Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened lower, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices turned positive, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin experienced a significant drop [1][2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell over 1%, with individual stocks like Xunlei rising over 10% and XPeng Motors declining over 3% [1] - Recent inflation data from the U.S. showed a sharp increase, indicating that the possibility of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is not as high as previously thought [1][9] Group 2 - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw a sudden decline, with nearly 220,000 people liquidated globally in the past 24 hours, totaling approximately $1.047 billion [5][6] - Gold prices also experienced a slight drop, with spot gold down 0.3% and spot silver nearly 1% [7] - The recent increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. indicates a resurgence in inflation, with July PPI rising 3.3% year-over-year, significantly above expectations [9] - Federal Reserve officials expressed that a large rate cut next month may not be appropriate, contrasting with market expectations for aggressive cuts [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the preference for duration in the market has increased, particularly for fixed-rate preferred stocks, due to a shift in the U.S. Treasury market dynamics [2][4]. - The report highlights that the demand for $25 fixed-rate preferred stocks has reached a nine-month high, surpassing the demand for $1,000 floating-rate preferred stocks, with the former rising by 2.9% in the second half of the year compared to a 0.9% increase for the latter [4][8]. - The report indicates that despite the rising demand and yields, $25 preferred stocks remain cheaper than $1,000 preferred stocks, with a spread of approximately 63 basis points, which is in the 84th percentile since 2012 [8]. Group 2 - For cautious investors, the report suggests focusing on older $1,000 preferred stocks, which have lower yields but shorter durations and lower interest rate sensitivity, providing a yield premium of over 100 basis points compared to investment-grade bonds [14]. - The report notes that the average back-end spread for newly issued preferred stocks in 2025 is only 275 basis points, the narrowest on record, indicating a potential increase in extension risk [14][17].

Core Points - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. slightly decreased, indicating that despite reduced hiring by companies, there are no large-scale layoffs occurring [1][5] - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits also fell, suggesting that while job seekers are struggling to find work, the overall unemployment situation is stable [3][5] Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - As of the week ending August 9, initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, which is in line with levels seen in November 2021 and below the expected 225,000 [1] - For the week ending August 2, continuing claims dropped to 1.953 million, lower than the expected 1.967 million and the previous 1.974 million [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a cooling labor market, with July non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations and previous months' data revised down by 258,000 [5] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which was below expectations, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - However, the core CPI for July reached its highest level since February, raising concerns for the Federal Reserve regarding inflation control [5] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the release of jobless claims and inflation data, traders reduced their bets on interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in U.S. stock index futures and a rise in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a significant market downturn and altering interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month rise since June 2022, while economists had anticipated a 0.2% increase [2]. - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, the highest 12-month increase since February, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [3]. - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.9%, surpassing the expected 0.3% increase [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the inflation data release, traders reduced their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability of a rate cut now at 90%, down from a previous full pricing [4]. - The market's initial expectation of a rate cut was influenced by earlier CPI data, which was in line with expectations, but the PPI data has shifted sentiment [3][4]. - Analysts noted that while PPI was higher than expected, the relatively stable CPI suggests that companies are currently absorbing most of the tariff costs rather than passing them on to consumers [4]. Group 3: Broader Market Impact - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a sharp decline in pre-market trading following the inflation report [5]. - The U.S. dollar index saw an increase, indicating a stronger dollar in response to the inflation data [7]. - Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum faced significant drops, reflecting broader market volatility [8].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "high and low" trend on August 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak of 3704.77 points before closing at 3666.44 points, losing the 3700-point mark [1][2] - Despite over 4600 stocks declining, the market saw a significant increase in trading volume, with a total turnover of 2.3 trillion yuan, marking a new high for daily trading volume this year [2][3] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors have become a major source of incremental funds in the current bull market, with new account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reaching 1.9636 million in July, a 71% increase year-on-year [2] - Small orders (less than 10,000 shares or 50,000 yuan) have shown a continuous net inflow, indicating a rise in short-term speculative trading sentiment [3] Fund Performance - The performance of equity funds has significantly improved, with 12 funds achieving over 100% net growth this year, led by the Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Select A fund with a return of 132.55% [5] - The issuance of new funds has rebounded, with over 670 billion yuan in new fund issuance this year, and active equity products seeing a 30% year-on-year increase in issuance [5] Market Dynamics - The current bull market is characterized as a non-typical bull market under weak economic recovery, with low-risk returns and rising risk appetite, despite no significant improvement in corporate earnings [1][6] - The market is experiencing a positive cycle of "momentum effect" and "profit effect," attracting more incremental funds and boosting investor confidence [3][6] Sector Focus - The multi-financial sector has shown strong performance, with non-bank financial stocks rising, while other sectors have generally declined [2] - Analysts suggest focusing on high-growth sectors such as AI applications and advanced semiconductor processes, as government policies are supportive of these areas [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in gold prices is supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, alongside expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Spot gold is trading around $3,360 per ounce, while December futures rose by 0.3% to $3,408.3 per ounce, with silver, platinum, and palladium also experiencing price increases [1] - The decline in the dollar makes gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers, stimulating physical gold demand, while lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] Group 2 - The current rise in gold prices reflects both risk aversion and changes in macroeconomic expectations, with soft inflation data suggesting the Fed may not need to maintain a tight stance [3] - Key factors that could influence gold prices include the Fed's guidance post-September rate cut and global economic uncertainties, which could affect safe-haven demand [3][4] - Short-term, gold bulls are in control, but there is an increasing risk of price volatility at high levels, especially if the dollar rebounds or bond yields rise [4]

Group 1 - The US dollar index continues to decline, closing down 0.2% at 97.856, reaching its lowest point since July 28, driven by inflation data and pressure for monetary easing [1] - The weakening dollar benefits other major currencies, with the euro rising 0.2% to 1.1698 and the pound increasing 0.5% to 1.3567, despite a weak UK labor market [3] - Emerging markets may experience reduced capital outflow pressure and lower external debt servicing costs due to the dollar's depreciation, creating opportunities for high-yield assets [3] Group 2 - The current forex market is characterized by many major economies also being in a monetary easing cycle, which may limit the dollar's trend towards significant depreciation [4] - The dollar's decline has already triggered short-term capital flow changes in certain assets and currencies, but a large-scale global capital reallocation requires the realization and continuation of rate cut expectations [4] - Investors should monitor the Federal Reserve's post-meeting statements and the synchronized policy actions of other major central banks when betting on the dollar's trend [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 778.70 CNY per gram on August 14, with a daily increase of 0.31% and a trading volume of 149,006 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 774.60 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 4.1 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. decreased by 10 basis points to 6.67%, marking the largest decline since February [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai gold price rose by 0.11% to 777.10 CNY per gram, while silver increased by 1.12% to 9,318 CNY per kilogram [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates sooner, with a significant possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.28% to 97.80, reflecting a slight easing of inflation pressures in the U.S. and rising expectations for interest rate cuts in overseas markets, leading to a minor rebound in precious metal prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are expected to strengthen due to rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening US dollar, with a confirmed rate cut in September [1][3] - Gold prices have shown resilience, supported by the 60-day moving average and market sentiment, suggesting a potential upward movement towards resistance levels around $3440 and possibly reaching historical highs of $3570 if broken [1][3] - The US dollar index is under pressure, having fallen below recent upward trend support, which is likely to continue benefiting gold prices in the short term [3] Group 2 - Market attention is focused on upcoming economic data, including initial jobless claims and PPI figures, which are expected to influence gold prices; however, the impact of rising inflation on rate cut expectations is anticipated to be limited [3] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with indications of a potential rebound or adjustment phase, supported by recent price movements above key moving averages [3]