转自：新华财经 新华财经上海3月31日电（葛佳明） 3月31日，市场避险情绪升温，COMEX黄金期货价格强势上涨，再度刷新金价历史高位，截至发稿，COMEX黄金上涨 0.46%至3128.00美元／盎司，盘中最高触及3130.2美元／盎司，2025年以来涨幅18.5%，料创历史最大季度涨幅。 伦敦现货黄金突破3100美元／盎司，最高触及3101.51美元／盎司，年内累计涨幅已超18%，截至发稿，现货黄金上涨0.54%，报3101美元／盎司。 上期所沪金期货主力合约站上早盘走强，一度触及725.52元／克，再创历史新高，截至发稿涨幅为1.12%，今年累计上涨达16.7%。上海黄金交易所现货黄金 （Au99.99）最高触及达到726.9元／克，年内涨幅达到18%。 A股贵金属板块持续冲高，西部黄金涨超7%，晓程科技、赤峰黄金涨近5%，四川黄金、中金黄金、山东黄金跟涨。 金价屡创新高的同时，市场资金对黄金ETF的配置需求也在快速攀升。截至发稿，跟踪上金所黄金现货合约的华安黄金ETF（518880）涨0.42%，截至3月28 日流通规模达396.57亿元，近6日连续获资金布局超25亿元，今年迄今涨幅达到17%；国泰黄 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards traditional strong assets like US stocks and bonds, while highlighting opportunities in safe-haven assets such as gold and Chinese government bonds [2][8][20]. Core Insights - The global economy and financial markets are experiencing significant volatility in 2025, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a favorable outlook for safe-haven assets [2][8]. - The US stock market, which had previously outperformed, is now facing high valuations and increased policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess risk preferences [3][6][9]. - The report indicates a rising probability of a US economic recession, exceeding 50%, due to factors such as stagflation risks and high inflation [10][11][16]. - China's economic competitiveness in technology and manufacturing is improving, but the real estate market remains weak, impacting overall economic growth [30][31][35]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes that global trade tensions are suppressing economic growth, with expectations of a downward trend in global interest rates as central banks respond to these challenges [2][23]. - The US economy is under pressure from high inflation, high interest rates, and rising wages, which could lead to reduced corporate profitability and economic cooling [16][17]. US Market Analysis - The US stock market's high valuations and policy uncertainties are leading to adjustments, with investors shifting focus to European and Asian markets [3][9]. - The report highlights the need for investors to diversify their strategies, moving away from a simplistic buy-and-hold approach in US equities [9][19]. Chinese Economic Dynamics - The report notes that while China's technology and manufacturing sectors are gaining strength, the overall economic contribution from new industries remains low, with traditional sectors still dominating [30][34]. - The real estate market's ongoing weakness, particularly in new construction, is expected to have a prolonged negative impact on China's economic growth [31][33]. Investment Strategies - The report advocates for a diversified investment strategy that includes safe-haven assets and defensive sectors, as traditional strong assets face headwinds [8][9][20]. - It suggests that the issuance of special government bonds in China is aimed at stimulating consumption, particularly in durable goods, but warns of potential dependency on such policies [37][39]. Interest Rate and Debt Market - The report indicates that US debt yields are expected to decline as the Federal Reserve may need to lower rates in response to economic cooling [19][20]. - It also highlights the importance of managing the balance between fiscal expansion and maintaining economic stability, particularly in light of rising government debt levels [13][14][18].

近期，全球股市普遍遭遇重挫，市场情绪因美国总统特朗普的威胁言论而陷入恐慌。3月31日，亚太市 场开盘后，日经225指数一度大跌4%，韩国KOSPI指数跌幅扩大至2.4%，创下2月10日以来的最低水 平。与此同时，纳指期货跌超3%，显示出全球投资者对市场前景的担忧。 特朗普威胁言论加剧市场不确定性 特朗普在3月30日接受美国全国广播公司电话采访时，就伊朗核问题和俄罗斯石油出口发表了强硬言 论。他威胁称，如果伊朗不与美国就其核问题达成协议，美国将对伊朗进行轰炸，并对其相关产品征 收"二级关税"。此外，特朗普还表示，如果俄罗斯未能促成俄乌停火协议，美国将对俄罗斯石油买家征 收25%至50%的关税。这些言论引发了市场对地缘政治紧张局势升级的担忧，进一步加剧了全球股市的 波动。 美股表现疲软，科技股领跌 作者：观察君 上周，美国三大股指全线下跌，纳斯达克指数累计跌2.59%，道琼斯指数累计跌0.96%，标普500指数全 周累计下跌1.53%。科技股成为重灾区，英伟达累计跌6.82%，Meta下跌3.27%，微软下跌3.18%，亚马 逊下跌1.78%，苹果下跌0.17%，谷歌A则下跌5.89%。市场对特朗普关税政策的担忧 ...

银行提高积存金产品投资门槛 封面新闻记者 朱宁 2025年3月28日，国际现货黄金价格再创历史新高，不仅吸引了投资者的广泛关注，也在全球金融市场引发了热议。3月28日，美国COMEX黄金期货盘中 突破3100美元大关，一度升至3124.4美元/盎司，创下历史新高。当天，现货黄金也站上3080美元/盎司。 黄金价格上涨 3月28日，国际金价上涨，现货黄金涨0.94%，报3084.33美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货6月合约涨0.59%，报3116.6美元，本周累计上涨2.26%；均继续创历 史新高，此外沪金期货主力合约突破720元/克，再创历史新高，国内黄金饰品价格继续上涨，国内多家品牌金店的黄金零售价格站上930元/克。 美国银行的分析师也表示，未来18个月的黄金目标价从之前的每盎司3000美元上调至每盎司3500美元。美银强调，美国贸易政策引发的不确定性在短期内 将继续支撑金价。 值得注意的是，在国际金价冲高背景下，近日，中国银行、江苏银行、宁波银行等多家银行也调高了积存金业务投资门槛。对此，有分析师表示，受地缘 政治风险、央行购金等因素影响，今年以来，黄金价格继续明显上涨，投资者的热情进一步被激发。虽然从长 ...

投资者正在为"4月2日"做最后准备，股票市场遭受冲击，债券市场成避风港。 今年前三个月，在特朗普一连串的关税措施影响下，全球股票和债券市场都经历了剧烈波动。但有一点 变得越来越清晰：美元作为避险资产摇摆不定，债券比股票更有吸引力。 股市整体不振，汽车、电子、制药等关键行业面临冲击 2月底以来，美国股市市值已蒸发超过5万亿美元。 美国市场方面，汽车行业（包括汽车制造商、零部件供应商和经销商）仍然处于关税相关动荡的中心， 特别是在上周特朗普宣布将对进口汽车加征25%关税后。 分析认为，"对等关税"政策可能会加剧美国汽车行业的痛苦，还可能针对半导体芯片、药品和木材等行 业。除了通用这样的汽车巨头，像英伟达、AMD和英特尔这样的芯片制造商也将成为关注焦点；制药 巨头如辉瑞、强生、默克和百时美施贵宝也将暴露在风险中。 欧洲市场方面，欧股汽车股已经受到影响，欧洲斯托克汽车及零部件指数较今年高点下跌约12%。 特朗普政府预计将于周三宣布一系列所谓的"对等关税"措施，这很可能成为市场的下一个重大打击。根 据彭博经济学家的分析，取决于关税措施的规模，美国GDP可能受到打击，未来几年物价可能大幅波 动，特别是考虑到可能对来自某些 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of gold surged to a record high, with spot gold closing at $3056.54 per ounce and COMEX gold futures reaching $3099 per ounce, marking significant daily increases of 1.23% and 1.53% respectively [2] - During trading, spot gold hit an intraday high of $3059.63, while COMEX futures peaked at $3102.2, reflecting a daily increase of over $50 [2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened global trade tensions following new tariffs announced by U.S. President Trump, alongside ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East and Ukraine, which have driven investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [4] Group 2: Food Safety Standards - The National Health Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation released 50 new food safety national standards, prohibiting the use of terms like "no additives" and "zero additives" on food labels to prevent misleading consumers [9] - The ban on these terms aims to enhance consumer understanding of food labels, allowing for more informed choices and reducing potential health risks associated with misleading marketing [9] Group 3: New Features in WeChat - WeChat has introduced a new feature called "Nearby Jobs," allowing users to search for part-time and gig work based on location, salary, and other criteria, covering over 200 cities in China [12]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has underperformed this year, while gold prices have surged above $3,000 per ounce, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics in the coming months [1] - The S&P 500 index has lagged behind gold futures by 24% over the past three months, marking the largest gap since March 2022, characterized by market pressure and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3] Group 1 - The return rate gap between the S&P 500 and gold futures has reached its most significant level in over two years, with only 5% of historical instances since 1970 showing a gap below -24% [3] - This divergence suggests that traders' pessimism is intensifying, often indicating a market bottom followed by a rebound in the coming months [3] - Historically, when the return rate gap falls below -24%, the S&P 500 index tends to experience a volatile bottoming process, with a 65% probability of rising in the subsequent two months [3] Group 2 - Following the -24% return rate gap, gold may face pressure in the initial months, indicating traders' reluctance to hold safe-haven assets like gold [4] - If the stock market rebounds, gold could experience short-term pressure while remaining within its long-term upward trend [4]

金价看涨！2025年3月24日各大金店黄金价格多少钱一克？ | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览（2025年3月24日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 695.00 | 元/克 | | 菜自黄金 | 681. 40 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 679.00 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 683. 60 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 689.00 | 元/克 | 说完实物黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 上周五金价受美元走强以及部分投资者提前获利了结影响，最低跌破3000美元。后受避险情绪支撑有所回升，最终收报 3023.61美元/盎司，跌幅0.69%。今日金价震荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3024.73美元/盎司，涨幅0.04%。 目前在中东局势上，以色列上周还对黎巴嫩发动了空袭，据称目标是黎境内的恐怖分子。美官员则在昨日表示已成功打击 胡塞武装关键领导层，寻求完全拆除伊朗核计划。伊朗外长也在昨日表示，当前情况下伊朗已不可能再与美国进行谈判。 此外，上周五有多位美联储官员放鹰称降息仍需谨慎，但市场对美联储未来降息预期还 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔上周表示，特朗普的政策，包括进口关税，可能减缓了美国经济增长，加剧了通 货膨胀。 Allegiance Gold首席运营官Alex Ebkarian表示："黄金甚至还没有成为散户投资者的避险资产，因为 从技术上讲，我们还没有陷入衰退。我们看到经济正在放缓，这很可能造成进一步的不确定性，以及对 避险资产的更大需求，" 【国际黄金技术面分析】 黄金上周五下跌在2999.00之上受到支持，上涨在3048.00之下遇阻，意味着黄金短线上涨后有可能 保持下跌的走势。如果黄金今天上涨在3044.00之下遇阻，后市下跌的目标将会指向2995.00--2973.00之 间。今天黄金短线阻力在3043.00--3044.00，短线重要阻力在3069.00--3070.00。今天黄金短线支持在 2995.00--2996.00，短线重要支持在2973.00--2974.00。 【要闻聚焦】 美联储在1月和3月的会议上一直维持利率不变，因美联储在等待反通胀方面的进一步进展。美联储 认为经济前景存在高度不确定性。根据上周更新的数据，决策者预计到2025年平均将降息两次。 国际黄金上行空间受限 周一（3月24日）欧洲早 ...

金价28年狂涨近7倍：投资新视角与策略调整 引言 近日，郑州市民杨先生在整理母亲遗物时，意外发现了一批1997年前后购买的金饰，当时的金价在118- 135元/克之间，而今金价已上涨近7倍。这一事件不仅引发了公众对于黄金投资价值的重新评估，也促 使我们思考在当前经济环境下，普通人应如何调整投资策略，以适应市场变化。 一、金价上涨的背后逻辑 1. 经济不确定性下的避险需求 黄金历来被视为避险资产，在经济不确定性增加时，投资者倾向于增持黄金以对冲风险。过去28年间， 全球经济经历了多次危机，如亚洲金融危机、互联网泡沫破裂、全球金融危机等，每次危机都推动了金 价的上涨。 2. 货币政策的影响 央行的货币政策，特别是利率水平和量化宽松政策，对金价有着直接的影响。低利率环境降低了持有黄 金的机会成本，而量化宽松则增加了货币供应量，可能引发通胀担忧，进而推高金价。 3. 地缘政治风险 地缘政治的不稳定也是推动金价上涨的重要因素。地区冲突、恐怖主义活动以及国际贸易摩擦等，都会 增强市场的避险情绪，从而支撑金价。 二、黄金投资的新视角 1. 多元化投资组合中的角色 在构建投资组合时，黄金可以作为分散风险的工具。与其他资产类别 ...