Core Viewpoint - The perception that the Federal Reserve operates independently of political pressure is described as a "false proposition," suggesting that market expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a continued rise in the U.S. stock market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - As the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell approaches its end, investors are expected to focus on the policies of the next Fed chair [1] - Market volatility is anticipated to increase due to uncertainties related to tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain long positions in the S&P 500 index and the VIX index, betting on increased allocations to high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges, particularly due to Trump's ongoing pressure on Powell, leading to a reassessment of the central bank's policy outlook in the market. However, JPMorgan believes that there is no need for excessive concern [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is not a new phenomenon, and its independence is described as a "myth" by JPMorgan's Ilan Benhamou, who notes that such situations have been occurring behind closed doors for decades [3]. - Historical precedents, such as President Johnson's conflict with former Fed Chairman Bill Martin in 1965, illustrate the ongoing tension between political figures and the Fed [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - JPMorgan suggests continuing to invest in the S&P 500 and VIX indices, anticipating that investors will increasingly allocate funds to risk assets like cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence, while uncertainties regarding tariffs, inflation, and Fed policies will heighten market volatility [2]. - As Powell's term nears its end, investors are expected to focus on the policy inclinations of the next Fed chair, with a growing dovish sentiment likely to support further gains in the stock market under expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Legal Implications of Dismissal - If Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would be a historic first in the U.S., likely resulting in a landmark lawsuit that could ultimately require a Supreme Court ruling [5]. - The Federal Reserve Act allows for the removal of board members, including the chair, "for cause," and Trump has suggested potential reasons for dismissal related to the Fed's renovation costs [6]. Group 4: Supreme Court's Position - The Supreme Court previously indicated that Trump cannot dismiss Powell without cause, recognizing the Fed as a "structurally unique quasi-private entity," but left open the possibility for "for cause" dismissals [7]. - Legal experts suggest that even if the court finds the dismissal unlawful, it remains uncertain whether Powell could retain his position, given the court's limitations on providing "equitable relief" for high-ranking officials [7].

法国兴业银行全球经济与跨资产研究主管表示，"央行的最大资产是公信力，若因撤换掌门人而受损，市场反应将极其负面，""这将引发显著波动"，并称继 任者猜测会进一步加剧美债和美元震荡。 周三美债剧烈震荡，因有报道称特朗普拟解雇鲍威尔，短债一度因降息预期升温而上涨，随后特朗普表态暂无撤换计划。尽管特朗普今年多次批评鲍威尔， 但此次事态升级令投资者担忧央行可能面临政治干预。 智通财经APP注意到，美国国债价格下跌，因市场正消化总统特朗普最新抨击美联储主席鲍威尔引发的冲击波。周四美债收益率曲线全线上扬，10年期国债 收益率微升1个基点至4.47%，30年期国债收益率仍维持在5%上方。 特朗普虽称"极不可能"解雇鲍威尔，但仍持续施压，重申美联储维持利率过高，并拒绝"排除任何可能性"。 华尔街三大行高管均强调美联储自主权至关重要。但利率决策需联邦公开市场委员会多数支持，新任主席需说服同僚支持降息。最新点阵图显示官员对年内 降息路径仍存分歧，主因对特朗普关税影响通胀的看法不一。 本哈穆表示，"我不认为鲍威尔真的会被解雇，但这在目前来说真的无关紧要，因为市场很快就会意识到他被人为地排除在外，并开始预测下一任主席会怎 么做，""无 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed "crucial" by Kevin Warsh, a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Warsh emphasizes the importance of independent operation in monetary policy execution, indicating that historical evidence supports this view [1] - Despite advocating for the independence of the Federal Reserve, Warsh notes that this does not imply complete independence in all matters [1] - Warsh, who served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, consistently supported hawkish interest rate policies aimed at addressing inflation risks; however, he now advocates for interest rate cuts, aligning with President Trump's stance [1] - President Trump is considering nominations for Warsh's potential successor after Chairman Powell's term ends in May of next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, argues that the central bank's reluctance to lower interest rates is damaging its credibility, and he supports President Trump's push for policy easing [1] Group 1 - Warsh believes the Federal Reserve is facing a "credibility crisis" [1] - He emphasizes that continuity is the least needed aspect for the U.S. central bank [1] - Warsh criticizes the focus on DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and "fully inclusive employment" as significant errors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is at a "transformational moment" in economic history [1] - There is a strong belief that the Federal Reserve should not continue with business as usual [1] - The Federal Reserve is facing a "credibility crisis" [1] Group 2 - There is a firm conviction in the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rumors of Trump potentially firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have sparked significant market reactions and discussions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for the stability of the U.S. financial system and global capital markets, as political interference could lead to rapid market reactions and volatility in assets like the dollar and U.S. Treasuries [1][2]. - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and the market is built on a foundation of independence and transparency, with the Fed focusing on stabilizing inflation and achieving full employment [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions to Potential Dismissal - The potential dismissal of Powell is seen as a move to pressure the Federal Reserve into accelerating interest rate cuts, which could lower U.S. Treasury yields and stimulate the economy [3][4]. - If Powell were to be dismissed, it could lead to a significant loss of confidence in the reliability of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, potentially resulting in a large-scale sell-off of these assets [4][6]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - While the short-term effects of such a dismissal might lower short-term interest rates, the long-term consequences could undermine the foundational credibility of the dollar and lead to a shift towards alternative safe-haven assets like gold [4][7]. - The overall sentiment suggests that any political intervention in the Federal Reserve's operations could severely damage market trust and the integrity of the dollar credit system [6][7].

杜明表示，"因故"条款从未被挑战过，是一个法律黑洞。 美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的持续施压再次引发市场动荡，并引发人们对未来会发生什么的各 种猜测。 可以肯定的是，若成真，此举在美国历史上尚属首次，可能会引发具有里程碑意义的诉讼，该诉讼将牵 动白宫和华尔街。 此言暗指美联储总部翻新工程的成本超支问题。特朗普及其盟友一直将此作为解雇鲍威尔的依据之一。 当地时间16日，有报道称特朗普预计将很快对鲍威尔采取行动，后者因未听从其降低利率的呼吁而成为 特朗普的攻击目标。 不过，特朗普对这些报道予以反驳，称鲍威尔的解职"极不可能，除非他因'欺诈'而不得不离开"。 根据《联邦储备法》第10条，美联储理事会成员可以"因故"被解职。 而成本超支是否构成此类不当行为，将是法院需要裁决的新问题。 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明教授对第一财经记者表示，所 谓"因故"这类条款的设立，主要目的是保护美联储职位的独立性，不能行政部门看美联储官员不满意就 能任意解雇，而"因故"可以届时由法院再从严解释，例如滥用职权或贪赃枉法等。 届时，本着"谁主张，谁举证原则"，需要"特朗普方面举证。"杜明补充道。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market's reaction to rumors about President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and its implications for financial markets [1][2][10]. Market Reaction - Following the rumors, U.S. stocks and the dollar fell sharply, while short-term Treasury bonds rose as investors speculated that a new chair would align with presidential preferences for interest rate cuts [4][7]. - The two-year Treasury yield dropped by as much as 8 basis points, and the ten-year yield fell by 5 basis points. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index shifted from a 0.2% increase to a 0.7% decline, while the S&P 500 index reversed from a 0.3% gain to a 0.7% loss [7]. Implications of the Incident - The incident raised questions about whether the market's reaction served as a warning to the Trump administration against taking impulsive actions or if it encouraged further bold moves, suggesting that the acceptable window for such actions has widened [6][9]. - Analysts noted that the mere discussion of dismissing Powell could have damaging effects on the perception of the Federal Reserve's independence, which is a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system [10][11]. Investor Sentiment - Market participants expressed deep concerns, viewing the situation as a credible threat to the Federal Reserve's autonomy. This sentiment was echoed by various financial experts who emphasized the potential negative consequences of political interference in central banking [11][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence is expected to lead to lower market confidence, increased pricing for rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and higher term premiums in the coming months [13]. Conclusion - The article illustrates the fragility of market confidence in the face of political maneuvering, with seasoned traders indicating that navigating such headlines can be challenging, leading some to adopt a wait-and-see approach [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock, currency, and bond markets experienced significant declines due to President Trump's consideration of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, although Trump later stated he does not intend to do so [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's initial comments about potentially dismissing Powell, major U.S. stock indices fell, the dollar index dropped, and U.S. Treasury yields rose [5]. - After Trump denied the reports and stated that he does not plan to take action against Powell, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the major stock indices closed higher, although the dollar index slightly decreased [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Several leaders in the U.S. banking sector publicly emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve for the stability of the U.S. economy and financial system [6]. - Trump's discussions about Powell's potential dismissal included references to past issues, such as the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which has been criticized for alleged excessive spending [8][9]. Group 3: Powell's Position and Future - Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017 and reappointed under President Biden, is expected to complete his term, which ends on May 15 of the following year [15]. - Trump has criticized the current interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, suggesting it should be lowered, while Powell has indicated that the Fed will take a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [15][16].