当地时间5月10日下午，印巴停火协议正式生效，冲突期间巴基斯坦空军战果丰硕。据悉，巴基斯坦为 我国主要武器装备出口国。此外，5月11日，人民日报刊文《加快解放和发展新质战斗力》。 智通财经APP获悉，华泰证券指出，军工上游信息化、新材料等上游领域的部分标的在需求、订单甚至 业绩层面已出现明显好转迹象，或表明军工板块基本面已进入反弹阶段。我们维持"一主两率"投资框 架，建议关注信息化、新材料、航空发动机、新质新域方向。 开源证券此前发布研报称，全球军事力量再平衡将给资本市场带来更多的不确定性，资产的"地缘风险 溢价"或导致军工股避险属性的估值重估。华福证券则表示，再次强调军工具备超强内贸属性，且国际 形势对我国军工强实力的验证或为军贸奠定长逻辑基础，25-27年在多重催化下内需外需均增长幅度巨 大，发展军工或为未来重中之重。 军工板块相关港股： 中信证券研报称，自4月下旬克什米尔枪击事件发生以来，印巴边境局势持续升温。 回顾历史，双方关于克什米尔的领土争端由来已久，冲突时有发生，但通常能较快平息。 着眼当下，印巴虽展现强硬姿态，但或均无意扩大冲突，其他国家也积极呼吁双方保持克制。 展望后续，短期内，印巴紧张态势 ...

医药｜盈利能力改善，优选创新龙头 20250509 摘要 • 2024 年生物制药板块收入企稳回升，但利润承压；化学制剂板块降本增 效显著，剔除不可比公司后 A 股营收同比增长 5%，扣非净利润增长 24%，主要受益于创新品种放量和 BD 里程碑收入。 • 创新药企业进入高速发展收获期，样本医院数据显示收入同比增速达 60%，2019-2024 年药品注册证书数量显著增加，头部企业运营效率提 升，Biotech 公司业绩加速放量，规模效应显现，盈利能力改善。 • 2025 年一季度，医药基金及非医药基金对化学制剂及其他生物制剂重仓 显著增加，创新药公司受关注度提升，医药板块整体估值虽有修复，但仍 处于近几年底部，存在投资机会。 • 2025 年一季度，甘李药业胰岛素产品提价，净利润同比增长 100%，通 化东宝降价，净利润下滑 49%，主要受新一轮胰岛素集采续约影响，国产 胰岛素企业报价积极。 • 2025 年一季度，荣昌生物、君实等创新药及生物制剂公司亏损收窄，核 心产品上市加速盈利能力提升，预计未来三年内将呈现良好发展趋势。 Q&A 2024 年和 2025 年一季度医药板块的整体盈利情况如何？ 根据 2 ...

Group 1 - Apple concept stocks have shown significant gains, with Sunny Optical (02382) up 6.13% to HKD 68.35, AAC Technologies (02018) up 5.44% to HKD 38.75, BYD Electronics (00285) up 5.7% to HKD 35.25, GoerTek (01415) up 4.33% to HKD 22.9, and Q Technology (01478) up 4.48% to HKD 6.76 [1] - A significant consensus has been reached between China and the US, with both sides agreeing to establish a China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and a joint statement is expected to be released on May 12 [1] - According to Cinda Securities, high-quality domestic consumer electronics stocks have seen substantial corrections since the imposition of tariff policies, indicating a potential for valuation recovery if tariffs do not develop irrationally [1] Group 2 - The upcoming "618" e-commerce promotion event has led to a price reduction for the Apple iPhone, with the iPhone 16 Pro 128GB version being offered at a discounted price of RMB 5499 after various promotions [2] - The iPhone 16 Pro 128GB version has reportedly sold out on the Apple Store official flagship store shortly after the price reduction announcement [2]

建筑装饰 LPR 下调 10BP，流动性宽松助力项目推进 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20250506-20250509） 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 2025 年 05 月 11 日 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+1.99%，沪深 300 指数+2.00%，相对收益为-0.02pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为 装饰幕墙（+7.25%）、生态园林（+5.94%）、基建民企（+4.84%）， 对应行业内三个公司：创兴资源（+21.55%）、ST 花王（+19.7 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭 主业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推 进》，2025.4.29 2.《煤炭周报：宏观预期强化，重 视板块底部布局》，2025.4.27 3.《煤炭周报：煤价震荡寻底，关 注板块红利属性》，2025.4.20 4.《煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负 ， 静 待 后 续 需 求 改 善 》， 2025.4.18 5.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回 购增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 煤炭周报: 板块业绩有望筑底， 寻找相对确定性机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 煤炭开采 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 25Q1 业 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a trend of decreasing volume but increasing prices, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing revenue and net profit growth despite a decline in overall industry production [2][5][13] - Brand building has become crucial for all liquor companies, especially for small and medium enterprises, which can seek growth through regional market focus, transforming into specialty wineries, and enhancing consumer interaction [2][5][16] - The rise of low-alcohol and fruit wines poses challenges for traditional liquor companies, which must prioritize product quality and innovation to adapt to changing consumer preferences [2][22][25] Industry Trends - The overall production capacity of the liquor industry has been declining, with current capacity at about 30% of its peak in 2016, reflecting a shift in consumer preference towards premium and aged liquors [5][6][8] - The competition is increasingly characterized by a "survival of the fittest" dynamic, where leading brands grow at the expense of smaller players, leading to a phenomenon described as "this consumes that" [5][13] - The market is witnessing a bifurcation where high-end brands are facing price adjustments, with Moutai's actual transaction price dropping nearly 30% from its peak [14][29] Company Strategies - Companies like Gujinggong and Jinshiyuan have benefited from the industry's increasing concentration and have successfully leveraged regional economic growth to enhance their market positions [16][17] - Watering brands like Shui Jing Fang are focusing on brand building and product quality, positioning themselves well in the competitive landscape [19] - Small liquor companies are encouraged to either dominate a specific regional market or transform into local wineries that resonate with community sentiments, potentially leading to profitable operations [20][21] Consumer Behavior - Consumers increasingly demand specific brands when purchasing liquor, indicating a strong brand loyalty that drives market dynamics [12][19] - The perception of liquor as a premium product has led to a decline in the acceptance of non-branded or lower-quality offerings, emphasizing the importance of brand reputation [6][8][12] - The younger generation's shift towards lighter alcoholic beverages and fruit wines presents both a challenge and an opportunity for traditional liquor companies to innovate and adapt [22][23][25] Investment Outlook - The liquor sector is currently undergoing a valuation correction after a period of rapid growth, with investors advised to approach the market with a rational mindset based on their investment goals [27][29] - The potential for mergers and acquisitions in the liquor industry remains high, with significant interest in brands that can demonstrate strong growth potential [28][29] - The evolving economic landscape and changing consumer preferences necessitate a careful evaluation of investment strategies within the liquor sector [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a "pro-cyclical + high dividend" strategy, highlighting that policy measures are driving valuation recovery in the sector. The average dividend yield for the sector is currently at 4.49%, which remains historically high compared to the risk-free rate represented by the 10-year government bond yield [3][5] - The report anticipates that the improvement in the sector will be catalyzed by policy support, particularly from the real estate and consumer sectors. The static price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is only 0.65 times, indicating a significant safety margin with an implied non-performing loan (NPL) ratio exceeding 15% [3][5] - Recommended stocks include regional banks benefiting from policy expectations (Chengdu, Changsha, Suzhou, Changshu, Ningbo) and high-dividend stocks (ICBC, CCB, Shanghai Bank) [3][5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - As of the end of April, 42 listed banks reported a year-on-year decline in net profit of 1.2% for Q1 2025, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [5] - The revenue growth rate for listed banks in Q1 2025 fell to -1.7%, down 1.8 percentage points from 2024. Net interest income decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-interest income showed signs of stabilization [5][9] Market Trends - In April 2025, the banking sector experienced a slight decline of 0.06%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, ranking fifth among 30 sectors [3] Macro and Liquidity Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. The new RMB loans in March 2025 increased by 3.64 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.4% [3][5] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of listed banks remains stable, with the NPL ratio decreasing by 1 basis point to 1.22% in Q1 2025. The provision coverage ratio decreased by 2.13 percentage points to 238% [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant inflow of medium to long-term funds into the banking sector in China during the first quarter of 2024, driven by increased investments from Central Huijin, social security funds, and insurance companies, leading to a positive performance in bank stocks [1][4]. Group 1: Central Huijin's Investment Activities - Central Huijin increased its holdings in multiple ETFs, which brought additional passive funds into the banking sector, particularly benefiting high-dividend bank stocks [1][2]. - As of the end of Q1 2024, Central Huijin held significant positions in eight bank stocks, including major state-owned banks and several national joint-stock banks, with notable increases in ETF holdings [2]. Group 2: Social Security Fund's Holdings - By the end of Q1 2024, the social security fund had significant holdings in five bank stocks, with an overall increase in the number of shares held compared to the beginning of the year, particularly in Changshu Bank [3]. Group 3: Insurance Companies' Activities - Insurance companies have shown strong interest in bank stocks, with several firms collectively acquiring stakes in five listed banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, indicating a robust inflow of funds into the banking sector [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The valuation recovery of bank stocks is influenced by macroeconomic policies and asset quality improvements, with expectations for continued interest in high-dividend strategies in the short term [5].

证券研究报告/策略专题报告 2025 年 05 月 08 日 * [10] M. C. 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 2025 年一季报业绩变化有何投资指引？ 三、价格压力整体持续，政策支持下部分行业"困境反转" 2023 年以来我国经济需求侧增速不足的问题逐渐凸显，造成上市公司"增量不增利"。 2025 年 Q1 共有 23 个行业销售净利率低于 10%，其中有 13 个行业低于 5%，地产板 块整体亏损。边际变化方面，25 年一季度有 19 个行业归母净利润增速高于营收增速。 上游周期方面，钢铁、有色、基础化工等行业出现"困境反转"，利润改善明显。中 游制造方面，一季度受益于需求增加以及"特朗普关税"预期带来的抢出口，机械设 备与汽车行业利润率持续上行。电力设备当前结构性产能过剩仍存在，营收有所提升 但利润下滑。下游消费方面，受益于消费券以旧换新等终端消费政策支持，家用电器 板块 25 年一季度归母净利润同比增长 25.12%，业绩大幅超预期。 四、PB-ROE 视角下，部分行业存在估值修复潜力 执业证书编号：S074052012 ...

【长江电新】20250507-宁德时代更新：港股上市临近，重视估值修复窗口！ 事件：5月6日，宁德时代公告了港交所主板上市聆讯资料集，港股发行窗口临近，我们认为宁德时代的H股发行将 体现其全球影响力，且在外资定价体系下，有望牵引A股估值修复，建议重视这一重要窗口期！ 1、为何宁德时代H股上市窗口需要重视？ 2）横向比较看，在全球市场宁德时代可比的锂电公司是LGES，其最新市值为3912亿元，为宁德时代A股市值的 37%，但LGES的出货仅是宁德时代的25%左右，竞争力和盈利差距更大（LGES在25Q1营业利润19.9亿人民币，若 剔除美国IRA补贴，则为-4.4亿元），即宁德时代是绝对低估的。 3）宁德时代有望通过H股发行，呈现全球资本市场影响力，伴随发行结果陆续推进，我们预计可能的催化一是公 司的基石投资人和配售资金将以国内产业资本、海外财团资金为主，体现对公司长期价值的认可；二是配售较A股 的折扣不会太高，也将提振信心。 2、从基本面出发再来谈一谈宁德时代的价值。 从短期的维度看，市场对宁德时代的分歧一是美国敞口，但从24Q4、25Q1报表看，公司已经将美国敞口降到小个 位数的水平，年内通过库存确收、26 ...