep machine utilizes charged particle flow technology to improve sleep quality, aligning with new consumption trends focused on health and wellness [6] Group 2 - EHang's EH216 series of unmanned aerial vehicles were showcased, with the EH216-S set to become the world's first eVTOL to receive all three necessary certifications for commercial operation, indicating a significant advancement in low-altitude economy [7] - Pizhou Huang's booth featured traditional Chinese medicine products and health supplements, emphasizing the integration of cultural elements and innovation to meet market health demands [8] - The Honey Snow Ice City booth in the domestic specialty products area highlighted the brand's efforts to enhance product offerings and engage consumers through cultural elements, demonstrating the effectiveness of the expo in connecting brands with customers [10] Group 3 - The Singapore exhibition group showcased various health management products, marking their first participation in the expo, and expressed intentions to leverage the platform to expand into the Chinese market [13]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Recovery - The military electronics sector has shown signs of a bottom reversal trend, with delayed orders expected to be released in the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, accompanied by new equipment procurement leading to a stocking cycle [3] - At the recent GTC conference, NVIDIA announced its future technology roadmap, highlighting a surge in AI computing demand, developments in silicon photonics technology, and advancements in the robotics field [3] Group 2: Rare Earth Industry Transformation - The industrialization of humanoid robots is accelerating, with large-scale applications expected to open new growth curves for the rare earth magnetic materials market starting in 2025 [4] - According to EVTank data, global sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach 18.236 million units in 2024, continuing to drive demand for rare earth magnetic materials [4] - Each megawatt of permanent magnet direct-drive motors requires 0.8-1 ton of rare earth magnetic materials, and the increasing capacity of wind power installations will continue to boost demand [4] - The Chinese government has strengthened the optimization of rare earth resources and market order through new regulations, which will enhance industry transparency and promote sustainable utilization of rare earth resources [4] - The rapid development of humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, new energy vehicles, and wind power, along with policy-driven supply-side reforms, will create new growth opportunities for the rare earth industry [4] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Performance - The innovative drug segment of the company has shown strong revenue growth, with a decrease in sales expense ratio (29.79%, down 3.41 percentage points year-on-year), enhancing overall profitability [5] - Existing products like Camrelizumab, Pyrotinib, Apatinib, and Remimazolam continue to expand their market through new indications [5] - GLP-1 class innovative drugs (HRS-7535, HRS-9531, HRS-4729) have been licensed to Kailera in the U.S., with expected maximum revenue of $6.035 billion (including an upfront payment of $110 million) [5] - DLL3ADC innovative drug (SHR-4849) has been licensed to IDEAYA in the U.S., with expected maximum revenue of $1.045 billion (including an upfront payment of $75 million) [5] Group 4: New Consumption Trends - In 2024, consumer shopping motivations for self-satisfaction and personal expression have increased by 9% and 1% respectively, driving the growth of emotion-driven consumption markets such as the millet economy (market size of 168.9 billion yuan, up 40.6% year-on-year) and temple economy [6] - The smart home and digital cultural tourism markets continue to grow, with a rapid shift towards online consumption reflected in the fast development of live e-commerce and instant retail [6] - The consumption tendencies of younger demographics reflect generational influences and higher life and work pressures, leading them to fulfill emotional needs through consumption [6] - Government policies are continuously promoting the rise of new consumption, particularly through the integration of "artificial intelligence + consumption" to foster innovative development in consumption scenarios, especially in emerging fields like health and elderly care, and cultural tourism [6] - The experiences of developed economies like the U.S. and Japan indicate significant changes in consumption structure following economic advancement, a trend expected to gradually manifest in China [6] - With declining birth and marriage rates, smaller family sizes are driving consumption demand from single households and younger groups, particularly in personal care and jewelry sectors [6] Group 5: eVTOL Industry Progress - Since 2023, companies like EHang have successfully obtained the world's first type certificate (TC), standard airworthiness certificate (AC), and production certificate (PC) for eVTOL, marking the entry into mass production [5] - Government policy support and the gradual improvement of regulations indicate that airworthiness certification for eVTOL will accelerate, providing assurance for rapid industry development [5]

而在过去两年，宏观经济的关键变量在于内需。 2023年，消费对于经济增长的贡献率达到了82.5%，2024年虽然降至44.5%，但依然是最大的贡献力 量。在今年两会期间，"扩大内需"更是上升至今年政府工作报告十大重点任务之首。 刺激内需不仅成为了政策端发力的重点，在资本市场中也成为了率先受益于经济复苏的方向。换句话来 说，找到内需增长的β也就意味着找到了消费行业的下一个机会。 距离消费板块2020年的辉煌已经过去了四年多的时间，资本市场对其的关注度却从未减少过。 2025年3月13日，呼和浩特推出了全国力度最强的育儿补贴政策，唤醒了人们沉睡许久的消费投资热 情：次日消费板块迎来了全面爆发，食品饮料ETF（515170）的涨幅也一度高达5.09%。 事实上， 消费作为一个顺周期的行业，板块性行情往往会同步于宏观经济拐点的出现 。根据信达证券 研究报告，在经济见底后的半年内以及经济回升期中，与经济增速较为敏感的行业会有超额收益；最具 有代表性的便是消费板块，在这两个阶段消费板块的胜率和月度超额收益都好于其他板块[1]。 结构性的增长 自 2024年 以 来，老铺黄金、泡泡玛特等公司的巨大涨幅让 资本市场再一次感受 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the emergence of new consumption trends driven by emotional value and the integration of supply-side innovations, highlighting a shift towards personalized and diversified consumption [2][4][10] - On the demand side, there is a significant increase in consumption focused on emotional value, with "self-pleasing" consumption projected to grow by 40.6% in 2024, and social consumption, represented by sports and entertainment goods, expected to rise by 11.1% [2][10][23] - The supply side shows a notable trend of integration across different fields, with the IP industry experiencing an average growth rate of 13.1% from 2019 to 2024, and the tourism and cultural sectors also expanding significantly [2][32][39] Group 2 - The rise of new consumption is attributed to generational changes, economic characteristics, and upgrades in consumption supply, with younger consumers (ages 18-34) being the primary drivers of emotional consumption [4][49][50] - The youth demographic is increasingly focused on emotional value due to factors such as high unemployment rates and increased work pressure, leading to a greater emphasis on self-pleasing and home-based consumption [4][61][62] - Supply-side improvements, including increased R&D investments in sectors like automotive and electrical machinery, are facilitating the intelligent upgrade of consumption offerings [4][62][68] Group 3 - Future growth potential for new consumption is reinforced by economic growth, demographic shifts, and improvements in consumption supply, with service consumption expected to rise as GDP per capita increases [6][74][83] - The trend of smaller family units and declining birth rates in developed countries is likely to further enhance new consumption demand, as seen in the U.S. and Japan [7][74][75] - The importance of "consumption-related infrastructure" is being elevated, with government spending in education, healthcare, and social security expected to support the enhancement of new consumption supply [8][102][106]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" indicates a significant policy shift towards boosting consumption, with unprecedented support from fiscal, credit, and local government initiatives [1][5]. Group 1: Structural Consumption Upgrade - The structural consumption upgrade characterized by "new demographics, new technology, and new scenarios" is expected to experience explosive growth [2]. - Private consumption in China accounts for less than 40% of GDP, compared to over 50% in Japan and over 60% in the U.S., indicating substantial potential for growth [2]. - Emerging consumer groups such as Generation Z and the "silver economy" are expected to drive demand in sectors like trendy toys and pet products [2]. Group 2: Traditional Consumption Recovery - The consumption sector, particularly food and beverage, has faced declines due to weak demand and high valuations, but these factors may be reversing [4][6]. - The government has prioritized consumption recovery in its economic agenda, with specific measures to stimulate demand and improve the consumption environment [5]. - Traditional consumption is anticipated to recover as housing and stock markets stabilize, alongside innovations in products and distribution channels [7]. Group 3: Dairy Industry Insights - The dairy industry is at a potential turning point, with policy support and cost improvements creating a favorable environment for growth [8]. - Recent policies, such as tiered childbirth subsidies, are expected to enhance demand for infant formula, with projections indicating a 1.2%-1.8% increase in demand from 2025 to 2027 [8]. - The current low price of raw milk and the completion of capacity adjustments suggest a potential recovery in profit margins for dairy companies [9]. Group 4: High-End Brand Development - Chinese high-end brands are reshaping the market by focusing on product and experience value rather than brand premiums, appealing to a more rational consumer base [10]. - The shift towards local cultural elements and unique positioning has allowed these brands to thrive despite overall consumption slowdowns [10]. Group 5: Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is entering a cyclical turning point, with government policies stimulating demand through trade-in programs [11]. - The sector is expected to benefit from long-term trends such as urbanization and rising demand for home renovations [11]. - Current valuations in the home furnishing sector are at historical lows, presenting attractive investment opportunities for high-dividend companies [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on the market, indicating that the cost-effectiveness of chasing high points is low, particularly around the 25,000 mark [2][3]. Core Insights - The current market exhibits extreme structural characteristics, with the technology sector driving index gains, while macro policies like monetary easing and fiscal policies are crucial for the expansion of other sectors [3][4]. - Southbound capital has become a significant driving force for the rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, with an expected inflow of nearly 200 billion HKD for the year, primarily from personal private equity and trend trading funds [3][11]. - The Hong Kong stock market's placement mechanism leads to almost unlimited chip supply, which can dilute the holdings of southbound capital, limiting its absolute pricing power [3][13]. - The U.S. stock market is influenced by AI, geopolitical issues, and policy uncertainties, with some bubbles already deflated, indicating a phase of bubble formation rather than a burst [3][14][15]. - The fiscal policy in 2025 will focus more on demand stimulation, particularly in the consumer sector, emphasizing the "investment in people" concept to enhance future supply potential and current consumption demand [3][25][34]. Summary by Sections Market Structure and Future Strategies - The market is characterized by a significant reliance on the technology sector, which constitutes about 40% of the Hang Seng Index, while the remaining 60% depends on macro policies [4]. - The performance of the new consumption sector in the Hong Kong market reflects structural opportunities and market sentiment recovery, benefiting from national trends and young consumer preferences [3][35][39]. Southbound Capital Dynamics - Southbound capital has seen a significant increase in inflow, averaging over 8 billion HKD daily since the Spring Festival, compared to over 3 billion HKD last year [11]. - Despite the increase in holdings, southbound capital does not possess absolute pricing power due to the open financial market and the stock placement mechanism [12][13]. U.S. Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market is currently facing several challenges, including AI-driven disruptions and policy uncertainties, which could affect the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [14][19]. - The valuation of the U.S. stock market remains high, but some bubbles have been deflated, making certain leading stocks' valuations more reasonable [15][17][23]. Consumer Sector Insights - The report highlights the importance of consumer demand in fiscal policy, with a focus on enhancing living standards through investments in education, healthcare, and social security [25][26][34]. - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumption have been comprehensive, addressing various factors affecting consumer behavior and emphasizing quality supply to stimulate demand [37][38]. New Consumption Trends - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is expected to maintain rapid growth, driven by changing consumer preferences and the emergence of structural opportunities [35][36][39]. - The report suggests that the new consumption sector's performance is independent of traditional quality consumption factors, indicating a shift in market dynamics [35][36].

Group 1: Consumption Policy and Market Trends - The government is expected to implement policies to promote childbirth, with significant subsidies announced in Hohhot, which may catalyze demand in the maternal and infant sector, benefiting companies like Aiyingshi and Haiziwang [6][8] - The retail sector is seeing a shift towards quality supermarkets, driven by consumer demand for better product quality, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Chongqing Department Store expected to expand [7][8] - The "AI + Consumption" initiative is being emphasized, with potential growth in sectors like AI-integrated eyewear and e-commerce, highlighting companies such as Mingyue Optical and Ruoyuchen [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Aimeike plans to acquire REGEN Biotech, which could enhance its market position and valuation, as the acquisition is expected to provide significant growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [3] - The 3.8 promotion event on platforms like Tmall and Douyin showed strong performance, with brands like Juzi and Marubi exceeding expectations, indicating a robust recovery in the beauty sector [4][5] - Gaode Beauty reported a 9.3% increase in net sales for 2024, with significant growth in its aesthetic injection segment, particularly in China, where new products are expected to drive further growth [6]

Summary of the Conference Call for Miniso Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Miniso, a retail company, discussing its valuation and business performance in the context of the broader market and its competitor, Yonghui Superstores [3][5]. Key Points Valuation and Market Perception - Miniso's current market capitalization is approximately 50 billion HKD, while projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 3.45 billion and 4.2 billion RMB respectively. Based on a 20x P/E ratio, Miniso should be valued at over 80 billion RMB, around 90 billion HKD. The market's pessimistic outlook on Yonghui's losses is a primary reason for Miniso's undervaluation [3][4][5]. Yonghui Superstores Impact - The market anticipates Yonghui will incur a loss of 6 billion RMB next year, which is considered overly pessimistic. Historical data shows Yonghui's maximum loss was around 4.5 billion RMB, and the company is undergoing store adjustments and supply chain restructuring to improve profitability [4][5]. Domestic Business Performance - Miniso's domestic revenue share is expected to fall below 55% this year. Despite a 4% year-on-year decline in same-store sales, recovery is strong, with sales returning to 96%-100% of previous levels. The company plans to open 450 to 550 new stores to drive growth, minimizing reliance on same-store sales [4][6]. Overseas Business Growth - The overseas segment is identified as a core growth driver, benefiting from accelerated expansion, foreign exchange gains, and tax refunds. The depreciation of the RMB is projected to yield tens of millions in net profit, and the U.S. tax refund policy will continue to positively impact finances [4][7]. Market Conditions and Consumer Confidence - Recent consumer policies and increased foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks are favorable for new consumption sectors, enhancing investor confidence in Miniso and similar companies. The new consumption sector is undergoing a revaluation after two years of being undervalued [4][8]. Future Performance Expectations - Positive catalysts are expected following the Q2 earnings release, particularly in May. The market is focused on future guidance and expectations regarding Yonghui. The Q4 performance is already prepared, and the domestic business has experienced a downturn, leading to a currently low valuation [4][9]. Potential Risks - A recent safety issue regarding disposable underwear has minimal impact on Miniso, as this product accounts for a very small portion of revenue. Even if sales of this product were halted, the profit impact would be negligible [4][10][11]. Operational Strategy in the U.S. - Following the appointment of a new CEO in the U.S., the focus will be on optimizing revenue and costs, controlling store opening speed, and reducing rent and labor costs to enhance profitability. The overseas business is expected to grow at 40%, with direct stores growing at 60% and agency stores at 20% [4][12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation Outlook - Profit forecasts for the next two years suggest net profits corresponding to P/E ratios of 14x and 11x. The current valuation is around 10-11x, indicating significant undervaluation. A correction to a reasonable valuation of around 20x is anticipated, making Miniso one of the most promising companies this year [4][13].