特朗普认为中国进行稀土管制，是在于中方的心情不好，特朗普表示并不希望中国经济陷入困境，美国 是想帮助中国，而不是伤害中国。除了特朗普公开缓解紧张气氛之外，美国副总统万斯也是公开喊话， 宣称呼吁中国选择理性的道路，同时重申美国也会做理性的谈判者，从特朗普和万斯的表态来看，如今 美国再次是寻求通过磋商和谈判来解决分歧，为此在释放善意的时候，已经不再提及所谓的加征100% 关税的事情，就跟没有发生过一样。 美国总统特朗普在周五和周日的公开表态有着截然相反的表现，特朗普在10月10日的时候，突然宣布要 从11月1日开始，对于中国的产品加征100%的额外关税，从特朗普发布的长文来看，美国加征的100% 关税是建立在现有的关税税率的基础上，因此100%是指另外的关税。对于突然加征关税，特朗普在10 月12日的表态和10月10日的威胁已经有很大的不同，外界普遍认为特朗普已经是有公开释放善意的节 奏。根据美国媒体报道，特朗普在12日通过社交媒体发文，宣称不用担心中方，一切都会好起来。 实际上特朗普在威胁加征100%关税的时候，并没有签署相关的行政命令，而仅仅是通过社交媒体公布 而已，显然也是暴露了特朗普的意气用事。如今的美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price may first decline and then rebound in the remaining days of October. The SHFE Aluminum 2511 contract may approach the level of around 19,800, with a high - level resistance at 21,300, showing a high - level wide - range oscillation [5][11]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply of bauxite is expected to be generally sufficient, and the price will fluctuate between 70 - 75 US dollars per ton. The supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve significantly. The alumina market may see some production cuts and maintenance due to falling prices. The growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited, and the export shows certain resilience [9]. - The start - up rates of various aluminum processing sectors have been slightly adjusted, with the start - up rate of recycled aluminum rising against the trend. The "Golden September and Silver October" is lackluster, and the short - term upward space for the start - up rate is restricted [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price may first decline and then rebound in the remaining days of October. The SHFE Aluminum 2511 contract may approach the level of around 19,800, with a high - level resistance at 21,300, showing a high - level wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to consider holding medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The support level of SHFE Aluminum 2511 in the coming week was about 20,500, and the resistance level was about 20,900, for short - term trading [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see. Spot enterprises for hedging are advised to maintain an appropriate inventory and consider replenishing inventory when the price is below 20,000 yuan [8]. 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Raw Material Market - **Bauxite Market**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of bauxite is expected to be generally sufficient, and the price will fluctuate between 70 - 75 US dollars per ton. The domestic mine governance policy will have a long - term constraint on domestic ore, and the supply is difficult to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of October 10, the domestic alumina production capacity utilization rate is at a high level since 2022. With the continuous decline of alumina prices, some high - cost enterprises may have production cuts and maintenance [9]. 3.3.2 Production - As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling, and the room for further production increase is limited. The net increase in production throughout the year is expected to be less than 500,000 tons [9]. 3.3.3 Supply and Demand - **Demand**: The start - up rates of various aluminum processing sectors have been slightly adjusted. The start - up rate of recycled aluminum has risen against the trend, while the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The "Golden September and Silver October" is lackluster, and the short - term upward space for the start - up rate is restricted [10][22][23]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased by about 10% compared with last week, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 24%. The LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [10][16]. 3.3.4 Profit - **Alumina Profit**: The current average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan per ton, and the profit is about 70 yuan per ton [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,800 yuan per ton, at a relatively high level [11]. 3.3.5 Market Expectation - The additional 100% tariff and export control announced by Trump will cause metals to continue to decline at the beginning of next week to digest the negative impact of tariffs [11]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of domestic bauxite are generally stable, while the prices of imported ores have declined. The price of alumina has continued to decline since mid - August, and it is difficult to change the situation before new capacity control measures are introduced. The price of electrolytic aluminum has risen slightly [12]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of domestic port bauxite has slightly declined, and the inventory of alumina has continued to accumulate. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased, and the LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [14][16]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - In the first week of October, the start - up rates of various aluminum processing sectors have been slightly adjusted. The start - up rate of recycled aluminum has risen against the trend, while the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The "Golden September and Silver October" is lackluster, and the short - term upward space for the start - up rate is restricted [22][23]. 3.7 Futures and Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of SHFE aluminum is weak [27]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,140 yuan per ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][35]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has continued to rise slightly. Since June, both the long and short camps have increased their positions, and the overall market is still relatively strong [37]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has increased slightly compared with before the holiday. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background has rebounded, while the funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises are in a stalemate between long and short. The main funds are slightly bullish, but the market is volatile [39].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods by Trump led to a significant market reaction, with the S&P 500 index losing $700 billion in just three minutes, highlighting the immediate impact of trade tensions on the U.S. economy [1][3]. Market Reaction - The rapid decline in the S&P 500 index reflects investor fears regarding the consequences of a renewed trade war, reminiscent of the 2025 tariff increases that doubled prices of Chinese goods in U.S. supermarkets [3][12]. - Retail giants like Walmart and Target expressed concerns that continued tariffs could lead to shortages of Christmas goods, as over 30% of their inventory consists of Chinese products [9][10]. U.S. Government Response - Following Trump's announcement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer quickly softened the stance, indicating a desire for "peaceful trade" and suggesting a wait-and-see approach [3][7]. - Internal conflicts within the Trump administration emerged, with various cabinet members expressing concerns over stock market stability and agricultural sector backlash [7][16]. China's Countermeasures - China responded swiftly with three countermeasures, including rare earth export controls, equivalent sanctions on U.S. shipping fees, and an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, which could significantly impact U.S. tech companies [5][14]. - The Chinese government emphasized its readiness to handle challenges, indicating a strong position in the ongoing trade dispute [7][10]. Impact on U.S. Agriculture and Consumers - U.S. farmers are facing severe challenges, with many unable to sell their soybeans to China, leading to calls for an end to the tariff war from agricultural associations [5][12]. - Research from Yale University indicated that the trade war has increased annual expenses for American households by approximately $3,443, leading to widespread consumer frustration [5][12]. Long-term Implications - The trade conflict has evolved into a war of attrition, with both sides facing significant economic pressures, but the U.S. appears to be more vulnerable due to internal divisions and public dissent [14][17]. - The potential long-term effects on U.S. technology firms are concerning, as Chinese manufacturers begin to shift towards domestic chip production, threatening the U.S. semiconductor industry [10][14].

Group 1 - The U.S. has no intention of engaging in a trade war with China unless necessary, as stated by U.S. Trade Representative Tai [1] - Trump's tariff policy has followed a pattern of extreme pressure followed by flexible adjustments, which has led to increased uncertainty in global trade policies [3] - The uncertainty index reached its highest level since 2009 following Trump's "reciprocal tariff" executive order [3] Group 2 - China's recent announcement to expand controls on rare earth products directly targets U.S. strategic interests, as the country controls 70% of global rare earth production and 90% of refining capacity [5][6] - The U.S. has a limited stockpile of rare earths that can only last 4 to 6 months, highlighting its dependency on China for these critical materials [5][8] Group 3 - The tariff threats from Trump have faced increasing domestic opposition, with research indicating a rising risk of economic recession in the U.S. [8] - The tariffs have led to significant price increases in consumer goods, with some items rising over 15%, impacting small businesses due to soaring supply chain costs [8] Group 4 - The rapid change in U.S. stance reveals its passive position in the strategic game, as China has implemented a series of announcements targeting key sectors [10] - China's classification of rare earths as dual-use materials complicates U.S. efforts to circumvent controls through third parties [10] Group 5 - The interdependence between the U.S. and China has become a double-edged sword, with significant portions of U.S. military and technology sectors relying on Chinese rare earths [12] - The recent developments indicate a shift in negotiation dynamics, with the U.S. attempting to retain leverage while acknowledging the reality of mutual dependencies [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has strengthened export controls on rare earth materials and related items in response to U.S. trade policies, asserting that these measures are not prohibitive but regulatory, aimed at maintaining national security and international stability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced two measures to strengthen export controls on rare earth materials and technologies, including five types of heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1][2]. - The spokesperson emphasized that China's export controls are not a ban and that compliant applications will be approved, highlighting a commitment to facilitating legitimate trade [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Trade Policies - The U.S. has been criticized for its unilateral trade measures, including imposing a 100% tariff and export controls on key software, which the Chinese government views as a double standard [2][4]. - The U.S. has over 3,000 items on its export control list compared to China's 900, indicating a significant disparity in trade restrictions [2]. Group 3: Response to U.S. Actions - In response to U.S. maritime and shipping policies, China will impose special port fees on U.S. vessels starting October 14, which is seen as a necessary defensive measure to protect its industries and ensure fair competition [4][5]. - The Chinese government has expressed a desire for dialogue and cooperation, urging the U.S. to correct its actions and return to negotiations [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has strengthened export controls on rare earth materials and related items in response to U.S. tariffs and trade policies, emphasizing that these measures are not prohibitive but regulatory, aimed at maintaining national security and international stability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce announced two measures to strengthen export controls on rare earth-related items and technologies, including five types of heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1]. - The spokesperson clarified that China's export controls are not a ban and that compliant applications will be approved, highlighting a commitment to facilitating legitimate trade [3]. Group 2: U.S. Trade Policies - The U.S. has been accused of using discriminatory practices in its export controls, with over 3,000 items on its control list compared to China's 900, which the Chinese government claims disrupts international trade order and supply chain stability [2]. - The U.S. has recently implemented a series of restrictions against Chinese entities, including adding them to export control lists and imposing high tariffs, which China views as an incorrect approach to bilateral relations [2]. Group 3: Response to U.S. Actions - In response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese shipping, China has decided to impose special port fees on U.S. vessels, which is seen as a necessary defensive measure to protect its industries and ensure fair competition in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets [4][5]. - The Chinese government has expressed a desire for dialogue and cooperation, urging the U.S. to correct its actions and return to a path of negotiation [5].

本报讯商务部新闻发言人12日就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问。有记者问：美东时间10月10 日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征100%关税，并对所有关键软 件实施出口管制，请问商务部对此有何评论？ 对此，商务部发言人表示，10月9日，中方发布了关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，这是中国政府 依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制体系的正常行为。中国作为负责任大国，始终坚定维护自身国家安全 和国际共同安全，始终秉持公正、合理、非歧视的原则立场，审慎适度实施出口管制措施。美方有关表 态是典型的"双重标准"。长期以来，美方泛化国家安全，滥用出口管制，对华采取歧视性做法，对半导 体设备、芯片等众多产品实施单边长臂管辖措施。美方管制清单物项超过3000项，而中方出口管制清单 物项仅900余项。美方使用出口管制最低含量规则由来已久，低至0%。美方相关举措严重损害企业正当 合法权益，严重冲击国际经贸秩序，严重破坏全球产供链安全稳定。 商务部发言人称，特别是9月中美马德里经贸会谈以来，短短20多天时间，美方持续新增出台一系列对 华限制措施，将多家中国实体列入出口管制实体清单和特别指定国民清单；通过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to impose a 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 has led to significant market volatility, reminiscent of the global market crash in April due to tariff disputes. However, the current market decline is relatively contained and shows resilience against the sudden negative news [1] Market Impact - The financial market has exhibited panic but has not experienced a collapse, indicating a degree of market resilience in the face of tariff threats [1] - A-share market is expected to face short-term shocks, but the long-term market dynamics remain unchanged, suggesting that the market is still in a bullish phase [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment in the A-share market remains high, with the potential for sharp declines during a bull market seen as both a risk and an opportunity [1] - The "stabilization fund" introduced in the second quarter has played a positive role in stabilizing the market, and it is expected to be effective again in the event of sudden market drops [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government firmly opposes unilateral trade measures and high tariffs imposed by the U.S., emphasizing that it does not wish to engage in a trade war but will defend its legitimate development rights if necessary [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Measures - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China's tightening of rare earth export regulations, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [1]. - Since mid-September, the U.S. has introduced a series of restrictive measures against China, which has significantly disrupted the normal trade order and harmed China's interests [1][4]. Group 2: China's Position - China asserts that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions to safeguard national security and are in line with international practices [3]. - The Chinese government maintains a transparent and predictable approach to trade, welcoming compliant trade applications while not issuing licenses for military-related products [3]. Group 3: Future of China-U.S. Trade Relations - The relationship between China and the U.S. is at a critical juncture, with China advocating for dialogue based on mutual respect and equality, while the U.S. is perceived as reacting emotionally and applying double standards [5]. - Historical experiences suggest that cooperation benefits both parties, while conflict leads to mutual harm, indicating that pressure tactics against China are unlikely to succeed [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent drop in copper and aluminum prices is a short-term liquidity shock due to renewed U.S. tariff threats, but the long-term upward trend for copper remains intact [5] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight to shortage due to frequent supply disruptions and the U.S. entering a monetary easing cycle [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper among others for potential investment opportunities [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has raised market risk aversion [9] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.44% compared to the index's 0.37% [11][12] - The report notes that copper, magnetic materials, and rare earths performed well, while copper materials and cobalt lagged behind [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 27.81, with a weekly change of 2.98 [21] - The PB for the sector is 3.33, reflecting a change of 0.36 [21] 4. Copper - London copper prices increased by 1.89%, while Shanghai copper prices rose by 3.37% [26] - The report indicates that copper smelting margins are negative, with a loss of 2738 yuan/ton [26] 5. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 3.09%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.61% [38] - The report notes that aluminum smelting margins improved to 5133 yuan/ton [38] 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices remained stable at 73550 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 2.21% to 839 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium smelting margins are negative, with losses reported [74] 7. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 4.19% to 19.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices rose by 2.87% to 359000 yuan/ton [87] - The report highlights that cobalt supply may tighten due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [87]