Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the significance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and its implications for China's modernization and economic development [1] Group 1: Major Significance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session - The session is crucial for understanding the strategic tasks and major initiatives for economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - It highlights the importance of adhering to and strengthening the Party's comprehensive leadership [1] Group 2: Implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The formulation and execution of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are vital for promoting sustainable and healthy economic and social development in China [1] - The plan aims to advance Chinese-style modernization in a phased and systematic manner [1] Group 3: Integration with Xi Jinping's Thought - There is a call to integrate the learning and implementation of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session with Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era [1] - The focus is on uniting closely around the Party Central Committee led by Xi Jinping to achieve the goal of basic socialist modernization [1]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and building a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, providing strong momentum for China's high-tech industry [3]. ETF Investment Opportunities - The technology sector, as a policy focus, has historically outperformed most other sectors in the 1-3 years following policy announcements [3]. - Various ETFs related to key sectors under the "14th Five-Year Plan" are highlighted, including: - **Semiconductors**: Semiconductor ETF (512480), Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200), Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516), Consumer Electronics ETF (562950) [4]. - **High-end Manufacturing**: Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667), Sci-Tech Machinery ETF (588850), High-end Equipment ETF (516320) [5]. - **Basic Software**: Software ETF (159852) [5]. - **Biomanufacturing**: Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120), Innovative Drug ETF (159992) [5]. - **Artificial Intelligence**: AI ETFs including Startup Board AI ETF (159363), Sci-Tech AI ETF (588790), Cloud Computing ETF (516510), and others [7]. - **New Energy**: Photovoltaic ETF (515790), New Energy ETF (516160), Solid-State Battery ETF (159566), and Energy Storage Battery ETF [8]. - **Aerospace and Communication**: Aerospace ETF (159227), Communication ETF (515880) [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a new policy financial tool amounting to 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting major economic provinces in China, highlighting the importance of these provinces in driving economic growth and investment recovery. Group 1: Policy Financial Tool Implementation - A new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan was fully deployed by the end of October, with significant funding directed towards 12 major economic provinces, accounting for approximately 78%, 72%, and nearly 80% of the total funding from different policy banks [1][5][6] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a local debt limit of 200 billion yuan specifically for projects in these major economic provinces [1][5] Group 2: Identification of Major Economic Provinces - Major economic provinces are defined as those ranking in the top 12 by GDP for 2024, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Henan, Hubei, Fujian, Shanghai, Hunan, Anhui, and Beijing, which together represent 69% of the national economic total [2][7] - Adjustments to the special bond management mechanism will allow 10 provinces to conduct "self-initiated self-examination" trials, which aligns closely with the list of major economic provinces [2][8] Group 3: Rationale for Targeting Major Economic Provinces - The focus on major economic provinces is attributed to their relative flexibility in increasing infrastructure investment amid debt constraints faced by other provinces [3][8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of major economic provinces as growth poles, encouraging them to lead in the modernization process [3][8] Group 4: Economic Performance and Investment Trends - In the first three quarters of the year, GDP growth reached 5.2%, with notable strengths in exports and industrial production, while fixed asset investment showed a decline of 0.5% year-on-year [4][9] - Major economic provinces exhibited significant investment shortfalls, with Guangdong's fixed asset investment down 14.1%, the lowest in the country, and other provinces like Jiangsu and Hunan also showing declines [4][9][10] Group 5: Future Investment Recovery Potential - If fixed asset investment growth in provinces like Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Shandong, and Hunan can return to the average level of 2024 (approximately 1.4%), it could contribute an estimated 0.5 percentage points to overall fixed asset investment growth [4][13] - A recovery to the 2023 average level (approximately 3.3%) could boost fixed asset investment by about 1.2 percentage points, while aligning with GDP growth (around 5%) could lead to a 1.8 percentage point increase [4][13]

中共中央党史和文献研究院与新华通讯社 面向全球共同发布中英文智库报告 基本实现中国式现代化的关键阶段 "十五五" H2 前: 中国经济社会发展的战略擘画 (2025年11月7日) 新华社权威快报 报告强调，当前，百年未有之大变局加速演进，面对纷繁复杂的国际国内形势，中国将继续以五年规划特有的系统性思维破解全球难题，兼顾 中国之需与世界之盼。"十五五"规划的制定和实施，将使中国继续成为世界和平与发展的助推器、稳定锚，为世界提供稳固、持续的确定性。 报告全文约2.6万字，通过相关网站、期刊、社交媒体等平台以中英文面向全球发布。 记者：魏玉坤 海报制作：吴彬尔 新华社国内部出品 11月7日，中共中央党史和文献研究院国家高端智库与新华社国家高端智库联合举办"红厅论坛：读懂中国共产党二十届四中全会"国际研讨 会，共同发布《基本实现中国式现代化的关键阶段——"十五五"时期中国经济社会发展的战略擘画》智库报告。 报告认为，"十五五"时期是中国2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的关键一程。在"十四五"开局起步、积蓄动能的基础上，"十五五"将以科技创 新为新引擎，以新质生产力为突破口，推动中国高质量发展迈上新的台阶，确保基本实现 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to enter a phase of "self-centered" development following the recent US-China meeting, with a focus on domestic economic indicators and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes upgrading traditional industries, technological self-reliance, and boosting domestic demand, which are key areas for investment [1] - The A-share market is likely to experience a period of consolidation after reaching a high point, with potential investment opportunities in the energy storage industry, cyclical industries, and traditional manufacturing upgrades [1] Group 2 - The market is anticipated to have a volatile performance in November, with limited upward and downward movement, focusing on sectors with reversal expectations such as AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - Despite recent underperformance, the medical technology sector, including AI healthcare, is seen as a potential area for capital rotation, especially if industry trends continue to evolve positively [3] - There is a cautious optimism regarding the financial sector, with banks and insurance companies expected to see performance improvements in the coming year [5] Group 3 - Consumer demand is projected to have opportunities in the coming year due to low stock prices and a low base in consumption this year, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [6] - The long-term outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector remains positive, with expectations of upward price movements due to supply constraints [6] - The overseas expansion of Chinese companies in capital goods and consumer goods is viewed as a significant opportunity for growth [7] Group 4 - The market is expected to maintain a cautious optimism in the short term, with limited new capital inflow but a significant amount of capital waiting for a market correction to enter [8] - There is a focus on sectors with independent industrial logic and low correlation to overall economic trends, indicating a potential for structural market performance [9] - The ongoing US-China trade tensions are likely to lead to a prolonged period of market adjustments, with an emphasis on self-sufficiency and resource value reassessment [9]

Core Points - The meeting focused on studying and implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, emphasizing the importance of integrating this with the study of "Xi Jinping: The Governance of China, Volume V" [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the need for high-quality development and the establishment of a modern industrial system, along with deepening reform and opening up to enhance development vitality [3] - Emphasis was placed on regional coordinated development, green low-carbon development, cultural confidence, and improving people's livelihoods as key areas for progress [3] Summary by Categories - **Political Responsibility and Leadership**: The need for political responsibility and strong organizational leadership was emphasized to ensure the implementation of the 20th Central Committee's spirit in Zhengzhou [3] - **High-Quality Development**: Focus on achieving breakthroughs in high-quality development and modern industrial systems [3] - **Reform and Opening Up**: The importance of deepening reform and enhancing development dynamics was highlighted [3] - **Regional Development**: The meeting stressed the need for coordinated regional development to enhance urban capabilities and competitiveness [3] - **Green Development**: A commitment to green low-carbon development was reiterated, aiming for progress in building a beautiful Zhengzhou [3] - **Cultural Confidence**: The importance of cultural self-confidence in creating a modern humanistic city was discussed [3] - **Social Welfare**: The meeting addressed the need for progress in improving and safeguarding people's livelihoods to promote common prosperity [3] - **Governance Modernization**: Focus on achieving new results in social governance modernization was emphasized [3] - **Safety and Security**: The need to balance development and safety to enhance urban safety was highlighted [3] - **Party Discipline**: The importance of strict party governance to foster a clean political environment was stressed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in shaping investment strategies, highlighting the shift towards a modern industrial system and the prioritization of technological self-reliance and innovation as key drivers for economic growth [1][12]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system and sets "technological self-reliance" as the second development goal, providing quantifiable targets for the capital market [1]. Historical Context - Previous five-year plans have led to the emergence of significant industries: - The 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) focused on seven strategic emerging industries including energy conservation and new energy vehicles [2]. - The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) emphasized supply-side reforms [3]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) introduced a focus on carbon neutrality and supply chain security [4]. Investment Opportunities - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive investment in strategic emerging industries, with a focus on sectors such as new energy, biotechnology, and high-end equipment [7][12]. - Historical data shows that industries highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan have outperformed the market, with significant excess returns observed in sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [6][8]. Policy Tools - The article outlines the policy tools prepared for the "15th Five-Year Plan": 1. Fiscal measures to enhance macroeconomic policies and increase central government spending. 2. Monetary policies aimed at developing direct financing and financial markets. 3. Industrial policies to boost innovation and new productivity [4]. Strategic Focus Areas - The "15th Five-Year Plan" identifies key strategic areas for investment, including: - Advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor industries as core components of the hard technology sector [15][18]. - Emphasis on the integration of technology and industry, with a focus on scaling innovations [12][16]. ETF Recommendations - Specific ETFs are highlighted as investment vehicles to capitalize on the trends outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan": 1. Chip ETF focusing on semiconductor industries. 2. AI ETF targeting companies in the artificial intelligence sector. 3. Robotics ETF covering the entire robotics supply chain [18][29]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the "15th Five-Year Plan" is not just a domestic economic strategy but also a framework for global capital reallocation, with significant implications for investment in technology and innovation [28].

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a crucial period for achieving socialist modernization and will serve as a guideline for national economic and industrial development [2][5] - The plan aims to address challenges such as economic slowdown and insufficient domestic demand, particularly in the real estate sector, which affects over 60 related industries [5][6] - The plan emphasizes the transformation of traditional industries towards smart and green development, leveraging new technologies to stimulate demand [5][6] Group 2 - The plan includes comprehensive measures to boost domestic demand, focusing on increasing consumer income and encouraging savings to flow into capital markets [6][7] - The manufacturing sector is currently facing challenges, with the manufacturing PMI below 50, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remains above 50, indicating expansion [6] - Investment in traditional sectors is expected to stabilize, while new strategic projects worth approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and 410 billion yuan are anticipated to be launched [7][8] Group 3 - Emerging industries, particularly humanoid robots, are projected to become a significant growth area, with sales increasing by 29% year-on-year in the first three quarters [10] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of technological self-reliance and the development of future industries, including AI, semiconductor chips, and deep-sea technology [11][12] - The capital market is becoming a primary destination for household savings, with a notable shift from real estate investments to equity investments [13][14] Group 4 - The public fund market is experiencing a resurgence, with significant inflows and a growing number of funds being issued, reflecting increased investor confidence [14][16] - The shift from real estate to equity investments is expected to reshape wealth accumulation strategies, emphasizing the importance of holding quality stocks or funds [15][16] - The current market environment is seen as an opportunity for investors to actively engage in quality stock and fund investments to capitalize on the ongoing bull market [16]

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) showing a slight decline, while certain stocks within the sector are performing well. The ETF has reached a record high in size, indicating strong investor interest and potential growth in the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 7, the Aerospace ETF (159227) has a decline of 0.52% and a trading volume of 123 million yuan, maintaining its position as the largest in its category [1]. - The current size of the Aerospace ETF (159227) is 1.79 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - A team of Chinese scientists has successfully completed ground testing of inflatable, reconfigurable modules for a new space manufacturing platform, which is a significant step towards large-scale industrial production in orbit [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the aerospace and defense industry is expected to maintain its growth due to the iteration of aviation equipment, the release of guided equipment demand, and the introduction of new domain and quality equipment during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The increasing complexity of geopolitical situations is driving demand for specialized equipment, with domestic manufacturers having advantages in performance and pricing, which is likely to enhance China's global market share in specialized equipment [1].

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 7 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 1.2 后市展望： 外围市场方面，美国总统特朗普周三表示股市将创下更多"历史新高"，必 须尽快重启政府，美股有所反弹，美国最高法院多名法官质疑特朗普关税政策， 认为其关税政策已超越职权范围。国内方面，9 月经济数据显示基本面压力进一 步加深，社零消费、固定资产投资等均低于预期，固定资产投资同比增速由正转 负，房地产投资跌幅进一步扩大，有待政策提振。政策方面，四中全会公报上确 认了十五五规划内容，提振信心的同时也为未来市场风格带来政策指引。流动性 方面，两融余额持续 ...