2025.11.21 本文字数：1499，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 市场风险偏好同步退潮。CBOE波动率指数收于26.42，为4月以来最高。美元指数上涨，黄金小幅回 落，布油与美油双双走低，比特币跌幅超过3.5%。美国10年期国债收益率下滑至约4.09%。 资产管理公司Nationwide Investment Management Group 首席市场策略师马克·哈克特（Mark Hackett）表示，这轮回调"更像是一次协调性的风险厌恶交易——从科技股到加密货币都在被抛售，投 资者对过高估值和杠杆暴露产生担忧"。他补充称："这是盘中开始的下跌，而不是开盘就承压，这说明 市场已经出现一定疲态。" 经济数据方面，在因政府停摆推迟近七周后，美国劳工统计局（BLS）终于公布了久违的9月就业数 据。数据显示，9月非农新增岗位为11.9万，远高于此前预期的5万，失业率升至4.4%，创2021年以来新 高。此前两个月的就业数据被合计下调3.3万，其中8月由原先的增加2.2万修正为减少4000人。 由于政府停摆导致统计工作中断，部分10月就业数据将与11月报告合并，而11月就业将在美联储12月议 息会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion among investors, influenced by stock market declines and geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [5][9][16] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have risen from $3998 to $4095 over two days, marking a total increase of 1.23% [3] - Major gold retailers in China have reported significant price increases, with prices reaching record highs [3] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a four-day decline, and the Dow Jones dropped nearly 500 points in one day, prompting investors to seek safer assets like gold [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly decreased from 94% to 50% in just a month, indicating uncertainty in monetary policy [5][9] - Conflicting statements from Federal Reserve officials have created confusion regarding the economic outlook and interest rate decisions [7][9] - Unemployment claims have risen to 1.957 million, suggesting a weakening labor market, despite the Fed's assertion that the economy is stable [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll report are critical for determining the future direction of gold prices [9][16] - If the Fed signals a potential early rate cut, gold prices could exceed $4100, while cautious language could lead to a pullback to around $4036-$4037 [9] - The non-farm payroll report, delayed by government shutdown, is seen as a crucial indicator for market sentiment and gold price movements [9] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, considering current gold prices are at a high level, and to establish a phased buying strategy to average costs [10][12] - For those in need of gold for consumption, early purchases are recommended to avoid future price increases [12] - It is essential to avoid "one-price" gold purchases due to hidden costs and to opt for gold sold by weight [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Nvidia's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, boosting the sentiment of the technology sector and causing today's stock indices to open higher. However, due to strong profit - taking intentions and unresolved Sino - Japanese tensions, the indices weakened after the opening. The market's risk - aversion sentiment was strong, and there was a style shift between large - and small - cap stocks. Defensive large - cap indices were relatively more resilient [5]. - The September non - farm payroll report released tonight is crucial for the Fed's December interest - rate decision. If the employment data improves, the expectation of interest - rate cuts will cool down, and the stock indices are expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indices remaining dominant. If the data shows an increased risk of employment decline, the expectation of interest - rate cuts will rise, strengthening the support for A - shares, and the stock indices may stop falling and rebound in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices opened higher and closed lower. Large - cap indices were relatively more resilient, with the CSI 300 index closing down 0.51%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 17.20 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM declined with reduced volume, while other varieties declined with increased volume [3]. Important News - Nvidia's Q3 total revenue accelerated by 62% year - on - year, and its Q4 revenue guidance mid - point is expected to increase by 65% year - on - year. Data center revenue reached a record high, and the stock price rose by up to 6% after the market [4]. - The Fed meeting minutes revealed significant differences. Many people think it is not suitable to cut interest rates in December, and some are worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market [4]. Strategy Recommendation - Go long on IH and short on IM [6]. Futures Market Observation - The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had intraday declines of - 0.69%, - 0.49%, - 0.84%, and - 0.48% respectively. The trading volume of IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. The open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased [6]. Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 0.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.708189 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.20 billion yuan from the previous day [7].

Price Adjustments - Several domestic gold jewelry brands have raised their prices for pure gold jewelry, with notable quotes being: Chow Sang Sang at 1307 CNY/gram, Chow Tai Fook at 1305 CNY/gram, and Lao Feng Xiang at 1302 CNY/gram [1][2] International Gold Prices - On November 19, international gold prices saw a significant reversal, with New York's December gold futures reaching 4114.8 USD/ounce, an increase of 1.19%, and London spot gold at 4113.8 USD/ounce, up by 1.15% [2][5] Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The market sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has shifted, with the likelihood of a December rate cut now below 50%, influenced by a lack of economic data due to a government shutdown and concerns over high valuations in tech stocks [5][6] Technical Analysis - Analysts suggest that the next target for December gold futures is to break through the historical high of 4398 USD/ounce, while the short-term bearish target is to fall below the strong support level of 4000 USD/ounce [6] Risk Management - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice emphasizing the need for market participants to maintain risk control measures due to recent market instability, advising investors to manage their positions carefully [7]

国际金价方面，昨日出现大反转。北京时间19日18时35分，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价报每盎司4114.8美元，涨幅为1.19%；伦敦现货黄金报每盎司 4113.8美元，涨幅为1.15%。截至北京时间20日15时50分，金价有所回调。 前几日，国际金价连续几日下跌。18日，伦敦现货黄金盘中一度跌破4000美元，部分国内品牌金饰价格近日也出现四连跌。 每经编辑｜陈柯名 11月20日，国内黄金饰品价格对比显示，多家黄金珠宝品牌公布的境内足金首饰价格较昨日有所上调，周生生报价1307元/克，周大福报价1305元/克，老 凤祥报价1302元/克，老庙黄金上海区域克价为1302元，六福珠宝报价1303元/克。 图片来源：视觉中国 经济日报近日发文指出，近一段时间，在美国步入降息周期、地缘政治风险延续、全球央行持续购金支撑等因素推动下，不确定性的增强促使金价表现强 势。然而，经历短期多日连涨，黄金技术面已出现超买信号，再加上对国际局势动荡预期缓和与投机资金获利了结等因素的影响，金价在高位持续震荡。 招联首席研究员董希淼表示，黄金作为避险资产的属性仍然较强，短期回调没有根本改变金价中长期上涨逻辑，投资者也正逐渐适应近期的波 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index has risen above the 100 mark again, negatively impacting gold and silver prices due to three main reasons [1] - The first reason is the significant cooling of the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for December, with many officials suggesting maintaining rates through 2025, leading to a stronger dollar [1] - The second reason is the delayed release of non-farm payroll data, which hinders policy judgment and creates uncertainty, further strengthening the dollar [1] Group 2 - The weakness of non-US currencies has also contributed to the strength of the dollar, with the euro and British pound showing declines due to economic concerns in their respective regions [2] - The ongoing economic recovery in the Eurozone remains insufficient, and market confidence is low, which has led to a weaker euro against the dollar [2] - The British pound has also faced downward pressure due to fiscal concerns, highlighting the dollar's strength in comparison [2] Group 3 - The gold market has shown a slight increase, with prices rising by 0.22% to 932.56 yuan per gram [4] - Despite the short-term uncertainties in the market, there is potential for a long-term bullish trend in precious metals, reminiscent of the 1970s, driven by increased central bank purchases [6] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, with a potential buying opportunity if gold prices drop below $3,900 (900 yuan) [6]

今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年11月20日的黄金深入分析 ·黄金在周四早盘重新尝试突破4100美元，期待美国就业数据的推动。 ·美元接近十天高位，风险偏好情绪抵消鹰派美联储会议纪要的影响。 ·黄金周三收盘于4075美元阻力位之上；相对强弱指数保持看涨。接下来会如何？ 黄金在周四早盘再次尝试突破4100美元，因美元（USD）在风险偏好的市场环境中暂停上涨，同时等待当天稍晚公布的至关重要的九月份非农就业数据 （NFP）报告。 然而，在芯片制造商英伟达（Nvidia）在市场收盘后发布的乐观业绩提供了极大缓解，并引发了全面的风险偏好反弹后，局势似乎再次转向黄金买家有 利。 市场的乐观情绪延续到亚洲交易时段，限制了美元的持续上涨，同时恢复了黄金向4100美元门槛的回升动能。 黄金的下一步上涨取决于美国就业数据的发布，这可能会改变市场对美联储下个月是否降息的预期。 预计非农就业数据将显示，美国经济在九月份新增5万个就业岗位，而八月份的新增就业岗位为2.2万个。失业率预计在同一时期保持在4.3%。与此同时， 预计九月份的平均时薪年增幅为3.7%，与八月份的增幅相同。 任何与预期的显著偏差都可能影响美 ...

地量信号持续强化，上证成交额预估7200亿连续两日低位，个股位置优势凸显，微盘股及中证2000跌至 关键支撑位，外围反差孕育补涨潜力；技术面呈现双针探底形态、资金面上，北向尾盘抢筹、融资余额 回升，事件驱动方面，周末政策以及美联储降息预期作用，在这三重催化下，明日大阳线反包概率较 大，若早盘快速下探可视为加仓机会，当前A股估值、情绪、资金面均处历史极端低位，修复行情箭在 弦上，即使短期反复也无非是"最后一跌"，建议坚定信心、守住筹码，逆势布局者终将迎来胜利。 11月20日，和讯投顾孙鹏表示，尽管今日上证指数小幅回调15点、市场连续5日弱势且个股亏钱效应显 著，尤其双创指数反复震荡、亚太股市普涨下，A股独立调整引发质疑，但当前市场已处于阶段性底部 区域，明日或迎否极泰来的变盘节点。 ...

Group 1 - The market opened high but experienced a decline, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 0.84% and the ChiNext Index down 0.60% as of 14:00 [1] - Volatility in the growth sector has increased since Q4, with high momentum reversal effects and core asset accumulation leading to significant fluctuations [1] - Despite the market volatility, the fundamentals of the dual innovation sector remain unchanged, particularly in AI-related areas where China's semiconductor upstream equipment, materials, and chip manufacturing still show attractive PEG levels compared to U.S. peers [1] Group 2 - From a mid-term perspective, growth stocks are stabilizing after previous emotional releases, while the ChiNext still holds high allocation value due to reasonable valuations and improving fundamentals [2] - As of November 19, the scale of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588080) is 69.34 billion yuan, and the ChiNext ETF (159915) is 100.69 billion yuan, both ranking among the top in their category [2] - The combined management and custody fee rate for these ETFs is only 20 basis points, making them excellent tools for investors to capture the investment value of the dual innovation sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a rebound, testing the 157.50 level, despite verbal interventions from Japanese authorities, indicating ongoing pressure on the yen and a strong dollar driven by reduced risk aversion in the market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The latest USD/JPY exchange rate is reported at 157.3900, with a gain of 0.15% [1] - Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno expressed concerns over the recent "one-sided and rapid" fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate, emphasizing the need for vigilance against excessive volatility [1] - The yen has recently fallen below the 157 mark, reaching its lowest level since January of this year, attributed to weakened expectations for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily RSI for USD/JPY is in a slightly overbought zone, which may limit the bullish sentiment and lead to a consolidation or moderate pullback [2] - If the exchange rate adjusts, the 156.60 area may serve as the first support level; a drop below 156.00 could trigger further technical selling pressure [2] - Should the market continue to rise, the 157.50 area is identified as a key resistance level, with potential upward movement towards 158.00 and higher resistance at approximately 158.50, aiming for the January high of 159.00 [2]